2022 Division 4 State Finals Preview

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. I’ll end with a quote from Jason Kerr, “It is not about going out there and trying to prove people wrong. It is about going out there and proving your own belief in yourself and team right. You want it to be difficult, and you want it to mean something. You work too hard for anything less.”

May the cadence be quick and the times blazing. Have fun out there Saturday.

BOYS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	The Potter’s House	36	95+	95+	95+
2	Johannesburg-Lewiston	134		70	95+
3	Petoskey St. Michael	147		29	95+
4	Harbor Springs	219			95+
5	Three Oaks River Valley	237			95+
6	Hillsdale Academy	238			95+
7	Adrian Lenawee Christian	272			95+
8	Mason County Eastern	276			95+
9	Whitmore Lake	287			88
10	Frankfort	320			63
11	Holland Calvary Christian	323			49
12	Concord	363			7
13	Kalamazoo Hackett	411
14	Pentwater	416
15	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	421
16	Brown City	429
17	Ubly	438
18	Battle Creek St. Philip	449
19	Petersburg-Summerfield	451
20	Breckenridge	469
21	Royal Oak Shrine	469
22	Mayville	477
23	Lutheran Westland	493
24	Novi Christian Academy	494
25	Webberville	504
26	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	590
27	Beal City	654

The Potter’s House is about as big a favorite you’ll find. You could take away two of Lezawe Osterink, Logan Swiney, and Jackson Rodriguez, and they’d still be the favorites. Their potential was known over the summer, adding Rodriguez off a stellar track season, bringing back Ian Palacios from a year away. Their prowess was evident early, dominating a field of D1/D2 teams at Under the Lights. More recently, the Pumas defeated a D4 top-10 heavy field at Portage, placing 4 in the top-10, swiftly improving Ezra Hagedorn close behind.

Johannesburg-Lewiston and Petoskey St. Michael are probably the best candidates of capturing the other podium spot. The two squads have faced off three times recently. The Guardians picked up victories at Bluejay and Portage, the Cardinals grabbed the regional title. That Region 29 race had Johannesburg at full strength, which may be the best indicator of their current condition. A point in favor of St. Michael is their reliability, especially in their 3^rd-5^th runners, who often race to a narrow range of ratings. Johannesburg has a bit more variability, but is trending towards quicker times (Ben Lauber with a 17:46 after running in the 19’s for much of the year, Jeremiah Witt improving as well).

Team	1st Boy	2nd Boy	3rd Boy	4th Boy	5th Boy	6th Boy	7th Boy
The Potter’s House	1	2	4	11	18	26	43
Johannesburg-Lewiston	5	13	20	37	60	88	145
Petoskey St. Michael	8	12	21	46	60	68	175

You may notice that the 5th boys for both Johannesburg-Lewiston and St. Michael are both listed at 60. Given the simulations, these are average places for whomever shows up as their 5th runner, not a set in stone placing.

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
The Potter’s House	1	3	7	17	36
Johannesburg-Lewiston	5	18	38	75	134
Petoskey St. Michael	8	20	41	87	147

