2022 Division 3 State Finals Preview

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around. See TullyRunners for a more mathy description of how these work.

You may notice that these previews are less intensive on the writing, this is intentional for my sanity. I feel that I (and Jacob Tanner) have done an excellent job of setting the stage throughout the year, if you’ve followed our work, you know what’s about to take place.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. Once again, I’ll leave you with a bit of advice from someone much smarter than I:

BOYS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Hart	108	94	95+	95+
2	Traverse City St. Francis	151	6	95+	95+
3	Saranac	217			95+
4	Hanover-Horton	242			95+
5	Reed City	243			95+
6	St. Louis	251			95+
7	Pewamo-Westphalia	280			95+
8	Benzie Central	302			80
9	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	306			65
10	Stanton Central Montcalm	308			66
11	Ithaca	309			70
12	Clare	335			17
13	Elk Rapids	391
14	Erie Mason	398
15	Caro	411
16	Leslie	424
17	Dansville	426
18	Saugatuck	428
19	Manchester	439
20	Jonesville	445
21	Bath	472
22	Buchanan	480
23	Sanford-Meridian	499
24	Kalamazoo Christian	540
25	Clinton	544
26	Stockbridge	548
27	Charyl Stockwell Academy	629
28	Algonac	662

All year, it’s been the Hart boys at the front. The Pirates’ reign began at Pete Moss, handily defeating a number of teams that are competing here and it has continued throughout the season, where they’ve dispatched any D3 team they’ve faced. Perhaps the closest comparison to the field here would be the D3 race at Portage. There, they were able to bring five runners to the finish faster than most could place their 3^rd or 4^th guys. Long story short, through five runners, there isn’t much weakness with this squad.

Traverse City St. Francis is likely the main competition or main chance at an upset. The Gladiators were 3^rd to Hart at Portage. They’ve been aided by the return of Josh Slocum and (I know it’s a fast course) just had their top five under 17:00 at East Jordan.

Saranac is listed highly here, a main reason being their strong 4^th and 5^th men, perhaps not apparent in smaller fields, though advantageous in larger fields. With that said, watch out for Grand Rapids Covenant Christian who placed four runners ahead of Saranac’s 2^nd guy over in Region 21.

Team	1st Boy	2nd Boy	3rd Boy	4th Boy	5th Boy	6th Boy	7th Boy
Hart	3	8	15	34	48	76	89
Traverse City St. Francis	13	19	28	40	50	61	72

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Hart	3	11	26	60	108
Traverse City St. Francis	13	32	60	100	150

