Real quick here with Greater Flint, Oakland County, and Wayne County. No simulations, as that takes leg work earlier in the week (but I will get those rollin’ for the annual Macomb County prediction contest). I realize many of these have divisions and what not, but all three have everyone on the line in one race, so that’s what we’re going with here. No writeups either, as I’ve written 50+ pages of material already this week.
We’ve finally arrived in the prime part of the year. Meets such as Holly, Spartan, Jackson, Cougar Falcon, Otsego Bulldog, Bluejay have been excellent bellwethers, showcasing how different teams from different areas compare against one another. We have one final example of those this week at Portage (which isn’t technically a championship, but I’m gonna label it as our mid-season championship) before embarking on our stretch of county, area, league, and finally – Regionals and State Finals.
If you’ve followed these over the past few years, you may know the gist of these, but let’s break it down once again:
The individual ratings take into account all the meets listed here. There are a few meets missing that I’ll link to, but pretty much any meet with a significant number of athletes will have been calculated. An individual’s rating takes their best 75% of rated races (rounding up, so 4 of 5, 5 of 6, etc.), weighs them with more recent races having a higher weight, then spits out a final rating. The team rankings score those individuals as if they were in a meet against their entire division.
There are a few changes from previous years:
No more ratings of weekday, conference meets
Why? One, often these aren’t raced all out and end up underrating a runner. Two, to lessen my workload. I’d rather concentrate on these rankings and use the weekend invites that are more likely to be raced hard to determine the rankings.
Using the top 75% of races instead of 67%
Why? If I’m gonna use fewer overall races from a runner’s resume, I have to make up for it in some way.
No more individual rankings posted to social media
Why? I hate instances where a runner stagnates or falls back over the course of the season and it’s posted for the world to see. I recognize people want to know where they’re ranked, so just having it on the website is a happy medium.
More writeups focused on the top teams and individuals, rather than just handpicking one each week
I’ve found that when it comes toward state time, I know all the numbers and what a kid might run, but have a tough time pointing toward a narrative. Hopefully writing a little recap and what to look forward to will help in that regard. I started with three for the first rankings, then five this week, and so on.
Posting these one division at a time
If you’ve noticed, I always go Division 4 first, trending towards Division 1. This is done intentionally! Traditional media always focuses on the larger schools. By focusing on the smaller divisions first, they get the love that they might not normally receive. With a bit of free-r time this week, I should get to the Upper Peninsula.
Unfortunately, the injury rule is in place, where if I don’t have a rating from the past month, that runner is taken out. If you’re willing to share (and I can understand why not – someone’s medical situation doesn’t have to be the public’s business) that your athlete or you yourself are healthy/injured, feel free. There are some exceptions based on situations that make sense. Hopefully these don’t rub salt in the wound of someone who’s already hurting.
Now I need to be serious for a minute. These are for fun. If you don’t like these fun rankings, you don’t need to participate, you don’t need to call me names, talk trash to your fellow competitors, or send rude emails. We good here? Enjoy.
Speaking of name calling mentioned at the above, when someone refers to us (you, me, and our fellow obsessive XC fans) as nerds, we gotta embrace it. So this week’s ranking was written for all of us nerds, know-it-all’s, and mathematicians out there in the Michigan XC World. For real though, I really appreciate the work done in these newsletters (here is Saline’s), they always do a great job of highlighting kids that would never get showcased in any newspaper or the work that I do. Thanks for putting these together, Saline and other schools.
GIRLS TEAM RANKINGS
Romeo
Week Three: “Missing a few pieces of what they hope to bring forth in the late season but that hasn’t stopped the Bulldogs from racking up wins at Lamplighter, Averill and in the MAC Red.”
Week Four: Sickness ravaging through northern Macomb County, the Bulldogs were missing three of their top seven at Holly. They still pulled through, thanks to Olivia Purdy holding it down in the 4 spot and Maya Muskan stepping in as their 5.
Jackson was pure domination, but their true strength and grit was shown at Shepherd. The Bulldogs were missing two of their top three girls and STILL won the Elite section. Nailing down the all-important 5th spot was Gracie Youngblood, running her best race since Lamplighter to grab a personal best and clinch the team title.
