State Week has arrived. Just as previous weeks and the Regional Projections, you get a ton of math and a little preview. Simulations and odds and stats and projections are the vehicle for talking about the best sport in the world, which will be on display Saturday at MIS.
An explanation from previous years that still holds true:
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev. 15:30 210 15:45 205 16:00 200 16:15 195 16:30 190 200 7.91 MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev. 16:09 197 16:12 196 16:15 195 16:18 194 16:21 193 195 1.58 Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating 1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6 2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1 3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2 4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5 5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7 6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1 7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9 8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9 9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0 10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6 11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5 12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4 13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6 14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1 15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6 16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2 17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2 18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6 19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1 20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9 I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
The regional projections were pretty solid this year. Adding up all the odds from the projected top-3 teams, you’d get 199 correct qualifiers. There were 197, essentially coming within a percentage point.
A change I made last year to shore up the projections was to filter out less important meets. These conference and weekday meets are great for building the database and showing the development of athletes who may not even run at the regional level, but they often are home to a runner’s slower efforts. All the important weekend meets are included. This same methodology is present here in 2026. One thing I noticed from looking back at ’25 is that early season meets weren’t adjusted highly enough. That has changed for 2026, although I’m not sure it’ll be a huge factor as those meets aren’t weighted that heavily at this point in the season.
The entries reflect those that are listed on athletic.net.
1000 simulations were run, which allows for various stats and odds to be calculated. I have a bunch listed, more than ever before:
Proj. Place = sorting from the lowest average score to the highest
Avg. Score = the average team score across all simulations
Win% = odds that a team will win
Podium % = odds that a team will receive a trophy
Top-10% = odds that a team will place in the top-10
95% Range = 95% of the outcomes will fall in this range, so for each division there should be around one outlier. I’d call this a fully confident chance.
65% Range = 65% of the outcomes will fall in this range, so for each division there should be around ten outliers. I’d call this a solid bet.
Podium Order % = the odds that the top-2 will fall in exactly that order
Top-5 Order % = the odds that the top-5 will fall exactly in that order
I also have an individual’s odds of winning and receiving All-State, though I’ll decline to post those until afterward.
As always, enjoy the writings. May they be a boost of confidence or a spur of motivation. Either way, they’re done out of love for the great competitors in Michigan. I’ll see you on Saturday.
BOYS TEAM
Last fall, with a roster consisting of three freshmen, a sophomore, a junior, and two seniors, Holland Christian was able to place 6th in D2. Two of those three freshmen occupied to the top-two spots in their state standings. The third position came from the sophomore. Many returners coming from places of consequence, the Maroons entered the season as the D2 favorites.
They’ve not relented, opening up with a win at Portage Central’s Early Bird, obtaining victories over the best D2 has to offer at Bulldog and Portage, then winning championships in the OK Black and in Region 11. The formula has consisted of two low-sticks, and a 3-4-5 combo better than anyone else in the division.
As fiery as the Maroons entered the season, there’s still been a bevy of other title candidates that have stepped forward.
Pinckney may not have seemed likely through the midpoint of the season, but when the Pirates trekked west to Portage, they affirmed they’re an elite team. The Livingston County crew runs on tough courses early before proving they can tap the gas late. At Portage, the Pinckney boys were able to see Cole McCraw compete with the upper echelon, then their depth holding serve with many in the field.
A team on the ascent over the course of the season over the season has been Parma Western. The Panthers have had their best experiences of late, a great example coming from Friday’s regional at DeWitt. Three PW boys were able to cross the line in the top-5, six of ‘em in the top-20. A combination of low scorers and depth that is essential for state level success.
The two trophy winners from 2025 are still present – Flint Powers Catholic and East Grand Rapids. Each has had to rebuild a bit, having to replace 3-4 athletes from their scoring lineup. However, they’ve done so quickly, winning championships in Greater Flint and the OK White, respectively.
