Michigan XC Speed Ratings

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#11 Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
#19 Royal Oak Shrine
#22 Allen Park Cabrini

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	43	1.1	89	95+
2	Royal Oak Shrine	52	1.9	11	95+
3	Allen Park Cabrini	67	3.0		95+
4	Plymouth Christian Academy	103	4.0
5	Birmingham Roeper	144	5.2
6	Southfield Christian	152	6.0
7	Academy of the Sacred Heart	162	6.8
8	Austin Catholic	209	8.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ava Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	1.1
2	11	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	2.1
3	10	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	4.6
4	10	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran Westland	4.7
5	12	Leah Zarrilli	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	4.8
6	11	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	4.9
7	11	Sarah Goodwin	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	7.7
8	9	Louisa Denks	Royal Oak Shrine	8.5
9	11	Rose Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	9.6
10	12	Karis Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	12.6
11	9	Josephine Malcolm	Royal Oak Shrine	13.6
12	11	Grace Kendziuk	Allen Park Cabrini	13.6
13	12	Morgan McNally	Academy of the Sacred Heart	15.6
14	11	Annaliese Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	15.8
15	12	Grace Ligon	Southfield Christian	17.0
16	10	Maya Ferguson	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	17.1
17	11	Isobel Malcolm	Royal Oak Shrine	17.3
18	11	Tess Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	19.0
19	12	Nicole Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	19.3
20	9	Kassie Kozlo	Allen Park Cabrini	19.3
21	9	Sydney Erickson	Lutheran Westland	21.8
22	12	Leah Kroge	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	22.0
23	10	Clara Groen	Plymouth Christian Academy	22.8
24	12	Kaitlyn Jabczenski	Allen Park Cabrini	23.6
25	12	Soleil Weaver	Plymouth Christian Academy	24.0
26	11	Chloe Surhigh	Royal Oak Shrine	24.5
27	12	Emma Smith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	28.2
28	10	Sarah Abazi	Southfield Christian	28.9
29	12	Ella Bush	Riverview Gabriel Richard	30.9
30	11	Addison Geisler	New Haven Merritt Academy	31.7

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#13 Marine City Cardinal Mooney
#14 Royal Oak Shrine
#17 Lutheran Westland
#22 Auburn Hills Oakland Christian

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Any combination of these top-25 outfits could make it, so get yourself into the top-15 and guarantee a spot! And if not, don’t give up.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Royal Oak Shrine	84	2.1	28	93
2	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	84	2.3	34	83
3	Lutheran Westland	87	2.4	25	80
4	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	93	3.2	13	44
5	Riverview Gabriel Richard	136	5.1
6	Birmingham Roeper	149	6.0
7	Plymouth Christian Academy	162	7.0
8	Detroit Frederick Douglass	183	8.0
9	Allen Park Cabrini	214	9.1
10	Austin Catholic	227	9.8
11	New Haven Merritt Academy	321	11.0
12	Detroit Davis Aerospace	362	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	1.5
2	12	Tyler Lenn	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	1.6
3	10	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	4.6
4	10	Rich Fanti	Riverview Gabriel Richard	5.3
5	12	Isaac Zammit	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	5.8
6	9	Vern Clyne	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	7.4
7	10	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland	7.8
8	10	Joel Johnson	Detroit Frederick Douglass	8.4
9	10	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	9.2
10	10	Andrew Lopez	Royal Oak Shrine	10.0
11	12	Evan Sumner	Plymouth Christian Academy	10.5
12	11	Tom Shafer	Lutheran Westland	10.7
13	12	Luke Douglas	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	11.9
14	9	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard	13.5
15	10	Goni Wong	Birmingham Roeper	15.7
16	12	Tommy Abazi	Southfield Christian	19.4
17	11	Nico DiPonio	Austin Catholic	19.7
18	12	Adrian Smith	Detroit Frederick Douglass	19.9
19	12	Max Procissi	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	20.3
20	12	Jeffrey McGuire	Lutheran Westland	20.4
21	9	Uzziel Thomassen	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	21.1
22	10	Dominic Barretto	Riverview Gabriel Richard	22.8
23	11	Evan Jacobs	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	23.1
24	10	Caesar Soma	Royal Oak Shrine	23.4
25	10	Andrew Abramowicz	Lutheran Westland	24.8
26	10	William Storrie	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	26.5
27	12	Joshua Reddypogu	Southfield Christian	26.8
28	12	Nathan Betke	Lutheran Westland	27.9
29	10	Carter Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	31.4
30	11	Ralph Kaleniecki	Allen Park Cabrini	31.8

