Blog

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	The Potter’s House	16	95+	95+
2	Three Oaks River Valley	51		95+
3	Muskegon Catholic Central	104		73
4	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	110		27

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lezawe Osterink	The Potter’s House	1.00
2	12	Logan Swiney	The Potter’s House	2.38
3	11	Jackson Rodriguez	The Potter’s House	2.62
4	11	Noah Finton	The Potter’s House	4.43
5	11	Ezra Hagedorn	The Potter’s House	6.01
6	10	Tyler Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	6.40
7	9	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	6.86
8	9	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	8.28
9	10	Adam Slavens	Three Oaks River Valley	8.59
10	9	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	10.83
11	11	Owen McLoughlin	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	12.12
12	11	Austin York	Three Oaks River Valley	13.50
13	11	Jacob Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	13.94
14	12	Gavin Hancox	Gobles	14.51
15	10	Ryan Blankenship	Eau Claire	14.83
16	11	Owen Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	15.26
17	11	Matthew Lage	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	17.94
18	11	Elliot Bourne	New Buffalo	18.85
19	10	Caleb Oudbier	Tri-Unity Christian	19.14
20	11	Owen Slavens	Three Oaks River Valley	22.90
21	11	Braiden Brooks	Three Oaks River Valley	23.41
22	11	Jack Walkenhorst	Muskegon Catholic Central	23.58
23	9	Haylen Buell	Martin	23.61
24	10	Sean Driscoll	Three Oaks River Valley	24.03
25	9	Isaac Struck-VanderHaak	The Potter’s House	24.27
26	12	Edward Lopez	Eau Claire	26.12
27	12	Joshua Schmitz	Libertas Christian	28.40
28	10	Zach Vonk	Holland Calvary Christian	29.04
29	10	Kalen Loebach	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	29.19
30	12	Evan Spriggs	New Buffalo	29.34

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	54	37	95+
2	Libertas Christian	54	30	95+
3	The Potter’s House	55	33	95+
4	Holland Calvary Christian	72		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Allison Glendening	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	1.57
2	10	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	2.11
3	9	Sadie Schout	Libertas Christian	3.19
4	11	Ivy Andreas	The Potter’s House	3.55
5	12	Aliz Pusztai	Libertas Christian	5.52
6	10	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-Unity Christian	6.78
7	9	Madison Cooley	Gobles	8.03
8	9	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	8.04
9	11	Abby Kunkle	Libertas Christian	9.21
10	12	Cally Camara	Muskegon Catholic Central	10.00
11	10	Mary Riley	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	10.81
12	12	Kassidy Kleinheksel	Muskegon Catholic Central	13.58
13	12	Vanessa Peltoniemi	Holton	13.70
14	10	Hannah Hysell	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	14.54
15	9	Alison Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	15.83
16	12	Riley Sinkler	Lawrence	16.04
17	10	Aubrey Goyings	Holton	18.12
18	9	Ana VanZanten	Holland Calvary Christian	18.61
19	12	Emily Folkert	Libertas Christian	19.41
20	12	Madeline Madsen	Lawrence	19.60
21	9	Marisa Toonstra	The Potter’s House	22.23
22	11	Abby Schrauben	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	24.49
23	11	Lydia VerBeek	The Potter’s House	24.83
24	9	Aribel Mills	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	25.90
25	10	Olivia Laninga	Holland Calvary Christian	26.16
26	11	Isabelle Schrauben	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	27.19
27	12	Cristina Avello	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	27.33
28	11	Sydney Amondson	The Potter’s House	28.67
29	9	Kylie Bobo	The Potter’s House	28.73
30	10	Zoie Wood	Gobles	28.74

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Saranac	63	95+	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	103		94
3	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	113		83
4	North Muskegon	130		23

