Uncategorized – Page 197 – Michigan XC Speed Ratings

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Johannesburg-Lewiston
#5 Harbor Springs

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st or 22^nd place. Since Joburg and HS are so strong up front, these numbers get pushed back a tad.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Johannesburg-Lewiston	31	1.0	95+	95+
2	Harbor Springs	51	2.0		95+
3	Petoskey St. Michael	103	3.1		87
4	Gaylord St. Mary	113	3.9		12
5	East Jordan	127	5.2
6	Rogers City	138	5.8
7	Bellaire	160	7.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	1.1
2	11	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	2.7
3	12	Miriam Murrell	Gaylord St. Mary	4.0
4	9	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	4.1
5	10	Yolanda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.4
6	12	Madalyn Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.7
7	9	Harlie Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.8
8	11	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	6.8
9	9	Avery Langlois	Rogers City	9.0
10	9	Elizabeth Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes	11.6
11	9	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	13.9
12	10	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	14.0
13	9	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	14.3
14	11	McKenzie Bowman	Harbor Springs	14.7
15	12	Cora Mullins	Johannesburg-Lewiston	15.7
16	9	Julia Clarke	Harbor Springs	17.0
17	11	Elke Knauf	East Jordan	17.2
18	12	Rosalinda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	18.1
19	9	Genevieve Rodham	Harbor Springs	18.7
20	12	Sydney Feagan	Petoskey St. Michael	19.3
21	9	Ruby Pletcher	Ellsworth	19.3
22	9	Avary Bearden	East Jordan	21.1
23	11	Grace Hayhurst	Harbor Springs	21.2
24	10	Bailey Thompson	Gaylord St. Mary	23.9
25	9	Isabella Hocking	Bellaire	26.3
26	10	Taylor Hefele	Rogers City	26.9
27	12	Jessie Ross	Fairview	28.6
28	12	Alex Dawson	Bellaire	29.5
29	9	Madison Fiedorek	East Jordan	29.6
30	9	Maya Dodd	Gaylord St. Mary	29.9

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#2 Johannesburg-Lewiston
#9 Harbor Springs
#20 Petoskey St. Michael

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

With the top-3 squads dominating the lower finishes, 21^st place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Johannesburg-Lewiston	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Harbor Springs	58	2.0		95+
3	Petoskey St. Michael	78	3.0		95+
4	Lincoln-Alcona	119	4.7
5	East Jordan	128	5.1
6	Fairview	134	5.6
7	Ellsworth	149	7.0
8	Mackinaw City	159	7.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Malaki Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	1.7
2	12	Blake Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	2.2
3	11	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	2.5
4	10	Lynus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	3.9
5	10	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	5.3
6	12	Trevor Clarke	Harbor Springs	7.7
7	10	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	8.5
8	10	Adam Ferguson	Harbor Springs	9.0
9	11	Russell Vandermus	Petoskey St. Michael	10.5
10	12	Logan Kihnke	Harbor Springs	11.6
11	11	Austin Sneed	East Jordan	12.1
12	12	Dusty Layman	Johannesburg-Lewiston	12.3
13	10	Cole Brege	Rogers City	15.1
14	12	Carter Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	15.8
15	8	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	16.3
16	10	Max Vroman	Harbor Springs	16.4
17	10	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	17.2
18	10	Nicholas Trader	Fairview	19.9
19	11	Jacob Chamberlain	East Jordan	20.0
20	11	Drake Fulton	Johannesburg-Lewiston	20.6
21	12	Tyler DeYoung	Ellsworth	20.7
22	11	Teddy Krieger	Harbor Springs	20.9
23	12	Patrick Puroll	Ellsworth	22.2
24	12	Isaac Black	East Jordan	24.4
25	10	Sean Bernard	Hale	24.6
26	10	Darren Boyat	Lincoln-Alcona	24.7
27	9	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview	26.5
28	10	Braylon Currie	Mackinaw City	28.5
29	11	Logan McMullen	Indian River Inland Lakes	30.2
30	10	Paxton Downing	Hale	30.8

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Traverse City St. Francis
#5 Elk Rapids

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st Place. Should be pretty easy to spot the additional qualifiers.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	29	1.0	95+	95+
2	Elk Rapids	46	2.0		95+
3	Clare	119	3.0		95+
4	Grayling	157	4.6
5	Charlevoix	162	4.9
6	Boyne City	172	5.8
7	Kalkaska	187	6.9
8	Farwell	200	7.8
9	Tawas	234	9.8
10	Mancelona	235	9.9
11	Standish-Sterling	238	10.3

