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2022 Division 1 State Finals Preview

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around. See TullyRunners for a more mathy description of how these work.

You may notice that these previews are less intensive on the writing, this is intentional for my sanity. I feel that I (and Jacob Tanner) have done an excellent job of setting the stage throughout the year, if you’ve followed our work, you know what’s about to take place.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. I hope you’re able to embrace the big and small moments this weekend. These are the memories that will stick with you forever. Let’s make some good ones.

BOYS TEAM

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Podium %Top 10 %
1Northville12195+95+95+
2Traverse City Central2014595+
3Plymouth2072795+
4Brighton2162395+
5Portage Central25395+
6Ann Arbor Skyline26095+
7Clarkston26594
8Saline29687
9Grand Haven32249
10Romeo32255
11Forest Hills Central33339
12Kalamazoo Central34629
13Troy35221
14Detroit Catholic Central35422
15Zeeland West400
16Port Huron Northern405
17Jenison410
18Livonia Churchill415
19Utica417
20Highland-Milford422
21White Lake Lakeland429
22Ann Arbor Pioneer435
23Saginaw Heritage473
24Dexter474
25Fraser500
26Bay City Western610
27Monroe654

The Northville boys have done a pretty satisfactory job of not taking the cheese, holding onto their #1 ranking all year. They were victors in the KLAA and on their fantastic voyages to the state’s larger meets (Spartan and Portage), they came out with trophies, both wins by a considerable margin.

It’s a very intriguing battle for 2nd, three teams by the numbers plus a few more that I think could slide in there as well. Saline defeated many of these teams at Portage. At KLAA, Plymouth and Brighton were as close to Northville as you’ll find. Ann Arbor Skyline had their day at Jackson, Traverse City Central had their day at Bluejay, and Clarkston won the OAA Red (and likely would’ve won Oakland County at full strength). In a congested field with many 3rd-7th runners capable of running 16:30-17:15, who can find themselves on the right end of packs will find success getting to the podium.

Team1st Boy2nd Boy3rd Boy4th Boy5th Boy6th Boy7th Boy
Traverse City Central916385683131146
Plymouth42048627385117
Brighton111848637698131
Portage Central2233486586120147
Ann Arbor Skyline9223149149166178
Clarkston2433486495140158
Saline13204997116126147

TeamThru 1Thru 2Thru 3Thru 4Thru 5
Traverse City Central92462118201
Plymouth42472134207
Brighton112977140216
Portage Central2254102167253
Ann Arbor Skyline93262111260
Clarkston2457106170265
Saline133382180296