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Samuel Martini	Kent City	1.07
2	12	Nathan Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	2.04
3	9	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.07
4	11	Nathan Day	Saranac	4.76
5	11	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	6.78
6	10	Levi Kamps	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	7.07
7	12	Elijah Powell	Saranac	7.44
8	12	Owen Fairchild	Montague	7.47
9	12	Andrew Hardy	Stanton Central Montcalm	8.04
10	10	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	13.26
11	12	Jude Meldrum-Roy	North Muskegon	14.01
12	11	Jaren Vogel	Kent City	14.13
13	12	Jude Meldrum-Roy	North Muskegon	16.33
14	12	Evan Johnson	Saranac	17.03
15	10	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	17.69
16	12	Ben Sluiter	Saranac	18.58
17	9	Luke Tibbe	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	18.64
18	11	Hunter Helminski	Saranac	19.63
19	11	Matthew Anton	Ravenna	20.40
20	12	Roger Hernandez	Holland Black River	20.61
21	12	Jonathan Clausing	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	20.62
22	11	Graeson Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	20.75
23	10	Evan Oosterhouse	Saranac	22.29
24	10	Luke Dykstra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	22.86
25	11	Nick Lubbers	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.00
26	11	Trevor Dornbos	Grandville Calvin Christian	23.62
27	12	Mason Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.97
28	11	Evan Atkinson-Miller	North Muskegon	26.96
29	11	Clay Johnson	Montague	30.51
30	10	Charles Brooks	Grand Rapids West Catholic	31.26

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	71	89	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	85	10	95+
3	Kent City	91		95+
4	Grand Rapids West Catholic	115		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Lila Volkers	Kent City	1.09
2	10	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	2.37
3	12	Madeleine Hill	Saranac	3.05
4	10	Grace VanderKooi	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	3.83
5	11	Amber Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	4.94
6	9	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	5.79
7	10	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	7.10
8	12	Jonathah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	9.24
9	10	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	9.74
10	11	Lily LeSarge	Grand Rapids West Catholic	10.53
11	11	Grace Folkema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	11.58
12	12	Lainey Roth	Grand Rapids West Catholic	12.48
13	12	Carolyn Bennett	North Muskegon	13.09
14	11	Gracie Houtman	Kent City	13.10
15	11	Cammie Erickson	Montague	15.24
16	11	Isabella Max	Kent City	16.42
17	9	Alia Zuidema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	18.17
18	12	Lily LaBurn	Holland Black River	18.38
19	12	Brianna Zuidema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	19.57
20	12	Anna Tubbergen	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	19.92
21	11	Eleanor Kingshott	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	21.09
22	10	Alyssa Possehn	Saranac	23.46
23	11	Lindsay Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.55
24	12	Nathalie Strockis	Grand Rapids West Catholic	24.87
25	9	Dylan Bosma	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	26.94
26	11	Lauren Jousma	Grandville Calvin Christian	27.46
27	9	Amber Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	29.32
28	10	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	30.43
29	12	Joelle White	Delton-Kellogg	30.59
30	9	Lydia Howard	Kent City	30.63

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Rapids Christian	38	95+	95+
2	Allendale	97		95+
3	Holland Christian	109		75
4	Hamilton	123		19
5	Spring Lake	129		8

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	1.11
2	11	Noah Lambers	Holland	3.10
3	12	Max VanHuis	Hamilton	3.82
4	10	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	4.22
5	12	Adrian Castillo	Holland	7.27
6	11	Joe Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	8.49
7	12	Gavin Wiersma	Zeeland East	9.01
8	12	Reuben Wiering	Grand Rapids Christian	9.57
9	11	Dylan Clark	Grand Rapids Christian	11.20
10	10	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	11.28
11	10	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	13.23
12	10	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	13.41
13	10	Jeb Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	13.49
14	11	Ian Richthammer	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	13.97
15	9	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	14.18
16	11	Peter Kuperus	Grand Rapids Christian	14.19
17	10	Aidan Brinks	Holland Christian	15.00
18	12	Ethan Grevengoed	Spring Lake	16.77
19	9	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	17.22
20	10	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	18.09
21	11	Lucas Ruffing	Spring Lake	21.73
22	10	Vincent Pollock	Fruitport	22.47
23	10	Parker Woodwyk	Spring Lake	24.17
24	12	Nick Riemersma	Zeeland East	25.53
25	10	Aiden Kasprzak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	26.08
26	12	Nate Oosterhouse	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.06
27	11	Josh Langeland	Hamilton	28.29
28	10	Brayden Rynsburger	Holland Christian	29.13
29	10	Nathan Steen	Holland Christian	30.38
30	11	Levi Glynn	Fruitport	30.62

