All in all, the ratings were fairly accurate (188/240, 78%) in predicting All-Staters. But there are always those that step up on a big day, trudge through the slop in that final 800 to nab a spot on the podium. Those that dug deep, you expected this to happen, even if the numbers said otherwise.
Here’s a list of those who rose to the occasion on Saturday:
Well, this summer I was wrong by predicting Zofia Dudek would not run for Ann Arbor Pioneer this season. Even if I were right, it’s not as if she’s been much impact, judging by the projected places, they only move up one spot. This isn’t a dig at her, more a signal of the health of their overall team. Quite a few of their runners have gone massive transformations this year. Most notable of which has been Cookie Baugh. We’re seeing how her freshman year might have gone if she were able to finish the 2018 season. She’s been sub-19 for all of October and the ratings see her on the All-State cusp. Other team members with significant drops this year are Anna Dudek (there’s another one???), Sarah Forsyth, and Charlotte Batra.
Even with Dudek’s brilliance, Traverse City Central is
right there. For much of the season, it appeared
as if they were in that battle for second, but they’ve began to assert
themselves in October. You can lay that
at the feet of Leah Socks and Madilyn McLean. Both have dropped over 10 points (0:30) from
their September averages. For McLean,
that leap included a massive PR, an 18:52 at Benzie, her first sub-19 performance
ever.
Northville and Brighton (Salem and Plymouth,
for that matter) have gone through some wars in the KLAA. Brighton took their latest contest at the
KLAA Finals. In a larger field,
Northville has an advantage because of their mid-pack runners. Gina Couyoumjian can be key, placing
ahead of Brighton’s fifth girl. Then
again, Hannah Tsiang and Karly Lynch have stepped up in recent
weeks.
Special shoutout to Salem as well. They’ve absorbed some losses over the course
of the season and they’ll be right in the mix.
Watch out for those girls next year.
You’d be hard-pressed to tell me Zofia Dudek isn’t
the number one runner in the nation right now.
I know about Tuohy, Hart, Masciarelli.
But something about Michigan runners and performing above their
perceived level at national meets. It
would take a miracle for Dudek to not win here, against any common Division 1
opponent, she’s won by at least 25 seconds.
I believe the other four have an equal case for admission
into that second slot. When needed, Audrey
DaDamio has ratcheted up the pace, example being that 171 at Oakland
County. Arianne Olson has had a
drama-free season, quietly racking up 165+ performances. If not for a wrong turn at Northern Michigan,
Julia Flynn would have a higher rating.
Luckily, MIS is pretty well marked.
Sarah Forsyth likely will not win, but Pioneer needs her to be
steady for their team victory. And
steady she has been, right around that 160 mark all season.
Although the projections are spread out a bit, this is a
true toss-up. Switching things up here,
I’ll give a reason why each of these teams will win.
Romeo – The best depth in the entire state. A concept floating around in my head is that
of a security blanket. Romeo can absorb
two of their top five having an off day and still win. The other teams, one, maybe zero.
Brighton – Sweet revenge. Last year, they were a top-3 team all season,
and although Plymouth may have been bound to win, Brighton did not expect to
finish where they did. I don’t need to
mention it and they don’t want to see it.
Clarkston – Joey Taverna.
Taverna had the best race of his season on a tough regional course (I’m
with Jason Kerr on this one, stop having regionals on tracks). His 16:53 at Holly was only 4 seconds faster
than his previous best, but 8 points higher (0:24) than his season average.
Dexter – The emergence of Connor Kolka and Finnegan Bell. Next man up for this determined team. I believe Nathan Larson is due for a breakthrough as well. Might not impact the team scoring that much points wise, but in a tight race like this?
Traverse City Central – Joe Muha’s Northern
Michigan performance. I don’t know much
about this team from the great North, but they dominated what could have been
an interesting Northern Michigan Championship.
Saline – Their consistency. Very few subpar performances, and if someone
doesn’t race to their potential, another guy steps up.
Detroit Catholic Central – Willow. It was barely a competition between the
Shamrocks and three other top-15 teams last Saturday. They’ll need help, I believe, to win.
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek – The single best team
performance this year. Six runners under
16:25 on Goodells, a fair course. They’re
smart racers, but their patience might be a disadvantage at MIS, where getting
out hard is essential.
One thing for certain, Brendan Favazza will make sure
it’s honest. Favazza had a rust-buster against
Solomon and others in this field on a warm day in Holly that didn’t go so
well. He’s been rounding into form as of
late, most recently defeating the best sophomore in the state, Riley Hough.
Owen Huard and Jack Spamer have pushed Solomon
on separate occasions, each falling slightly short. Maybe this is the time they break through?
Zacahry Stewart has #FootLockerExperience and has
been closing the gap on others.
Patrick Byrnes has the best pure unadulterated leg
speed in the field. Great range on this
kid.
But you just can’t discount Carter Solomon. He’s answered every challenge. Some closer than others. He could have mailed it in at Wayne County. He could have saved himself at
Regionals. The 14:42 shows he can handle
a blistering pace, the comeback shows he has heart.
There will be approximately an hour between your sprints
across the infield. I think you can make
it.
Two teams stand above the rest, making it great from a
spectator standpoint. Division 1 Boys
will also be great to spectate, but much harder to visually score (I hope to be
alive when they have live, up to the second scoring). East Grand Rapids vs. Petoskey.