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Hunter Jones	Benzie Central	1.00
2	12	Parks Allen	Ithaca	3.18
3	12	Clayton Ackley	Hart	3.93
4	11	Samuel Martini	Kent City	4.30
5	11	Collin Farmer	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.30
6	12	Nathan Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	5.48
7	12	Rogan Melling	Hanover-Horton	12.54
8	12	Wyatt Dean	Hart	12.69
9	12	Jake O’Neil	Remus Chippewa Hills	13.12
10	10	Theodore Davis	Dansville	13.69
11	11	Brad White	Clare	13.76
12	11	Ben March	St. Louis	14.31
13	9	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	15.51
14	11	Drew Moore	Grayling	16.51
15	12	William Winter	Parchment	18.40
16	12	Pol Molins	Benzie Central	19.78
17	12	Austin Brown	Hanover-Horton	20.13
18	12	Seth Ackley	Hart	21.25
19	12	Connor Stefanovsky	Caro	21.62
20	10	August Rohde	Reed City	22.21
21	11	Keegan Masters	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	22.35
22	11	Boden Genovese	Coloma	22.73
23	10	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	23.00
24	11	Simon VanderVlucht	Monroe St. Mary CC	23.89
25	11	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	24.06
26	12	Josh Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	25.48
27	12	Cameron Pierce	Leslie	26.99
28	12	Jackson Ansel	Erie Mason	27.45
29	12	Nathan Kippnick	Manchester	27.93
30	11	Nathan Day	Saranac	28.65
31	11	Matthew Pattullo	Caro	32.00
32	11	Alex Czeiszperger	Hudson	33.19
33	12	Logan Weis	Centreville	34.00
34	11	Ryan Allen	Reed City	35.47
35	11	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	39.62
36	10	Levi Kamps	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	39.98
37	11	Tucker Krumm	Traverse City St. Francis	41.13
38	10	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	42.13
39	11	Gannon Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	42.35
40	12	Collin Cook	Stockbridge	43.18
41	11	Anthony Kiaunis	Reed City	43.45
42	12	Andrew Hardy	Stanton Central Montcalm	43.53
43	12	Owen Fairchild	Montague	43.60
44	12	Caiden Kippnick	Manchester	45.15
45	11	Nic Porter	Clare	45.67
46	12	Sammy Schmidt	Dansville	46.18
47	12	Elijah Powell	Saranac	51.03
48	10	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	53.52
49	12	Ethan Glick	Constantine	54.15
50	11	Gavin Guggemos	Kalkaska	54.42
51	11	Nolan Grant	Hillsdale	55.29
52	12	Dade Allen	Benzie Central	55.37
53	12	Levi Maier	Chesaning	59.16
54	10	Max Stitt	Hart	59.38
55	12	Cole Yaros	New Lothrop	65.15
56	11	Paxton Hall	Lake City	65.26
57	10	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	66.21
58	10	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	67.08
59	10	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	68.33
60	11	Andrew Klaus	Clare	68.50
61	12	Caleb Bitely	Hart	68.64
62	12	Elliott Rodgers	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	69.57
63	12	Jude Meldrum-Roy	North Muskegon	70.36
64	12	John Sanderson	Bridgman	70.42
65	9	Landen Styka	Ithaca	71.00
66	10	Max Ward	Elk Rapids	71.13
67	12	Rhett Reif	Quincy	71.82
68	11	Jaren Vogel	Kent City	75.19
69	12	Jonah Shephard	Sanford-Meridian	75.52
70	12	Brody Amthor	Onsted	75.55
71	9	Ben Gautsche	Union City	76.11
72	12	Dylan Marr	St. Louis	77.00
73	11	Carter Holmes	Bath	77.03
74	11	Jack O’Donnell	Manistee	77.33
75	10	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	78.29
76	12	Logan Patrick	Manton	79.66
77	10	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	80.10
78	10	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	81.42
79	11	Gavin VanKampen	Jonesville	82.06
80	12	Judge Morgan	Traverse City St. Francis	82.93
81	10	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	83.81
82	9	Julian Walker	Algonac	84.08
83	11	Evan Shepherd	Hanover-Horton	84.76
84	12	Max Mader	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	84.82
85	12	Ashton Wells	Bronson	84.96
86	12	Ty Kailing	Reed City	86.87
87	11	Nick Lubbers	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	88.08
88	11	Hunter Helminski	Saranac	90.30
89	10	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	90.83
90	12	Evan Johnson	Saranac	91.88
91	9	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	92.79
92	10	Luke Skidmore	Bath	95.34
93	12	Ben Sluiter	Saranac	95.74
94	12	Raymond Rogers	Charyl Stockwell Academy	97.80
95	10	Evan Oosterhouse	Saranac	98.24
96	10	Luke Dykstra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	99.94
97	12	Mason Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	101.70
98	12	Isaac Bogard	Kalamazoo Christian	102.15
99	12	Caleb Pohl	Pewamo-Westphalia	103.04
100	10	Olin Kasperowicz	Traverse City St. Francis	103.38

Hunter Jones is the clear, unadulterated favorite. Since donning the Benzie Central outfit in 2019, he’s been undefeated in any Division 3 XC race, demoralizing fields from his first steps out of the box. With a victory, he joins the ranks of very few (Boyles, Olling, VanderKooi, I ain’t a history buff) in attaining four consecutive State Titles.

The question is who grabs the next few spots? Nathan Jenkins and Samuel Martini locked heads in Region 21, Jenkins pulling away in the last mile. Clayton Ackley has won over 75% of his races this year, the lone defeats coming against upper division competition, Jones, or Parks Allen. Really though, any of those four plus Collin Farmer could be slotted into those places and I wouldn’t be surprised.