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Rapids Christian	31	95+	95+
2	Spring Lake	64		95+
3	Zeeland East	71		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Natalie VanOtteren	Grand Rapids Christian	1.12
2	11	Allison Kuzma	Zeeland East	1.88
3	9	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	4.39
4	11	Naomi Nelson	Grand Rapids Christian	4.72
5	12	Lily Parker	Spring Lake	5.09
6	9	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	6.24
7	11	Emily Tomes	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	7.63
8	11	Payton Holtz	Grand Rapids Christian	7.96
9	12	Alisa Mason	Holland	8.32
10	10	Lexie Ruffing	Spring Lake	8.78
11	9	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	11.31
12	11	Bea Reeser	Spring Lake	14.40
13	9	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	15.23
14	10	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	15.44
15	12	Ava Buhlman	Allendale	16.76
16	12	Sarah Timmer	Grand Rapids Christian	18.01
17	10	Maddie Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	18.17
18	9	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	18.73
19	12	Anna Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	19.88
20	11	Addie Grill	Zeeland East	21.25
21	10	Valerie Pollock	Fruitport	21.73
22	9	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	21.80
23	9	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	24.57
24	12	Trina Farris	Hamilton	25.07
25	12	Hayley Heinrich	Zeeland East	25.55
26	9	Charlene Kuras	Zeeland East	26.77
27	12	Jessie Postma	Hudsonville Unity Christian	26.98
28	11	Katie Riemersma	Spring Lake	28.10
29	12	Alyssa Gerritsma	Holland Christian	28.67
30	10	Sophie Bukrey	Coopersville	29.42

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Haven	63	88	95+
2	Zeeland West	76	7	95+
3	Jenison	88	5	85
4	Rockford	102		15

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Seth Norder	Grand Haven	1.17
2	12	Caleb Branch	Muskegon Mona Shores	2.58
3	12	Colin Graham	Rockford	3.55
4	12	Jaben Bakker	Hudsonville	4.11
5	12	Chase Holwerda	Zeeland West	6.73
6	12	Espen Wood	Cedar Springs	7.63
7	10	Seth Conner	Jenison	10.12
8	10	Mason Lucas	Jenison	10.41
9	10	Ben Held	Grand Haven	10.56
10	12	Caleb Smith	Zeeland West	11.14
11	12	Logan Vining	Grand Haven	11.50
12	11	Jaxon Allen	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	12.11
13	10	Carter Livermore	Grandville	12.57
14	12	Brendan Wangler	Jenison	13.80
15	12	Charles Lewis	Rockford	14.87
16	12	Nathan Golding	Zeeland West	14.97
17	10	Carson Berko	Grand Haven	16.01
18	11	Nate Fahey	Rockford	16.89
19	12	Austin O’brien	Grand Rapids Kenowa hills	19.05
20	9	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	20.91
21	11	Jack DeKruyter	Zeeland West	22.09
22	9	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	24.00
23	9	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	24.71
24	12	Connor Wooley	Holland West Ottawa	25.88
25	9	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	27.62
26	9	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	28.26
27	10	Noah Schuette	Rockford	28.48
28	11	Roman Smith	Grand Haven	28.52
29	12	Will Marth	Jenison	29.08
30	11	Carson Hauch	Zeeland West	29.10