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lezawe Osterink	The Potter’s House	1.01
2	11	Jackson Rodriguez	The Potter’s House	3.16
3	12	Logan Swiney	The Potter’s House	3.60
4	12	Dakota Dykhuis	Montabella	5.67
5	12	Jacob Wartenberg	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.13
6	12	Cal Benjamin	Harbor Springs	6.76
7	12	Tyler Bays	Reading	7.41
8	12	Christopher Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	7.79
9	11	Owen Patton	Vestaburg	9.17
10	11	Tyler Lenn	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	9.57
11	12	Macartan Moore	Petoskey St. Michael	11.91
12	11	Thomas Holm	Hillsdale Academy	14.77
13	12	Nathan Wing	Mason County Eastern	16.00
14	12	Adair Artis	Concord	17.39
15	12	Zachary Maendel	Petoskey St. Michael	17.50
16	11	Ian Palacios	The Potter’s House	18.14
17	12	Skylar Werden	Frankfort	19.84
18	11	Blake Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	20.53
19	10	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	22.33
20	12	Logan Cooper	Potterville	24.63
21	11	Noah Finton	The Potter’s House	24.91
22	12	Ethan Green	Kingston	24.96
23	11	Aiden Fitchett	Dryden	25.72
24	12	Evan Suydam	Petersburg-Summerfield	27.50
25	8	Riley Weed	Holland Calvary Christian	28.31
26	11	Michael Allen	East Jackson	28.58
27	9	Lynus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	30.17
28	12	Braylan Majesky	Whitmore Lake	31.28
29	11	Utah Gusa	Ubly	31.47
30	11	Sawyer Stoneman	Breckenridge	32.02
31	12	Ronin Vaden	Johannesburg-Lewiston	32.55
32	9	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	33.44
33	10	Tyler Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	33.84
34	11	Luke Sprague	St Philip Catholic Central	36.18
35	12	Alex Meszaros	Riverview Gabriel Richard	37.01
36	11	Ezra Hagedorn	The Potter’s House	39.00
37	11	Charlie DeVries	Byron Center Zion Christian	43.98
38	10	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	44.03
39	12	Owen Gross	Beal City	48.48
40	9	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	49.14
41	12	Merrick Michaelson	West Bloomfield Frankel Jewish Academy	49.29
42	9	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	49.47
43	9	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	50.33
44	9	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	50.62
45	11	Alex Wanty	Hale	50.97
46	11	Adam Townsend	Frankfort	53.89
47	12	John Schoen	Capac	54.51
48	10	Adam Slavens	Three Oaks River Valley	54.66
49	12	Kade Spahr	Pittsford	56.61
50	10	Diego BoCole	Jackson Preparatory	56.97
51	12	Caleb Howard	Webberville	57.17
52	11	Abe VanDuinen	Pentwater	58.83
53	11	Malaki Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	59.15
54	12	Brandon Thompson	Petersburg-Summerfield	60.33
55	9	Pierson Cousino	Adrian Lenawee Christian	63.75
56	10	Reece Poole	Hillsdale Academy	64.07
57	9	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	65.37
58	11	TJ Donnan	Southfield Christian	66.04
59	12	Jackson Kulawiak	Buckley	66.13
60	10	Rodney Iamurri	Saginaw Nouvel	66.57
61	11	Logan Kihnke	Harbor Springs	67.15
62	12	Chase Snell	Grand Traverse Academy	67.29
63	11	Max Shugars	St Philip Catholic Central	67.60
64	11	Javin Mericle	East Jackson	67.82
65	9	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	68.90
66	11	Kaden Forward	Bear Lake-Onekama	71.05
67	11	Trevor Clarke	Harbor Springs	71.08
68	11	Cameron Griffin	Whitmore Lake	71.09
69	9	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	71.79
70	9	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	72.32
71	11	Isaac Humm	Breckenridge	72.59
72	10	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	74.98
73	9	Cole Bates	Concord	75.17
74	11	Nathan Daniels	Adrian Lenawee Christian	75.91
75	12	Lucas Lange	Adrian Lenawee Christian	76.59
76	12	Lars Huffman	Mackinaw City	77.55
77	11	Gavin Sehy	Kalamazoo Hackett	79.76
78	11	Connor Rouse	Genesee	80.39
79	12	Bryson Bachelder	Morenci	82.60
80	11	Owen McLoughlin	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	82.74
81	9	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	84.73
82	9	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	84.80
83	12	Grant Long	Adrian Lenawee Christian	85.48
84	10	Isaac Bignall	Unionville-Sebewaing	86.70
85	12	Jacob Skidmore	Novi Christian Academy	87.36
86	10	Kaleb Brown	Pentwater	89.36
87	11	Jacob Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	90.13
88	11	Austin York	Three Oaks River Valley	91.80
89	12	Gavin Hancox	Gobles	93.47
90	12	Isaac Waldron	Concord	93.62
91	12	Caleb Diener	Hillsdale Academy	93.82
92	12	Johnny Benko	Riverview Gabriel Richard	93.89
93	11	Levi Benzing	Petoskey St. Michael	94.78
94	11	Carter Follett	Merrill	96.55
95	8	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	96.86
96	8	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	97.18
97	11	Peter Hybza	Mason County Eastern	97.30
98	12	Easton Jager	Brown City	98.40
99	9	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	99.11
100	10	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	100.08

Lezawe Osterink is clearly the class of the field. When he’s pushing the pace, as has happened a few times in 2022, at Spartan (15:20 – 218) and Portage (15:05 – 214), he’s one of the better runners to come through D4 in my memory. At Portage, probably the closest comparison to this field, he blew the rest of the field away by over a minute. He’ll be going for his second consecutive XC title.