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	1.0
2	10	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	3.1
3	9	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	3.6
4	11	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	4.6
5	9	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	5.1
6	11	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	6.2
7	12	Maddie Gallagher	Traverse City St. Francis	6.7
8	10	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	7.2
9	11	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	10.0
10	10	Sarah Trojanowski	Traverse City St. Francis	12.1
11	12	Tessa Wohlschlegel	Beaverton	12.9
12	12	Emily Anger	Mancelona	13.0
13	10	Delaney Little	Boyne City	13.6
14	12	Eva Pray	Elk Rapids	13.8
15	12	Jaida Schulte	Elk Rapids	14.0
16	12	Margot Hagerty	Traverse City St. Francis	16.5
17	12	Ella Peck	Elk Rapids	17.8
18	9	Nico Triebold	Grayling	18.1
19	10	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	18.3
20	9	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	19.0
21	10	Myah Little	Kalkaska	19.4
22	9	Elizabeth Letherer	Clare	20.2
23	9	Lauren Leis	Clare	23.7
24	12	Katie Rohrer	Charlevoix	25.5
25	10	Joelle Swanson	Elk Rapids	25.8
26	10	Laura Spyker	Standish-Sterling	26.7
27	10	Cambrynne Giem	Boyne City	28.2
28	12	Jocelyn Millikin	Grayling	30.7
29	9	Davylynn Christie	Standish-Sterling	33.3
30	11	Adrianna Soria	Grayling	33.5

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#1 Traverse City St. Francis
#10 Clare
#16 Charlevoix
#19 Kalkaska
#26 Elk Rapids

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

The #GladPack should occupy many spots in the top-15, after that, individuals can be for the taking. 21^st-22^nd place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	31	1.0	95+	95+
2	Clare	69	2.0		95+
3	Charlevoix	93	3.2		77
4	Kalkaska	102	3.8		23
5	Elk Rapids	121	5.0
6	Boyne City	200	6.6
7	Roscommon	206	6.9
8	Grayling	218	7.6
9	Mancelona	296	9.8
10	Standish-Sterling	296	10.0
11	Harrison	303	10.4
12	Tawas	328	11.8
13	Beaverton	358	13.0
14	Charlton Heston Academy	408	14.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brad White	Clare	1.9
2	11	Leo Swager	Traverse City St. Francis	2.2
3	12	Gavin Guggemos	Kalkaska	3.8
4	11	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	4.6
5	12	Tucker Krumm	Traverse City St. Francis	6.4
6	9	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	7.3
7	12	Andrew Klaus	Clare	8.9
8	11	Owen Read	Traverse City St. Francis	10.0
9	11	Robby Myler	Traverse City St. Francis	10.3
10	10	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	10.6
11	11	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	10.8
12	11	Tristan Demlow	Grayling	12.5
13	12	Drew Moore	Grayling	12.6
14	11	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	13.1
15	12	Nic Porter	Clare	13.4
16	12	Adam Williams	Kalkaska	17.0
17	9	Connor Schmidt	Clare	18.0
18	10	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	18.1
19	11	Max Ward	Elk Rapids	18.4
20	12	Camden Moore	Kalkaska	18.7
21	11	David Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	19.5
22	9	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	20.8
23	10	Jacob Veurink	Charlevoix	24.4
24	12	Christian Kerfoot	Elk Rapids	24.6
25	12	Jaymes Wildfong	Mancelona	25.2
26	9	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	26.2
27	10	Coltrane Paryani	Kalkaska	27.9
28	9	Maxwell Drenth	Charlevoix	28.6
29	11	Caidan Gaskill	Clare	29.5
30	12	Seth Brown	Elk Rapids	32.2

Uncategorized

2023 Regional Projections – Chippewa Hills Regional

October 26, 2023October 26, 2023 mixcspeedratings

Apologies to the folks here, I was under the impression that ALL of the regions were moved to Saturday. Turns out, it’s just Region 30. So you only get one day of hoping to prove these right or wrong.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

Clarkston Everest Collegiate is listed in here, but is actually in Region 33. When the regionals were first released, they were included here on the MHSAA site. For efficiency, I set everything up in the summer with divisions and regions, that way I don’t have another added task in season. It was pointed out to me this morning that they moved… I had no clue. Obviously the hosts and the teams know, but man, it’d be nice if communication was a bit better.

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#10 Breckenridge
#18 Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