GIRLS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	150	84	95+	95+
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	175	5	45	95+
3	Hart	176	8	42	95+
4	Jackson Lumen Christi	202		10	95+
5	Lansing Catholic	203		7	95+
6	Elk Rapids	214			95+
7	Caro	267			95+
8	Leslie	274			93
9	Benzie Central	292			85
10	Stanton Central Montcalm	296			61
11	Onsted	301			58
12	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	331			6
13	Blissfield	363
14	Kalamazoo Christian	381
15	Kent City	385
16	Charlevoix	411
17	Monroe St. Mary CC	414
18	Ithaca	436
19	Sandusky	438
20	Clinton	452
21	Remus Chippewa Hills	459
22	St. Louis	463
23	Schoolcraft	478
24	University Liggett	545
25	Buchanan	564
26	Stockbridge	693
27	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	733

Should be one of the better team battles of the day. Traverse City St. Francis has spent the entire year as the top-ranked girls team. The week to week rankings value depth, the projected scoring shows the Glads strength as well. St. Francis has the best chance of their 6^th and 7^th girls acting as displacers and they have the fastest fifth in the field. Once again, I feel the Portage field is the closest comparison to the State level. There, the TCSF girls won by 10+ points over a field that features a great number of top-10 squads.

The weekly rankings are derived from comparing across the entirety of the division, as if it were one giant team race. With 27 teams in a state field, teams with a bit “weaker” (a relative term, anyone that’s made it here is kicking butt) 3^rd-5^th runners aren’t ranked as low compared to scoring across 100+ teams. Essentially, Lansing Catholic and Hart have moved up for these projections. They haven’t just moved up because of the field structure, both have found their less heralded runners exhibiting massive improvement. The kind of which can move them up the leaderboards as points are to be had when you drop from mid-22’s to low-21’s in a month.

That said, Pewamo-Westphalia is a real contender, with their 2^nd through 6^th girls tightly packed, crossing the finish line at DeWitt only a minute apart, only six places apart, capturing the regional championship ahead of Lansing Catholic. With six strong runners, the Pirates have back up if one were to have an “off” day, but also they benefit from the added chance that one or more have incredible days.

Jackson Lumen Christi races as smart as anyone you’ll see, catching bodies in the last mile a norm for the Titans. Finally, at Region 28, Elk Rapids was able to place four girls under 20:00 (also ahead of TCSF’s 4^th).

Team	1st Girl	2nd Girl	3rd Girl	4th Girl	5th Girl	6th Girl	7th Girl
Traverse City St. Francis	9	12	29	46	55	65	85
Pewamo-Westphalia	15	25	29	44	62	71	92
Hart	1	5	41	60	69	78	92
Jackson Lumen Christi	6	27	44	58	67	86	99
Lansing Catholic	3	6	12	81	101	118	147
Elk Rapids	13	35	42	51	73	84	93

You may notice some places from different teams are the same. These are average places from each team’s respective runners, not a set in stone list.

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Traverse City St. Francis	9	21	49	95	150
Pewamo-Westphalia	15	40	69	113	175
Hart	1	6	47	107	176
Jackson Lumen Christi	6	33	77	135	202
Lansing Catholic	3	9	21	103	203
Elk Rapids	13	48	91	141	214