GIRLS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Johannesburg-Lewiston	133	78	91	95+
2	Harbor Springs	158	13	47	95+
3	Whitmore Lake	160	6	43	95+
4	Hillsdale Academy	168	3	18	95+
5	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	218			95+
6	Kingston	289			95+
7	Unionville-Sebewaing	313			95+
8	Ubly	342			71
9	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	343			69
10	Grand Traverse Academy	347			52
11	Leland	366			39
12	Buckley	376			30
13	Libertas Christian	382			16
14	The Potter’s House	385			21
15	Farwell	395
16	Pittsford	407
17	Kalamazoo Hackett	412
18	Beal City	420
19	Breckenridge	423
20	Royal Oak Shrine	431
21	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	442
22	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	488
23	Mendon	493
24	Concord	539
25	Adrian Lenawee Christian	560
26	Petoskey St. Michael	560
27	Fowler	594

This is shaping up to be a very good team race. Although there’s a bit of a point gap between Johannesburg-Lewiston and Harbor Springs, Whitmore Lake, and Hillsdale Academy, there’s a decent enough chance that one of the latter three comes home with the trophy.

Both Johannesburg and Harbor Springs had a bump up the D4 rankings around mid-season. The Cardinals owed their rise to a 2nd place finish in a D2/D3-centric field at Bluejay, the Rams hung with the best D3 has to offer at Petoskey. The two schools have faced off recently, at Northern Michigan and Region 29, Harbor Springs capturing both of those by a grand total of one point (though Johannesburg was missing two of their varsity runners for Northern Michigan).

Hillsdale Academy and Whitmore Lake locked up at Holly, the Colts taking a 3 point victory, in large part through their 3rd girl coming in before the Trojans’ 2nd. That was before Natalie Meadows began to find the form that led her to an All-State finish last year. She’s been sub-21 in 4 of her past 5 races, leading Whitmore Lake to a MIAC title (perhaps, pound for pound, the best conference in the state). Hillsdale has had similar championship season success, attaining victories at both Class D and Region 34.

Team	1st Girl	2nd Girl	3rd Girl	4th Girl	5th Girl	6th Girl	7th Girl
Johannesburg-Lewiston	4	7	27	43	51	62	91
Harbor Springs	11	16	30	43	58	70	86
Whitmore Lake	3	25	36	43	52	94	116
Hillsdale Academy	13	19	29	49	59	70	83

You may notice that the 4th girls for Johannesburg-Lewiston, Whitmore Lake, and Harbor Springs all are listed in 43rd place. Given the simulations, this is an average place from anyone that’s projected to be their 4th runner. You could have a girl that’s mega consistent and projects to be between 40th-46th and another one with a range of 23rd-63rd. Both may emit the same average, but get there through wildly different scenarios.

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Johannesburg Lewiston	4	12	39	82	133
Harbor Springs	11	27	57	101	158
Whitmore Lake	3	29	65	107	160
Hillsdale Academy	13	31	60	109	168