16^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Breckenridge	37	1.0	95+	95+
2	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	78	2.0		95+
3	Beal City	105	3.4		61
4	Vestaburg	113	3.9		32
5	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	130	5.3		7
6	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	132	5.5
7	St. Charles	154	6.9
8	White Cloud	209	8.3
9	Fulton	214	8.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Abigail Davis	Vestaburg	1.9
2	10	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	2.3
3	9	Anna Sheppard	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	2.8
4	9	Nolee Leppert	Beal City	4.3
5	12	Jacqueline Morton	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	4.7
6	11	Danica Aldrich	Breckenridge	6.2
7	9	Claire Long	Saginaw Nouvel	8.2
8	12	Andrea Feldpausch	White Cloud	9.4
9	11	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	9.6
10	11	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	11.0
11	11	Nataly Vine	Breckenridge	11.8
12	12	Amelia Thompson	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	12.3
13	9	Da’sia Denwiddie	Breckenridge	13.1
14	11	Brianna Locke	Beal City	13.4
15	12	Tori Most	Breckenridge	16.5
16	9	Kaylie McCracken	Carson City-Crystal	17.4
17	10	Kaya Rose	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	17.6
18	9	Kaydense Ryan	Fulton	18.5
19	11	Mickiah Allbee	Vestaburg	19.9
20	11	Lilly Leppert	Beal City	20.9
21	11	Areyel Weiss	Breckenridge	21.2
22	11	Jessica Penrod	Vestaburg	21.8
23	10	Laura Bigard	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	23.1
24	9	Greta Schroeder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	23.4
25	12	Eve Herrgott	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	25.6
26	12	Amelia Rivera	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	26.3
27	12	Mary Beth Hyatt	Carson City-Crystal	26.4
28	11	Alexis Graham	St. Charles	27.7
29	11	Maria Saad	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	29.7
30	10	Emma McCarty	Carson City-Crystal	31.9

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#12 White Cloud
#15 Breckenridge
#24 Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

16^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	White Cloud	52	1.3	71	95+
2	Breckenridge	55	1.7	29	95+
3	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	71	3.0		95+
4	Carson City-Crystal	90	4.0
5	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	142	5.2
6	Saginaw Nouvel	149	5.8
7	Montabella	172	7.2
8	St. Charles	180	7.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Owen Patton	Vestaburg	1.0
2	12	Sawyer Stoneman	Breckenridge	2.0
3	9	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge	3.8
4	11	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	3.9
5	10	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	5.4
6	9	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	7.2
7	11	Rodney Iamurri	Saginaw Nouvel	7.3
8	12	Carson Foondle	White Cloud	7.5
9	12	Carter Follett	Merrill	9.4
10	10	Kristian Coon	Carson City-Crystal	10.4
11	11	Kaleb Canning	White Cloud	11.8
12	11	Camden Fager	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	12.2
13	12	Jeffery Harden	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	14.0
14	12	Isaac Humm	Breckenridge	15.2
15	9	Amos Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	15.7
16	9	Rush Marsden	Fulton	16.1
17	11	Logan Dudley	Coleman	18.0
18	9	Simeon Kober	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	18.1
19	9	Connor Sienkiewicz	Beal City	20.6
20	12	Keegan Shafer	Vestaburg	20.6
21	12	Cole Halfman	Carson City-Crystal	21.7
22	11	Avery Bowman	White Cloud	22.6
23	11	Sean O’Grady	Saginaw Nouvel	22.6
24	10	Jordan Weber	Beal City	22.6
25	11	Wyatt Karnes	White Cloud	23.4
26	12	David Ullmann	Breckenridge	26.6
27	11	Aimon Humm	Breckenridge	27.2
28	9	Angelo Hinson	White Cloud	28.9
29	10	Summer Yuan	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	30.7
30	10	Conner Fenton	Beal City	30.9

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#9 Hart
#12 Remus Chippewa Hills
#21 McBain
#26 Benzie Central

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th place. Tons of quality individuals interspersed with these great teams.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Hart	53	1.0	95+	95+
2	Remus Chippewa Hills	65	2.0		95+
3	McBain	97	3.2		82
4	Benzie Central	117	4.2		12
5	Manistee	129	4.7		6
6	Reed City	181	6.9
7	Manton	192	7.5
8	Mason County Central	202	8.3
9	Lake City	207	8.3
10	Kingsley	219	9.2
11	Lakeview	272	11.0
12	Leroy Pine River	372	12.3
13	Hesperia	384	12.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jessica Jazwinski	Hart	1.0
2	12	Mylie Kelly	Benzie Central	2.5
3	12	Miranda McNeil	Morley-Stanwood	2.6
4	9	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	4.2
5	12	Cecilia Postma	Manistee	5.9
6	12	Avelina Hollandsworth	Remus Chippewa Hills	6.1
7	10	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	7.5
8	11	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	8.1
9	11	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	8.4
10	9	Natalie Rosema	Hart	12.1
11	9	Betsy Gooden	Manton	12.8
12	10	Kerttu Juvonen	Remus Chippewa Hills	13.1
13	9	Kayden Hinton	McBain	13.1
14	9	Maylan Sanders	Mason County Central	13.4
15	11	Chelsi Eisenga	McBain	16.4
16	11	Lauren Pretty	Hart	17.5
17	12	Haley Miller	McBain	18.3
18	11	Lilly Hopkins	Hart	20.3
19	11	Augusta Bowman	Remus Chippewa Hills	20.9
20	12	Reece Clark	Remus Chippewa Hills	22.9
21	10	Kenai Kokx	Hart	23.9
22	10	Georgia Haag	Manistee	25.4
23	11	Ava Iverson	Benzie Central	27.5
24	11	Clara Smoes	Reed City	27.6
25	11	Shauna McLean	McBain	27.8
26	11	Megan Gottschall	Lake City	28.2
27	9	Madelyn Reinink	McBain	28.6
28	9	Betsey Gooden	Manton	30.0
29	11	Harriet Kidder	Hart	30.1
30	11	Sayla Bender	Kingsley	31.2