Uncategorized

2023 Regional Projections: Anchor Bay Regional

October 25, 2023October 25, 2023 mixcspeedratings

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#22 Croswell-Lexington
#25 Warren Regina
#27 Armada

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

19^th Place in the case of both Armada and St. Clair being the third team.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Croswell-Lexington	58	1.6	45	95+
2	Warren Regina	59	1.7	43	95+
3	Armada	72	3.0	12	71
4	St. Clair	82	3.7		30
5	Macomb Lutheran North	120	5.0
6	Marysville	153	6.3
7	Richmond	160	6.7
8	Marine City	225	8.2
9	Yale	237	8.9
10	Madison Heights Lamphere	279	9.9
11	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	331	11.0
12	Harper Woods	373	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	1.4
2	12	Ava Baltierra	Armada	2.0
3	12	Morgan Newton	Croswell-Lexington	3.3
4	11	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	5.6
5	11	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	6.0
6	12	Kennedy Roskopp	Warren Regina	7.2
7	11	Brynn Hurley	Croswell-Lexington	7.5
8	12	Lilyana Bratt	St. Clair	8.6
9	11	Lillian Rutallie	Marysville	9.4
10	12	Samantha Kook	Armada	9.6
11	11	Natalie Lentine	Warren Regina	11.3
12	9	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	11.7
13	9	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair	14.4
14	11	Lorelei Mahon	Warren Regina	14.8
15	12	Brianna Albers	Richmond	15.4
16	11	Allie Komarowski	St. Clair	17.9
17	12	Gabby Fernandez	Warren Regina	19.7
18	12	Abagayle Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	21.3
19	10	Molly McNabb	St. Clair	21.4
20	10	Pauline Chapman	Richmond	22.1
21	9	Ella Thornton	St. Clair	22.3
22	10	Abigail Denoyer	Armada	23.2
23	12	Eliza Nelson	Croswell-Lexington	25.0
24	12	Casidhe Flesher	Marine City	25.7
25	10	Paulina Chapman	Richmond	25.8
26	11	Isabella LaPerriere	Macomb Lutheran North	26.8
27	12	Ella Deshon	Marysville	27.2
28	10	Aubrey Sargent	St. Clair	27.6
29	9	Avery Stallmann	Macomb Lutheran North	27.9
30	9	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	29.0

Anything Intriguing?

One single point separating Warren Regina and Cros-Lex. I have a feeling the Saddlelites are underrated because of their tough stretch of Kensington then County with a two-day break. On the other hand, the Pioneers are your defending champs with upperclass girls ready to defend that crown.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#19 Yale
#21 St. Clair

