Uncategorized – Page 196 – Michigan XC Speed Ratings

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#23 Chelsea

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

With essentially four teams battling for two spots, good luck figuring this one out!

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Chelsea	75	1.1	92	95+
2	Tecumseh	99	2.5		85
3	Adrian	110	3.5		45
4	Monroe Jefferson	110	3.5		49
5	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	122	4.4		21
6	Carleton Airport	148	6.0
7	New Boston Huron	181	7.8
8	Grosse Ile	185	8.0
9	Riverview	186	8.2
10	Dundee	256	10.1
11	Milan	270	10.9
12	Ypsilanti	323	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	1.9
2	12	Jenna Pilachowski	Monroe Jefferson	2.1
3	11	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	2.6
4	12	Anastee Davis	Adrian	4.0
5	9	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	5.4
6	12	Cecilia Ortega	Carleton Airport	7.2
7	11	Madison Morris	Tecumseh	7.4
8	12	Sparrow Centeno	Southgate Anderson	8.3
9	10	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	8.8
10	11	Courtney Bovair	Carleton Airport	10.2
11	10	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	10.3
12	10	Samantha Bieber	Chelsea	12.2
13	12	Riley Peer	Monroe Jefferson	15.9
14	12	Daniela Hinojos	Riverview	16.7
15	10	Alyssa Korte	Grosse Ile	17.2
16	9	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	17.9
17	12	Erin Stuk	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	18.3
18	11	Kim Miller	Monroe Jefferson	19.4
19	10	Claire Cousineau	Tecumseh	20.3
20	11	Marisa Chuey	Trenton	22.2
21	12	Seren Angus	Chelsea	22.5
22	11	Kaylee Hovey	Dundee	23.2
23	10	Avery Boggs	Riverview	23.3
24	9	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	26.1
25	9	Maya Whelan	Tecumseh	26.2
26	11	Lauren Thompson	Chelsea	26.9
27	10	Avery Faut	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	27.8
28	11	Avery Dent	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	28.3
29	9	London Landini	Tecumseh	29.2
30	9	Leila Morris	Tecumseh	30.0

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#7 Adrian
#22 Chelsea

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Adrian leaving their footprint all over the top-20 leaves many individual spots further back to 21st.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Adrian	36	1.0	95+	95+
2	Chelsea	69	2.0		95+
3	New Boston Huron	100	3.0		95+
4	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	128	4.1
5	Riverview	156	5.1
6	Monroe Jefferson	172	6.1
7	Tecumseh	186	7.0
8	Carleton Airport	196	7.7
9	Dundee	248	9.2
10	Grosse Ile	266	10.0
11	Ypsilanti	289	10.9
12	Milan	326	11.9
13	Summit Academy North	403	13.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Connell Alford	Chelsea	1.0
2	12	Braylon Petty	Adrian	2.4
3	12	Logan Ruffner	Riverview	2.7
4	10	Moises Salazar	Adrian	4.1
5	11	Lucas Kuhn	New Boston Huron	6.2
6	11	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	6.4
7	12	Matthew Canales	Adrian	7.3
8	10	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	10.2
9	12	Abdul Ghennewa	New Boston Huron	10.5
10	12	Hayden Holmes	Riverview	11.6
11	12	Jackson Dell	Chelsea	11.8
12	12	Chase Nyack	Adrian	12.2
13	9	Carter Fenner	Adrian	13.3
14	12	Jackson Nyack	Adrian	14.1
15	10	Beckett Boos	Chelsea	15.0
16	12	Grant Fahle	Tecumseh	16.3
17	9	Silas Skeels	Adrian	17.1
18	10	Linus Helzerman	Chelsea	17.3
19	11	Callum Bell	Carleton Airport	19.6
20	12	Sunishthh Singh	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	20.0
21	12	Luke Bounerba	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	20.8
22	10	Joseph Horn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	24.0
23	9	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	24.6
24	10	William Dobbertin	Carleton Airport	25.6
25	12	Israel Garcia	Riverview	27.9
26	12	William Steinhour	Monroe Jefferson	28.0
27	11	Malaki Muhammud	Ypsilanti	28.9
28	11	Brant Maley	Chelsea	30.8
29	12	Gabriel Natividad	Trenton	31.2
30	10	Matthew Carbajo	Grosse Ile	31.7