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#5 Reed City
#12 Hart
#27 Benzie Central

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

The race for the third spot shall be a blast, with so many factors, get yourself in the top-15 and fight like hell if you’re not.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Reed City	42	1.3	70	95+
2	Hart	48	1.7	30	95+
3	Benzie Central	121	3.7		57
4	Leroy Pine River	131	4.5		27
5	Lake City	133	4.5		8
6	Manistee	143	5.3		8
7	Kingsley	203	7.1
8	Hesperia	220	8.4
9	Remus Chippewa Hills	229	9.0
10	Manton	235	9.5
11	Lakeview	288	11.0
12	Mason County Central	336	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Robert Jazwinski III	Hart	1.0
2	11	August Rohde	Reed City	2.4
3	12	Anthony Kiaunis	Reed City	2.9
4	12	Ryan Allen	Reed City	3.9
5	10	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	4.9
6	10	Jack Slotman	Hart	7.7
7	11	Max Stitt	Hart	8.8
8	12	Tyler Vanderzanden	Hart	10.3
9	10	Caiden Helsel	Lake City	10.6
10	12	Jack O’Donnell	Manistee	11.7
11	12	Paxton Hall	Lake City	12.5
12	12	Isaac Clementshaw	Reed City	12.9
13	12	Branden Stock	Kingsley	16.9
14	10	Connor Helsel	Lake City	17.4
15	9	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	17.6
16	12	Lucan Louwsma	Benzie Central	18.1
17	12	Scott Slocum	Leroy Pine River	19.5
18	10	Paul Saladin	Reed City	19.9
19	12	Matthew Brownell	Remus Chippewa Hills	20.6
20	9	Cage Edingfield	Benzie Central	21.0
21	11	Christian Schramski	Manistee	21.9
22	11	Avery Guikema	Hart	23.2
23	11	Andrew Sherburn	Hesperia	24.3
24	11	Benjamin DeRidder	Benzie Central	24.6
25	9	Aiden Schaner	Hart	24.7
26	11	Jacob Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	25.1
27	12	Luke Senters	Manistee	25.5
28	12	Gavin Kelso	Leroy Pine River	27.1
29	11	McKai Henry	Benzie Central	28.5
30	9	Aubin Allee	Leroy Pine River	29.0

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#12 Ludington
#20 Petoskey

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th place, right on the number.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Ludington	55	1.1	95+	95+
2	Petoskey	72	2.0	5	95+
3	Cadillac	104	3.0		95+
4	Gaylord	159	4.6
5	Sparta	159	4.6
6	Whitehall	196	6.8
7	Fremont	203	7.4
8	Gladwin	221	8.8
9	Cheboygan	222	8.7
10	Newaygo	230	9.4
11	Big Rapids	242	10.4
12	Howard City-Tri County	263	11.6
13	Muskegon Oakridge	302	13.0
14	Muskegon Orchard View	438	14.1
15	Ogemaw Heights	449	14.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	1.1
2	11	Summer Brower	Ludington	2.2
3	12	Nora O’Leary	Petoskey	4.5
4	10	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	4.9
5	10	Linnea Paige	Fremont	5.3
6	9	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	6.8
7	12	CamBrie Corey	Petoskey	7.8
8	11	Cami Kraai	Whitehall	7.9
9	10	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	8.4
10	9	Mia May	Sparta	9.2
11	12	Remington Arney	Newaygo	11.1
12	11	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	13.3
13	10	Christina Theis	Ludington	14.9
14	11	Abby Robinson	Gladwin	15.4
15	12	Merceydez Patton	Muskegon Oakridge	16.7
16	11	Fiona Scott	Petoskey	18.0
17	9	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	18.7
18	11	Autumn Brower	Ludington	19.0
19	12	Kennedi Wood	Sparta	19.1
20	11	Adalyn Britton	Whitehall	20.5
21	12	Mackenzie Keillor	Ludington	20.9
22	12	Marisa Mazza	Cadillac	21.8
23	11	Lillian Binger	Gladwin	23.4
24	12	Raegan Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	25.8
25	9	Allison Brandt	Ludington	29.6
26	12	Natalie Schulz	Howard City-Tri County	29.6
27	11	Ella Spanding	Gaylord	30.5
28	12	Gwendalynn Rickard	Big Rapids	31.2
29	12	Hadley Hilt	Cadillac	31.2
30	9	Addie Main	Cadillac	33.0