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

24^th place behind the usually strong St. Clair and Yale teams.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Yale	37	1.2	76	95+
2	St. Clair	40	1.8	24	95+
3	Macomb Lutheran North	74	3.0		95+
4	Marysville	160	4.8
5	Madison Heights Lamphere	164	5.2
6	Marine City	166	5.5
7	Armada	174	6.5
8	Richmond	206	8.0
9	Croswell-Lexington	237	9.1
10	Harper Woods	261	10.0
11	Detroit East English	318	11.2
12	Center Line	322	11.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brewer Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	1.1
2	12	Blake Ferguson	Yale	3.1
3	12	Giovanni Pardo-Keegan	Yale	3.2
4	12	Acer Campbell	Yale	4.0
5	12	Vinny Schweihofer	St. Clair	4.6
6	12	Dylan Distelrath	St. Clair	5.6
7	12	Anthony Goatley	Madison Heights Lamphere	8.4
8	12	Jamison Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	8.5
9	11	Jerry Westrick	St. Clair	9.8
10	9	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	10.0
11	12	Dylan Schumann	St. Clair	10.4
12	11	Teddy Rutkofske	Yale	14.6
13	11	Wyatt Murtos	Yale	14.9
14	10	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	15.5
15	11	Kale Kovach	Yale	15.6
16	12	Luke Nawrocki	Armada	18.3
17	11	Pete Lutz	Madison Heights Lamphere	19.6
18	10	Brayden Prieskorn	St. Clair	20.6
19	12	Nathan VanderMeulen	Marysville	20.6
20	9	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	20.8
21	11	Korbyn Thornton	St. Clair	21.1
22	12	Alex Robertson	Marine City	21.8
23	10	Ross Wallace	Harper Woods	22.8
24	10	Nolan Korolden	Yale	25.0
25	12	Jayden Robertson	Marine City	26.3
26	11	Georgio Aramouni	Madison Heights Lamphere	26.8
27	9	Javaris Jackson	Harper Woods	28.5
28	11	Grayson Sutherland	Macomb Lutheran North	28.6
29	12	Tyler Buckland	Armada	28.8
30	10	Dalton Ross	Marine City	31.9

Anything Intriguing?

Another year of the perennial Yale/St. Clair battle. They’re gonna start giving this rivalry a name soon. The team from up north has claimed victory in the three matchups at Muskrat, Portage, and Marysville. But the Saints just raced to PR’s from over 50% of their athletes at Metro Beach.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#1 Romeo
#14 Macomb Dakota
#16 Fraser

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

23^rd place, about as deep into these as you’ll get.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	20	1.0	95+	95+
2	Macomb Dakota	75	2.5		95+
3	Fraser	75	2.5		95+
4	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	118	4.1
5	Grosse Pointe South	145	4.9
6	Utica Eisenhower	203	6.4
7	Chippewa Valley	216	7.1
8	Port Huron Northern	237	8.1
9	Grosse Pointe North	243	8.5
10	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	293	10.5
11	L’Anse Creuse North	304	11.3
12	Anchor Bay	304	11.3
13	L’Anse Creuse	337	12.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	1.4
2	10	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	2.5
3	12	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota	3.0
4	10	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	3.5
5	11	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	5.5
6	12	Mariah Belmont	Macomb Dakota	7.0
7	10	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	8.1
8	11	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	8.2
9	11	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	8.9
10	11	Grace Grupido	Fraser	9.0
11	10	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	12.5
12	12	Lauren Thomas	Anchor Bay	14.4
13	12	Remi Flanz	Fraser	15.3
14	10	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	15.5
15	11	Savannah Spangler	Grosse Pointe South	16.8
16	12	Gracie Youngblood	Romeo	17.0
17	11	Charlotte Long	Utica Eisenhower	17.3
18	10	Olivia Cereska	Fraser	17.7
19	12	Sydney Gergics	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	20.0
20	9	Maggie Baginski	Utica Eisenhower	22.5
21	11	Julia Timpa	Macomb Dakota	24.3
22	11	Luciana Rodriguez	Fraser	24.3
23	12	Morgan Deenik	Grosse Pointe South	26.7
24	9	Aubrey Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	27.0
25	11	Chloe Caulfield	Grosse Pointe South	27.5
26	12	Alyssa Ko	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	28.1
27	11	Shelby Stabile	L’Anse Creuse	28.4
28	12	Grace Gutmann	Chippewa Valley	29.0
29	10	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern	29.4
30	9	Lilianna Peace	Chippewa Valley	29.9

Anything Intriguing?