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Aiden Harrand	Buckley	1.14
2	10	Presley Allen	Mendon	2.49
3	9	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	3.97
4	11	Ava Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	4.24
5	10	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.06
6	10	Izzy Brooks	Adrian Lenawee Christian	7.58
7	10	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	7.89
8	12	Erika Van Loton	Huron Valley Lutheran	8.28
9	9	Yolanda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	8.59
10	12	Petra Foote	Grand Traverse Academy	13.78
11	12	Grace Thorpe	Harbor Springs	14.16
12	11	Allison Glendening	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	14.39
13	11	Miriam Murrell	Gaylord St. Mary	15.01
14	10	Ella Knudsen	Leland	15.59
15	12	Megan Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	15.90
16	10	Ava Mallar	Pittsford	16.60
17	10	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	17.60
18	9	Rowan Allen	Mendon	18.58
19	10	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	18.91
20	9	Sadie Schout	Libertas Christian	21.21
21	11	Isabella Yeoman	Genesee	22.20
22	9	Ruth Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	22.90
23	10	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	27.87
24	11	Ivy Andreas	The Potter’s House	29.27
25	12	Ashlyn Kephart	Lansing Christian	31.04
26	10	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	31.71
27	11	Brooke Smith	Pittsford	32.91
28	12	Madeleine Barge	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	33.17
29	11	Natalie Meadows	Whitmore Lake	33.19
30	12	Helana Napiorkowski	Austin Catholic	33.56
31	9	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	35.28
32	12	Mackenzie Lemke	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	35.50
33	12	Maze Gusa	Ubly	35.58
34	12	Kaylee Locke	Beal City	35.84
35	12	Gabriella Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	37.06
36	10	Ella Walton	Hillsdale Academy	38.06
37	10	Kyra Beemer	Brown City	39.23
38	11	Leah Zarrilli	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	39.70
39	11	Madalyn Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	40.11
40	10	Tara Shouldice	Harbor Springs	42.43
41	9	Cieara Barrett	Concord	43.38
42	12	Sophia Sanford	Deckerville	45.56
43	9	Emersyn Bachelder	Morenci	53.22
44	10	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	53.38
45	10	Reece Wruble	Harbor Beach	53.59
46	9	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	55.29
47	11	Lily Lemanski	Marlette	57.89
48	12	Anna Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	58.73
49	12	Brooke Craven	Whitmore Lake	58.79
50	9	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	59.89
51	12	Aliz Pusztai	Libertas Christian	59.93
52	9	Brooklynn Frazee	Buckley	60.05
53	12	Julia Troxel	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	60.82
54	9	Lizzie Bassett	Harbor Springs	61.18
55	10	Stephanie Hernandez	Addison	61.55
56	12	Dani VanLente	Tekonsha	62.34
57	9	Lauren Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	62.67
58	10	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	62.70
59	11	Abby Rice	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	63.88
60	12	Sydney Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	65.51
61	10	Riley McCumber	Pittsford	65.83
62	12	Natalie Zochowski	Johannesburg-Lewiston	65.93
63	12	Julia Jones	Grand Traverse Academy	67.81
64	10	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	67.97
65	9	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	68.05
66	11	Josie Dubuc	Novi Christian Academy	68.35
67	10	Mya Denoyer	Leland	69.35
68	9	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	69.71
69	10	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-Unity Christian	70.23
70	10	Meeghan Flikkie	Kingston	70.88
71	11	Gracy Walker	Kingston	71.29
72	9	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	72.29
73	9	Addison Chownyk	Frankfort	72.74
74	11	Alberta Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	73.00
75	12	Whitney Wilkinson	Hillsdale Academy	73.29
76	11	Rosalinda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	77.01
77	9	Madison Cooley	Gobles	77.83
78	12	Natalie Malczyk	Huron Valley Lutheran	78.11
79	10	Ava Wilson	Fruitport Calvary Christian	80.20
80	10	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	80.53
81	10	Ada Grubaugh	Frankfort	81.39
82	10	Elke Knauf	East Jordan	83.36
83	11	Cora Mullins	Johannesburg-Lewiston	84.62
84	12	Autumn Wakefield	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	85.01
85	12	Abigail Guza	Ubly	85.53
86	11	Jacqueline Morton	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	85.79
87	9	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	88.26
88	12	Cozette Brown	Portland St. Patrick	88.81
89	9	Molly Walker	Kingston	90.13
90	9	Abby Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	90.80
91	9	Shenoah Collier	Grand Traverse Academy	91.65
92	9	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	93.42
93	9	Kaya Rose	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	93.97
94	9	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	94.45
95	12	Cally Camara	Muskegon Catholic Central	98.12
96	11	Abby Kunkle	Libertas Christian	98.53
97	9	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	99.49
98	11	Lilli Stanzel	Colon	101.25
99	12	Michaela Kurth	Lutheran HS Westland	101.56
100	10	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	102.54

Aiden Harrand took her lumps behind Makenna Scott and Abby VanderKooi, now it’s time for her to shine on the cross course. She’s been undefeated this year at the D4 level, her only loss coming at Sparta against D3 competition. She’s no stranger to the big stage, placing top-5 here each of the past two years and winning titles on the track in the spring. Two efforts from her season speak to her potential dominance, the 18:41 in the heat at Sparta and the 18:33 at Shepherd.

Presley Allen has the best chance of anyone in the field of matching Aiden. Her 19:10 at Portage was only a few seconds back and she has championship experience as well, placing 6th here in 2021 and All-State in the 1600/3200m during the spring.