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Holland West Ottawa	36	95+	95+
2	Jenison	88		95+
3	Grand Haven	93		90
4	Rockford	114		12

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	1.19
2	12	Arianne Olson	Holland West Ottawa	1.84
3	12	Allison Arnsman	Grandville	2.97
4	12	Maya Guikema	Jenison	4.84
5	10	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	5.01
6	10	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	5.47
7	12	Megan Postma	Holland West Ottawa	7.69
8	9	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	8.10
9	12	Bella Hoffer	Zeeland West	11.44
10	9	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	11.89
11	10	Natalie Lewis	Rockford	12.06
12	12	Maggie Otto	Jenison	12.43
13	10	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	13.22
14	9	Ellery Horness	Muskegon Mona Shores	13.98
15	11	Madelyn Vande Bunte	Jenison	14.47
16	10	Addison Smith	Grand Haven	16.23
17	12	Larissa McGrath	Cedar Springs	17.14
18	9	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	19.87
19	12	Robyn Hunt	Muskegon Mona Shores	21.35
20	12	Cecilia Conrad	Muskegon Mona Shores	22.87
21	9	Addie Birkholz	Holland West Ottawa	24.11
22	10	Emma Smith	Rockford	24.36
23	12	Elise Conkel	Hudsonville	24.92
24	10	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	26.62
25	10	Abbey Scholma	Hudsonville	27.23
26	11	Payton Hosley	Grand Haven	28.25
27	10	Naomi Diekman	Jenison	28.75
28	11	Annalise Elliott	Cedar Springs	29.57
29	10	Devin Fisher	Rockford	29.61
30	10	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	31.20

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Saugatuck	82	93	95+
2	Buchanan	104	6	95+
3	Kalamazoo Christian	117		84
4	Bridgman	141		7
5	Bloomingdale	143		8

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	William Winter	Parchment	2.38
2	11	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	2.56
3	12	Logan Weis	Centreville	2.98
4	11	Boden Genovese	Coloma	3.00
5	12	Ethan Glick	Constantine	5.20
6	12	John Sanderson	Bridgman	7.27
7	10	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	7.50
8	11	Russell Vande Poel	Saugatuck	9.96
9	12	Joe Stocchiero	Bloomingdale	11.01
10	12	Isaac Bogard	Kalamazoo Christian	11.35
11	12	Charlie Stormer	Saugatuck	11.49
12	12	Luke Gorgas	Saugatuck	12.30
13	10	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	14.22
14	9	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	14.88
15	11	Britain Philip	Buchanan	16.41
16	9	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	17.76
17	12	Kam Rinker	Kalamazoo Christian	18.89
18	12	Nick Mitchell	Kalamazoo Christian	19.81
19	9	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	20.94
20	9	Chayse Ciborski	Bloomingdale	21.19
21	10	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	21.28
22	10	Ethan Miller	Centreville	24.13
23	10	Carter Stevens	Galesburg-Augusta	24.64
24	9	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	24.78
25	10	Eddy Granados	Coloma	24.81
26	9	Brennan Nor	Saugatuck	27.03
27	10	Elliot Cole	Parchment	28.10
28	10	James VanderDussen	Kalamazoo Christian	30.30
29	11	Mason Gardea	Fennville	30.93
30	11	Loch Rigozzi	Saugatuck	31.44

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Kalamazoo Christian	52	95+	95+
2	Schoolcraft	85		95+
3	Buchanan	123		68
4	Lawton	136		15
5	Bridgman	136		17