Last year, it was their boys breaking the 36 year drought. Fraser’s girls have a nearly 20 year absence from the State Finals and it appears they’re in prime position to make a return voyage to Brooklyn. Also, does anyone have a clue on these additional qualifiers?

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#8 Romeo
#14 Macomb Dakota
#25 Anchor Bay

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

16^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	59	1.3	71	95+
2	Macomb Dakota	64	1.7	29	95+
3	Anchor Bay	95	3.0		95+
4	Utica Eisenhower	165	4.9
5	Grosse Pointe South	167	4.7
6	L’Anse Creuse North	184	6.2
7	Port Huron Northern	193	7.1
8	Chippewa Valley	209	8.3
9	Grosse Pointe North	220	8.9
10	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	233	10.0
11	Fraser	237	10.0
12	L’Anse Creuse	289	12.3
13	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	303	12.6
14	Warren DeLaSalle	375	14.0
15	Warren Woods Tower	447	15.0
16	Roseville	527	16.4
17	Port Huron	532	16.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Thomas Westphal	Anchor Bay	1.4
2	12	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo	1.8
3	12	Carter Fox	Macomb Dakota	3.6
4	12	Connor Clor	Romeo	4.2
5	12	Tyler Brothers	Utica Eisenhower	6.2
6	12	Dylan Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	7.2
7	12	Simon Davis	Macomb Dakota	8.3
8	12	Jack DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	10.4
9	11	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	11.1
10	12	Luke Oyster	Utica Eisenhower	11.2
11	12	Brandon Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	11.2
12	11	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota	12.0
13	12	Bryce Goodsell	Romeo	13.1
14	12	Zachary Rubicz	Anchor Bay	14.8
15	12	Luke VanderHeuvel	Port Huron Northern	15.9
16	10	Brock Washburn	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	17.9
17	12	Luke Maher	Port Huron Northern	20.5
18	10	Luke Allen	Romeo	21.0
19	12	Michael Magnoli	Romeo	21.1
20	11	Aidan Daly	L’Anse Creuse	21.7
21	12	Jet Miller	Grosse Pointe South	22.5
22	12	Tommy Caulfield	Grosse Pointe South	23.0
23	12	Aidan Leslie	Anchor Bay	24.1
24	11	Greg Vogt	Anchor Bay	24.7
25	11	Caleb Kosel	Grosse Pointe North	25.4
26	10	Eric DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	25.6
27	12	David Rochon	Grosse Pointe North	28.1
28	10	James Brickel	Romeo	28.6
29	10	Lance Edghill	Fraser	29.5
30	12	Gabe Rusch	Anchor Bay	30.0

Anything Intriguing?

The championship rubber match between Macomb Dakota and Romeo. Thanks to an ever-improving Bryce Goodsell, the Bulldogs captured the County crown. Lucas LaMilza and Colton Howell had big efforts in the Cougar win at The Beach. Who steps up to grab this trophy?

Uncategorized

2023 Regional Projections: DeWitt Regional

October 25, 2023October 25, 2023 mixcspeedratings

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#4 Pewamo-Westphalia
#6 Stanton Central Montcalm

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	32	1.1	87	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	38	1.9	13	95+
3	Laingsburg	93	3.0		95+
4	Ovid-Elsie	136	4.1
5	New Lothrop	151	5.2
6	Almont	158	5.7
7	Bath	189	7.2
8	Chesaning	196	8.0
9	Perry	211	8.8
10	Montrose	253	10.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.0
2	11	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.0
3	11	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.1
4	10	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.9
5	9	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.8
6	12	Melanie Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	6.1
7	10	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.1
8	10	Anna Poppema	Bath	8.3
9	11	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	9.1
10	9	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia	10.5
11	9	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	11.0
12	10	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	11.5
13	10	Lilly Rooks	Pewamo-Westphalia	12.2
14	12	Isabell Helman	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.9
15	11	Piper White	Ovid-Elsie	16.0
16	10	Laila Evola	Almont	16.0
17	11	Evelyn Logghe	Laingsburg	18.5
18	10	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm	18.8
19	10	Hazel Burley	Laingsburg	19.3
20	12	Ayla DeLaurier	Almont	22.2
21	12	Kaia Spiess	Ovid-Elsie	22.3
22	12	Taylor Bailey	Chesaning	22.7
23	9	Samantha Gutzman	Laingsburg	22.8
24	11	Addison Rusz	Laingsburg	23.7
25	12	Hannah Oakes	Chesaning	26.0
26	12	Klara Mulcahy	New Lothrop	27.4
27	12	Sara Dammann	New Lothrop	27.6
28	10	Mackenzie Hills	Bath	27.7
29	11	Lexy Andres	New Lothrop	29.4
30	12	Josie Bauman	New Lothrop	31.6

