2022 Division 2 State Finals Preview

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around. See TullyRunners for a more mathy description of how these work.

You may notice that these previews are less intensive on the writing, this is intentional for my sanity. I feel that I (and Jacob Tanner) have done an excellent job of setting the stage throughout the year, if you’ve followed our work, you know what’s about to take place.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. I hope you’re able to embrace the big and small moments this weekend. These are the memories that will stick with you forever. Let’s make some good ones.

BOYS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Pinckney	134	53	84	95+
2	Chelsea	146	23	54	95+
3	East Grand Rapids	149	22	53	95+
4	Forest Hills Eastern	173		2	95+
5	Adrian	182		5	95+
6	Grand Rapids Christian	212		2	95+
7	Otsego	237			95+
8	Dearborn Divine Child	253			95+
9	St. Johns	292			95+
10	Freeland	324			80
11	Allendale	365			13
12	St. Clair	380
13	Petoskey	384
14	Sparta	387
15	Linden	389			6
16	Clio	412
17	Hamilton	413
18	Fremont	416
19	Grand Rapids South Christian	455
20	Yale	475
21	Alma	482
22	Mason	489
23	Corunna	564
24	Plainwell	596
25	St. Joseph	603
26	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	605
27	Armada	641

Here lies the race of the day, three teams with very viable chances to claim the title. All were present in the top-5 over the summer, all have been in the top-5 throughout the past month. There have been a few notable matchups between the three. Spartan, where Chelsea came through and East Grand Rapids left battered and motivated. Otsego Bulldog, where East Grand Rapids exacted revenge. And Portage, where Pinckney upended the state and escaped with a 5-point victory.

The three bring forth different styles and compositions to their scoring. Pinckney is stronger up front, their 5^th rapidly improving. In comparison, East Grand Rapids is a bit behind Pinckney with regard to their top guys, but has a consistently stronger 5^th. Chelsea is a blend between the two, again with great depth and the ability to displace.

Speaking of quality depth, Forest Hills Eastern can always rely on the adage that the fastest fifth wins. I’ll have to do a deep dive on this after the season, but my estimation is that 90-95% of the time, the team with the fastest fifth wins the state title.

Team	1st Boy	2nd Boy	3rd Boy	4th Boy	5th Boy	6th Boy	7th Boy
Pinckney	4	15	20	25	69	90	124
Chelsea	1	17	25	46	56	67	89
East Grand Rapids	15	21	27	36	50	73	85
Forest Hills Eastern	5	34	40	45	49	57	85
Adrian	7	10	28	57	80	101	117
Grand Rapids Christian	12	35	47	55	63	76	120
Otsego	18	33	46	62	78	98	125

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Pinckney	4	20	39	65	134
Chelsea	1	19	44	90	146
East Grand Rapids	15	36	63	99	149
Forest Hills Eastern	5	39	79	124	173
Adrian	7	17	45	102	182
Grand Rapids Christian	12	47	94	149	212
Otsego	18	51	98	160	237

