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2022 Division 3 State Finals Preview

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around. See TullyRunners for a more mathy description of how these work.

You may notice that these previews are less intensive on the writing, this is intentional for my sanity. I feel that I (and Jacob Tanner) have done an excellent job of setting the stage throughout the year, if you’ve followed our work, you know what’s about to take place.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. Once again, I’ll leave you with a bit of advice from someone much smarter than I:

BOYS TEAM

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Podium %Top 10 %
1Hart1089495+95+
2Traverse City St. Francis151695+95+
3Saranac21795+
4Hanover-Horton24295+
5Reed City24395+
6St. Louis25195+
7Pewamo-Westphalia28095+
8Benzie Central30280
9Grand Rapids Covenant Christian30665
10Stanton Central Montcalm30866
11Ithaca30970
12Clare33517
13Elk Rapids391
14Erie Mason398
15Caro411
16Leslie424
17Dansville426
18Saugatuck428
19Manchester439
20Jonesville445
21Bath472
22Buchanan480
23Sanford-Meridian499
24Kalamazoo Christian540
25Clinton544
26Stockbridge548
27Charyl Stockwell Academy629
28Algonac662

All year, it’s been the Hart boys at the front. The Pirates’ reign began at Pete Moss, handily defeating a number of teams that are competing here and it has continued throughout the season, where they’ve dispatched any D3 team they’ve faced. Perhaps the closest comparison to the field here would be the D3 race at Portage. There, they were able to bring five runners to the finish faster than most could place their 3rd or 4th guys. Long story short, through five runners, there isn’t much weakness with this squad.

Traverse City St. Francis is likely the main competition or main chance at an upset. The Gladiators were 3rd to Hart at Portage. They’ve been aided by the return of Josh Slocum and (I know it’s a fast course) just had their top five under 17:00 at East Jordan.

Saranac is listed highly here, a main reason being their strong 4th and 5th men, perhaps not apparent in smaller fields, though advantageous in larger fields. With that said, watch out for Grand Rapids Covenant Christian who placed four runners ahead of Saranac’s 2nd guy over in Region 21.

Team1st Boy2nd Boy3rd Boy4th Boy5th Boy6th Boy7th Boy
Hart381534487689
Traverse City St. Francis13192840506172

TeamThru 1Thru 2Thru 3Thru 4Thru 5
Hart3112660108
Traverse City St. Francis133260100150

