Michigan XC Speed Ratings

Girls Rankings: Division 4, Week 3

September 10, 2019 mixcspeedratings

I had a novel thought while running the other day. What if, instead of averaging the top 5, which overrates teams with a great 1st (or 2nd) runner, I just scored out a hypothetical meet with the teams in each division/the whole state. And used that to determine rankings. I had been playing around with weighing the latter runners more, finding out the average 5th runner, etc. But nothing was coming up as more predictive than a hypothetical meet. So here you go:

HYPOTHETICAL MEET – AKA THE ACTUAL RANKINGS

Rank	Team	Region	Score
1	Adrian Lenawee Christian	34	121
2	Bridgman	31	202
3	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	30	209
4	Kalamazoo Christian	32	271
5	Hudson	34	320
6	St. Philip Catholic Central	32	327
7	Carson City-Crystal	30	337
8	Fowler	33	355
9	East Jordan	28	410
10	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	31	416
11	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	36	432
12	Harbor Beach	35	474
13	Owendale-Gagetown	35	503
14	Johannesburg-Lewiston	28	513
15	Allen Park Cabrini	36	526
16	Ubly	35	542
17	Beal City	30	584
18	Breckenridge	35	590
19	Maple City Glen Lake	29	626
20	Frankfort	29	654
21	Plymouth Christian Academy	36	673
22	Libertas Christian	31	680
23	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	29	694
24	Saranac	33	696
25	Deckerville	35	741

I’ll still include the stats I was posting in previous weeks.

TOP 5 AVERAGE

Rank	Team	Average
1	Adrian Lenawee Christian	102.9
2	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	93.7
3	Bridgman	91.8
4	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	85.0
5	Hudson	77.8
6	Kalamazoo Christian	77.3
7	St. Philip Catholic Central	76.4
8	Carson City-Crystal	73.7
9	East Jordan	72.4
10	Fowler	72.4
11	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	66.0
12	Harbor Beach	64.1
13	Ubly	63.1
14	Johannesburg-Lewiston	60.6
15	Owendale-Gagetown	60.2
16	Allen Park Cabrini	58.7
17	Maple City Glen Lake	56.4
18	Breckenridge	53.7
19	Beal City	53.2
20	Plymouth Christian Academy	47.9
21	Saranac	46.4
22	Frankfort	46.1
23	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	45.7
24	Libertas Christian	44.6
25	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	39.7

TOP 7 AVERAGE

Rank	Team	Average
1	Adrian Lenawee Christian	92.3
2	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	76.1
3	Kalamazoo Christian	71.8
4	Bridgman	71.1
5	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	62.5
6	Fowler	61.6
7	East Jordan	56.5
8	Carson City-Crystal	53.4
9	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	52.7
10	Ubly	50.3
11	Allen Park Cabrini	49.2
12	Johannesburg-Lewiston	40.7
13	Breckenridge	37.9
14	Maple City Glen Lake	36.1
15	Saranac	33.8
16	Grand Traverse Academy	27.7
17	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	25.6
18	Plymouth Christian Academy	25.4
19	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	20.8
20	Sand Creek	9.3
21	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	2.0
22	Lutheran HS Westland	-1.4
23	Concord	-3.8
24	Leland	-12.1
25	Whitmore Lake	-12.5

TOP 5 SPREAD

Rank	Team	Spread
1	Kalamazoo Christian	14.7
2	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	33.5
3	Sand Creek	34.1
4	Carson City-Crystal	35.7
5	Grand Traverse Academy	40.8
6	Fowler	41.3
7	Allen Park Cabrini	41.6
8	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	43.8
9	St. Philip Catholic Central	45.0
10	Adrian Lenawee Christian	50.5
11	Hudson	52.9
12	Owendale-Gagetown	53.8
13	Breckenridge	55.9
14	Livingston Christian	56.0
15	Bridgman	56.6
16	East Jordan	56.6
17	Fulton	58.5
18	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	59.3
19	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	64.6
20	Lutheran HS Westland	71.3
21	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	71.7
22	Libertas Christian	78.5
23	Saranac	79.0
24	Vestaburg	79.6
25	Harbor Beach	82.3