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Benne AndersonGrand Rapids Ottawa Hills1.42
211Seth NorderGrand Haven1.63
311Brendan HergerNorthville3.60
411Thomas WestphalAnchor Bay4.88
512Trent McFarlandUtica5.13
612Sean ByrnesPlymouth6.09
712Jonah HochstetlerTraverse City West8.40
811Jasper CaneKalamazoo Central8.81
912Joe MuhaTraverse City Central14.94
1012Nicolas FryAnn Arbor Skyline15.16
1112Ethan PruzinskyAuburn Hills Avondale17.32
1212Jared PlattWhite Lake Lakeland18.41
1311Vishvaa RavishankarTroy18.85
1411Tyler LangleyBrighton19.49
1511Aiden MooreBattle Creek Lakeview20.23
1611Ty ParkerWalled Lake Northern21.11
1711Sebastian RamirezRoyal Oak21.12
1811Vincent GuaresimoRomeo21.71
1912Samuel JacksonSaline22.10
2012Micah BauerTraverse City Central24.46
2112Jordan DomanyCaledonia24.91
2212Brady HeronNorthville25.76
2311Brandon AndersonDexter25.97
2412Logan DetweilerGrosse Pointe South26.22
2512Brady MatuszewskiBrighton27.97
2612Caleb BranchMuskegon Mona Shores28.20
2712Ethan KrampeForest Hills Central28.30
2811Connor ClorRomeo29.21
2911Truman JohnsonSaline31.19
3012Alex BobakPlymouth32.01
3110Taye (Sintayehu) LevensonBloomfield Hills35.34
3211Liam WaltersGrand Rapids Ottawa Hills38.37
3311Luke SulimanAnn Arbor Skyline38.47
3412Colin GrahamRockford39.24
3511Kenny LewisSaginaw Heritage40.31
3610Ethan PowellNorthville40.41
3712Benjamin SmithHartland40.68
3811Noah SelvarajBay City Western41.22
3912Griffin ConwayNovi41.46
4010Logan MullanDetroit U-D Jesuit41.97
4111Iain ForrestDavison44.11
4212Matthew ShortBerkley46.16
4311Bryce NowikClarkston46.34
4412Owen LawrenceEast Kentwood47.46
4512Jaben BakkerHudsonville48.34
4612Brock MalaikalNorthville49.48
4712Nathan RidderingNovi50.04
4812Glen DavisPort Huron Northern50.68
4912Justin RooseFraser51.21
5012Henry PoploskieClarkston52.22
5112Elliot CareySalem55.27
5212Christopher Van LentAnn Arbor Skyline55.65
5312Ben HunterPortage Central57.13
5412Samuel RobertsDearborn58.40
5511Logan BegemanPortage Central59.03
5611Pierce GrzymkowskiWhite Lake Lakeland59.48
5712Seth PiangaLivonia Churchill59.52
5812Joshua GormleyPortage Central62.84
5911Tyler DonovanFraser66.56
6012Caleb BostBattle Creek Lakeview66.72
6111Jaxon AllenMuskegon Reeths-Puffer69.84
6211Willem DeGoodTraverse City West70.09
6312Nathan KaticFenton70.20
6411Dylan PenberthyL’Anse Creuse North70.96
6512Eddie KingFarmington71.16
6612Matthew AtkinsonDetroit Catholic Central72.10
6712Logan PostPortage Northern72.36
6811Zack TruszkowskiTraverse City Central73.18
6912Chase HolwerdaZeeland West74.49
7012Connor MartinLapeer74.79
7111Mason JettAnn Arbor Skyline75.15
729Kyle O’RourkeHighland-Milford75.99
7312Espen WoodCedar Springs76.60
7412Reuben PhilipLivonia Stevenson79.46
7510Sawyer McCarthyForest Hills Central80.84
760Seth ConnerJenison81.84
7711Parker LudwigForest Hills Central81.84
7812Jason WhittonSaline82.74
7912Sebastian CervelliWest Bloomfield83.45
8012Jack MathersMacomb Dakota83.59
8110Isaac TanisEast Kentwood84.95
8210Ben HeldGrand Haven85.16
8312Luke ButlerMonroe85.41
8412Brandon LattaNorthville85.56
8511Luke CampbellBrighton85.77
8611Louis D’SouzaTroy88.37
8710Alex McArthurOxford88.58
8812Jett ReimersTraverse City Central88.79
8912Owen AckermanDexter90.73
9010Adam DickenCanton93.44
9110Jaxson NowikClarkston94.12
9211Anirudh KrishnanPlymouth95.35
9311Andrew FlorosClarkston95.59
9412Gabriel TrevinoSaginaw Heritage96.75
9512Quaid SchimetzHighland-Milford97.54
9611Vincent Peterson SandAnn Arbor Pioneer98.62
9712Tyler GaylordPlymouth100.06
9810Mason LucasJenison100.40
9912Gavin VoetbergPortage Central101.64
10012Andre SoissonKalamazoo Central102.55

It’s tough to evaluate Benne Anderson and Seth Norder, both taking a judicious approach on when to go to the well, but here they both are. The two have been near or at the top of the D1 leaderboard for the season, and we got to see them chase Hunter Jones while locking heads at Portage. Anderson won that matchup by 1.3 seconds, 14:44 to 14:45, I don’t expect any different on Saturday.