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Hunter JonesBenzie Central1.00
212Parks AllenIthaca3.18
312Clayton AckleyHart3.93
411Samuel MartiniKent City4.30
511Collin FarmerPewamo-Westphalia5.30
612Nathan JenkinsGrandville Calvin Christian5.48
712Rogan MellingHanover-Horton12.54
812Wyatt DeanHart12.69
912Jake O’NeilRemus Chippewa Hills13.12
1010Theodore DavisDansville13.69
1111Brad WhiteClare13.76
1211Ben MarchSt. Louis14.31
139Gage HoffmanStanton Central Montcalm15.51
1411Drew MooreGrayling16.51
1512William WinterParchment18.40
1612Pol MolinsBenzie Central19.78
1712Austin BrownHanover-Horton20.13
1812Seth AckleyHart21.25
1912Connor StefanovskyCaro21.62
2010August RohdeReed City22.21
2111Keegan MastersOttawa Lake-Whiteford22.35
2211Boden GenoveseColoma22.73
2310Josh SlocumTraverse City St. Francis23.00
2411Simon VanderVluchtMonroe St. Mary CC23.89
2511Jaden BarnesBloomingdale24.06
2612Josh KerrTraverse City St. Francis25.48
2712Cameron PierceLeslie26.99
2812Jackson AnselErie Mason27.45
2912Nathan KippnickManchester27.93
3011Nathan DaySaranac28.65
3111Matthew PattulloCaro32.00
3211Alex CzeiszpergerHudson33.19
3312Logan WeisCentreville34.00
3411Ryan AllenReed City35.47
3511Graham CostonStanton Central Montcalm39.62
3610Levi KampsGrand Rapids Covenant Christian39.98
3711Tucker KrummTraverse City St. Francis41.13
3810Landon PestrueSt. Louis42.13
3911Gannon ShoreJackson Lumen Christi42.35
4012Collin CookStockbridge43.18
4111Anthony KiaunisReed City43.45
4212Andrew HardyStanton Central Montcalm43.53
4312Owen FairchildMontague43.60
4412Caiden KippnickManchester45.15
4511Nic PorterClare45.67
4612Sammy SchmidtDansville46.18
4712Elijah PowellSaranac51.03
4810Isaiah DinvernoJackson Lumen Christi53.52
4912Ethan GlickConstantine54.15
5011Gavin GuggemosKalkaska54.42
5111Nolan GrantHillsdale55.29
5212Dade AllenBenzie Central55.37
5312Levi MaierChesaning59.16
5410Max StittHart59.38
5512Cole YarosNew Lothrop65.15
5611Paxton HallLake City65.26
5710Allan GeorgePewamo-Westphalia66.21
5810Isaac EdgingtonHolland Black River67.08
5910Cade TruemnerPigeon-Laker68.33
6011Andrew KlausClare68.50
6112Caleb BitelyHart68.64
6212Elliott RodgersOttawa Lake-Whiteford69.57
6312Jude Meldrum-RoyNorth Muskegon70.36
6412John SandersonBridgman70.42
659Landen StykaIthaca71.00
6610Max WardElk Rapids71.13
6712Rhett ReifQuincy71.82
6811Jaren VogelKent City75.19
6912Jonah ShephardSanford-Meridian75.52
7012Brody AmthorOnsted75.55
719Ben GautscheUnion City76.11
7212Dylan MarrSt. Louis77.00
7311Carter HolmesBath77.03
7411Jack O’DonnellManistee77.33
7510Lewis WalterTraverse City St. Francis78.29
7612Logan PatrickManton79.66
7710Coleson CruzanWhite Cloud80.10
7810Andrew MabryBridgman81.42
7911Gavin VanKampenJonesville82.06
8012Judge MorganTraverse City St. Francis82.93
8110Matthias MorseMuskegon Western Michigan Christian83.81
829Julian WalkerAlgonac84.08
8311Evan ShepherdHanover-Horton84.76
8412Max MaderMadison Heights Bishop Foley84.82
8512Ashton WellsBronson84.96
8612Ty KailingReed City86.87
8711Nick LubbersGrand Rapids Covenant Christian88.08
8811Hunter HelminskiSaranac90.30
8910Riley PattinsonTraverse City St. Francis90.83
9012Evan JohnsonSaranac91.88
919Noah DevereauxLaingsburg92.79
9210Luke SkidmoreBath95.34
9312Ben SluiterSaranac95.74
9412Raymond RogersCharyl Stockwell Academy97.80
9510Evan OosterhouseSaranac98.24
9610Luke DykstraGrand Rapids Covenant Christian99.94
9712Mason SchimmelGrand Rapids Covenant Christian101.70
9812Isaac BogardKalamazoo Christian102.15
9912Caleb PohlPewamo-Westphalia103.04
10010Olin KasperowiczTraverse City St. Francis103.38

Hunter Jones is the clear, unadulterated favorite. Since donning the Benzie Central outfit in 2019, he’s been undefeated in any Division 3 XC race, demoralizing fields from his first steps out of the box. With a victory, he joins the ranks of very few (Boyles, Olling, VanderKooi, I ain’t a history buff) in attaining four consecutive State Titles.

The question is who grabs the next few spots? Nathan Jenkins and Samuel Martini locked heads in Region 21, Jenkins pulling away in the last mile. Clayton Ackley has won over 75% of his races this year, the lone defeats coming against upper division competition, Jones, or Parks Allen. Really though, any of those four plus Collin Farmer could be slotted into those places and I wouldn’t be surprised.