Ann Arbor Pioneer
Week Three: “I should know better. Each year, it’s a question along the lines of “who will replace Emily/Cookie/Sarah/Dudek/Anne” and each year, it’s an answer with someone new. Lydia Bowman is a girl that’s stepped into a prominent role, running in the mid-18’s and grabbing top-5 finishes at Benzie and John Bruder. Lydia, along with her Pioneer teammates will be racing Friday in Spartan Elite, going against a strong field with the likes of Brighton, Northville, and Holland West Ottawa.”
Week Four: The Pioneer traveling roadshow took its talents to East Lansing last week, rocking another dominating victory. Natalie Mello continued her silent, solid, and consistent start to the year, notching her third consecutive sub-19 with a 18:56, 10th place finish.
Traveled down I-75 for three hours to show some Ohio teams what’s up. Any time you can go to that godforsaken state, enter a championship race, and beat 20 other schools – you’re amazing in my book.
Brighton
Week Three: “The KLAA can be a brutal conference. Coming off a highly competitive Averill Invite then rolling right into a tri containing a top-5 Northville team. The Bulldogs survived with a victory and now head to Spartan on Friday.”
Week Four: The Bulldogs took the momentum from the weekday win and used it to dispel many top-10 squads at Spartan. They’ve been very steady this year, with hardly any girls blowing up in big races. There will be plenty of big races to come and I think they’ve solidified that they have an excellent shot of contending for a podium spot.
The Bulldogs have been laying a bit low these past few weeks. We saw a glimpse of them at Jackson, where they placed 3rd behind Romeo and Pioneer. And we also caught a glimpse of someone who can be a massive boon to their podium chances. Elle Bissett flashed a significant personal best, placing 10th in 18:26, more than a minute faster than her previous best.
Grand Haven
Week Four: Addy Smith has begun to show the promise she held during track (2:19/5:22), running a personal best of 19:08 at the latest OK Red Jamboree. That low-19 effort was almost a minute faster than her OK Red opener from her sophomore year.
Allendale Falcon was the home of two breakout races – where both Cianah Budnik-Ramos and Addy Smith slipped under 19:00 for the first time in their careers. Those two great showings led to a Buc victory in the Big School division.
Holland West Ottawa
The largest jump of any team in this top echelon. My rankings are a bit more conservative than most, as I feel the entire season speaks more volumes than just one race. So when a team jumps up 4 spots in one week because of one race, you know they absolutely brought it. West Ottawa’s slogan is Shared Suffering, but for Otsego Bulldog, it may as well have been Shared PB’s. 10 of the 13 girls that competed on Saturday ran a personal best.
Saline
Although the ratings this year don’t pay much attention to jamborees, I love comparing them against one another. The competition is usually the same, so one can easily discern how much a competitor has improved over the course of the season. In the first SEC Jamboree, the top 3 went: Pioneer 21, Saline 57, Dexter 99. In the second: Pioneer 27, Saline 48, Dexter 98. Even if the Hornets remained in second place, they clearly improved relative to other teams.
Northville
Week Four: You may have noticed these Mustangs punching high above their preseason rankings. There may be a number of factors, but one small one could be the frontrunning of Cassie Garcia. At Lamplighter, she assisted Molly Kate Coates before blasting the final mile. At Spartan, she took that patience and unleashed a lifetime best.
Clearly Molly Kate Coates has benefitted from her thoughtful coaches and teammates, as her 19:35 at Jackson was a lifetime best and clutch enough to give the Mustangs a 4th place finish over Saline.
Traverse City West
This past weekend, the Titans packed up and took the road down to Bluejay. Then they packed up on the course, all varsity runners within a minute of one another, ranging from 18:56 to 19:52.
