2022 Division 1 State Finals Preview

As I’ve been doing with Macomb County, Upper Peninsula Finals, and Regionals, these are done via simulations. To make a short story long, an athlete’s weighted average (more recent meets weighed heavier) and the variance within those ratings are thrown into a blender, and from there, I’m able to simulate various “races”. With the meets above, I performed 100 simulations, I kicked it up a notch with 1000 this time around. See TullyRunners for a more mathy description of how these work.

You may notice that these previews are less intensive on the writing, this is intentional for my sanity. I feel that I (and Jacob Tanner) have done an excellent job of setting the stage throughout the year, if you’ve followed our work, you know what’s about to take place.

These are all based on what an athlete has run this year, no personal opinions involved. That’s not to say I don’t have personal opinions, it’s just that these are all number-driven. Of course, races aren’t run on a computer, that’s the beauty of sport, competition, and life. I hope you’re able to embrace the big and small moments this weekend. These are the memories that will stick with you forever. Let’s make some good ones.

BOYS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Northville	121	95+	95+	95+
2	Traverse City Central	201		45	95+
3	Plymouth	207		27	95+
4	Brighton	216		23	95+
5	Portage Central	253			95+
6	Ann Arbor Skyline	260			95+
7	Clarkston	265			94
8	Saline	296			87
9	Grand Haven	322			49
10	Romeo	322			55
11	Forest Hills Central	333			39
12	Kalamazoo Central	346			29
13	Troy	352			21
14	Detroit Catholic Central	354			22
15	Zeeland West	400
16	Port Huron Northern	405
17	Jenison	410
18	Livonia Churchill	415
19	Utica	417
20	Highland-Milford	422
21	White Lake Lakeland	429
22	Ann Arbor Pioneer	435
23	Saginaw Heritage	473
24	Dexter	474
25	Fraser	500
26	Bay City Western	610
27	Monroe	654

The Northville boys have done a pretty satisfactory job of not taking the cheese, holding onto their #1 ranking all year. They were victors in the KLAA and on their fantastic voyages to the state’s larger meets (Spartan and Portage), they came out with trophies, both wins by a considerable margin.

It’s a very intriguing battle for 2^nd, three teams by the numbers plus a few more that I think could slide in there as well. Saline defeated many of these teams at Portage. At KLAA, Plymouth and Brighton were as close to Northville as you’ll find. Ann Arbor Skyline had their day at Jackson, Traverse City Central had their day at Bluejay, and Clarkston won the OAA Red (and likely would’ve won Oakland County at full strength). In a congested field with many 3^rd-7^th runners capable of running 16:30-17:15, who can find themselves on the right end of packs will find success getting to the podium.

Team	1st Boy	2nd Boy	3rd Boy	4th Boy	5th Boy	6th Boy	7th Boy
Traverse City Central	9	16	38	56	83	131	146
Plymouth	4	20	48	62	73	85	117
Brighton	11	18	48	63	76	98	131
Portage Central	22	33	48	65	86	120	147
Ann Arbor Skyline	9	22	31	49	149	166	178
Clarkston	24	33	48	64	95	140	158
Saline	13	20	49	97	116	126	147

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Traverse City Central	9	24	62	118	201
Plymouth	4	24	72	134	207
Brighton	11	29	77	140	216
Portage Central	22	54	102	167	253
Ann Arbor Skyline	9	32	62	111	260
Clarkston	24	57	106	170	265
Saline	13	33	82	180	296