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#10 Petoskey
#12 Gladwin
#14 Sparta
#18 Fremont

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Could vary greatly depending if the third team is Sparta, Fremont, or even Gladwin. 15^th will be safe, but keep fighting if you’re closer to 20, as I can see this going to 18.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Petoskey	63	1.1	89	95+
2	Gladwin	79	2.4	8	94
3	Sparta	84	2.8		85
4	Fremont	100	3.7		21
5	Big Rapids	140	5.6
6	Ludington	143	5.7
7	Cadillac	165	6.9
8	Whitehall	188	8.0
9	Howard City-Tri County	213	8.9
10	Muskegon Oakridge	303	10.0
11	Cheboygan	341	11.1
12	Ogemaw Heights	369	12.3
13	Gaylord	375	12.8
14	Newaygo	392	13.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Sean Pettis	Fremont	1.2
2	10	Owen Metzger	Sparta	3.2
3	12	Gregory Janesak	Sparta	3.3
4	12	Caleb Palmreuter	Gladwin	4.3
5	11	Seth Mead	Gladwin	5.2
6	12	Shane Izzard	Petoskey	6.2
7	11	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	7.7
8	12	Nolan Nixon	Cadillac	7.7
9	11	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	7.8
10	11	Carter Sherman	Fremont	10.3
11	12	Tommy Farley	Petoskey	11.3
12	12	Jack Lindwall	Petoskey	13.3
13	11	Hayden Gould	Big Rapids	13.8
14	11	Justin Bradford	Sparta	16.0
15	11	Peyton Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	16.3
16	12	Brady Odenbach	Petoskey	17.6
17	10	Zahar Rush	Petoskey	19.5
18	12	Jose Flores	Ludington	20.6
19	12	Dylan Odenbach	Petoskey	21.1
20	10	Issac Romero	Fremont	21.4
21	11	Noah Lowman	Ludington	22.4
22	10	Daniel Eveland	Big Rapids	22.9
23	12	Gavin Rykse	Howard City-Tri County	23.5
24	10	Hunter Parsons	Whitehall	23.7
25	12	Trey Keson	Ludington	27.0
26	12	John Whitman	Gladwin	27.4
27	11	Isaac Meyers	Sparta	27.5
28	11	Austin Dalman	Big Rapids	27.7
29	10	Alex Culver	Howard City-Tri County	29.0
30	11	Kyan Deam	Big Rapids	29.9

Uncategorized

2023 Regional Projections: Allendale Regional

October 26, 2023October 26, 2023 mixcspeedratings

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#3 Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
#6 Gobles
#7 Saugatuck
#24 St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

If I’m counting this right… 27^th! Wow, that’s far back, but with three top-10 teams, I guess that’s what to expect.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	33	1.1	90	95+
2	Gobles	48	2.0	9	95+
3	Saugatuck	58	3.0		95+
4	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	100	4.1
5	Holland Calvary Christian	117	4.9
6	Vermontville Maple Valley	171	6.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Grace VanderKooi	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	1.0
2	9	Libby Smith	Gobles	2.0
3	9	Veyda Conley	Martin	5.4
4	9	Ava DeYoung	Gobles	5.4
5	12	Allison Glendening	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	6.0
6	9	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	7.6
7	9	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	7.6
8	9	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles	7.8
9	12	Eleanor Kingshott	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	8.1
10	9	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	9.1
11	12	Grace Folkema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	9.4
12	9	Kaylie Riksen	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	11.3
13	10	Madison Cooley	Gobles	14.1
14	12	Anna McQueary	Saugatuck	15.2
15	11	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-Unity Christian	15.3
16	11	Leilani Schoonmaker	Saugatuck	15.8
17	11	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	16.1
18	11	Alayah Nieuwsma	Saugatuck	18.1
19	12	Abby Kunkle	Libertas Christian	18.4
20	10	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	19.2
21	12	Leah Prins	Byron Center Zion Christian	23.1
22	11	Mary Riley	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	25.0
23	11	Hallie Lindale	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	26.2
24	10	Aribel Mills	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	26.4
25	11	Hannah Hysell	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	26.9
26	12	Deanna Wood	Gobles	27.0
27	12	Madilyn DeRuiter	Byron Center Zion Christian	28.1
28	9	Lilly Faurot	Vermontville Maple Valley	28.1
29	8	Laura Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	28.8
30	11	Olivia Laninga	Holland Calvary Christian	29.0

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#3 Saugatuck
#4 Holland Calvary Christian
#7 Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
#18 Tri-Unity Christian
#21 Muskegon Catholic Central