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kendra Koster	Lawton	1.02
2	10	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	2.69
3	12	Sofia Oertel	Lawton	2.97
4	12	Annika Sytsma	Kalamazoo Christian	4.30
5	12	Caley Kerwin	Schoolcraft	6.04
6	12	Lydia Kruis	Comstock	6.26
7	10	Madeline Young	Buchanan	6.86
8	11	Angel Miller	Parchment	6.88
9	10	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	9.90
10	10	Clara Fast	Bridgman	10.03
11	12	Aubrey Herder	Kalamazoo Christian	10.87
12	11	Nidia Martinez	Fennville	12.83
13	12	Bethany Brown	Parchment	15.22
14	12	Rachel Allabaugh	Kalamazoo Christian	15.27
15	12	Autumn Major	Centreville	15.89
16	11	Morgan Lowell	Watervliet	16.23
17	9	Adyson Baker	Buchanan	16.54
18	12	Hope Zichterman	Kalamazoo Christian	19.35
19	11	Jenna VanDussen	Schoolcraft	20.53
20	10	Jaelynn Little	Bangor	22.10
21	11	Merissa Mendoza	Fennville	22.82
22	9	Ellie Reed	Centreville	23.26
23	11	Natalie Glerum	Schoolcraft	24.56
24	10	Kimberly Romero	Watervliet	26.08
25	12	Summer Fast	Bridgman	26.38
26	12	Camryn Brown	Coloma	26.92
27	11	Alyssa VanDussen	Schoolcraft	27.45
28	9	Makynna Williams	Buchanan	27.83
29	10	Christina Mendoza	Fennville	29.54
30	9	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	31.15

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	29	95+	95+
2	Berrien Springs	113		79
3	Paw Paw	120		63
4	St. Joseph	125		34
5	Plainwell	135		18
6	Vicksburg	143		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Colin Wesseldyk	Otsego	1.21
2	10	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	3.20
3	12	Luke Morrison	Berrien Springs	3.74
4	12	Will Vanderbor	Paw Paw	5.14
5	11	Aiden Kruger	Niles	5.46
6	12	Luke Aldrich	Otsego	6.31
7	9	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	9.22
8	12	Austin Williford	Paw Paw	9.29
9	10	Skye Smith	Vicksburg	10.70
10	12	Pierce Bentley	Otsego	10.89
11	10	Sulley Zietlow	Three Rivers	11.35
12	10	Noah Jarvis	Berrien Springs	13.22
13	11	Dane Bailey	Edwardsburg	15.13
14	12	Will Fiesbeck	St. Joseph	16.01
15	12	Thai Nguyen	Plainwell	16.50
16	12	Haroon Omar	Coldwater	16.52
17	12	Tucker Radgens	Vicksburg	17.56
18	11	Shay White	St. Joseph	17.73
19	12	Sam Markle	Berrien Springs	17.94
20	10	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	18.19
21	11	Isaac Veen	Plainwell	20.43
22	10	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	21.55
23	11	Matthew Schreiner	Otsego	22.25
24	10	Nolan Park	Sturgis	25.66
25	10	Henry Cox	Plainwell	26.60
26	10	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	27.37
27	12	Johnathan Pant	Three Rivers	28.67
28	11	Brayden Odell	Vicksburg	29.05
29	11	Aden Webber	Paw Paw	29.97
30	11	Alex Moyer	St. Joseph	31.32

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	28	95+	95+
2	St. Joseph	45		95+
3	Vicksburg	127		51
4	Stevensville Lakeshore	134		31
5	Plainwell	136		18

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Megan Germain	Otsego	1.29
2	10	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	2.88
3	9	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	3.31
4	11	Gail Vaikutis	St. Joseph	4.11
5	11	Logan Brazee	Otsego	4.45
6	10	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	5.21
7	12	Olivia Ippel	St. Joseph	8.09
8	11	Emma Steele	Vicksburg	8.11
9	10	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	10.03
10	9	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	10.32
11	11	Cecilia Ruchti	St. Joseph	11.59
12	9	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	12.33
13	12	Grace Pettit	Plainwell	13.42
14	9	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	14.70
15	10	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	17.33
16	11	Anezka Pradna	Three Rivers	18.02
17	11	Jennifer Hernandez	Three Rivers	18.32
18	11	Jade Murdoch	St. Joseph	19.99
19	12	Amanda Laughery	Vicksburg	20.24
20	10	Kaylee Sprague	Stevensville Lakeshore	20.31
21	12	Maeline Dehanne	Otsego	20.42
22	12	Claire Ritchey	Edwardsburg	21.14
23	12	Molly Young	Vicksburg	23.64
24	9	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	25.16
25	9	Hannah Wier	St. Joseph	26.47
26	10	Taylor Klimp	Otsego	26.91
27	10	Lainey Yearling	Coldwater	27.07
28	9	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	31.63
29	12	Sabrina Mills	Allegan	33.03
30	10	Annika DeJong	Stevensville Lakeshore	33.17