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Week 5
Week 4
Week 3
Summer
1
Romeo
9
87
1
2
2
1
2
Ann Arbor Pioneer
5
152
2
1
1
3
3
Brighton
4
301
3
3
3
4
4
Grand Haven
1
341
7
5
5
9
5
Holland West Ottawa
1
343
9
8
6
5
6
Saline
5
374
5
9
7
2
7
Northville
6
397
4
4
4
10
8
Traverse City West
2
417
8
7
10
6
9
Forest Hills Central
3
421
6
6
8
15
10
Okemos
2
441
11
11
11
8
11
Rockford
1
574
12
12
14
12
12
Oxford
8
618
10
10
9
7
13
White Lake Lakeland
7
625
15
31
28
45
14
Davison
4
650
18
15
17
33
15
Utica
8
662
22
16
18
20
16
Traverse City Central
2
684
13
14
16
16
17
Dexter
4
711
16
21
22
13
18
Jenison
1
759
14
13
12
18
19
Clarkston
8
767
30
41
39
19
20
Fraser
9
784
19
19
20
34
21
Zeeland West
1
801
29
25
30
42
22
Walled Lake Northern
7
812
27
22
13
14
23
Portage Central
3
822
26
26
15
28
24
Macomb Dakota
9
824
17
17
23
27
25
Lake Orion
8
845
23
28
19
17
26
Ann Arbor Skyline
4
857
20
29
36
61
27
Rochester
8
893
24
20
26
37
BOYS TEAM RANKINGS
Northville
Week Three: “Have met the challenges of all competitors thus far, taking home titles at Lamplighter and Bath. But the toughest test might’ve been yesterday’s tri against Brighton and Canton, where the Mustangs eked out wins against two top-10 squads.”
Week Four: I lied. The toughest test was at Spartan, where a tie with Brighton invoked their 6th runners, to which the Bulldogs prevailed. But it’s early and you have a kid such as Ishaan Kundapur evolving from his 18-flat openers to mid-16’s at Forest Akers.
Thanks to the MHSAA’s updated rules, teams are allowed to travel in-season to adjacent states (hopefully in future years we can see Renaissance and Oak Park go to Penn/Texas Relays, but that’s another topic). The Mustangs took advantage of this rule by traveling to Roy Griak. Griak appears to run about 20-25 seconds slower than Spartan, so to average 16:35 across their top-5, even after being on the road for 11 hours, is mighty impressive.
Brighton
Week Three: “That tri against Northville was intriguing in the sense that the path toward a state title becomes perfectly clear. Can the Bulldogs establish enough of a gap between their 3rd-5th runners and Northville’s to counteract the margin between each of their top two’s. Speaking of those top two’s, Luke Campbell is in the middle of a breakout senior year. Has hovered around 16-flat at Cass Benton when he was typically in the 17’s there last year.”
Week Four: Through two runners, Northville scored 14 to Brighton’s 30. For their 3rd through 5th, Brighton scored 63 to Northville’s 79. There are many paths to victory in cross country and one of the more common ones is through quality depth, especially in larger fields. This is where the race could be won in weeks to come.
After that Spartan win, the Bulldogs traveled up the road to run Hess Hathaway’s Beautiful Lady. Not much will top the Spartan win, but there was a bit of beauty in Brighton’s victory at the Mott Fall Classic. All seven of their boys were under 17:10 on that tough track.
Grand Haven
Week Three: “At a Bredeweg Invite chock full of the West Coast’s best D1/D2 teams, the Bucs attained a fairly clear victory. Of course, Seth Norder did what he had to do in order to win, but it’s the improvement and addition of a few parts that gives the GH team their strength. Plenty of experience and a new addition, Luka Hammond, navigating the mid-16 waters as a true freshman.”
Week Four: Competing against the West Side’s best in the first OK Red Jamboree, the Bucs placed 4 in the top-8, 5 in the top-10, and cruised to a 17 point victory.
Roman Smith has been steadily improving all throughout his career and all throughout this year. His 16:10 at Allendale Falcon was his best time of his career, 2.5 minutes faster than his freshman best.
Canton
Week Four: The Green division may not be Spartan Elite, but you have a field full of D1 teams that love cross country – willing to travel from all over to compete on a Friday. The Chiefs scored 31 points in that field, smashing the top-20 and sub-17 with all 7 of their varsity runners.
Came up to the East Side over the weekend, flexing their muscles against a few top-10 teams. The Chiefs may have been missing Steven Dusseau, but Brandon Blandino stepped up in his absence, nabbing his fourth consecutive sub-17, coming in as Canton’s 5th man ahead of boy Troy and Oxford’s 4th.