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

20^th Place. Once again, three top-10 teams, but this time a bit more depth behind those three dominant boys teams.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Saugatuck	49	1.3	69	95+
2	Holland Calvary Christian	55	2.0	28	95+
3	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	62	2.7		95+
4	Tri-Unity Christian	105	4.1
5	Muskegon Catholic Central	121	4.9
6	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	149	6.0
7	Byron Center Zion Christian	188	7.0
8	Libertas Christian	200	8.0
9	Gobles	241	9.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	1.4
2	11	Tyler Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	2.7
3	10	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	4.4
4	9	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	4.6
5	9	Riley Weed	Holland Calvary Christian	5.4
6	12	Graeson Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	6.1
7	8	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	7.9
8	12	Myles Tilma	Byron Center Zion Christian	8.1
9	9	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	8.3
10	9	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian	8.7
11	9	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	11.3
12	10	Brennan Nor	Saugatuck	12.6
13	12	Jacob Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	12.9
14	9	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	13.8
15	9	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	16.7
16	10	Reuben Anderson	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	16.8
17	9	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	17.5
18	12	Owen Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	18.0
19	11	Caleb Oudbier	Tri-Unity Christian	22.0
20	12	Matthew Lage	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	22.2
21	11	Alexander Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	22.4
22	12	Alexander Gordillo	Libertas Christian	23.5
23	12	Danny Maat	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	23.9
24	9	Elijah Laninga	Holland Calvary Christian	24.0
25	9	Caleb Adkins	Holland Calvary Christian	24.3
26	9	Eli Laninga	Holland Calvary Christian	24.9
27	10	Ryer Campbell	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	25.5
28	12	Jack Walkenhorst	Muskegon Catholic Central	26.2
29	11	Kalen Loebach	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	26.9
30	12	Owen McLoughlin	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	29.8

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#3 Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
#16 Kent City
#17 Fennville
#25 Grandville Calvin Christian

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

17^th Place. After Covenant’s pack and the elite KC/Fennville girls, there’ll be a few spots for the taking.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	43	1.0	95+	95+
2	Kent City	86	2.2		95+
3	Fennville	96	2.8		95+
4	Grandville Calvin Christian	118	4.0
5	The Potter’s House	143	5.1
6	Montague	174	7.1
7	Shelby	174	7.1
8	Saranac	177	7.4
9	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	189	8.4
10	Delton-Kellogg	222	9.9
11	Holland Black River	267	11.0
12	Ravenna	360	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lila Volkers	Kent City	1.0
2	12	Amber Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	2.1
3	9	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	3.6
4	12	Isabella Max	Kent City	4.6
5	9	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	5.4
6	11	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	6.1
7	12	Gracie Houtman	Kent City	6.7
8	9	Lydia Soelberg	Shelby	9.6
9	12	Abbie Wiegers	North Muskegon	9.8
10	12	Nidia Martinez	Fennville	10.2
11	9	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	12.0
12	12	Lindsay Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	12.3
13	9	Anna DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	13.4
14	11	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	13.4
15	9	Marnath Tuol	Grandville Calvin Christian	13.9
16	12	Cammie Erickson	Montague	15.4
17	12	Lauren Jousma	Grandville Calvin Christian	17.5
18	9	Jenna Terpstra	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	18.6
19	11	Alyssa Possehn	Saranac	19.3
20	10	Sylvia Skujins	North Muskegon	19.6
21	10	Samantha Giles	Fennville	21.7
22	12	Nora Ballard	Holland Black River	23.8
23	12	Ivy Andreas	The Potter’s House	24.2
24	11	Grace Torsch	Montague	26.9
25	12	Erika Bylsma	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	27.2
26	10	Amber Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	27.8
27	9	Noel Parker	Shelby	28.5
28	12	Summer Ritchie	Delton-Kellogg	29.6
29	11	Christina Mendoza	Fennville	29.9
30	10	Melanie Thornton	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	30.5

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#3 Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
#7 The Potter’s House
#24 Holland Black River

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th, baby!

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	50	1.0	95+	95+
2	The Potter’s House	71	2.0		95+
3	Holland Black River	124	3.4		71
4	Kent City	135	4.1		23
5	Saranac	149	5.1
6	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	156	5.8
7	Montague	166	6.8
8	Shelby	183	7.8
9	North Muskegon	212	9.0
10	Grandville Calvin Christian	275	10.6
11	Delton-Kellogg	292	11.5
12	Ravenna	296	11.6
13	Fennville	312	12.3