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	St. Clair	34	94	95+
2	Yale	44	6	95+
3	Macomb Lutheran North	105		85
4	Armada	119		15

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Camden Khon	Armada	1.66
2	12	Carter Boullard	St. Clair	1.69
3	11	Blake Ferguson	Yale	3.17
4	12	David Harris	St. Clair	3.74
5	11	Giovanni Pardo-Keegan	Yale	6.02
6	11	Dylan Distelrath	St. Clair	6.29
7	11	Acer Campbell	Yale	7.11
8	12	Joe Edgemon	St. Clair	9.35
9	11	Elliot Whitney	Imlay City	9.91
10	12	Riley Andrews	Armada	10.47
11	11	Brewer Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	11.36
12	12	Peter Vitale	St. Clair	13.75
13	10	Ted Rutkofske	Yale	14.63
14	10	Korbyn Thornton	St. Clair	16.17
15	10	Kale Kovach	Yale	16.41
16	11	Jamison Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	16.77
17	11	Anthony Goatley	Madison Heights Lamphere	16.80
18	12	Lance Kowalski	Marysville	16.83
19	11	Vinny Schweihofer	St. Clair	18.77
20	10	Jack Nicol	Yale	21.45
21	10	Wyatt Murtos	Yale	22.12
22	11	Alex Robertson	Marine City	22.89
23	11	Trent Glass	Marysville	23.61
24	9	Xaiver Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	25.31
25	9	Ty Taylor	Croswell-Lexington	25.68
26	11	Ryan Delarosa	Macomb Lutheran North	25.81
27	10	Jack McMahon	Macomb Lutheran North	26.00
28	11	Luke Nawrocki	Armada	27.62
29	11	Jayden Robertson	Marine City	28.84
30	10	Pete Lutz	Madison Heights Lamphere	29.50

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Croswell-Lexington	65	57	95+
2	St. Clair	65	43	95+
3	Warren Regina	90		83
4	Armada	103		17

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	1.42
2	10	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	1.98
3	11	Morgan Newton	Croswell-Lexington	2.73
4	12	Ava Pergitone	St. Clair	4.81
5	10	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	5.42
6	11	Brianna Albers	Richmond	6.03
7	11	Kennedy Roskopp	Warren Regina	6.59
8	12	Anne May	Macomb Lutheran North	8.55
9	10	Lillian Rutallie	Marysville	9.83
10	10	Allie Komarowski	St. Clair	9.94
11	12	Olivia Ebel	Macomb Lutheran North	12.33
12	11	Abagayle Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	13.23
13	11	Lilyana Bratt	St. Clair	13.39
14	12	Katelynn Jalosky	St. Clair	14.53
15	11	Casidhe Flesher	Marine City	16.80
16	12	Karlie Schlaud	North Branch	17.15
17	11	Darrah Mackenzie	Armada	17.16
18	10	Natalie Lentine	Warren Regina	17.97
19	11	Gabby Fernandez	Warren Regina	19.81
20	11	Ava Baltierra	Armada	21.81
21	10	Brynn Hurley	Croswell-Lexington	21.86
22	11	Lauren Koski	Macomb Lutheran North	22.06
23	12	Jenna Denver	Imlay City	23.01
24	9	Aubrey Sargent	St. Clair	25.99
25	11	Ella Deshon	Marysville	26.25
26	12	Aubrey Connelly	Croswell-Lexington	26.51
27	10	Charlotte O’Brien	Imlay City	27.58
28	12	Ava Zobay	Armada	29.08
29	10	Rowan Conley	North Branch	30.47
30	9	Paulina Chapman	Richmond	30.61