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Ann Arbor Pioneer
#7 Saline

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Two dominant teams knock individuals down to 23^rd place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Saline	49	2.0		95+
3	Brownstown Woodhaven	102	3.0		95+
4	Temperance Bedford	165	4.2
5	Allen Park	178	5.4
6	Monroe	181	5.7
7	Wyandotte Roosevelt	193	6.7
8	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	220	8.2
9	Detroit Cass Tech	242	9.0
10	Gibraltar Carlson	259	9.8
11	Dearborn	304	11.1
12	Lincoln Park	359	12.5
13	Belleville	372	13.0
14	Dearborn Edsel Ford	403	13.9
15	Detroit Martin Luther King	430	14.7
16	Dearborn Fordson	466	15.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Rachel Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	12	Lydia Bowman	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.3
3	12	Elaina (Laney) Alig	Saline	4.0
4	12	Payton Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	4.8
5	9	Anyla Robinson	Detroit Cass Tech	4.9
6	12	Natalie Mello	Ann Arbor Pioneer	5.8
7	11	Corynn Gady	Saline	7.5
8	10	Lillian Schlack	Saline	7.9
9	12	Sylvia Sanok Dufallo	Ann Arbor Pioneer	8.6
10	12	Katie Hume	Ann Arbor Pioneer	9.7
11	10	Quincy Behm	Ann Arbor Pioneer	11.5
12	9	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer	12.7
13	9	Iva Ravindra	Temperance Bedford	14.2
14	9	Sophie Roth	Saline	14.2
15	12	Viktoria Bloniarz	Monroe	14.8
16	9	Hope Noal	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.5
17	12	Nancy Gage	Saline	16.9
18	10	Eleanor Grant	Wyandotte Roosevelt	18.7
19	11	Mackenzie Sellenraad	Saline	18.9
20	11	Abby Roth	Saline	19.2
21	12	Batoul Hamka	Dearborn	21.4
22	12	Claire Bireta	Allen Park	21.4
23	10	Sarah Wazne	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	23.5
24	9	Reagan Reaume	Gibraltar Carlson	24.4
25	11	Raelyn McLaughlin	Brownstown Woodhaven	25.9
26	10	Elliana Perugi	Brownstown Woodhaven	26.9
27	12	Lauren Moreno	Wyandotte Roosevelt	28.2
28	10	Anna Coury	Monroe	28.8
29	10	Joslyn Bechtol	Brownstown Woodhaven	30.4
30	11	Anahi Chapa	Allen Park	30.7

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#5 Ann Arbor Pioneer
#20 Saline

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Weighing out the percentages and last qualifiers between Bedford, AP, Woodhaven advancing, I’m coming out on 21^st place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	27	1.0	95+	95+
2	Saline	50	2.0		95+
3	Temperance Bedford	114	3.8		45
4	Brownstown Woodhaven	115	3.9		35
5	Allen Park	119	4.5		19
6	Monroe	138	5.9
7	Dearborn	219	7.1
8	Wyandotte Roosevelt	237	8.2
9	Gibraltar Carlson	251	8.8
10	Belleville	312	10.3
11	Detroit Cass Tech	324	10.9
12	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	353	12.1
13	Lincoln Park	366	12.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.1
2	12	Truman Johnson	Saline	2.3
3	12	Vincent Peterson Sand	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.0
4	12	Eric Overdier	Ann Arbor Pioneer	5.5
5	10	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	5.7
6	12	Andrew Foshag	Monroe	6.7
7	10	Pierce Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	7.9
8	9	Jacob Szalay	Saline	8.9
9	10	Brennan LaRusso	Saline	9.0
10	12	Caleb Wynn	Allen Park	10.2
11	10	Alex Vazquez	Brownstown Woodhaven	12.9
12	10	Theo Sacks-Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer	13.6
13	10	Dane Hieronimus	Temperance Bedford	13.8
14	11	Brady Boroniec	Allen Park	13.9
15	11	Saman Meshinchi	Saline	14.2
16	12	Patrick Donoghue	Ann Arbor Pioneer	15.0
17	12	Koen Lanker	Saline	16.4
18	12	Grayson Albers	Ypsilanti Lincoln	18.3
19	12	Evan Smith	Brownstown Woodhaven	20.4
20	12	Joey Stevenson	Ann Arbor Pioneer	20.9
21	9	John (Jack) Klein	Saline	21.1
22	11	Myles Bray	Monroe	21.6
23	9	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	22.2
24	11	William Rosales	Saline	24.8
25	12	Matthew Mizzi	Allen Park	26.4
26	11	Jordan Bunce	Temperance Bedford	27.3
27	11	Reggie Geftos	Monroe	28.4
28	11	Aidan Ortiz	Temperance Bedford	28.9
29	12	Ethan Johnson	Wyandotte Roosevelt	31.1
30	10	Nicholas Balla	Temperance Bedford	31.5