TOP 7 SPREAD

Rank	Team	Spread
1	Kalamazoo Christian	30.3
2	Grand Traverse Academy	52.1
3	Adrian Lenawee Christian	64.2
4	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	64.3
5	Allen Park Cabrini	64.4
6	Fowler	72.0
7	Sand Creek	78.4
8	Breckenridge	88.5
9	East Jordan	91.7
10	Carson City-Crystal	92.7
11	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	95.9
12	Saranac	100.6
13	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	102.7
14	Ubly	107.7
15	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	108.2
16	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	112.3
17	Johannesburg-Lewiston	114.6
18	Fulton	124.0
19	Bridgman	130.0
20	White Pigeon	132.3
21	Plymouth Christian Academy	154.5
22	Whitmore Lake	162.8
23	Maple City Glen Lake	164.3
24	Leland	170.3
25	Lutheran HS Westland	179.7

Uncategorized

Top 100 Ratings: Week 3

September 9, 2019 mixcspeedratings

Grade	Name	Team	Rating	Meet
10	Abby VanderKooi	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	182.9	Hill Bale
10	Allison Chmielewski	Roscommon	168.6	Lancer
12	Elka Machan	Coldwater	167.8	Centreville
10	Madelyn Frens	Grand Rapids Christian	165.5	Christian School
9	Arianne Olson	Holland West Ottawa	164.5	Bredeweg
11	Cambrie Smith	Petoskey	163.6	Mud Run
12	Taryn Chapko	St. Johns	161.0	Marauder
11	Emma Squires	Petoskey	161.0	Mud Run
10	Rylee Tolson	Stockbridge	160.0	Springport
10	Lauren Kiley	Plymouth	158.3	Ramblin Rock
12	Elka Machan	Coldwater	156.7	Springport
12	Anna Petr	East Grand Rapids	156.6	Bath
12	Maddy Bean	Richmond	156.4	Muskrat Classic
11	Yasmine Mansi	Northville	156.4	Bath
10	Grace Zdankiewicz	Warren Regina	155.4	Muskrat Classic
10	Madi Wood	Saline	155.1	Bath
11	Elizabeth Babcock	Novi	153.7	Ramblin Rock
10	Chloe Wall	Waterford Kettering	153.6	Tommy Titan
11	Sophie Novak	Lake Orion	153.0	Averill
11	Abbie Draheim	East Lansing	152.6	Bredeweg
10	Kendall Schopieray	Cadillac	151.7	John Bruder
12	Riley Ford	Marlette	151.6	Hatchet
12	Amanda Wood	Macomb Lutheran North	151.5	Muskrat Classic
11	Hannah Bodine	East Grand Rapids	151.2	Bath
11	Reagan Justice	Salem	150.0	Ramblin Rock
12	Kayla Eklund	Richland Gull Lake	149.8	Lakeview
10	Rylee Tolson	Stockbridge	149.2	Bath
9	Hannah Pricco	Lansing Catholic	148.7	Marauder
11	Ellie Voetberg	Portage Central	148.5	Lakeview
12	Ella Schnell	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	147.5	Averill
9	Samantha Cost	Wyandotte Roosevelt	147.3	Warrior Classic
11	Kaitlyn Hynes	DeWitt	145.7	Bath
11	Gabbie Michael	Frankenmuth	145.1	Marauder
12	Abby Olson	Holland West Ottawa	144.6	Bredeweg
12	Gillian Fiene	Holland Christian	144.1	Bredeweg
11	Gabbie Michael	Frankenmuth	143.0	Northwood
12	Katie Hessler	East Grand Rapids	142.2	Bath
9	Liliane Aittama	South Lyon East	142.2	Tommy Titan
12	Brooke Soper	Okemos	142.1	Marauder
12	Lucy Petee	Mason	142.1	John Bruder