Any Intriguing Battles?

Will Stanton Central Montcalm pull off the upset and bust through the perennially strong Pirate pack? I think there’s a better chance on the girls side, although both are fully capable. Paths to victory include placing three very highly or their 4^th and 5^th picking up some very manageable spots late.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#2 Pewamo-Westphalia
#6 Stanton Central Montcalm
#14 Bath

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Going all the way down to 25^th(!!!) place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	40	1.1	94	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	47	1.9	6	95+
3	Bath	62	3.0		95+
4	Ovid-Elsie	158	4.9
5	Laingsburg	159	4.7
6	New Lothrop	181	6.0
7	Almont	194	6.7
8	Montrose	240	8.6
9	Chesaning	253	9.4
10	Perry	260	9.6
11	Memphis	272	10.5
12	Mt Morris	299	11.9
13	Burton-Bendle	333	12.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Collin Farmer	Pewamo-Westphalia	1.1
2	10	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	2.1
3	12	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.1
4	12	Carter Holmes	Bath	5.2
5	10	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	6.1
6	10	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	6.6
7	9	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.0
8	11	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	9.3
9	9	River Fox	Bath	10.2
10	11	Luke Skidmore	Bath	10.9
11	9	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.5
12	11	Sam Muirhead	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.6
13	12	Andrew Koenigsknecht	Bath	11.8
14	11	Clay Powell	Ovid-Elsie	12.0
15	9	Nolan Mitchell	Pewamo-Westphalia	14.4
16	10	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm	16.0
17	9	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	16.4
18	10	Evan Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	19.0
19	9	Kai Fisher	Memphis	21.6
20	11	Lieu Vincke	New Lothrop	23.7
21	10	Madden Starkweather	Bath	23.8
22	11	Kevin Heslip	New Lothrop	24.7
23	12	Josiah Curry	Stanton Central Montcalm	25.6
24	10	Joshua Miller	Ovid-Elsie	25.9
25	9	Jaxon Hemgesberg	Chesaning	26.3
26	12	Kyle Baldwin	Mt Morris	28.8
27	9	Tyler Rockafellow	Perry	29.1
28	9	Colton Grzyb	Almont	29.4
29	11	Felix Ramirez	Laingsburg	29.9
30	11	James Kelly	Ovid-Elsie	31.0

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#9 DeWitt
#11 St. Johns
#15 Owosso