Uncategorized

2023 Regional Projections – Willow Regional

October 27, 2023October 26, 2023 mixcspeedratings

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#14 Monroe St. Mary CC
#15 Clinton
#19 Grass Lake
#20 Ann Arbor Greenhills
#24 Blissfield

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Monroe St. Mary CC	65	1.6	56	95+
2	Clinton	67	1.8	35	95+
3	Grass Lake	81	3.3		61
4	Ann Arbor Greenhills	85	3.7	6	35
5	Blissfield	92	4.6		6
6	Ida	174	6.4
7	Erie Mason	177	6.6
8	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	207	8.2
9	Manchester	219	8.8
10	Detroit Cristo Rey	306	10.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	1.0
2	10	Hope Miller	Blissfield	2.7
3	10	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	3.1
4	12	Cylee Elkins	Clinton	3.9
5	11	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock	4.8
6	12	Allison Bowles	Clinton	6.4
7	10	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	8.0
8	9	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	8.2
9	12	Anika Bery	Ann Arbor Greenhills	11.2
10	12	Ava Viegelahn	Grass Lake	12.2
11	12	Samantha LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	12.7
12	12	Katelyn Bydlowski	Ida	12.9
13	12	Samantha Coots	Clinton	13.5
14	9	Adeline Stormont	Grass Lake	15.1
15	11	Grace Bullock	Grass Lake	15.1
16	11	Claire Lisker	Monroe St. Mary CC	16.0
17	12	June Miller	Blissfield	17.5
18	10	Julia Hughes	Ida	18.0
19	9	Juleigh Husby	Monroe St. Mary CC	18.3
20	9	Elise Bullock	Grass Lake	19.7
21	11	Bailey Meiring	Erie Mason	20.1
22	10	Aurelia Bennett	Clinton	22.9
23	12	Lydia Bennett	Manchester	23.5
24	10	Leona Knudsen	Monroe St. Mary CC	23.9
25	12	Vic Cunningham	Ann Arbor Greenhills	24.5
26	9	Braelynn Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	26.1
27	12	Ava Kittendorf	Ann Arbor Greenhills	27.9
28	12	Navya Ashok	Ann Arbor Greenhills	29.2
29	11	Sarah King	Clinton	30.3
30	9	Kayle Babowicz	Flat Rock	30.9

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#18 Flat Rock
#20 Clinton
#23 Ann Arbor Greenhills

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Flat Rock	82	1.2	77	95+
2	Clinton	92	2.4	12	91
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	94	2.6	11	87
4	Monroe St. Mary CC	107	3.9		21
5	Erie Mason	126	5.1
6	Grass Lake	139	5.8
7	Manchester	176	7.3
8	Blissfield	184	7.9
9	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	198	8.9
10	Ida	245	10.0
11	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	268	11.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Keegan Masters	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	1.2
2	10	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	1.8
3	10	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	3.2
4	11	Nathan Vargo	Flat Rock	4.3
5	9	Cole Hillegonds	Clinton	6.2
6	12	Lincoln Cha	Ann Arbor Greenhills	7.1
7	10	Grant Johnson	Manchester	7.6
8	11	Ian Waddell	Blissfield	8.8
9	12	Lucas Goodman	Clinton	10.5
10	11	Gabe Manchester	Clinton	10.7
11	11	Parker Campbell	Erie Mason	12.7
12	11	Austin Sulier	Erie Mason	12.7
13	11	Mason Stranahan	Ann Arbor Greenhills	12.7
14	10	Max Foldvary	Monroe St. Mary CC	13.5
15	12	Simon VanderVlucht	Monroe St. Mary CC	14.1
16	12	Dylan Tengler	Ida	14.4
17	10	Henry Beck	Ann Arbor Greenhills	14.6
18	9	Zack Buttigieg	Grass Lake	18.4
19	12	Hunter Anderson	Manchester	20.3
20	12	William Marks	Blissfield	22.0
21	12	Zach Kahn	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	22.3
22	10	Henry Wickenheiser	Monroe St. Mary CC	22.9
23	11	Eric Ramsey	Clinton	23.3
24	10	Alex Holda	Grass Lake	26.0
25	10	Jackson Carner	Erie Mason	27.0
26	10	Nico Aagesen	Ann Arbor Greenhills	27.5
27	9	Domingo Decoster-Elizondo	Grass Lake	28.9
28	10	Luke Stanley	Ida	29.4
29	11	Kevin Roberts	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	30.7
30	11	Caleb Totten	Monroe St. Mary CC	31.2

