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2022 Division 4 State Finals Preview

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. I’ll end with a quote from Jason Kerr, “It is not about going out there and trying to prove people wrong. It is about going out there and proving your own belief in yourself and team right. You want it to be difficult, and you want it to mean something. You work too hard for anything less.”

May the cadence be quick and the times blazing. Have fun out there Saturday.

BOYS TEAM

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Podium %Top 10 %
1The Potter’s House3695+95+95+
2Johannesburg-Lewiston1347095+
3Petoskey St. Michael1472995+
4Harbor Springs21995+
5Three Oaks River Valley23795+
6Hillsdale Academy23895+
7Adrian Lenawee Christian27295+
8Mason County Eastern27695+
9Whitmore Lake28788
10Frankfort32063
11Holland Calvary Christian32349
12Concord3637
13Kalamazoo Hackett411
14Pentwater416
15Marine City Cardinal Mooney421
16Brown City429
17Ubly438
18Battle Creek St. Philip449
19Petersburg-Summerfield451
20Breckenridge469
21Royal Oak Shrine469
22Mayville477
23Lutheran Westland493
24Novi Christian Academy494
25Webberville504
26Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary590
27Beal City654

The Potter’s House is about as big a favorite you’ll find. You could take away two of Lezawe Osterink, Logan Swiney, and Jackson Rodriguez, and they’d still be the favorites. Their potential was known over the summer, adding Rodriguez off a stellar track season, bringing back Ian Palacios from a year away. Their prowess was evident early, dominating a field of D1/D2 teams at Under the Lights. More recently, the Pumas defeated a D4 top-10 heavy field at Portage, placing 4 in the top-10, swiftly improving Ezra Hagedorn close behind.

Johannesburg-Lewiston and Petoskey St. Michael are probably the best candidates of capturing the other podium spot. The two squads have faced off three times recently. The Guardians picked up victories at Bluejay and Portage, the Cardinals grabbed the regional title. That Region 29 race had Johannesburg at full strength, which may be the best indicator of their current condition. A point in favor of St. Michael is their reliability, especially in their 3rd-5th runners, who often race to a narrow range of ratings. Johannesburg has a bit more variability, but is trending towards quicker times (Ben Lauber with a 17:46 after running in the 19’s for much of the year, Jeremiah Witt improving as well).

Team1st Boy2nd Boy3rd Boy4th Boy5th Boy6th Boy7th Boy
The Potter’s House12411182643
Johannesburg-Lewiston51320376088145
Petoskey St. Michael81221466068175

You may notice that the 5th boys for both Johannesburg-Lewiston and St. Michael are both listed at 60. Given the simulations, these are average places for whomever shows up as their 5th runner, not a set in stone placing.

TeamThru 1Thru 2Thru 3Thru 4Thru 5
The Potter’s House1371736
Johannesburg-Lewiston5183875134
Petoskey St. Michael8204187147