GIRLS TEAM

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Podium %Top 10 %
1Traverse City St. Francis1508495+95+
2Pewamo-Westphalia17554595+
3Hart17684295+
4Jackson Lumen Christi2021095+
5Lansing Catholic203795+
6Elk Rapids21495+
7Caro26795+
8Leslie27493
9Benzie Central29285
10Stanton Central Montcalm29661
11Onsted30158
12Muskegon Western Mich. Christian3316
13Blissfield363
14Kalamazoo Christian381
15Kent City385
16Charlevoix411
17Monroe St. Mary CC414
18Ithaca436
19Sandusky438
20Clinton452
21Remus Chippewa Hills459
22St. Louis463
23Schoolcraft478
24University Liggett545
25Buchanan564
26Stockbridge693
27Madison Heights Bishop Foley733

Should be one of the better team battles of the day. Traverse City St. Francis has spent the entire year as the top-ranked girls team. The week to week rankings value depth, the projected scoring shows the Glads strength as well. St. Francis has the best chance of their 6th and 7th girls acting as displacers and they have the fastest fifth in the field. Once again, I feel the Portage field is the closest comparison to the State level. There, the TCSF girls won by 10+ points over a field that features a great number of top-10 squads.

The weekly rankings are derived from comparing across the entirety of the division, as if it were one giant team race. With 27 teams in a state field, teams with a bit “weaker” (a relative term, anyone that’s made it here is kicking butt) 3rd-5th runners aren’t ranked as low compared to scoring across 100+ teams. Essentially, Lansing Catholic and Hart have moved up for these projections. They haven’t just moved up because of the field structure, both have found their less heralded runners exhibiting massive improvement. The kind of which can move them up the leaderboards as points are to be had when you drop from mid-22’s to low-21’s in a month.

That said, Pewamo-Westphalia is a real contender, with their 2nd through 6th girls tightly packed, crossing the finish line at DeWitt only a minute apart, only six places apart, capturing the regional championship ahead of Lansing Catholic. With six strong runners, the Pirates have back up if one were to have an “off” day, but also they benefit from the added chance that one or more have incredible days.

Jackson Lumen Christi races as smart as anyone you’ll see, catching bodies in the last mile a norm for the Titans. Finally, at Region 28, Elk Rapids was able to place four girls under 20:00 (also ahead of TCSF’s 4th).

Team1st Girl2nd Girl3rd Girl4th Girl5th Girl6th Girl7th Girl
Traverse City St. Francis9122946556585
Pewamo-Westphalia15252944627192
Hart154160697892
Jackson Lumen Christi6274458678699
Lansing Catholic361281101118147
Elk Rapids13354251738493

You may notice some places from different teams are the same. These are average places from each team’s respective runners, not a set in stone list.

TeamThru 1Thru 2Thru 3Thru 4Thru 5
Traverse City St. Francis9214995150
Pewamo-Westphalia154069113175
Hart1647107176
Jackson Lumen Christi63377135202
Lansing Catholic3921103203
Elk Rapids134891141214
An advancement! Color coded by something close to school colors!