9	Abigail Petr	East Grand Rapids	141.9	Bath
10	Lani Bloom	Ithaca	141.7	Marauder
10	Brianna Vojinov	Brownstown Woodhaven	141.4	Warrior Classic
11	Elsa Rusthoven	DeWitt	141.4	Bath
12	Kaylee Thompson	Niles	141.2	Shamrock
12	Michelle Kuipers	Holland Christian	141.2	Bredeweg
12	Jennifer Ohlsson	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	140.9	Averill
12	Natalie Newcombe	Remus Chippewa Hills	140.5	John Bruder
10	Claire Thomson	Clawson	139.7	Tommy Titan
11	Erin Moore	Berrien Springs	139.4	Shamrock
9	Sophia Rhein	Traverse City St. Francis	139.3	Lancer
11	Aiden Grasse	Holt	138.9	Bath
11	Erin Moore	Berrien Springs	138.8	Centreville
10	Cora Kolodge	New Baltimore Anchor Bay	138.8	Muskrat Classic
9	Allison Cornell	Forest Hills Northern	138.5	Bredeweg
11	Andrea Ruiz	Holly	138.4	Bath
10	Haileigh Bissett	North Branch	138.4	Hatchet
10	Alyna Lewis	Parma Western	138.1	Lakeview
12	Sophia DiPiazza	Allendale	137.7	Bredeweg
9	Isabell Kulick	Salem	137.3	Ramblin Rock
10	Taylor Mater-Gerth	Fremont	137.3	Hill Bale
11	Erin Hegarty	Dearborn Divine Child	136.8	Tommy Titan
12	Jelena Prescott	Bad Axe	136.7	Hatchet
10	Ainsley Workman	East Grand Rapids	136.1	Bath
11	Cierra Guay	Benzie Central	136.0	Mud Run
11	Sarah Liederbach	Petoskey	135.7	Mud Run
11	Layla Martini	Kent City	135.7	CM Hornet
10	Lisa Luecke	Allen Park	135.5	Warrior Classic
11	Whitney Currie	Forest Hills Central	135.3	Bredeweg
12	Kiera Snyder	Port Huron Northern	135.1	Muskrat Classic
11	Olivia Millen	Salem	135.0	Ramblin Rock
10	Katie Carothers	Brighton	134.9	Averill
9	Lauren Hunter	Haslett	134.9	Bath
12	Seanna Schmidt	Milan	134.7	Warrior Classic
12	Amanda Kerr	Grand River Preparatory	134.7	Bredeweg
11	Maya Harb	Bloomfield Hills Marian	134.5	Tommy Titan
11	Sophia Potter	Waterford Kettering	134.4	Tommy Titan
11	Paige Anderson	Troy	133.8	Averill
9	Maya Guikema	Jenison	133.7	Bredeweg
12	Lily Connelly	Croswell-Lexington	133.6	Muskrat Classic
11	Tessa Voss	Berkley	133.6	Muskrat Classic
10	Libby Munderloh	St. Louis	133.5	Marauder
11	Tess Piper	Holt	132.7	Bath
11	Lauren Schiller	Oxford	132.7	Muskrat Classic
11	Emily Macina	Zeeland East	132.7	Bredeweg
10	Julia Finley	Belding	132.6	CM Hornet
11	Emily Gordon	Northville	132.5	Bath
9	Emma Netzel	Holt	132.5	Bath
9	Amelia Kashian	Brighton	132.4	Averill
12	Nicole Dillmann	Saline	132.4	Bath
11	Abbie Haupt	Livonia Churchill	132.3	Ramblin Rock
10	Marissa Henry	Salem	132.3	Ramblin Rock
10	Madison Stern	Saline	132.3	Bath
11	Sarah Sheena	Walled Lake Western	132.0	Ramblin Rock
9	Ava Maginity	Boyne City	131.9	Northwood
12	Jenna Allman	Saline	131.9	Bath
12	Desiree McConnell	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	131.7	John Bruder
9	Emma Janesak	Sparta	131.5	CM Hornet
10	Elliott Smith	Traverse City West	131.5	Lancer
12	Margaret Coney	East Grand Rapids	131.4	Bath