Troy
It had been building for a bit – Jackson was the Colts’ coming out party. Personal bests from 6 of their top 7 en route to a second place finish against a bevy of the teams they could see at State. One of those bests was Kian Schneeweis, who has undergone a massive improvement, dropping from the high-16’s to mid-15’s this fall.
Oxford
Week Four: Proved their worth at the weekend invites. After finishing third in the first OAA Red Jamboree, the Wildcats turned around and vanquished Metro Detroit’s best D1 teams at Holly. Lucas Ames had one of the more clutch races, coming in as their 4th boy in his first sub-17 ever.
The Wildcats have sure shifted expectations this year. Before the season, if you had asked me what would be a superb race for them at County, I’d have said top-3. Now they’re in contention for the top spot. What a difference a few months makes.
Kalamazoo Central
Otsego is a quick course, but not egregiously so. When the Giants place six boys under 16:30, you know they’re for real. Among those six was freshman Sam Baker, hitting his first 15:xx in a career sure to be full of them.
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Week 5
Week 4
Week 3
Summer
1
Northville
6
177
1
1
1
1
2
Brighton
4
215
2
2
2
2
3
Grand Haven
1
311
3
3
3
4
4
Canton
6
352
6
5
6
20
5
Ann Arbor Pioneer
5
355
4
6
5
11
6
Troy
8
387
8
17
22
6
7
Oxford
8
416
5
4
4
19
8
Kalamazoo Central
3
470
9
7
10
3
9
Romeo
9
479
10
9
8
5
10
White Lake Lakeland
7
487
11
8
11
12
11
Forest Hills Central
3
528
12
10
17
8
12
Livonia Churchill
6
547
14
12
13
26
13
Walled Lake Northern
7
584
19
14
7
7
14
Macomb Dakota
9
606
13
13
9
33
15
Jenison
1
622
15
15
15
16
16
Portage Central
3
636
23
21
26
10
17
Traverse City Central
2
664
18
22
14
14
18
Utica
8
687
17
19
16
13
19
Plymouth
6
691
16
16
31
15
20
Zeeland West
1
721
24
23
19
21
21
Saline
5
747
22
18
18
18
22
Clarkston
8
775
7
11
12
9
23
Bay City Western
2
801
20
20
24
37
24
East Kentwood
3
813
21
24
21
45
25
Howell
4
906
25
25
25
31
26
Traverse City West
2
911
32
36
34
28
27
Byron Center
3
925
26
28
28
34
GIRLS INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS
Rachel Forsyth
Week Three: “For the ratings, I really don’t pay attention to jamborees. Purely as a fan of the sport, check out her 16:44 at Bedford. Judging by the times, the course ran fair and even in one of the tougher leagues in the state, she gapped the field by two minutes.”
Week Four: The dominance continued. Another considerable gap, this time by 45 seconds. Sub-17 on a Spartan course that for its lack of hills, never seems to run fast.
Lo and behold, that sub-17 at Spartan was a harbinger for things to come. Three straight mid-16 performances, highlighted by a 16:27 win over those Ohio girls.
Selma Anderson
Week Three: “At MITCA last year, popped into the 17’s for the first time ever and this fall, she’s back for more. 17:52 in her debut at Under the Lights was more than 1.5 minutes faster than her 2022 debut.”
Week Four: At a quick glance (and by my count – probably wrong), Selma had run at Riverside seven times prior to Saturday. None of those seven were sub-18, so girl had to make up for lost time and leave her mark on the course. 17:32 in the Session 2 race was good for a victory and massive personal best.
Ottawa Hills and their light schedules make it easy for these writeups, tough to know a runner’s progress. One thing for sure, Selma has registered two consecutive OK Gold wins and is committed to run for Syracuse next fall.
Jayden Harberts
Week Four: Getting back into the swing of things during her senior year. An 18:15 win at Willow was a season best.
And that season best was short-lived, as the Dakota girls traveled west on 94 to Jackson, where Jayden ran a 17:47. Her time there marked four straight years of sub-18’s.