I also expect others to try their hand and steal one. Brendan Herger and Thomas Westphal would both hold the sophomore 1600m record if not for the other or Norder. Trent McFarland will kick anyone down. And steady Sean Byrnes has the strength to capture any carnage from what will surely be a hot pace.

GIRLS TEAM

PlaceTeamAvg. ScoreWin %Podium %Top 10 %
1Holland West Ottawa1175995+95+
2Ann Arbor Pioneer125379195+
3Brighton17741095+
4Saline21095+
5Romeo23795+
6Traverse City West27695+
7Ann Arbor Skyline28993
8Okemos30490
9Jenison31666
10Oxford33252
11Walled Lake Northern33843
12Northville34431
13Rochester Hills Stoney Creek3685
14Grand Haven37012
15Traverse City Central3883
16Macomb Dakota3897
17Dexter405
18Highland-Milford434
19Troy440
20Lowell453
21Forest Hills Central467
22Farmington489
23Clarkston531
24Canton535
25Portage Central558
26White Lake Lakeland589
27Ann Arbor Huron671
28Temperance Bedford701

The final race of the day may end up being one of the better team battles. Both Holland West Ottawa and Ann Arbor Pioneer have been locked into the top-2 spots all throughout the fall. Both have been to this stage before, have state champions as senior leaders, have underclassmen improving by the minute. The numbers show West Ottawa’s cushion through their first two being a decent advantage, with Pioneer gradually cutting into that gap.

Saline may be another team to defy the fastest fifth philosophy, having the closest 1-5 spread and a few great candidates at the best fifth runner in the field. That formula works well in large meets but it also worked well in their Region 5 upset of Pioneer. Another team that’s been working it in the past month has been Brighton, who finished right behind Saline at Portage and has been helped by the return of one of their top girls in winning the KLAA and Region 4.

Team1st Girl2nd Girl3rd Girl4th Girl5th Girl6th Girl7th Girl
Holland West Ottawa1223405194122
Ann Arbor Pioneer5111939516679

TeamThru 1Thru 2Thru 3Thru 4Thru 5
Holland West Ottawa132666117
Ann Arbor Pioneer5163574125