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#6 Northville
#25 Livonia Franklin

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

With 5(!) teams in contention for the 3^rd spot, your guess is as good as mine.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Northville	47	1.0	95+	95+
2	Livonia Franklin	108	2.3		95+
3	Salem	133	4.3		30
4	Farmington	133	4.3		33
5	Livonia Churchill	140	5.3		14
6	Livonia Stevenson	142	5.4		14
7	Ann Arbor Huron	145	5.7		13
8	Canton	165	7.8
9	Plymouth	234	9.4
10	Farmington Hills Mercy	240	9.7
11	Oak Park	282	11.3
12	Detroit Renaissance	292	11.7
13	Wayne Memorial	384	13.1
14	Westland John Glenn	434	13.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Cassie Garcia	Northville	1.8
2	12	Morgan Brown	Livonia Churchill	2.2
3	12	Ella Christensen	Northville	2.2
4	12	Layla Krayem	Livonia Stevenson	4.0
5	11	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	5.5
6	11	Molly Baracco	Farmington	7.8
7	11	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	10.5
8	10	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	10.7
9	9	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	10.7
10	10	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill	11.1
11	11	Catherine Steele	Farmington	11.6
12	10	Molly Kate Coates	Northville	11.7
13	9	Colette Lozo	Northville	12.0
14	12	Emerson Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	12.3
15	11	Lucinda Paliani	Ann Arbor Huron	13.6
16	12	Sonya Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	15.8
17	12	Kylee King	Oak Park	17.9
18	10	McKinnon Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	18.0
19	10	Annabelle Beloiu	Northville	21.8
20	11	Rosie Gregory	Northville	21.9
21	10	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	23.7
22	12	Nora Schley	Canton	24.0
23	9	Julie Schuessler	Livonia Churchill	24.4
24	12	Lily Hetzel	Salem	24.8
25	12	Aliya Kurian	Plymouth	25.1
26	11	Elaina Braunscheidel	Livonia Stevenson	27.1
27	10	Rebecca Jud	Salem	28.1
28	12	Lily Connors	Northville	28.5
29	11	Lauren Bickerdt	Detroit Renaissance	29.1
30	9	Katelyn Parrish	Farmington	29.9

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#1 Northville
#4 Canton
#15 Livonia Churchill
#24 Plymouth

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

23^rd or 24^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Northville	31	1.0	95+	95+
2	Canton	50	2.0		95+
3	Livonia Churchill	82	3.1		90
4	Plymouth	99	3.9		10
5	Ann Arbor Huron	150	5.5
6	Salem	154	5.6
7	Detroit U-D Jesuit	199	7.1
8	Livonia Stevenson	218	7.9
9	Farmington	277	9.1
10	Livonia Franklin	302	9.9
11	Detroit Renaissance	323	10.9
12	Wayne Memorial	391	12.0
13	Westland John Glenn	413	13.1
14	Oak Park	426	13.9
15	Ferndale	460	15.2
16	Detroit Mumford	471	15.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brendan Herger	Northville	1.1
2	11	Ethan Powell	Northville	1.9
3	12	Mitchell Clark	Canton	4.5
4	10	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	4.5
5	10	Benjamin Hartigan	Northville	6.2
6	12	Ian Lewis	Livonia Churchill	8.0
7	11	Malcolm Spiegle	Livonia Churchill	8.4
8	12	Anirudh Krishnan	Plymouth	8.7
9	11	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	9.8
10	11	Logan Mullan	Detroit U-D Jesuit	10.7
11	11	Nick Barretto	Northville	11.0
12	11	Adam Dicken	Canton	11.2
13	11	Clark Madden	Canton	14.8
14	12	Nicholas Yaquinto	Northville	15.6
15	9	Brandon Cloud	Northville	16.6
16	11	Joseph Rohmfeld	Livonia Churchill	17.0
17	10	Steven Dusseau	Canton	17.6
18	12	Brandon Blandino	Canton	18.6
19	11	Ben Mussen	Plymouth	18.9
20	12	Joey Seale	Salem	19.4
21	11	Chase Wolters	Livonia Churchill	19.5
22	11	Cole Triffle	Canton	20.3
23	11	Jonah Kraft	Ann Arbor Huron	22.8
24	11	Walker Brose	Ann Arbor Huron	23.7
25	11	Ishaan Kundapur	Northville	25.6
26	12	Alex Eplin	Livonia Stevenson	26.7
27	10	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth	27.2
28	10	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill	29.4
29	12	Lucas Weintraub	Ann Arbor Huron	30.5
30	12	Mitchell Robillard	Salem	31.5