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Benne Anderson	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	1.42
2	11	Seth Norder	Grand Haven	1.63
3	11	Brendan Herger	Northville	3.60
4	11	Thomas Westphal	Anchor Bay	4.88
5	12	Trent McFarland	Utica	5.13
6	12	Sean Byrnes	Plymouth	6.09
7	12	Jonah Hochstetler	Traverse City West	8.40
8	11	Jasper Cane	Kalamazoo Central	8.81
9	12	Joe Muha	Traverse City Central	14.94
10	12	Nicolas Fry	Ann Arbor Skyline	15.16
11	12	Ethan Pruzinsky	Auburn Hills Avondale	17.32
12	12	Jared Platt	White Lake Lakeland	18.41
13	11	Vishvaa Ravishankar	Troy	18.85
14	11	Tyler Langley	Brighton	19.49
15	11	Aiden Moore	Battle Creek Lakeview	20.23
16	11	Ty Parker	Walled Lake Northern	21.11
17	11	Sebastian Ramirez	Royal Oak	21.12
18	11	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo	21.71
19	12	Samuel Jackson	Saline	22.10
20	12	Micah Bauer	Traverse City Central	24.46
21	12	Jordan Domany	Caledonia	24.91
22	12	Brady Heron	Northville	25.76
23	11	Brandon Anderson	Dexter	25.97
24	12	Logan Detweiler	Grosse Pointe South	26.22
25	12	Brady Matuszewski	Brighton	27.97
26	12	Caleb Branch	Muskegon Mona Shores	28.20
27	12	Ethan Krampe	Forest Hills Central	28.30
28	11	Connor Clor	Romeo	29.21
29	11	Truman Johnson	Saline	31.19
30	12	Alex Bobak	Plymouth	32.01
31	10	Taye (Sintayehu) Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	35.34
32	11	Liam Walters	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	38.37
33	11	Luke Suliman	Ann Arbor Skyline	38.47
34	12	Colin Graham	Rockford	39.24
35	11	Kenny Lewis	Saginaw Heritage	40.31
36	10	Ethan Powell	Northville	40.41
37	12	Benjamin Smith	Hartland	40.68
38	11	Noah Selvaraj	Bay City Western	41.22
39	12	Griffin Conway	Novi	41.46
40	10	Logan Mullan	Detroit U-D Jesuit	41.97
41	11	Iain Forrest	Davison	44.11
42	12	Matthew Short	Berkley	46.16
43	11	Bryce Nowik	Clarkston	46.34
44	12	Owen Lawrence	East Kentwood	47.46
45	12	Jaben Bakker	Hudsonville	48.34
46	12	Brock Malaikal	Northville	49.48
47	12	Nathan Riddering	Novi	50.04
48	12	Glen Davis	Port Huron Northern	50.68
49	12	Justin Roose	Fraser	51.21
50	12	Henry Poploskie	Clarkston	52.22
51	12	Elliot Carey	Salem	55.27
52	12	Christopher Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	55.65
53	12	Ben Hunter	Portage Central	57.13
54	12	Samuel Roberts	Dearborn	58.40
55	11	Logan Begeman	Portage Central	59.03
56	11	Pierce Grzymkowski	White Lake Lakeland	59.48
57	12	Seth Pianga	Livonia Churchill	59.52
58	12	Joshua Gormley	Portage Central	62.84
59	11	Tyler Donovan	Fraser	66.56
60	12	Caleb Bost	Battle Creek Lakeview	66.72
61	11	Jaxon Allen	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	69.84
62	11	Willem DeGood	Traverse City West	70.09
63	12	Nathan Katic	Fenton	70.20
64	11	Dylan Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	70.96
65	12	Eddie King	Farmington	71.16
66	12	Matthew Atkinson	Detroit Catholic Central	72.10
67	12	Logan Post	Portage Northern	72.36
68	11	Zack Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	73.18
69	12	Chase Holwerda	Zeeland West	74.49
70	12	Connor Martin	Lapeer	74.79
71	11	Mason Jett	Ann Arbor Skyline	75.15
72	9	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	75.99
73	12	Espen Wood	Cedar Springs	76.60
74	12	Reuben Philip	Livonia Stevenson	79.46
75	10	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	80.84
76	0	Seth Conner	Jenison	81.84
77	11	Parker Ludwig	Forest Hills Central	81.84
78	12	Jason Whitton	Saline	82.74
79	12	Sebastian Cervelli	West Bloomfield	83.45
80	12	Jack Mathers	Macomb Dakota	83.59
81	10	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	84.95
82	10	Ben Held	Grand Haven	85.16
83	12	Luke Butler	Monroe	85.41
84	12	Brandon Latta	Northville	85.56
85	11	Luke Campbell	Brighton	85.77
86	11	Louis D’Souza	Troy	88.37
87	10	Alex McArthur	Oxford	88.58
88	12	Jett Reimers	Traverse City Central	88.79
89	12	Owen Ackerman	Dexter	90.73
90	10	Adam Dicken	Canton	93.44
91	10	Jaxson Nowik	Clarkston	94.12
92	11	Anirudh Krishnan	Plymouth	95.35
93	11	Andrew Floros	Clarkston	95.59
94	12	Gabriel Trevino	Saginaw Heritage	96.75
95	12	Quaid Schimetz	Highland-Milford	97.54
96	11	Vincent Peterson Sand	Ann Arbor Pioneer	98.62
97	12	Tyler Gaylord	Plymouth	100.06
98	10	Mason Lucas	Jenison	100.40
99	12	Gavin Voetberg	Portage Central	101.64
100	12	Andre Soisson	Kalamazoo Central	102.55

It’s tough to evaluate Benne Anderson and Seth Norder, both taking a judicious approach on when to go to the well, but here they both are. The two have been near or at the top of the D1 leaderboard for the season, and we got to see them chase Hunter Jones while locking heads at Portage. Anderson won that matchup by 1.3 seconds, 14:44 to 14:45, I don’t expect any different on Saturday.