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Connell Alford	Chelsea	1.53
2	12	Joey Bowman	St. Johns	3.97
3	12	Michael Hegarty	Dearborn Divine Child	4.51
4	12	Carter McCalister	Monroe Jefferson	4.61
5	11	Evan Loughridge	Pinckney	5.01
6	12	Aiden Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	5.97
7	12	Kyle Eberhard	Linden	6.13
8	12	Aiden Smith	Adrian	8.79
9	10	TJ Hansen	Freeland	10.29
10	11	Braylon Petty	Adrian	11.11
11	11	Nate Carmody	Haslett	11.62
12	11	Solomon Kwartowitz	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	12.68
13	10	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	14.05
14	11	Gregory Janesak	Sparta	15.15
15	12	Braydon Honsinger	Freeland	21.81
16	11	Ryan Brinker	East Grand Rapids	21.91
17	11	Nolan Nixon	Cadillac	23.30
18	11	Ethan Sandula	Pinckney	23.47
19	12	Bram Hartsuff	Chelsea	24.86
20	11	Alex Thole	East Grand Rapids	25.44
21	12	Colin Wesseldyk	Otsego	25.59
22	12	Zach Debeauclair	Pinckney	26.27
23	11	Paul Moore	Pinckney	26.34
24	12	Zebedee Swager	Chelsea	28.57
25	12	Carter Boullard	St. Clair	28.69
26	11	Nolan Pinion	Lake Fenton	29.06
27	12	Camden Khon	Armada	29.98
28	11	Elliott Sirianni	Clio	30.63
29	11	Shane Izzard	Petoskey	31.94
30	11	Logan Ruffner	Riverview	32.77
31	11	Noah Lambers	Holland	32.95
32	12	Andre Richmond	Whitehall	33.85
33	12	Caleb Boes	Grand Rapids South Christian	35.06
34	12	Elijah Robinson	East Grand Rapids	35.70
35	12	Max VanHuis	Hamilton	37.01
36	9	Moises Salazar	Adrian	37.16
37	11	Isaac Staib	St. Johns	37.25
38	12	Owen Westerkamp	Big Rapids	38.35
39	12	Camden Johnecheck	Williamston	39.20
40	10	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	40.06
41	12	Carter McIlroy	Whitehall	44.33
42	9	Thomas Larson	Alma	46.26
43	10	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	47.09
44	9	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	48.11
45	12	Luke Morrison	Berrien Springs	49.67
46	10	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	50.24
47	10	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	50.52
48	11	Brendan Hoving	Forest Hills Eastern	51.73
49	12	Koda Brandt	Charlotte	53.99
50	10	Seth Mead	Gladwin	54.11
51	10	Alex Doneth	Mason	59.76
52	11	Lucas Hopkins	Olivet	60.00
53	11	David Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	61.02
54	12	Devin Weaver	Wayland Union	62.86
55	12	Adrian Castillo	Holland	63.04
56	10	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	63.63
57	12	Tyler Dohm	St. Johns	64.13
58	11	Blake Ferguson	Yale	65.17
59	10	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	65.37
60	10	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	65.60
61	10	Landen Wise	Frankenmuth	65.62
62	12	Gavin Wiersma	Zeeland East	66.75
63	10	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	69.52
64	11	Liam Hinman	Forest Hills Eastern	70.12
65	12	Joseph VanderKooi	Grand Rapids South Christian	70.45
66	10	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	71.05
67	11	Joe Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	71.20
68	12	Will Vanderbor	Paw Paw	72.24
69	10	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	72.68
70	12	Tyler Heath	Clio	73.70
71	12	Alex Parker	Forest Hills Eastern	73.72
72	12	David Harris	St. Clair	74.59
73	11	Cooper Jacobsen	Forest Hills Eastern	75.53
74	11	Davis Christy	East Grand Rapids	75.72
75	11	Dylan Clark	Grand Rapids Christian	77.03
76	12	Pierce Bentley	Otsego	78.66
77	12	Nik Shilling	Ortonville Brandon	79.92
78	11	Aiden Kruger	Niles	79.94
79	12	Nick Spruce	Chelsea	80.44
80	11	Sean Pettis	Fremont	81.93
81	12	Ryan Blackwood	Linden	82.22
82	11	Jackson Dell	Chelsea	85.61
83	11	Andrew Yax	Clio	87.76
84	12	Reuben Wiering	Grand Rapids Christian	88.09
85	9	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	89.16
86	11	William O’Dell	Battle Creek Harper Creek	89.74
87	9	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	90.09
88	12	Ben Schefka	Adrian	90.36
89	11	Cooper Singleton	Parma Western	92.71
90	12	Ben Knuth	Big Rapids	92.91
91	10	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	93.36
92	11	Peter Kuperus	Grand Rapids Christian	93.97
93	10	Leo Swager	Chelsea	94.75
94	11	Jacob Montgomery	Ionia	95.42
95	9	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	95.53
96	10	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	95.63
97	12	Luke Aldrich	Otsego	95.97
98	12	Ryan Morris	New Boston Huron	96.92
99	12	James Meninga	Mason	97.65
100	12	Nathan Ulcak	Dearborn Divine Child	98.09

Connell Alford opened the season with a few times that gave evidence of eye-popping potential, 15:30’s on hotter early season meets at Sharp Park and the Meadows. When it came time to truly race, it’s been a steady stream of records and dominance. Spartan, Bulldog, Portage, SEC, Regionals, he’s put at least a 10 second gap on anyone from a D2 school. He’s the clear favorite, but those gaps are closing.