Uncategorized

2023 Regional Projections: Portage Central (Saturday)

October 26, 2023October 26, 2023 mixcspeedratings

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#18 Buchanan
#27 Bridgman

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th-17^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Buchanan	60	1.1	90	95+
2	Bridgman	81	2.0	10	95+
3	Union City	106	3.5		51
4	Schoolcraft	106	3.6		50
5	Kalamazoo Christian	128	5.0
6	Niles Brandywine	144	6.0
7	Watervliet	155	6.8
8	Lawton	192	8.2
9	Olivet	207	8.8
10	Hartford	269	10.1
11	Bangor	297	11.0
12	Constantine	343	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	1.6
2	12	Angel Miller	Parchment	3.6
3	9	Alli Gautsche	Union City	3.9
4	11	Emma Miller	Buchanan	5.9
5	11	Madeline Young	Buchanan	6.6
6	12	Morgan Lowell	Watervliet	6.9
7	12	Olivea Gessner	Olivet	7.4
8	11	Clara Fast	Bridgman	7.6
9	10	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	8.2
10	11	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	8.6
11	11	Skyler Fraley	Union City	10.3
12	10	Alaina Nagel	Buchanan	12.3
13	11	Melanie Warren	Bridgman	12.3
14	11	Kimberly Romero	Watervliet	15.7
15	11	Emily Howell	Bridgman	17.5
16	10	Adyson Baker	Buchanan	17.6
17	12	Jenna VanDussen	Schoolcraft	18.2
18	9	Hadley Camp	Lawton	19.0
19	10	Sydney Olson	Niles Brandywine	19.4
20	11	Aubree Murray	Niles Brandywine	20.8
21	11	Alissa Skirka	Union City	21.7
22	12	Alyssa VanDussen	Schoolcraft	23.4
23	11	Lucy Bray	Kalamazoo Christian	24.3
24	11	Marykate Thomas	Kalamazoo Christian	25.7
25	11	Miley Young	Niles Brandywine	26.0
26	10	Makynna Williams	Buchanan	26.5
27	9	Brooke Schlutt	Buchanan	27.1
28	9	Anika Weurding	Lawton	27.2
29	11	Addison Blodgett	Schoolcraft	28.0
30	11	Lillian Wolf	Hartford	29.8

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#17 Buchanan
#22 Olivet

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Top-15! With a bit weaker teams compared to individuals, expect the top spots in the region to be comprised of additional qualifiers.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Buchanan	66	1.0	95+	95+
2	Olivet	85	2.0		95+
3	Union City	124	3.2		81
4	Bridgman	145	4.2		18
5	Constantine	169	5.7
6	Bloomingdale	177	6.1
7	Schoolcraft	183	6.5
8	Kalamazoo Christian	198	7.5
9	Parchment	234	9.1
10	Coloma	256	10.4
11	Bangor	269	11.2
12	Watervliet	281	11.8
13	Hartford	297	12.4
14	Galesburg-Augusta	346	14.0
15	Lawton	410	15.0
16	Comstock	477	16.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Boden Genovese	Coloma	1.3
2	12	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	2.4
3	12	Lucas Hopkins	Olivet	3.0
4	11	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	3.7
5	10	Ben Gautsche	Union City	4.9
6	11	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	7.0
7	12	Conner Fountain	Olivet	7.3
8	11	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	7.6
9	10	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	9.9
10	11	Robbie King	Constantine	11.2
11	12	Britain Philip	Buchanan	11.6
12	10	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	13.3
13	10	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	13.8
14	11	Tyler Caruso	Bangor	15.4
15	11	Elliot Cole	Parchment	16.0
16	11	Coy Weinberg	Buchanan	17.2
17	11	Carter Stevens	Galesburg-Augusta	18.1
18	12	Aiden Cripe	Coloma	19.8
19	11	Keagan Cole	Parchment	20.5
20	9	Cullen Decker	Union City	21.6
21	10	Alessandro Avila	Constantine	21.9
22	12	William Rodriquez	Bridgman	23.3
23	12	Daniel Dryer	Olivet	23.9
24	12	Brad Salmon	Bridgman	24.1
25	11	Zack Mitchell	Kalamazoo Christian	24.4
26	10	Evan Schaefer	Olivet	24.7
27	11	Cohen Burdick	Union City	28.7
28	9	Landen Gessner	Olivet	29.2
29	12	Jacob Williams	Kalamazoo Christian	30.6
30	11	Logan Patmalnieks	Constantine	31.2