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Samuel Martini	Kent City	1.5
2	12	Jackson Rodriguez	The Potter’s House	2.2
3	11	Levi Kamps	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	3.5
4	9	Graeson Decker	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	5.2
5	11	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	6.0
6	12	Brodie Delamater	Grant	6.0
7	12	Nathan Day	Saranac	6.6
8	12	Trevor Dornbos	Grandville Calvin Christian	8.8
9	9	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	10.2
10	11	Luke Dykstra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	10.5
11	12	Ezra Hagedorn	The Potter’s House	11.1
12	12	Hunter Helminski	Saranac	11.8
13	10	Noah Raeth	Montague	13.2
14	12	Jaren Vogel	Kent City	15.6
15	12	Noah Finton	The Potter’s House	16.5
16	12	Grant Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	16.6
17	12	Tanner Soelberg	Shelby	18.0
18	11	Tyler N. Kooienga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	19.2
19	10	Luke Tibbe	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	19.4
20	12	Evan Atkinson-Miller	North Muskegon	20.4
21	10	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	21.5
22	9	Caleb Swiney	The Potter’s House	23.3
23	12	Caleb Drnek	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.5
24	11	Ethan Rimmer	Delton-Kellogg	24.5
25	10	Iziquiel Picon	Shelby	25.4
26	12	Clay Johnson	Montague	26.8
27	11	Alix Draves	Montague	27.7
28	12	Connor Lubbers	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	28.9
29	10	Isaac Norcross	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	30.5
30	12	Micah Frye	Shelby	32.2

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#1 Grand Rapids Christian
#5 Zeeland East
#6 Spring Lake
#8 Holland Christian
#14 Hudsonville Unity Christian

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

16^th to 17^th Place. An insanely strong GR Christian squad takes up much of the top seven spots, but there’s plenty of individuals who’ll come in after.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Rapids Christian	26	1.0	95+	95+
2	Zeeland East	79	2.1		95+
3	Spring Lake	99	3.4		56
4	Holland Christian	101	3.5		46
5	Hudsonville Unity Christian	126	5.0
6	Fruitport	172	6.0
7	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	201	7.0
8	Allendale	252	8.9
9	Holland	256	9.3
10	Coopersville	256	9.3
11	Grand Rapids West Catholic	271	10.5
12	Hamilton	323	12.0
13	Grand River Preparatory	403	13.2
14	Wyoming Lee	415	13.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Natalie VanOtteren	Grand Rapids Christian	1.1
2	11	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	3.2
3	12	Emily Tomes	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	3.6
4	10	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	3.8
5	10	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	5.3
6	12	Payton Holtz	Grand Rapids Christian	7.3
7	12	Naomi Nelson	Grand Rapids Christian	8.4
8	12	Allison Kuzma	Zeeland East	8.9
9	9	Olivia Hollebeek	Holland Christian	9.0
10	12	Tatum Dykstra	Fruitport	11.3
11	12	Kyla Meyers	Spring Lake	11.7
12	9	Johanna Mulder	Holland	12.4
13	9	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	12.6
14	12	Bea Reeser	Spring Lake	14.5
15	12	Maddie Bosch	Hudsonville Unity Christian	14.6
16	9	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	15.9
17	12	Claire Marosi	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	17.8
18	12	Adia Sikkema	Grand Rapids Christian	18.7
19	10	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	18.7
20	10	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	18.9
21	10	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian	19.9
22	9	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	25.0
23	11	Sierra Grooters	Hudsonville Unity Christian	25.2
24	11	Lexie Ruffing	Spring Lake	25.3
25	10	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	26.3
26	10	CC Kuras	Zeeland East	28.2
27	9	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	28.7
28	11	Maddie Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	28.7
29	10	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	28.8
30	12	Lauren Lee	Fruitport	29.5

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#2 Allendale
#3 Grand Rapids Christian
#11 Holland Christian
#15 Spring Lake
#20 Hamilton

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st place on either Holland Christian or Spring Lake qualifying scenarios.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Allendale	45	1.4	59	95+
2	Grand Rapids Christian	47	1.6	41	95+
3	Holland Christian	106	3.3		69
4	Spring Lake	116	3.8		31
5	Hamilton	145	5.1
6	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	165	5.9
7	Zeeland East	211	7.5
8	Fruitport	216	8.0
9	Holland	227	8.6
10	Hudsonville Unity Christian	260	9.9
11	Comstock Park	325	11.2
12	Coopersville	337	11.8
13	Grand River Preparatory	384	13.4
14	Grand Rapids West Catholic	389	13.6

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Noah Lambers	Holland	1.8
2	11	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	2.6
3	10	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	3.3
4	11	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	3.9
5	11	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	5.1
6	11	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	8.5
7	11	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	8.9
8	11	Jeb Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	9.8
9	11	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	10.7
10	12	Luke Glasgow	Spring Lake	10.7
11	11	Ben Gross	Allendale	10.8
12	10	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian	11.3
13	12	Dylan Clark	Grand Rapids Christian	12.3
14	12	Jonathan Koetje	Grand Rapids Christian	15.6
15	12	Ian Richthammer	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	16.1
16	12	Peter Kuperus	Grand Rapids Christian	17.0
17	10	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian	18.7
18	11	Will Whitmore	Holland Christian	19.0
19	11	Parker Woodwyk	Spring Lake	19.0
20	9	Mason Hill	Allendale	19.1
21	11	Caden Guffey	Zeeland East	20.2
22	10	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	22.9
23	11	Aidan Brinks	Holland Christian	23.7
24	11	Aiden Kasprzak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	24.4
25	11	Andrew Commeret	Comstock Park	24.7
26	10	Lukus Mendoza	Spring Lake	25.4
27	11	Vincent Pollock	Fruitport	26.7
28	10	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian	29.7
29	11	Brayden Rynsburger	Holland Christian	30.5
30	11	Noah Hernandez	Hamilton	30.9