As is the case with many of the previous matchups, this should be a quality race for second and perhaps an upset victory. Joey Bowman has been sub-16 in every last race and only has one loss to his name. Michael Hegarty for the fourth year in a row has posted a PB in early October and drove his times down further than that. Carter McCalister was right there with Hegarty in Region 18, racing to a 15:07 on a quick Milan course. Kyle Eberhard has kept up his penchant of championship wins, grabbing the FML and Greater Flint crowns. Aiden Sullivan may have the best footspeed. Evan Loughridge is the most improved of the bunch and comes off a regional victory.

GIRLS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	East Grand Rapids	95	84	99	95+
2	Otsego	118	14	84	95+
3	Grand Rapids Christian	148		17	95+
4	Forest Hills Eastern	210			95+
5	Spring Lake	216			95+
6	St. Joseph	227			95+
7	Zeeland East	258			95+
8	Goodrich	274			95+
9	Alma	318			74
10	St. Johns	330			43
11	Petoskey	347			18
12	Williamston	355			16
13	Frankenmuth	359			12
14	Grand Rapids South Christian	360			14
15	Monroe Jefferson	369			19
16	Adrian	395			6
17	Ludington	419			0
18	Owosso	428			0
19	Freeland	435			0
20	Chelsea	467			0
21	Cadillac	474			0
22	Croswell-Lexington	479			0
23	St. Clair	527			0
24	Linden	566			0
25	Warren Regina	569			0
26	Vicksburg	587			0
27	Detroit Country Day	606			0

With their contrasting styles, East Grand Rapids and Otsego will lock up for a colossal matchup. Since the beginning of championship season, the two squads have been ranked in the top 2 spots.

Somewhat controversially, East Grand Rapids has held the top spot. The reason may be in my ranking philosophy. I don’t look at head to head matchups or meet scores, I use the top 7 runners from a squad, regardless if they all ran in the same meet. The Pioneers have had very few occasions where all of their best girls have competed together. More recent meets (OK White Championship and Region 12) can give a glimpse into how EGR performs with their full (or top six) varsity girls racing. The OK White Meet had five girls under 19:10 (quick course), at Region 12, they were able to put six girls in the top 20.

Otsego has sat in that #2 spot for the past month, rightfully wondering why they’re so low. After all, the Bulldogs have picked up victories in D2-heavy fields at Spartan, Cougar Falcon, Otsego Bulldog, and Portage. The big race experience is there, I should say the big race WINNING experience is there.

Grand Rapids Christian is pretty solidly in third, a position they’ve been in for the majority of the past month. The Eagles hold it down there despite missing Naomi Nelson, a testament to everyone stepping up in her absence. Spring Lake gave them a stiff test at Region 11, but the patient racing paid off in the final mile and in the standings.

*LATE EDIT* a few people pointed out that Naomi Nelson is now in the entries. To be efficient on a tight schedule, I did all the calculating and simulating on Tuesday and she wasn’t listed then. This changes things up a bit. My immediate guess is she’s worth at least 30 points, perhaps even 50. Which throws Grand Rapids Christian smack into the top 3 with a very real shot of winning the whole thing. Since these are the actual predictions and I hope I’ve built up enough leeway to do this, I’ll deviate from the normal numbers – 1. East Grand Rapids, 2. – Grand Rapids Christian, 3 – Otsego.

Team	1st Girl	2nd Girl	3rd Girl	4th Girl	5th Girl	6th Girl	7th Girl
East Grand Rapids	2	14	20	25	35	47	72
Otsego	5	7	11	16	79	114	133
Grand Rapids Christian	2	15	23	47	63	74	89

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
East Grand Rapids	2	16	35	60	95
Otsego	5	12	23	39	118
Grand Rapids Christian	2	17	39	86	148