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Otsego
#10 St. Joseph

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Around 19^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	St. Joseph	61	2.0		95+
3	Stevensville Lakeshore	129	3.2		81
4	Sturgis	146	4.4		11
5	Plainwell	152	5.0		8
6	Three Rivers	164	6.1
7	Paw Paw	172	6.6
8	Niles	189	7.9
9	Vicksburg	207	8.9
10	Edwardsburg	258	10.0
11	Allegan	299	11.3
12	Berrien Springs	305	11.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Gail Vaikutis	St. Joseph	1.4
2	11	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	1.9
3	10	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	3.5
4	12	Logan Brazee	Otsego	3.7
5	12	Megan Germain	Otsego	5.1
6	10	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	7.1
7	12	Emma Steele	Vicksburg	8.7
8	11	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	8.8
9	11	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	8.9
10	11	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	10.7
11	10	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	12.2
12	9	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	12.7
13	12	Jennifer Hernandez-Medina	Three Rivers	13.0
14	10	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	13.7
15	12	Jade Murdoch	St. Joseph	14.2
16	11	Charlie Drew	Niles	16.6
17	10	Kate Ort	Stevensville Lakeshore	18.2
18	9	Sydney Timmons	Otsego	19.6
19	12	Cecilia Ruchti	St. Joseph	20.5
20	10	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	21.8
21	11	Emma Taggett	Plainwell	23.7
22	9	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	24.4
23	10	Jayden VandenAkker	Allegan	24.4
24	10	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	24.5
25	11	Annika DeJong	Stevensville Lakeshore	25.4
26	9	Lydia Johnson	St. Joseph	25.4
27	10	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph	25.8
28	9	Sophia Lemieux	Paw Paw	26.0
29	12	Anezka Pradna	Three Rivers	26.3
30	9	Lily Cummings	St. Joseph	28.6

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#9 Otsego
#16 Plainwell

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

The battle for the third team is wide open, so fight for the top-15 and every spot after.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	49	1.1	87	95+
2	Plainwell	61	1.9	13	95+
3	Edwardsburg	136	3.5		64
4	Three Rivers	145	4.5		19
5	Paw Paw	153	4.9		12
6	St. Joseph	161	5.8		5
7	Vicksburg	168	6.4
8	Berrien Springs	212	8.5
9	Niles	217	8.6
10	Sturgis	255	10.3

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Aiden Krueger	Niles	2.2
2	12	Shay White	St. Joseph	3.1
3	11	Henry Cox	Plainwell	3.3
4	11	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	4.9
5	11	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	5.3
6	11	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	7.2
7	12	Dane Bailey	Edwardsburg	8.5
8	12	Isaac Veen	Plainwell	9.0
9	11	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	10.2
10	10	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	10.7
11	11	Noah Jarvis	Berrien Springs	11.6
12	11	Logan VanHouten	Otsego	11.7
13	9	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	12.5
14	10	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	12.9
15	12	Matthew Schreiner	Otsego	14.4
16	12	Liam Troutner	Plainwell	17.0
17	11	Maguire Johnson	Edwardsburg	17.0
18	11	Holten Mulherin	Otsego	17.8
19	11	Skye Smith	Vicksburg	21.4
20	11	Nolan Park	Sturgis	21.8
21	11	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	21.9
22	10	Trent Hansen	Plainwell	22.3
23	12	Eddy Charron	Paw Paw	23.5
24	11	Billy Pipkorn	Plainwell	24.5
25	9	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	24.8
26	11	Jon Leith	Edwardsburg	27.9
27	9	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	28.3
28	10	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	28.6
29	9	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	29.3
30	12	Aden Webber	Paw Paw	31.3

Category: Uncategorized

2023 Regional Projections: Lake Erie Regional

GIRLS

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2023 Regional Projections – Willow Regional

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2023 Regional Projections: Portage Central (Saturday)

GIRLS

BOYS

GIRLS

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