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jessica Jazwinski	Hart	1.02
2	10	Emmry Ross	Onsted	3.49
3	12	CC Jones	Lansing Catholic	4.09
4	11	Alyson Enns	Hart	4.65
5	10	Lila Volkers	Kent City	5.06
6	12	Hannah Pricco	Lansing Catholic	5.43
7	11	Madison Osterberg	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.84
8	10	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	10.33
9	12	Sophia Rhein	Traverse City St. Francis	10.84
10	10	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	11.82
11	12	Madeleine Hill	Saranac	12.97
12	11	Tessa Roe	Lansing Catholic	13.24
13	11	Mylie Kelly	Benzie Central	13.28
14	10	Grace VanderKooi	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	14.76
15	9	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	15.04
16	11	Kendra Koster	Lawton	16.02
17	11	Kinsie Jacques	Pinconning	16.74
18	10	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	18.11
19	10	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	18.53
20	11	Amber Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	21.35
21	12	Kara Terakedis	Onsted	22.37
22	11	Miranda McNeil	Morley-Stanwood	22.41
23	9	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	22.90
24	12	Ava Maginity	Boyne City	22.97
25	9	Hope Miller	Blissfield	25.83
26	11	Liliana Lehnst	Ithaca	26.14
27	12	Ellymae McCoy	Reese	26.33
28	9	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	26.66
29	11	Cecilia Postma	Manistee	32.93
30	11	Jaiden Dickman	St. Louis	34.15
31	10	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	35.33
32	10	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	36.45
33	9	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	36.50
34	10	Kaya Vrable	Caro	36.52
35	12	Abby Arens	Pewamo-Westphalia	37.15
36	9	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	37.65
37	12	Ella Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	37.95
38	10	Kerith Short	University Liggett	39.11
39	10	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	39.78
40	10	Grace Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	39.95
41	11	Laina Sladics	Charlevoix	41.59
42	10	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	44.01
43	11	Paige Herron	Caro	48.36
44	11	Jenna Sweeney	Reese	49.03
45	12	Emma Soelberg	Shelby	49.17
46	10	Jaidyn Smith	Leslie	49.27
47	12	Allie Koch	Manchester	49.87
48	11	Ava Hollandsworth	Remus Chippewa Hills	53.85
49	10	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	54.23
50	12	Sofia Oertel	Lawton	55.30
51	12	Jonathah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	57.29
52	10	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	57.68
53	11	Claire Neumann	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	57.89
54	10	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	59.97
55	9	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	59.99
56	11	Cylee Elkins	Clinton	60.45
57	9	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	60.47
58	11	Lily LeSarge	Grand Rapids West Catholic	61.21
59	12	Ashley Shindorf	Vassar	61.72
60	11	Kendall Standfest	Elk Rapids	62.34
61	10	Hunter Schellenbarger	Elk Rapids	64.68
62	11	Hayden Hengesbach	Pewamo-Westphalia	65.15
63	10	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	66.09
64	12	Bianca Delogu	Benzie Central	66.58
65	10	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	70.59
66	9	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	70.73
67	12	Annika Sytsma	Kalamazoo Christian	71.39
68	9	Olivia Forsberg	Clare	71.62
69	12	Hope Wilkes	Brooklyn Columbia Central	72.46
70	12	Lauren Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	73.02
71	11	Grace Folkema	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	73.95
72	12	Nora Smoes	Reed City	74.75
73	12	Penelope Griffioen	University Liggett	75.87
74	9	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	78.82
75	12	Caley Kerwin	Schoolcraft	78.97
76	12	Lainey Roth	Grand Rapids West Catholic	79.70
77	11	Rylee Duffing	Traverse City St. Francis	81.06
78	12	Allysen Jansen	Sandusky	81.57
79	12	Chloe Colton	Manton	82.00
80	12	Mari Cueto	Blissfield	83.48
81	11	Samantha Coots	Clinton	83.65
82	11	Faith Swenor	Caro	83.98
83	11	Gracie Houtman	Kent City	84.66
84	12	Carolyn Bennett	North Muskegon	84.67
85	11	Maddie Gallagher	Traverse City St. Francis	84.99
86	12	Lydia Kruis	Comstock	85.54
87	11	Margot Hagerty	Traverse City St. Francis	86.82
88	11	Katie Rohrer	Charlevoix	89.43
89	10	Madeline Young	Buchanan	89.60
90	10	Makenzie Kreger	Sandusky	89.69
91	12	Gabrielle Osterberg	Jackson Lumen Christi	90.78
92	11	Sydney Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	91.20
93	11	Angel Miller	Parchment	92.44
94	10	Emma Wittenbach	Pewamo-Westphalia	93.75
95	12	Aaliyah Cota	Tawas	95.24
96	9	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	95.47
97	10	Maddie Huysentruyt	Sandusky	97.30
98	12	Savanna Owens	Hart	98.86
99	12	Hadley Saylor	Manton	101.74
100	12	Elizabeth Smith	Sanford-Meridian	102.37

Jessica Jazwinski has spent all year as the top-ranked girl in Division 3 and for good reason. She’s run at difficult courses (Chippewa Hills) and she’s run fast times (17:15) in her season full of victories. Her aggressive style, ripping it straight from the gun has paid off, in the past six weeks, any opportunity she’s truly raced has ended with a sub-18 time.

As with the boys, any one of the next six could grab 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th, and I wouldn’t be shocked. Emmry Ross is the defending 400m state champ, undefeated on the year, has dropped nearly 2 minutes from her freshman best. Her and Alyson Enns are the only two girls to have gone sub-18 this fall. Madison Osterberg and Hannah Pricco are also blessed with 400m speed, both have also been All-State each time they’ve competed. CC Jones and Lila Volkers have shown championship mettle, CC capturing the Greater Lansing crown and Lila shredded the Allendale course in 18:03 en route to a regional victory. All six have had similar ratings throughout the year.