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Drew Muller	East Grand Rapids	1.74
2	11	Natalie VanOtteren	Grand Rapids Christian	1.79
3	11	Allison Kuzma	Zeeland East	3.37
4	11	Mary Richmond	Frankenmuth	4.10
5	11	Megan Germain	Otsego	5.16
6	9	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	8.34
7	10	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	9.87
8	12	Emma Janesak	Sparta	12.74
9	11	Clara Fletcher	St. Johns	13.91
10	11	Jenna Pilachowski	Monroe Jefferson	13.94
11	11	Logan Brazee	Otsego	14.37
12	11	CamBrie Corey	Petoskey	14.50
13	12	Lily Parker	Spring Lake	15.29
14	10	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	16.33
15	10	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	16.94
16	11	Gail Vaikutis	St. Joseph	17.15
17	11	Meghan Ford	Mason	17.79
18	9	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	18.12
19	10	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	20.17
20	11	Emily Tomes	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	22.22
21	10	Ezgi Kurt	Alma	23.26
22	11	Addison Washler	Forest Hills Eastern	24.04
23	10	Madeline Loe	Petoskey	25.85
24	9	Gracie Lynn	East Grand Rapids	26.73
25	11	Payton Holtz	Grand Rapids Christian	26.97
26	9	Reese Lynn	East Grand Rapids	27.20
27	9	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	28.52
28	12	Alisa Mason	Holland	32.00
29	10	Lexie Ruffing	Spring Lake	35.92
30	12	Sarah Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	35.97
31	10	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	37.28
32	10	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	38.16
33	11	Abby Young	St. Johns	38.63
34	12	Sophie Endrud	Detroit Country Day	42.05
35	12	Ellory Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	42.32
36	11	Nora O’Leary	Petoskey	42.72
37	11	Camille DeCola	Marshall	43.53
38	10	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	45.37
39	12	Kaylee Pesta	Tecumseh	46.09
40	10	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	47.11
41	12	Ariel Warner	Shepherd	47.98
42	9	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	48.74
43	11	Emma DeVries	GR West Michigan Aviation	50.18
44	12	Camryn Bodine	East Grand Rapids	50.21
45	10	Joy Evans	Alma	50.41
46	12	Olivia Barabas	Wayland Union	50.76
47	10	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	52.23
48	11	Ashlyn Smith	Forest Hills Eastern	55.45
49	12	Olivia Ippel	St. Joseph	56.25
50	11	Emma Steele	Vicksburg	57.27
51	11	Morgan Newton	Croswell-Lexington	57.48
52	9	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	57.65
53	10	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	57.84
54	12	Gianna-Marie Schubert	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	58.23
55	10	Jaiden Griffith	Williamston	58.23
56	10	Summer Brower	Ludington	59.27
57	9	Linnea Paige	Fremont	60.97
58	12	Catrina Farris	Hamilton	62.09
59	9	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	62.21
60	12	Lauren Hunter	Haslett	62.23
61	11	Ellia Agar	Grand Rapids South Christian	63.27
62	11	Sophia Lado	East Grand Rapids	63.63
63	10	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	66.19
64	10	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	67.18
65	12	Abby O’Brien	Comstock Park	68.69
66	11	Remington Arney	Newaygo	70.50
67	11	Libby Summerland	Owosso	71.51
68	9	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	72.16
69	10	Mea D’agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	74.42
70	10	Karie Keefer	Freeland	75.85
71	9	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	75.97
72	11	Bea Reeser	Spring Lake	76.21
73	9	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	76.31
74	9	Jada Prescott	Freeland	79.03
75	12	Ariana Treat	Whitehall	79.04
76	11	Anastee Davis	Adrian	81.80
77	11	Alexis Waring	Goodrich	82.41
78	9	Christina Theis	Ludington	82.79
79	10	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	82.92
80	10	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	82.98
81	12	Ava Pergitone	St. Clair	83.06
82	10	Autumn Thompson	DeWitt	84.24
83	11	Yoselin Fermin-Campos	Adrian	84.30
84	12	Ava Buhlman	Allendale	84.57
85	10	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	84.81
86	12	Sarah Timmer	Grand Rapids Christian	85.86
87	10	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	86.05
88	9	Sydney Ferguson	DeWitt	87.35
89	10	Desiree Duque-Rico	GR West Michigan Aviation	88.67
90	11	Brianna Albers	Richmond	88.88
91	10	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	92.44
92	10	Maddie Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	92.74
93	10	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	92.77
94	10	Marisa Chuey	Trenton	92.78
95	9	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	94.35
96	9	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	95.66
97	10	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	95.69
98	12	Abigail Petr	East Grand Rapids	97.68
99	9	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	101.03
100	12	Anna Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	102.15

The individual title looks to be a competitive head-to-head throwdown between two conference foes. Both have grabbed victory in matchups between each other, Drew Muller in more recent races, Natalie VanOtteren early in the year. The two ventured separate ways for Regionals, both winning their respective races. Natalie had an impressive effort, pulling away from Allison Kuzma in the late miles, Drew may have been saving herself for this big weekend ahead.

Both Kuzma and Mary Richmond have been here before, All-State, placing highly in their sophomore races. They have the greatest chance of anyone to climb into the top two.