I also expect others to try their hand and steal one. Brendan Herger and Thomas Westphal would both hold the sophomore 1600m record if not for the other or Norder. Trent McFarland will kick anyone down. And steady Sean Byrnes has the strength to capture any carnage from what will surely be a hot pace.

GIRLS TEAM

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Podium %	Top 10 %
1	Holland West Ottawa	117	59	95+	95+
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	125	37	91	95+
3	Brighton	177	4	10	95+
4	Saline	210			95+
5	Romeo	237			95+
6	Traverse City West	276			95+
7	Ann Arbor Skyline	289			93
8	Okemos	304			90
9	Jenison	316			66
10	Oxford	332			52
11	Walled Lake Northern	338			43
12	Northville	344			31
13	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	368			5
14	Grand Haven	370			12
15	Traverse City Central	388			3
16	Macomb Dakota	389			7
17	Dexter	405
18	Highland-Milford	434
19	Troy	440
20	Lowell	453
21	Forest Hills Central	467
22	Farmington	489
23	Clarkston	531
24	Canton	535
25	Portage Central	558
26	White Lake Lakeland	589
27	Ann Arbor Huron	671
28	Temperance Bedford	701

The final race of the day may end up being one of the better team battles. Both Holland West Ottawa and Ann Arbor Pioneer have been locked into the top-2 spots all throughout the fall. Both have been to this stage before, have state champions as senior leaders, have underclassmen improving by the minute. The numbers show West Ottawa’s cushion through their first two being a decent advantage, with Pioneer gradually cutting into that gap.

Saline may be another team to defy the fastest fifth philosophy, having the closest 1-5 spread and a few great candidates at the best fifth runner in the field. That formula works well in large meets but it also worked well in their Region 5 upset of Pioneer. Another team that’s been working it in the past month has been Brighton, who finished right behind Saline at Portage and has been helped by the return of one of their top girls in winning the KLAA and Region 4.

Team	1st Girl	2nd Girl	3rd Girl	4th Girl	5th Girl	6th Girl	7th Girl
Holland West Ottawa	1	2	23	40	51	94	122
Ann Arbor Pioneer	5	11	19	39	51	66	79

Team	Thru 1	Thru 2	Thru 3	Thru 4	Thru 5
Holland West Ottawa	1	3	26	66	117
Ann Arbor Pioneer	5	16	35	74	125