Annie Hrabovsky
Inching to get out there and prove she belonged, Annie finally convinced the Romeo coaches that it was time to let her loose. Jackson was the place, and in the race, it was the final 2500m, where she moved up through almost the entire field to place 3rd in 17:53.
Clara James-Heer
Can’t speak enough about the patience of Clara. After tons of performances in the very low-18’s as a freshman, she didn’t reach that level too often in her sophomore and junior years. But she’s still out there, still showing up, and now showing up in 18:07 at Cougar Falcon and 17:44 at Shepherd.
Natalia Guaresimo
Had to sit out at Shepherd, but I think her Sharp Park success was enough to count for two meets. 100+ seconds faster than her freshman year, her 17:59.8 was good enough for 4th in a field comprised of many potential podium finishers.
Lucy Cook
Week Four: Her Spartan Invite went much better than last year. An 18:10 was nearly a minute faster than the previous year. Rochester is taking the weekend off; we’ll see her return to action next week with an OAA White Jamboree and the Hansons Invitational.
Just patiently doing her thing, winning and tuning up for championship season. An 18:15 at Freedom Hill was her third consecutive Hansons title and good prep for what could be a third consecutive Oakland County title.
Morgan Brown
Jackson and Bluejay were perfect opportunities to run fast and take stock of the competition you’ll see down the line. Two top-10 finishes for Morgan, including her first sub-18 ever at Shepherd. That 17:57 made even more remarkable given the fact that she was running by herself for much of the race.
Rank
Grade
Name
Team
Region
1
12
Rachel Forsyth
Ann Arbor Pioneer
5
2
12
Selma Anderson
Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills
3
3
12
Jayden Harberts
Macomb Dakota
9
4
9
Annie Hrabovsky
Romeo
9
5
12
Clara James-Heer
Forest Hills Central
3
6
10
Natalia Guaresimo
Romeo
9
7
11
Lucy Cook
Rochester
8
8
12
Morgan Brown
Livonia Churchill
6
9
10
Emmerson Clor
Romeo
9
10
11
Cassie Garcia
Northville
6
11
12
Katie Watkins
H.H. Dow
2
12
12
Ella Christensen
Northville
6
13
11
Valerie Beeck
Grand Haven
1
14
12
Lydia Bowman
Ann Arbor Pioneer
5
15
11
Violet Hrabovsky
Romeo
9
16
10
Ava Porras
Holland West Ottawa
1
17
11
Mallory Bigelow
Oxford
8
18
12
Payton Scheffler
Brownstown Woodhaven
5
19
12
Carrigan Eberly
Brighton
4
20
12
Layla Krayem
Livonia Stevenson
6
21
11
Isabelle Becker
Bay City Western
2
22
11
Ava Alicandro
White Lake Lakeland
7
23
10
Addie Birkholz
Holland West Ottawa
1
24
12
Natalie Mello
Ann Arbor Pioneer
5
25
12
Hannah DeRoeck
Lake Orion
8
26
12
Elaina (Laney) Alig
Saline
5
27
10
Leah Corby
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
9
28
12
Shannon Gillahan
Okemos
2
29
11
Grace Tykocki
Grand Blanc
4
30
12
Braydee Elling
Oxford
8
31
12
Ella Kirkwood
Traverse City Central
2
32
10
Lydia LaMarra
Brighton
4
33
11
Ava Peters
Livonia Franklin
6
34
12
Paige McArdle
Davison
4
35
12
Alisia Olteanu
Walled Lake Western
7
36
11
Chloe DeRidder
Grandville
1
37
12
Allison Mayer
Ann Arbor Skyline
4
38
10
Ava Lawrence
East Kentwood
3
39
11
Alena Blumberg
Dexter
4
40
11
Lauren Walker
Holt
2
41
12
Izzy Fazio
Forest Hills Northern
3
42
10
Addison Herr
Bloomfield Hills
8
43
11
Annie Alkema
Kalamazoo Central
3
44
10
Cianah Budnik-Ramos
Grand Haven
1
45
12
Sylvia Sanok Dufallo
Ann Arbor Pioneer
5
46
11
Elle Bissett
Brighton
4
47
12
Alexis Ball
Traverse City Central
2
48
11
Addy Smith
Grand Haven
1
49
11
Jordyn Klaasen
Zeeland West
1
50
10
Audrey Hamilton
Troy
8
BOYS INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS
Seth Norder
Week Four: Pulling an audible here. The ratings and numbers say one thing, logic and reason says other. The rules and methods I use to determine these are meant to work for the vast majority of competitors, but not those who exert just enough effort to win. Seth has won when necessary and not gone to the well when unnecessary. His 15:24 in the Spartan Elite race was enough to outlast all the other Division 1 runners.