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Lezawe OsterinkThe Potter’s House1.01
211Jackson RodriguezThe Potter’s House3.16
312Logan SwineyThe Potter’s House3.60
412Dakota DykhuisMontabella5.67
512Jacob WartenbergJohannesburg-Lewiston6.13
612Cal BenjaminHarbor Springs6.76
712Tyler BaysReading7.41
812Christopher RusselburgAllen Park Cabrini7.79
911Owen PattonVestaburg9.17
1011Tyler LennMarine City Cardinal Mooney9.57
1112Macartan MoorePetoskey St. Michael11.91
1211Thomas HolmHillsdale Academy14.77
1312Nathan WingMason County Eastern16.00
1412Adair ArtisConcord17.39
1512Zachary MaendelPetoskey St. Michael17.50
1611Ian PalaciosThe Potter’s House18.14
1712Skylar WerdenFrankfort19.84
1811Blake FoxJohannesburg-Lewiston20.53
1910Mason SinkeBear Lake-Onekama22.33
2012Logan CooperPotterville24.63
2111Noah FintonThe Potter’s House24.91
2212Ethan GreenKingston24.96
2311Aiden FitchettDryden25.72
2412Evan SuydamPetersburg-Summerfield27.50
258Riley WeedHolland Calvary Christian28.31
2611Michael AllenEast Jackson28.58
279Lynus CadarettePetoskey St. Michael30.17
2812Braylan MajeskyWhitmore Lake31.28
2911Utah GusaUbly31.47
3011Sawyer StonemanBreckenridge32.02
3112Ronin VadenJohannesburg-Lewiston32.55
329Landon RogersThree Oaks River Valley33.44
3310Tyler LaansmaTri-Unity Christian33.84
3411Luke SpragueSt Philip Catholic Central36.18
3512Alex MeszarosRiverview Gabriel Richard37.01
3611Ezra HagedornThe Potter’s House39.00
3711Charlie DeVriesByron Center Zion Christian43.98
3810Colebrook SutherlandMaple City Glen Lake44.03
3912Owen GrossBeal City48.48
409Marek ButkiewiczKalamazoo Hackett49.14
4112Merrick MichaelsonWest Bloomfield Frankel Jewish Academy49.29
429Brody KargHarbor Beach49.47
439Charlie GibsonThree Oaks River Valley50.33
449Grayson RorickHillsdale Academy50.62
4511Alex WantyHale50.97
4611Adam TownsendFrankfort53.89
4712John SchoenCapac54.51
4810Adam SlavensThree Oaks River Valley54.66
4912Kade SpahrPittsford56.61
5010Diego BoColeJackson Preparatory56.97
5112Caleb HowardWebberville57.17
5211Abe VanDuinenPentwater58.83
5311Malaki GaschoJohannesburg-Lewiston59.15
5412Brandon ThompsonPetersburg-Summerfield60.33
559Pierson CousinoAdrian Lenawee Christian63.75
5610Reece PooleHillsdale Academy64.07
579Edward MugishaThe Potter’s House65.37
5811TJ DonnanSouthfield Christian66.04
5912Jackson KulawiakBuckley66.13
6010Rodney IamurriSaginaw Nouvel66.57
6111Logan KihnkeHarbor Springs67.15
6212Chase SnellGrand Traverse Academy67.29
6311Max ShugarsSt Philip Catholic Central67.60
6411Javin MericleEast Jackson67.82
659Landen LivingstonWhitmore Lake68.90
6611Kaden ForwardBear Lake-Onekama71.05
6711Trevor ClarkeHarbor Springs71.08
6811Cameron GriffinWhitmore Lake71.09
699Abenezer CeroneRoyal Oak Shrine71.79
709Cody BradleyPetoskey St. Michael72.32
7111Isaac HummBreckenridge72.59
7210Alex TyndallMason County Eastern74.98
739Cole BatesConcord75.17
7411Nathan DanielsAdrian Lenawee Christian75.91
7512Lucas LangeAdrian Lenawee Christian76.59
7612Lars HuffmanMackinaw City77.55
7711Gavin SehyKalamazoo Hackett79.76
7811Connor RouseGenesee80.39
7912Bryson BachelderMorenci82.60
8011Owen McLoughlinSt. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic82.74
819Henry KruzelHarbor Springs84.73
829Cole UpperLincoln-Alcona84.80
8312Grant LongAdrian Lenawee Christian85.48
8410Isaac BignallUnionville-Sebewaing86.70
8512Jacob SkidmoreNovi Christian Academy87.36
8610Kaleb BrownPentwater89.36
8711Jacob LyonnaisMuskegon Catholic Central90.13
8811Austin YorkThree Oaks River Valley91.80
8912Gavin HancoxGobles93.47
9012Isaac WaldronConcord93.62
9112Caleb DienerHillsdale Academy93.82
9212Johnny BenkoRiverview Gabriel Richard93.89
9311Levi BenzingPetoskey St. Michael94.78
9411Carter FollettMerrill96.55
958Noah SchipperHolland Calvary Christian96.86
968Christian GetzHolland Calvary Christian97.18
9711Peter HybzaMason County Eastern97.30
9812Easton JagerBrown City98.40
999Sean SiemsKalamazoo Hackett99.11
10010Jeremiah WittJohannesburg-Lewiston100.08
100 deep?!?

Lezawe Osterink is clearly the class of the field. When he’s pushing the pace, as has happened a few times in 2022, at Spartan (15:20 – 218) and Portage (15:05 – 214), he’s one of the better runners to come through D4 in my memory. At Portage, probably the closest comparison to this field, he blew the rest of the field away by over a minute. He’ll be going for his second consecutive XC title.