Grade	Name	Team	Rating	Meet
12	Carter Solomon	Plymouth	225.8	Tommy Titan
12	Michael Hancock	Dearborn Divine Child	225.7	Tommy Titan
12	Anthony Hancock	Dearborn Divine Child	225.0	Tommy Titan
12	Jack Spamer	Brighton	219.9	Averill
12	Evan Bishop	East Grand Rapids	218.9	Bath
12	Alex Penski	Holt	216.9	Bath
12	Andrew Nolan	Lake Orion	216.5	Averill
12	Zacahry Stewart	Brighton	214.7	Averill
11	Patrick Byrnes	Plymouth	212.8	Tommy Titan
11	Koby Fraaza	Richland Gull Lake	212.1	Lakeview
11	Adugna Moritz	Holt	211.3	Bath
10	Riley Hough	Hartland	210.7	Ramblin Rock
11	Nathan Walker	Fremont	209.9	Hill Bale
11	Hobbs Kessler	Ann Arbor Skyline	208.0	Bath
12	Scott Spaanstra	Brighton	207.4	Averill
9	Hunter Jones	Benzie Central	206.6	Mud Run
12	Shawn Little	Dowagiac Union	205.7	Shamrock
11	Charlie Frank	Dearborn	205.5	Tommy Titan
12	Muaad Abdulaziz	Dearborn	205.5	Tommy Titan
12	Ethan Senti	Zeeland West	205.2	Bredeweg
11	Preston Navarre	Grosse Pointe North	204.5	Muskrat Classic
12	Jozef Meyers	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	203.5	Averill
12	Andrew Lane	East Lansing	203.4	Bredeweg
12	Scott Masterson	Oxford	203.0	Muskrat Classic
11	Talha Syed	Salem	202.7	Ramblin Rock
12	Matt Whyte	Novi	202.3	Ramblin Rock
12	Jack Leman	Edwardsburg	202.2	Centreville
11	Jack Pennewell	St. Clair	201.8	Muskrat Classic
12	Luke Perelli	Detroit Catholic Central	201.6	Averill
11	Adam Thomas	New Baltimore Anchor Bay	201.6	Muskrat Classic
10	Conor Somers	Fremont	201.4	Hill Bale
12	Jason Millis	Davison	200.9	John Bruder
12	Tyler Buchanan	Linden	200.7	Bath
11	Joshua Zerfas	Fremont	200.6	Hill Bale
11	Jude Parks	Rockford	200.0	Bath
10	Jeremy Williams	Lapeer	199.9	Marauder
12	Carter Stoner	Port Huron Northern	199.5	Muskrat Classic
12	Karsin Dass	Ann Arbor Huron	199.2	Bath
12	Tyler Mussen	Plymouth	199.0	Tommy Titan
12	Drew Kolodge	New Baltimore Anchor Bay	198.9	Muskrat Classic
12	Tyler Pritchett	Midland	198.9	Northwood
10	Mason Sumner	Breckenridge	198.3	John Bruder
10	Evan Ross	Brighton	197.7	Averill
12	Elijah Becker	East Grand Rapids	197.5	Bath
10	Josh Frary	Lansing Catholic	197.3	Marauder
11	Johnathan Adair	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	197.0	Centreville
12	Carson Laney	Jonesville	197.0	Springport
11	Nick McArdle	Cass City	196.5	Hatchet
12	Havi Carroll	Hamilton	196.4	Bredeweg
12	Garrett Melling	Hanover-Horton	196.3	Springport
9	Braydon Honsinger	Freeland	196.2	Lancer
11	Braxton Lamey	Ithaca	196.1	Marauder
12	Ashton Walker	Pewamo-Westphalia	195.9	Bath
12	Joseph Farley	Petoskey	195.8	Mud Run
12	Josh Lynch	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	195.8	John Bruder
12	Thomas Young	Ann Arbor Skyline	195.8	Bath
11	Carson Nicoletti	Utica	195.3	Averill
12	Hayden Germain	Pewamo-Westphalia	195.3	Bath
10	Thomas Richards	Traverse City St. Francis	195.3	Lancer
11	Ben Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	194.9	Bath
12	Alexander Dugas	Detroit Catholic Central	194.8	Averill
12	Eli Meder	Lansing Catholic	194.5	Marauder
10	Race Bettich	Stevensville Lakeshore	194.4	Centreville
11	Luke Witvliet	Grandville Calvin Christian	194.4	Christian School
11	Joe Furlan	Bloomingdale	194.1	Bob Teske
11	Ethan Rockburn	Belding	193.9	CM Hornet
11	Corey Bowers	Cedar Springs	193.9	CM Hornet
11	Matthew McClelland	Yale	193.8	Muskrat Classic
11	Brady Neumann	Saginaw Heritage	193.7	Northwood
11	Nathan Faust	East Lansing	193.5	Bredeweg
11	Ben Paige	Fremont	193.4	Hill Bale
12	Jorden Sowash	Owosso	193.1	Bath
12	Kobe Blanco	Charlotte	193.0	Marauder
11	Joseph Michalak	Canton	193.0	Averill
11	Ashton Sheline	Berrien Springs	192.8	Shamrock
12	Stephen Henry	Haslett	192.7	Bath
12	William Minnette	Saline	192.4	Bath
11	Tyler Carlson	Memphis	192.2	Muskrat Classic
12	Caleb Gaffner	Hudsonville Unity Christian	192.0	Christian School
10	Brock Lynch	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	191.9	John Bruder
10	Evan Solomon	Charlevoix	191.8	Mud Run
11	Jacob Meek	Northville	191.7	Bath
12	Justin Childers	Rochester Adams	191.7	Averill
12	Lance Jourdan	Grandville Calvin Christian	191.6	Christian School
12	Ellis Mason	Greenville	191.3	CM Hornet
12	Jack Luymes	Grand Rapids Christian	191.3	Christian School
11	Colttion Vine	Breckenridge	191.2	John Bruder
11	Gary Gardella	Salem	191.0	Ramblin Rock
11	Ashton Sheline	Berrien Springs	190.8	Centreville
12	Alex Speigle	Livonia Stevenson	190.3	Bath
12	Isaac Darragh	Ann Arbor Skyline	190.2	Bath
11	Matthew Nowak	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	190.2	John Bruder
10	Owen Gilbert	Battle Creek Harper Creek	190.2	Lakeview
12	Grant Hoffmeyer	Canton	189.7	Averill
12	Alex Beloiu	Northville	189.7	Bath
12	Hunter Richards	Yale	189.4	Muskrat Classic
12	Ryan Kachnowski	Walled Lake Western	189.3	Ramblin Rock
11	Jordan Buckner	Flushing	189.3	Bath
12	Caleb Swart	Lowell	189.3	Bredeweg
9	Michael Hegarty	Dearborn Divine Child	189.2	Tommy Titan