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Jessica JazwinskiHart1.02
210Emmry RossOnsted3.49
312CC JonesLansing Catholic4.09
411Alyson EnnsHart4.65
510Lila VolkersKent City5.06
612Hannah PriccoLansing Catholic5.43
711Madison OsterbergJackson Lumen Christi5.84
810Kyah HoffmanStanton Central Montcalm10.33
912Sophia RheinTraverse City St. Francis10.84
1010Betsy SkendzelTraverse City St. Francis11.82
1112Madeleine HillSaranac12.97
1211Tessa RoeLansing Catholic13.24
1311Mylie KellyBenzie Central13.28
1410Grace VanderKooiMuskegon Western Mich. Christian14.76
159Brynne SchulteElk Rapids15.04
1611Kendra KosterLawton16.02
1711Kinsie JacquesPinconning16.74
1810Eliza BushYpsilanti Arbor Preparatory18.11
1910Whitney WernerPewamo-Westphalia18.53
2011Amber KooleGrand Rapids Covenant Christian21.35
2112Kara TerakedisOnsted22.37
2211Miranda McNeilMorley-Stanwood22.41
239Bella LaFountainMonroe St. Mary CC22.90
2412Ava MaginityBoyne City22.97
259Hope MillerBlissfield25.83
2611Liliana LehnstIthaca26.14
2712Ellymae McCoyReese26.33
289Grace CostonStanton Central Montcalm26.66
2911Cecilia PostmaManistee32.93
3011Jaiden DickmanSt. Louis34.15
3110Ashley ChoponisStanton Central Montcalm35.33
3210Erin LubahnLeslie36.45
339Hailey CreisherLeslie36.50
3410Kaya VrableCaro36.52
3512Abby ArensPewamo-Westphalia37.15
369Macy FazekasJackson Lumen Christi37.65
3712Ella KowatchPewamo-Westphalia37.95
3810Kerith ShortUniversity Liggett39.11
3910Chloe StalhoodHillsdale39.78
4010Grace SlocumTraverse City St. Francis39.95
4111Laina SladicsCharlevoix41.59
4210Ava HathawayBronson44.01
4311Paige HerronCaro48.36
4411Jenna SweeneyReese49.03
4512Emma SoelbergShelby49.17
4610Jaidyn SmithLeslie49.27
4712Allie KochManchester49.87
4811Ava HollandsworthRemus Chippewa Hills53.85
4910Alaina KloosterKalamazoo Christian54.23
5012Sofia OertelLawton55.30
5112Jonathah BouwmanGrandville Calvin Christian57.29
5210Lola BryceGrandville Calvin Christian57.68
5311Claire NeumannSaginaw Valley Lutheran57.89
5410Lexie Beth NienhuisHart59.97
559Quinn HatfieldRemus Chippewa Hills59.99
5611Cylee ElkinsClinton60.45
579Anna PrayElk Rapids60.47
5811Lily LeSargeGrand Rapids West Catholic61.21
5912Ashley ShindorfVassar61.72
6011Kendall StandfestElk Rapids62.34
6110Hunter SchellenbargerElk Rapids64.68
6211Hayden HengesbachPewamo-Westphalia65.15
6310Nora GrossnickleBenzie Central66.09
6412Bianca DeloguBenzie Central66.58
6510Layla LopezJackson Lumen Christi70.59
669Ashlynn HarrisBronson70.73
6712Annika SytsmaKalamazoo Christian71.39
689Olivia ForsbergClare71.62
6912Hope WilkesBrooklyn Columbia Central72.46
7012Lauren BrawtSanford-Meridian73.02
7111Grace FolkemaMuskegon Western Mich. Christian73.95
7212Nora SmoesReed City74.75
7312Penelope GriffioenUniversity Liggett75.87
749Hailey SillsBlissfield78.82
7512Caley KerwinSchoolcraft78.97
7612Lainey RothGrand Rapids West Catholic79.70
7711Rylee DuffingTraverse City St. Francis81.06
7812Allysen JansenSandusky81.57
7912Chloe ColtonManton82.00
8012Mari CuetoBlissfield83.48
8111Samantha CootsClinton83.65
8211Faith SwenorCaro83.98
8311Gracie HoutmanKent City84.66
8412Carolyn BennettNorth Muskegon84.67
8511Maddie GallagherTraverse City St. Francis84.99
8612Lydia KruisComstock85.54
8711Margot HagertyTraverse City St. Francis86.82
8811Katie RohrerCharlevoix89.43
8910Madeline YoungBuchanan89.60
9010Makenzie KregerSandusky89.69
9112Gabrielle OsterbergJackson Lumen Christi90.78
9211Sydney FazekasJackson Lumen Christi91.20
9311Angel MillerParchment92.44
9410Emma WittenbachPewamo-Westphalia93.75
9512Aaliyah CotaTawas95.24
969Tierney HartmanGrayling95.47
9710Maddie HuysentruytSandusky97.30
9812Savanna OwensHart98.86
9912Hadley SaylorManton101.74
10012Elizabeth SmithSanford-Meridian102.37

Jessica Jazwinski has spent all year as the top-ranked girl in Division 3 and for good reason. She’s run at difficult courses (Chippewa Hills) and she’s run fast times (17:15) in her season full of victories. Her aggressive style, ripping it straight from the gun has paid off, in the past six weeks, any opportunity she’s truly raced has ended with a sub-18 time.

As with the boys, any one of the next six could grab 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and I wouldn’t be shocked. Emmry Ross is the defending 400m state champ, undefeated on the year, has dropped nearly 2 minutes from her freshman best. Her and Alyson Enns are the only two girls to have gone sub-18 this fall. Madison Osterberg and Hannah Pricco are also blessed with 400m speed, both have also been All-State each time they’ve competed. CC Jones and Lila Volkers have shown championship mettle, CC capturing the Greater Lansing crown and Lila shredded the Allendale course in 18:03 en route to a regional victory. All six have had similar ratings throughout the year.

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