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#4 Holland West Ottawa
#5 Grand Haven
#12 Rockford
#21 Jenison
#27 Zeeland West

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

I have the top-3 teams occupying 70% of the top-20 spots, sending the last individual qualifier back as far as 22^nd.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Holland West Ottawa	41	1.1	86	95+
2	Grand Haven	55	1.9	14	95+
3	Rockford	79	3.0		95+
4	Jenison	121	4.3
5	Zeeland West	138	5.3
6	Hudsonville	142	5.6
7	Grandville	192	7.1
8	Cedar Springs	220	8.2
9	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	237	8.8
10	Muskegon Mona Shores	267	9.8
11	Grand Rapids Northview	325	11.0
12	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	364	12.0
13	Grand Rapids Union	402	13.0
14	Wyoming	458	14.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	1.8
2	11	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	2.1
3	10	Addie Birkholz	Holland West Ottawa	3.1
4	11	Chloe DeRidder	Grandville	4.5
5	11	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	7.8
6	10	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	8.5
7	11	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	8.7
8	11	Addy Smith	Grand Haven	9.1
9	9	Daisy Cox	Rockford	9.8
10	9	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	11.5
11	10	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	13.4
12	11	Emma Smith	Rockford	13.4
13	12	Maddie Vande Bunte	Jenison	14.0
14	11	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	14.3
15	11	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	15.0
16	11	Naomi Diekman	Jenison	15.5
17	10	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	15.6
18	11	Natalie Lewis	Rockford	17.9
19	9	Lyla Dowling	Holland West Ottawa	21.9
20	11	Gracey Barry	Grand Haven	23.1
21	11	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	23.2
22	12	Tessa Rindfliesch	Zeeland West	24.5
23	11	Julia Frampton	Holland West Ottawa	25.1
24	12	Payton Hosley	Grand Haven	26.7
25	10	Macy Guikema	Jenison	27.8
26	9	Paige McMeans	Jenison	28.2
27	11	Melana Karsten	Rockford	28.5
28	12	Reiel Ghiglia	Hudsonville	28.8
29	11	Klea Verstrate	Hudsonville	29.1
30	12	Laurel Tolliver	Grand Haven	30.3

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#3 Grand Haven
#11 Jenison
#22 Zeeland West
#23 East Kentwood

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

18^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Haven	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Jenison	66	2.1		95+
3	Zeeland West	89	2.9		95+
4	Rockford	132	4.4
5	Holland West Ottawa	138	4.7
6	Grandville	172	6.6
7	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	173	6.7
8	Cedar Springs	194	8.1
9	Hudsonville	203	8.5
10	Grand Rapids Northview	308	10.1
11	Muskegon Mona Shores	323	11.0
12	Grand Rapids Union	351	12.0
13	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	397	13.0
14	Wyoming	431	14.0
15	Muskegon	483	15.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Seth Norder	Grand Haven	1.1
2	11	Seth Conner	Jenison	1.9
3	11	Mason Lucas	Jenison	3.5
4	11	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	5.5
5	12	Jaxon Allen	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	6.6
6	9	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	6.8
7	11	Carter Livermore	Grandville	6.8
8	12	Roman Smith	Grand Haven	9.0
9	10	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	10.4
10	10	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	10.9
11	12	Jack DeKruyter	Zeeland West	11.4
12	10	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	14.0
13	9	Caden Livermore	Grandville	15.6
14	11	Kye Grant	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	16.6
15	10	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	17.0
16	12	Max Vangrouw	Holland West Ottawa	17.1
17	11	Matthew Schwartz	Jenison	17.4
18	11	Noah Schuette	Rockford	17.7
19	11	Parker Strelecki	Jenison	19.8
20	12	Carson Hauch	Zeeland West	20.1
21	10	Aiden Weller	Cedar Springs	23.7
22	11	Dominic Otto	Jenison	23.8
23	10	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	23.8
24	12	Gavin Betten	Rockford	24.2
25	11	Carson Berko	Grand Haven	24.3
26	11	Levi Jongekryg	Holland West Ottawa	26.2
27	12	Tate Bradley	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	26.2
28	12	Nate Fahey	Rockford	26.5
29	10	Hayden Lafferty	Rockford	28.2
30	10	Jake Follett	Holland West Ottawa	29.6

Category: Uncategorized

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