Prior to the season, it looked as if East Grand Rapids was a mortal lock to again win. My preseason projections threw out a score of 56 to 110. Early in the season, especially after a blistering debut at Portage Early Bird, no doubt. After the Charlevoix Mud Run, I began to take a bit more notice in Petoskey. But even then, the Mud Run is one that can exacerbate the gap between runners, as some just shut down at the sight of adverse conditions.
Their first showdown came at Spartan:
Okay, maybe Petoskey was just overrated, nothing to see
here.
Then Portage happened:
Okay, maybe Petoskey wasn’t overrated, much to see
here.
Petoskey owes a ton of credit for Cambrie Smith
moving there, but that’s not the whole story.
Cambrie has dropped over 1:30 from her previous bests, and she was
already very good. The coaching must
play a major role. I’ve said it over and
over, but in order to win, you must have depth.
The Vanderwall siblings, Caroline Farley, and Paige
Harris provide that depth. You must
have development. Emma Squires, Noel
Vanderwall, Anna Vanderwall, and Paige Harris (especially) have
improved more than 5 rating points from last year.
Ainsley Workman didn’t run varsity at Portage and maybe
that helped her kick her season back into gear. She did finish 1st in that JV race,
and when you place her time into the varsity race, that tightens up the score
quite a bit. I’ve mentioned in earlier
previews about runners recapturing form, and that’s precisely what she did in
her regional race, skipping up to a 145 rating.
East Grand Rapids has depth as well, Hannah Bodine and Katie
Hessler should be right in the All-State mix, while Margaret Coney finished
5th here last year.
Here’s how the ratings project the score between these two powerhouses:
Jaden Theis likely has the highest upper range of anyone
in this field. After all, she’s the
defending champion and she has that FootLocker experience. Her season was going without a hitch, on an
uptick from track, until last week’s regional.
Anna Petr made a move in the final 800m to pass both Taryn
Chapko and Theis. She gained the
lead with around 400 to go and ran for her life. I like Petr or Chapko if it comes down to a
kick. Obviously, there’s more to a kick
than just pure speed, but you have a step up when you can run 4:56 like Petr or
58.9 like Chapko. These two have also
not had a bad race all year, an underrated factor in determining who will show
up.
Speaking of consistency, Elka Machan is a great
example of that same concept. No races
below 150 for her. In races where she’s
lost (only three this year), her rating has been above 157 for each.
Madelyn Frens set a blazing time to start this year, a
17:49 at Pete Moss. In races where she’s
been challenged, she’s replicated that effort, with three other sub-18 efforts
to her resume.
Having run 15(!) races this year, one would think a runner
would get burnt out. But no, Makenna
Veen keeps getting results. She brings
it when needed, for example, that 165 rating at Spartan. Her overall rating is lower than all the
others, but in that Spartan race, she beat four of those listed above her. So many moving parts.
Moving upward have been those Petoskey teammates. Cambrie Smith has gone from a 128
overall rating to a 167 (about a 1:57 improvement) and Emma Squires from
a 151 to 157 (18 seconds). When you’re
already good, as Squires had been, it’s really tough to continue to
improve. Once again, kudos to that
Petoskey program for their development.
These ratings are made for teams such as Fremont. I appreciate how rarely they race. It’s great for development, but not great for
comparison. Although which comparisons
are needed when you destroy the fields at Portage and your regionals? They are really the full team, having
frontrunners in Nathan Walker, but also their 3rd-5th
men running above 190. Even if someone blows
up, Colton Best and Mikko Vesma can run at a 180 level.
Otsego looked as if they could challenge Fremont, even beating them early at Spartan. A glance at their results over the course of the year lends belief that they’ve been bit by that injury bug (side note: I hope to bring about some transparency over this in the coming years. I’m not saying XC should have an NFL injury report, but it would be nice to know where your competition stands). Even missing their #3 runner, they can still be a solid second. Colin Mulder and Hunter Zartman are almost guaranteed to place ahead of anyone’s (save Divine Child) first two runners.
Haslett is sort of a smaller Romeo or Stoney Creek. They don’t have any outstanding runners, even their best only on the cusp of the top-20. Yet their front of the pack has extremely low variance. Espen Lehnst, Joseph Ecklund, and Stephen Henry can all be counted on for 185+ ratings.
The Hancock twins (how are they really twins if they’re born on separate days?) are severely underrated by these ratings. They provide an interesting off-season problem to solve. They participate in many races, but obviously don’t go to the well on every one. How can I discern between someone running a slower time because of a poor effort and that of someone running a slower time because they only raced to win?
When needed, they’ve let it known they can run with
anyone. One could sense a certain
motivation to beat Carter Solomon, and although that hasn’t occurred yet, those
battles have placed them in a position only rarely reached, sub-15.
I’m not sure who I’m kidding with “only rarely”. Nathan
Walker and Evan Bishop have both gotten there.
Here’s one reason why each of these fine young men could
win:
Nathan Walker – fresh legs, has only laid it out there four or five times this year Evan Bishop – another case of #FootLockerExperience Anthony Hancock – defending 3200m champ, might just wreck everyone before they get inside the stadium Michael Hancock – did you see his kick at track State?
This is the race you’ll need to sprint across the infield to see.