GIRLS TEAM

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Podium %Top 10 %
1Johannesburg-Lewiston133789195+
2Harbor Springs158134795+
3Whitmore Lake16064395+
4Hillsdale Academy16831895+
5Rochester Hills Lutheran NW21895+
6Kingston28995+
7Unionville-Sebewaing31395+
8Ubly34271
9Auburn Hills Oakland Christian34369
10Grand Traverse Academy34752
11Leland36639
12Buckley37630
13Libertas Christian38216
14The Potter’s House38521
15Farwell395
16Pittsford407
17Kalamazoo Hackett412
18Beal City420
19Breckenridge423
20Royal Oak Shrine431
21St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic442
22Clarkston Everest Collegiate488
23Mendon493
24Concord539
25Adrian Lenawee Christian560
26Petoskey St. Michael560
27Fowler594

This is shaping up to be a very good team race. Although there’s a bit of a point gap between Johannesburg-Lewiston and Harbor Springs, Whitmore Lake, and Hillsdale Academy, there’s a decent enough chance that one of the latter three comes home with the trophy.

Both Johannesburg and Harbor Springs had a bump up the D4 rankings around mid-season. The Cardinals owed their rise to a 2nd place finish in a D2/D3-centric field at Bluejay, the Rams hung with the best D3 has to offer at Petoskey. The two schools have faced off recently, at Northern Michigan and Region 29, Harbor Springs capturing both of those by a grand total of one point (though Johannesburg was missing two of their varsity runners for Northern Michigan).

Hillsdale Academy and Whitmore Lake locked up at Holly, the Colts taking a 3 point victory, in large part through their 3rd girl coming in before the Trojans’ 2nd. That was before Natalie Meadows began to find the form that led her to an All-State finish last year. She’s been sub-21 in 4 of her past 5 races, leading Whitmore Lake to a MIAC title (perhaps, pound for pound, the best conference in the state). Hillsdale has had similar championship season success, attaining victories at both Class D and Region 34.

Team1st Girl2nd Girl3rd Girl4th Girl5th Girl6th Girl7th Girl
Johannesburg-Lewiston472743516291
Harbor Springs11163043587086
Whitmore Lake32536435294116
Hillsdale Academy13192949597083

You may notice that the 4th girls for Johannesburg-Lewiston, Whitmore Lake, and Harbor Springs all are listed in 43rd place. Given the simulations, this is an average place from anyone that’s projected to be their 4th runner. You could have a girl that’s mega consistent and projects to be between 40th-46th and another one with a range of 23rd-63rd. Both may emit the same average, but get there through wildly different scenarios.

TeamThru 1Thru 2Thru 3Thru 4Thru 5
Johannesburg Lewiston4123982133
Harbor Springs112757101158
Whitmore Lake32965107160
Hillsdale Academy133160109168