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Helen SachsHolland West Ottawa1.14
212Arianne OlsonHolland West Ottawa2.01
312Allison ArnsmanGrandville2.94
411Jayden HarbertsMacomb Dakota4.38
512Emily CooperAnn Arbor Pioneer6.67
612Annika SandmanLowell6.80
712Allison CornellForest Hills Northern8.81
812Madison ClorRomeo9.22
910Lucy CookRochester10.35
1011Clara James-HeerForest Hills Central11.39
1112Maya GuikemaJenison12.59
1210Victoria GarcesH.H. Dow14.41
1311Rachel ForsythAnn Arbor Pioneer16.75
1410Valerie BeeckGrand Haven17.75
1512Taylor PangburnGrand Ledge19.17
1610Cassie GarciaNorthville19.81
1711Selma AndersonGrand Rapids Ottawa Hills20.05
1812Mackenzie WrightHowell20.84
1911Carrigan EberlyBrighton22.19
2010Jordyn KlaasenZeeland West23.62
2111Alexandra BrighamClarkston23.87
2210Molly BaraccoFarmington25.46
2310Mallory BigelowOxford25.52
2410Alena BlumbergDexter26.31
2511Natalie MelloAnn Arbor Pioneer26.94
2612Natalie KesslerAnn Arbor Skyline28.02
279Emmerson ClorRomeo28.63
2811Nikki CarothersBrighton29.18
2912Samantha CostWyandotte Roosevelt30.14
3011Ella ChristensenNorthville34.00
3110Isabelle BeckerBay City Western34.79
3211Shannon GillahanOkemos34.92
3312Megan PostmaHolland West Ottawa35.10
3410Lauren WalkerHolt37.55
3512Emma NetzelHolt38.06
369Trinity VanderWoudeRockford40.63
379Lydia LaMarraBrighton42.79
389Abby VeitTraverse City West43.16
3912Mia RoganSaline43.33
4011Katie WatkinsH.H. Dow44.99
4110Taylor BrodeurOxford45.58
4212Lily SolekRochester Hills Stoney Creek48.14
4312Cara NewmanCanton50.53
4412Ana DunfeeKalamazoo Loy Norrix51.58
4510Violet HrabovskyRomeo51.93
4611Alexis BallTraverse City Central52.27
4712Chloe NixonRochester52.28
4812Grace HarkenriderHighland-Milford53.24
4911Lily SalazarOkemos54.77
5010Annabel O’HaverDexter58.58
5112Jacie RemtemaHighland-Milford58.76
5212Genavieve Kushner-LopezWalled Lake Western60.39
5312Sophia ThomasGrand Blanc60.53
5412Caroline VanceAnn Arbor Skyline61.35
5511Payton SchefflerBrownstown Woodhaven61.57
5611Laney AligSaline64.23
5712Ambria NagelBay City Western64.59
5811Braydee EllingOxford65.58
5911Madelyn GordonWalled Lake Northern66.39
6012Julia KozalForest Hills Northern67.30
6112Hope WebberMattawan67.85
629Ava PorrasHolland West Ottawa68.33
6311Ava KurczewskiWalled Lake Northern70.45
6411Layla KrayemLivonia Stevenson70.46
6512Maggie OttoJenison70.73
6612Amanda SoldanRochester Adams72.95
6712Bella HofferZeeland West73.21
6811Alisia OlteanuWalled Lake Western74.82
6911Addison JohnsonUtica75.07
7010Jane OlneyHolland West Ottawa76.39
7111Sylvia Sanok DufalloAnn Arbor Pioneer76.45
729Olivia StacyPortage Northern77.83
739Bailey WenzlickTraverse City West81.04
7410Abby RothSaline82.38
7512Anjali KidambiNovi83.64
7610Sienna SnyderSaline83.86
779Ellery HornessMuskegon Mona Shores84.23
7812Rebekah AsselinTemperance Bedford84.80
7912Lauren WrozaRochester85.21
8011Lydia BowmanAnn Arbor Pioneer85.87
8111Allison MayerAnn Arbor Skyline88.38
8211Nicole MaysOkemos89.78
8312Leah WhiteAnn Arbor Skyline89.95
8410Corynn GadySaline90.07
8512Larissa McGrathCedar Springs91.39
8611Kylee KingOak Park91.75
879Kayla WardSouth Lyon92.07
8810Lillian DeskinsGrosse Pointe North92.48
8912Natalia QuigleyCaledonia92.63
909Quincy BehmAnn Arbor Pioneer93.19
9112Amyla EberhartSouth Lyon East95.02
9210Grace RothSaline95.51
9312Taylor RegesterWalled Lake Northern96.29
9410Grace GrupidoFraser97.31
9510Sydney LawByron Center98.21
9611Emma DickinsAlpena98.67
9712Ava WalshWhite Lake Lakeland99.34
9811Mariah BelmontMacomb Dakota99.56
9910Annalise AlkemaKalamazoo Central99.64
10011Madelyn Vande BunteJenison100.37

It’s just some OK Red/Region 1 domination through the first three spots. I love the differing paths to get here. Arianne Olson, the grizzled vet coming off her first individual title in the spring. Helen Sachs, observing on the fly last year, taking a giant leap forward early in the season. Allie Arnsman, on the comeback trail, making up for a lost track season.

I hope you enjoyed reading all these! Take a look at Jacob Tanner’s previews, take a look at the coaches polls. Most importantly, take a look within and race with the confidence and swagger that you’ve used to get here. I believe in you, we all believe in you, and the whole state is ready to see what you’ve got tomorrow.

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