Uncategorized

9/7 Weekend Preview: Part Two

September 6, 2019September 6, 2019 mixcspeedratings

Lancer

Girls: How good can Reese be? They’ve been showing up on my lists on the strength of their top-5 spread. It’s good to run in a pack, but that pack needs to be near the front of a race to really make some headway. Allison Galsterer and Allison Hawken are two girls capable of getting there, having both run under 22:00 in their careers.

Muskrat Classic

Boys: Port Huron Northern vs. Oxford. If anyone saw my twitter complaint yesterday, this is a meet that does the right thing. It may be early in the season, but you’re getting a regional preview if you’re in this region. Two teams in that region that are running here are PHN and Oxford. They’ll also be in contention for that third spot. Romeo and Stoney Creek are a given, and Lake Orion might be there as well. But Oxford handily beat Lake Orion in the OAA Red Jamboree this week.

Averill

Girls: Audrey DaDamio vs. the world. In her debut, she ran an uncontested 18:02 at the OAA Red Jamboree. That Troy course she ran it on was described as a “disaster” by a similarly obsessed XC fan who I work with. She’ll have a bit more competition this weekend, Jennifer Ohlsson is capable of some fast times as well. Here’s a list of what athleticnet deems to be the fastest times ever run on this notoriously difficult course.

Lakeview

Boys: Richland Gull Lake vs. Hastings. In the top-5 average, Gull Lake is ahead of Hastings, but that’s largely on the legs of Koby Fraaza and Read Knapp. They have a freshman in Wyatt McComb who ran 18:54 in his first invitational. They’ll need a few more to move up to contend in this region, but that’s a good start.

Warrior Classic

Girls: Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard vs. Milan vs. Grosse Ile. Tecumseh is looking strong, Divine Child always reloads no matter what, another team needs to come out of Region 18. My untrained eye saw a very composed Gabriel Richard team at A2 Early Bird. Early races tend to have kids get out much too fast and pay the price, their girls were under control the entire way. Milan and Grosse Ile faced off at their Puddle Jumpers meet, but I get the sense that they’re racing for real now.

Hill and Bale

Boys: We finally get to see Fremont. Nathan Walker has been hitting faster times than Riley Klingel (RIP) in their early season workouts. Riley was a 15:10-20 kid when it mattered, when he also seemed to shine. I really admired that guy.