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

18^th place with these top-heavy squads.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	DeWitt	57	1.4	60	95+
2	St. Johns	60	1.6	40	95+
3	Owosso	83	2.9		95+
4	Mason	137	4.5
5	Haslett	144	5.0
6	Williamston	153	5.6
7	Parma Western	188	7.5
8	Charlotte	191	7.6
9	Corunna	207	8.8
10	Fowlerville	254	10.1
11	Eaton Rapids	277	10.9
12	Jackson Northwest	316	12.0
13	Lansing Eastern	396	13.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.2
2	12	Meghan Ford	Mason	1.8
3	12	Abby Young	St. Johns	3.7
4	11	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	3.8
5	10	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	7.1
6	12	Clara Fletcher	St. Johns	7.3
7	12	Libby Summerland	Owosso	11.0
8	11	Ayla Holben	DeWitt	11.1
9	10	Emma Crandell	Owosso	11.1
10	9	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	11.8
11	11	Autumn Thompson	DeWitt	12.1
12	11	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	12.2
13	10	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	12.3
14	11	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	13.0
15	11	Mia Williams	DeWitt	14.0
16	12	Dora Henry	Haslett	15.2
17	10	Reese Supianoski	Williamston	17.1
18	11	Hayven Thiel	Corunna	17.6
19	9	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna	18.8
20	10	Isabella Taber	DeWitt	19.3
21	11	Julionna West	Owosso	21.0
22	10	Abby Russel	Haslett	22.5
23	11	Ryleigh Hanlin	DeWitt	24.3
24	9	Colette Charchut	Haslett	25.0
25	11	Raquel Curey	Parma Western	26.3
26	11	Natalie Summerland	Owosso	26.6
27	10	Avari Montgomery	Charlotte	27.7
28	12	Analise Chelotti	DeWitt	28.9
29	10	Aubrey Metzger	Mason	29.5
30	10	Delaney Richardson	Fowlerville	30.9

Any Intriguing Battles?

DeWitt has been coming on strong as of late, entering the top-10 through their results from Greater Lansing and the CAAC Blue, the Panthers finishing 2^nd in each. Do they have enough depth to overcome the Redwings’ powerful top-3?

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#24 Parma Western
#26 St. Johns
#27 DeWitt

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th Place, as this seems to be a much better individual region than a team region.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	DeWitt	85	1.7	51	95+
2	Parma Western	87	2.0	29	95+
3	St. Johns	92	2.7	16	78
4	Corunna	108	3.6		29
5	Mason	146	5.5
6	Haslett	148	5.5
7	Eaton Rapids	184	7.0
8	Williamston	220	8.3
9	Fowlerville	233	8.7
10	Charlotte	267	10.0
11	Owosso	305	11.9
12	Lansing Waverly	308	12.1
13	Jackson Northwest	309	12.4
14	Lansing Eastern	329	13.6
15	Lansing Sexton	499	15.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Nate Carmody	Haslett	1.3
2	11	Alex Doneth	Mason	2.8
3	11	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	3.0
4	12	Isaac Staib	St. Johns	4.4
5	11	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	4.7
6	10	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	6.7
7	12	Cooper Singleton	Parma Western	6.8
8	9	Ryan Good	Parma Western	7.9
9	12	Matthew Schrauben	St. Johns	8.1
10	11	Simon Erfourth	Owosso	11.7
11	12	Brennan McKone	DeWitt	12.0
12	11	Conner McCormick	Mason	12.1
13	10	Payton Chandler	Corunna	12.9
14	11	Jack Huntington	Eaton Rapids	15.9
15	11	Lucas Moore	Fowlerville	17.0
16	11	Braylen Eaton	Charlotte	17.3
17	11	Bobby Donley	Corunna	17.3
18	10	Aidan Roka	Corunna	18.4
19	12	Xander Maliska	St. Johns	18.8
20	9	Mason Raborn	DeWitt	22.9
21	12	Kenny Evans	Corunna	23.1
22	11	Jackson Walthorn	DeWitt	23.3
23	11	Ian Goodrich	DeWitt	26.6
24	12	Daniel Wilson	Williamston	27.3
25	10	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	28.2
26	10	Grant Conley	Charlotte	29.2
27	11	Gabi Martinez	Lansing Eastern	30.1
28	9	Will Chelotti	DeWitt	31.0
29	11	Drew Holevac	Eaton Rapids	31.4
30	11	Nathan Szilagyi	Fowlerville	31.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

Can Corunna shock the world again? Last year, the Cavaliers qualified for State as a longshot, coming in with a 6% chance. They’re almost 5x as likely this time around and as expected, just blasted the field at Shiawassee County.