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	1.14
2	12	Arianne Olson	Holland West Ottawa	2.01
3	12	Allison Arnsman	Grandville	2.94
4	11	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota	4.38
5	12	Emily Cooper	Ann Arbor Pioneer	6.67
6	12	Annika Sandman	Lowell	6.80
7	12	Allison Cornell	Forest Hills Northern	8.81
8	12	Madison Clor	Romeo	9.22
9	10	Lucy Cook	Rochester	10.35
10	11	Clara James-Heer	Forest Hills Central	11.39
11	12	Maya Guikema	Jenison	12.59
12	10	Victoria Garces	H.H. Dow	14.41
13	11	Rachel Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer	16.75
14	10	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	17.75
15	12	Taylor Pangburn	Grand Ledge	19.17
16	10	Cassie Garcia	Northville	19.81
17	11	Selma Anderson	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	20.05
18	12	Mackenzie Wright	Howell	20.84
19	11	Carrigan Eberly	Brighton	22.19
20	10	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	23.62
21	11	Alexandra Brigham	Clarkston	23.87
22	10	Molly Baracco	Farmington	25.46
23	10	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	25.52
24	10	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	26.31
25	11	Natalie Mello	Ann Arbor Pioneer	26.94
26	12	Natalie Kessler	Ann Arbor Skyline	28.02
27	9	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	28.63
28	11	Nikki Carothers	Brighton	29.18
29	12	Samantha Cost	Wyandotte Roosevelt	30.14
30	11	Ella Christensen	Northville	34.00
31	10	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	34.79
32	11	Shannon Gillahan	Okemos	34.92
33	12	Megan Postma	Holland West Ottawa	35.10
34	10	Lauren Walker	Holt	37.55
35	12	Emma Netzel	Holt	38.06
36	9	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	40.63
37	9	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	42.79
38	9	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	43.16
39	12	Mia Rogan	Saline	43.33
40	11	Katie Watkins	H.H. Dow	44.99
41	10	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	45.58
42	12	Lily Solek	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	48.14
43	12	Cara Newman	Canton	50.53
44	12	Ana Dunfee	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	51.58
45	10	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	51.93
46	11	Alexis Ball	Traverse City Central	52.27
47	12	Chloe Nixon	Rochester	52.28
48	12	Grace Harkenrider	Highland-Milford	53.24
49	11	Lily Salazar	Okemos	54.77
50	10	Annabel O’Haver	Dexter	58.58
51	12	Jacie Remtema	Highland-Milford	58.76
52	12	Genavieve Kushner-Lopez	Walled Lake Western	60.39
53	12	Sophia Thomas	Grand Blanc	60.53
54	12	Caroline Vance	Ann Arbor Skyline	61.35
55	11	Payton Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	61.57
56	11	Laney Alig	Saline	64.23
57	12	Ambria Nagel	Bay City Western	64.59
58	11	Braydee Elling	Oxford	65.58
59	11	Madelyn Gordon	Walled Lake Northern	66.39
60	12	Julia Kozal	Forest Hills Northern	67.30
61	12	Hope Webber	Mattawan	67.85
62	9	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	68.33
63	11	Ava Kurczewski	Walled Lake Northern	70.45
64	11	Layla Krayem	Livonia Stevenson	70.46
65	12	Maggie Otto	Jenison	70.73
66	12	Amanda Soldan	Rochester Adams	72.95
67	12	Bella Hoffer	Zeeland West	73.21
68	11	Alisia Olteanu	Walled Lake Western	74.82
69	11	Addison Johnson	Utica	75.07
70	10	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	76.39
71	11	Sylvia Sanok Dufallo	Ann Arbor Pioneer	76.45
72	9	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	77.83
73	9	Bailey Wenzlick	Traverse City West	81.04
74	10	Abby Roth	Saline	82.38
75	12	Anjali Kidambi	Novi	83.64
76	10	Sienna Snyder	Saline	83.86
77	9	Ellery Horness	Muskegon Mona Shores	84.23
78	12	Rebekah Asselin	Temperance Bedford	84.80
79	12	Lauren Wroza	Rochester	85.21
80	11	Lydia Bowman	Ann Arbor Pioneer	85.87
81	11	Allison Mayer	Ann Arbor Skyline	88.38
82	11	Nicole Mays	Okemos	89.78
83	12	Leah White	Ann Arbor Skyline	89.95
84	10	Corynn Gady	Saline	90.07
85	12	Larissa McGrath	Cedar Springs	91.39
86	11	Kylee King	Oak Park	91.75
87	9	Kayla Ward	South Lyon	92.07
88	10	Lillian Deskins	Grosse Pointe North	92.48
89	12	Natalia Quigley	Caledonia	92.63
90	9	Quincy Behm	Ann Arbor Pioneer	93.19
91	12	Amyla Eberhart	South Lyon East	95.02
92	10	Grace Roth	Saline	95.51
93	12	Taylor Regester	Walled Lake Northern	96.29
94	10	Grace Grupido	Fraser	97.31
95	10	Sydney Law	Byron Center	98.21
96	11	Emma Dickins	Alpena	98.67
97	12	Ava Walsh	White Lake Lakeland	99.34
98	11	Mariah Belmont	Macomb Dakota	99.56
99	10	Annalise Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	99.64
100	11	Madelyn Vande Bunte	Jenison	100.37

It’s just some OK Red/Region 1 domination through the first three spots. I love the differing paths to get here. Arianne Olson, the grizzled vet coming off her first individual title in the spring. Helen Sachs, observing on the fly last year, taking a giant leap forward early in the season. Allie Arnsman, on the comeback trail, making up for a lost track season.

I hope you enjoyed reading all these! Take a look at Jacob Tanner’s previews, take a look at the coaches polls. Most importantly, take a look within and race with the confidence and swagger that you’ve used to get here. I believe in you, we all believe in you, and the whole state is ready to see what you’ve got tomorrow.