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Aiden HarrandBuckley1.14
210Presley AllenMendon2.49
39Carina BurchiWhitmore Lake3.97
411Ava TeedAllen Park Cabrini4.24
510Allie NowakJohannesburg-Lewiston6.06
610Izzy BrooksAdrian Lenawee Christian7.58
710Eliza KeithAuburn Hills Oakland Christian7.89
812Erika Van LotonHuron Valley Lutheran8.28
99Yolanda GaschoJohannesburg-Lewiston8.59
1012Petra FooteGrand Traverse Academy13.78
1112Grace ThorpeHarbor Springs14.16
1211Allison GlendeningSt. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic14.39
1311Miriam MurrellGaylord St. Mary15.01
1410Ella KnudsenLeland15.59
1512Megan RobertsHillsdale Academy15.90
1610Ava MallarPittsford16.60
1710Hannah GeaneyThe Potter’s House17.60
189Rowan AllenMendon18.58
1910Juniper RodhamHarbor Springs18.91
209Sadie SchoutLibertas Christian21.21
2111Isabella YeomanGenesee22.20
229Ruth BrownleeHillsdale Academy22.90
2310Lucy ShoupMason County Eastern27.87
2411Ivy AndreasThe Potter’s House29.27
2512Ashlyn KephartLansing Christian31.04
2610Isabelle EppertFarwell31.71
2711Brooke SmithPittsford32.91
2812Madeleine BargeRochester Hills Lutheran NW33.17
2911Natalie MeadowsWhitmore Lake33.19
3012Helana NapiorkowskiAustin Catholic33.56
319Lilah KileyKingston35.28
3212Mackenzie LemkeRochester Hills Lutheran NW35.50
3312Maze GusaUbly35.58
3412Kaylee LockeBeal City35.84
3512Gabriella ReinboldUnionville-Sebewaing37.06
3610Ella WaltonHillsdale Academy38.06
3710Kyra BeemerBrown City39.23
3811Leah ZarrilliAuburn Hills Oakland Christian39.70
3911Madalyn AgrenJohannesburg-Lewiston40.11
4010Tara ShouldiceHarbor Springs42.43
419Cieara BarrettConcord43.38
4212Sophia SanfordDeckerville45.56
439Emersyn BachelderMorenci53.22
4410Natalie GibbsBirmingham Roeper53.38
4510Reece WrubleHarbor Beach53.59
469Elodie WeaverWhitmore Lake55.29
4711Lily LemanskiMarlette57.89
4812Anna MitchellLake Leelanau St. Mary58.73
4912Brooke CravenWhitmore Lake58.79
509Madi HarePlymouth Christian Academy59.89
5112Aliz PusztaiLibertas Christian59.93
529Brooklynn FrazeeBuckley60.05
5312Julia TroxelRochester Hills Lutheran NW60.82
549Lizzie BassettHarbor Springs61.18
5510Stephanie HernandezAddison61.55
5612Dani VanLenteTekonsha62.34
579Lauren NiedzielskiMason County Eastern62.67
5810Jane MantheiPetoskey St. Michael62.70
5911Abby RiceRochester Hills Lutheran NW63.88
6012Sydney Van EsKalamazoo Hackett65.51
6110Riley McCumberPittsford65.83
6212Natalie ZochowskiJohannesburg-Lewiston65.93
6312Julia JonesGrand Traverse Academy67.81
6410Kelcie PungFowler67.97
659Taylor WiegandLivingston Christian68.05
6611Josie DubucNovi Christian Academy68.35
6710Mya DenoyerLeland69.35
689Sofia RobertsonWhitmore Lake69.71
6910Brielle VoorheesTri-Unity Christian70.23
7010Meeghan FlikkieKingston70.88
7111Gracy WalkerKingston71.29
729Ally SchmitzBreckenridge72.29
739Addison ChownykFrankfort72.74
7411Alberta ReinboldUnionville-Sebewaing73.00
7512Whitney WilkinsonHillsdale Academy73.29
7611Rosalinda GaschoJohannesburg-Lewiston77.01
779Madison CooleyGobles77.83
7812Natalie MalczykHuron Valley Lutheran78.11
7910Ava WilsonFruitport Calvary Christian80.20
8010Erica WalkerClarkston Everest Collegiate80.53
8110Ada GrubaughFrankfort81.39
8210Elke KnaufEast Jordan83.36
8311Cora MullinsJohannesburg-Lewiston84.62
8412Autumn WakefieldSaginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary85.01
8512Abigail GuzaUbly85.53
8611Jacqueline MortonMt. Pleasant Sacred Heart85.79
879Katie SweeneyUbly88.26
8812Cozette BrownPortland St. Patrick88.81
899Molly WalkerKingston90.13
909Abby BrownleeHillsdale Academy90.80
919Shenoah CollierGrand Traverse Academy91.65
929Fran WarrenHarbor Springs93.42
939Kaya RoseMt. Pleasant Sacred Heart93.97
949Emma RikerKalamazoo Hackett94.45
9512Cally CamaraMuskegon Catholic Central98.12
9611Abby KunkleLibertas Christian98.53
979Acacia WilliamsHolland Calvary Christian99.49
9811Lilli StanzelColon101.25
9912Michaela KurthLutheran HS Westland101.56
10010Avery WestallBreckenridge102.54

Aiden Harrand took her lumps behind Makenna Scott and Abby VanderKooi, now it’s time for her to shine on the cross course. She’s been undefeated this year at the D4 level, her only loss coming at Sparta against D3 competition. She’s no stranger to the big stage, placing top-5 here each of the past two years and winning titles on the track in the spring. Two efforts from her season speak to her potential dominance, the 18:41 in the heat at Sparta and the 18:33 at Shepherd.

Presley Allen has the best chance of anyone in the field of matching Aiden. Her 19:10 at Portage was only a few seconds back and she has championship experience as well, placing 6th here in 2021 and All-State in the 1600/3200m during the spring.

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