The Bucs and Seth are heading to Portage this week, the location of his 14:45 last year. Just 9 seconds separate him from the top time ever at this historic meet, can he add to his legacy this weekend?
Brendan Herger
Week Three: “Just chillin’ in this early season. He’s been in the 15’s in each of his three races thus far, one of those at the perennially tough Cass Benton and the other a win at Bath.”
Week Four: Brendan took a much more patient approach to Spartan, covering the final 1782 meters (1.1) in 5:21, making up 16-17 seconds on Westphal and Norder. In the end, it was damn close, but not enough. Regardless, he’s right there with those two, probably possessing the best pure speed as well.
21st to 18th to 9th, Brendan applied his patient strategy to the Minnesota hills, coming away with a sub-16 (probably in the range of a 15:1x on many of our fair courses) at Roy Griak.
Thomas Westphal
Week Four: Came in right behind Norder in 15:26. His attitude and racing style has been consistent throughout, whether it’s been leading at Shepherd in 4:40, hanging with Benne through 1200, or as it was on Friday, mixing it up with the lead pack and holding on with whatever he had left.
Along with TJ Hansen, set a blistering pace over the first 2 miles at Shepherd. It didn’t happen for him late, but even with a somewhat disappointing race, he nearly matched his time from 2022. By the way, that 15:14 from 2022 led to a MAC Division and Regional Championship, along with a top-5 finish at State.
Vishvaa Ravishankar
Week Four: A 15:41 at Holly may have not been a personal best, though it was easily his best performance of this young season.
Masterfully made the final, deciding move at Jackson. From 3k to 4k, opened up a considerable gap on the competition that he rode to the finish and rode to a 15 second personal best.
Vincent Guaresimo
Week Three: “Two 2nd’s and a 3rd, but think of his early season in terms of comparison. 16:26 to 15:52 at Lamplighter and 16:44 to 16:13 at Averill.”
Week Four: Might not be winning, but man he’s consistent. Three big efforts, all the equivalent of a ~15:30.
Others may have more flashy times and wins, but this guy is steady and consistent. Top-10 efforts at Lamplighter, Averill, Holly, and Jackson. His Sharp Park race gave him a minor personal best, 4 seconds faster than his MITCA race.
Aiden Moore
Championship season started early in the Battle Creek area with Aiden capturing his second consecutive City Championship. The King of BC then took the journey north to Otsego, lowering his already impressive Lakeview school record to 15:10.
Ethan Powell
Week Four: Definitely taking The Leap in his junior year. He’s already been in the 15’s on five occasions, getting there even in weekday tri meets. His 15:36 on the soft Forest Akers turf was a good 40 seconds faster than last year.
Embarked on the same strategy as Herger, but a bit earlier in the race. 41st at the mile, to 21st at 2, to 18th at the finish. Some call it confidence to go out with the lead group and hang on for dear life. I think you’re more sure of yourself when you know you can close gaps late. Ethan and his Northville teammates appear to be mastering that skill and trusting their training.
Taye Levenson
Holly was a shocker, taking it to Vishvaa early and not relenting, traversing the tight turns and short hills to a 15:35 victory. Although he’s finished 2nd in a few races since, take a look at the competition, all runners that will be favorites to step on the podium in a month.
Okay, I had to break my own rule and do this. But I wanted to find out how fast this course really was. What did the times say? Discounting a few anomalies and outliers, most runners ran about 35-40 seconds faster than what their seasonal ratings would suggest.
Girls Adjustment: +39 Boys Adjustment: +36
*** = Team State Title type of performance ** = Top-10 Team type of performance * = Team Qualifier type of performance
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 