SUMMER PREVIEW

JACOB TANNER’S EXTENSIVE BOYS DEEP DIVE

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	69	89	95+
2	Port Huron Northern	84	11	95+
3	Grosse Pointe South	135		40
4	Fraser	138		31
5	Macomb Dakota	140		18
6	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	150		5
7	Anchor Bay	155		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Thomas Westphal	Anchor Bay	1.13
2	11	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo	2.95
3	11	Connor Clor	Romeo	3.27
4	12	Logan Detweiler	Grosse Pointe South	3.81
5	12	Justin Roose	Fraser	6.01
6	12	Glen Davis	Port Huron Northern	6.18
7	12	Brendan Downey	Grosse Pointe South	7.06
8	11	Tyler Donovan	Fraser	9.44
9	12	Jack Mathers	Macomb Dakota	9.66
10	11	Dylan Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	10.26
11	11	Luke VanderHeuvel	Port Huron Northern	10.81
12	12	Jacob Maurer	Utica Eisenhower	14.57
13	12	Michael Paoletti	Port Huron Northern	15.25
14	11	Zachary Rubicz	Anchor Bay	15.40
15	9	Lance Edghill	Fraser	16.51
16	11	Carter Fox	Macomb Dakota	16.93
17	11	Tyler Brothers	Utica Eisenhower	17.32
18	12	Zachary Larson	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	17.38
19	11	Brandon Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	18.25
20	12	Derrian Kumfer	Romeo	18.58
21	11	Luke Maher	Port Huron Northern	19.93
22	11	Michael Magnoli	Romeo	23.43
23	11	Jack DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	23.49
24	11	Bryce Goodsell	Romeo	24.55
25	12	Evan Lord	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	25.49
26	12	Eli Hullinger	Romeo	26.16
27	10	Caleb Kosel	Grosse Pointe North	27.79
28	11	Simon Davis	Macomb Dakota	28.81
29	11	David Rochon	Grosse Pointe North	29.79
30	11	Jet Miller	Grosse Pointe South	30.08

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	38	95+	95+
2	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	58		95+
3	Macomb Dakota	92		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota	1.07
2	12	Madison Clor	Romeo	1.93
3	9	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	3.15
4	10	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	4.60
5	12	Lily Solek	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	4.77
6	10	Grace Grupido	Fraser	7.21
7	10	Lillian Deskins	Grosse Pointe North	8.33
8	9	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	9.60
9	12	Katie Knish	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	9.68
10	12	Ava LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	10.23
11	12	Makenna Musser	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	13.09
12	12	Therese Georgia	Port Huron Northern	13.75
13	10	Savannah Spangler	Grosse Pointe South	13.92
14	12	Isabella Beck	Utica Eisenhower	13.95
15	12	AnnDee Geddes	L’Anse Creuse North	14.38
16	11	Sydney Gergics	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	14.97
17	9	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	16.84
18	11	Olivia Lombardo	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	19.35
19	12	Lindsay Harvey	Macomb Dakota	21.11
20	10	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	21.34
21	11	Gracie Youngblood	Romeo	21.74
22	10	Shelby Stabile	L’Anse Creuse	21.87
23	10	Charlotte Long	Utica Eisenhower	22.07
24	9	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	23.04
25	11	Remi Flanz	Fraser	24.27
26	11	Alyssa Ko	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	25.12
27	11	Lauren Thomas	Anchor Bay	26.00
28	11	Lucie Leonhard	Grosse Pointe North	26.06
29	12	Dylan Pasia	Port Huron Northern	29.65
30	10	Luciana Rodriguez	Fraser	31.46