And a true darkhorse resides in the XC heartland, winners of Region 15, Shepherd. The Bluejays enter Saturday with oodles of momentum, fresh off a regional performance that featured six PR’s. A replication of that effort surely puts the Bluejays in the podium conversation.
| Proj. Place | Team | Proj. Score | Win % | Podium % | Top-10 % |
| 1 | Holland Christian | 127 | 78 | 93 | 95+ |
| 2 | Pinckney | 164 | 12 | 60 | 95+ |
| 3 | East Grand Rapids | 192 | 4 | 20 | 95+ |
| 4 | Flint Powers Catholic | 211 | 7 | 95+ | |
| 5 | Parma Western | 212 | 2 | 9 | 95+ |
| 6 | Petoskey | 241 | 95+ | ||
| 7 | Shepherd | 260 | 3 | 9 | 70 |
| 8 | Alma | 265 | 81 | ||
| 9 | Holly | 269 | 83 | ||
| 10 | Grand Rapids Christian | 294 | 55 | ||
| 11 | Vicksburg | 305 | 40 | ||
| 12 | Forest Hills Eastern | 332 | 21 | ||
| 13 | Adrian | 336 | 13 | ||
| 14 | St. Joseph | 344 | 22 | ||
| 15 | Otsego | 363 | 6 | ||
| 16 | Owosso | 378 | 9 | ||
| 17 | Haslett | 381 | 5 | ||
| 18 | Detroit Country Day | 386 | |||
| 19 | Chelsea | 412 | |||
| 20 | Dearborn Divine Child | 454 | |||
| 21 | Spring Lake | 464 | |||
| 22 | Cedar Springs | 482 | |||
| 23 | Fremont | 523 | |||
| 24 | Holland | 555 | |||
| 25 | Marysville | 666 | |||
| 26 | Monroe Jefferson | 704 | |||
| 27 | Carleton Airport | 710 | |||
| 28 | Yale | 712 |
| Proj. Place | Team | 95% Range | 65% Range |
| 1 | Holland Christian | 1 to 3 | 1 to 2 |
| 2 | Pinckney | 1 to 5 | 2 to 3 |
| 3 | East Grand Rapids | 1 to 7 | 2 to 5 |
| 4 | Flint Powers Catholic | 2 to 9 | 3 to 7 |
| 5 | Parma Western | 2 to 10 | 3 to 7 |
| 6 | Petoskey | 3 to 11 | 5 to 8 |
| 7 | Shepherd | 1 to 17 | 4 to 13 |
| 8 | Alma | 4 to 13 | 6 to 11 |
| 9 | Holly | 5 to 13 | 7 to 10 |
| 10 | Grand Rapids Christian | 5 to 14 | 8 to 12 |
| 11 | Vicksburg | 6 to 16 | 9 to 13 |
| 12 | Forest Hills Eastern | 7 to 18 | 10 to 16 |
| 13 | Adrian | 8 to 18 | 11 to 15 |
| 14 | St. Joseph | 5 to 20 | 9 to 17 |
| 15 | Otsego | 10 to 20 | 12 to 17 |
| 16 | Owosso | 8 to 22 | 12 to 19 |
| 17 | Haslett | 10 to 21 | 13 to 19 |
| 18 | Detroit Country Day | 11 to 21 | 14 to 19 |
| 19 | Chelsea | 14 to 21 | 16 to 20 |
| 20 | Dearborn Divine Child | 16 to 23 | 19 to 22 |
| 21 | Spring Lake | 18 to 23 | 20 to 22 |
| 22 | Cedar Springs | 15 to 24 | 19 to 23 |
| 23 | Fremont | 20 to 24 | 22 to 24 |
| 24 | Holland | 21 to 24 | 23 to 24 |
| 25 | Marysville | 25 to 28 | 25 to 26 |
| 26 | Monroe Jefferson | 25 to 28 | 26 to 28 |
| 27 | Carleton Airport | 25 to 28 | 26 to 28 |
| 28 | Yale | 25 to 28 | 26 to 28 |
A majority of the winning scenarios see Holland Christian fulfilling the promise of that youth and capturing the title. The paths take on different forms when comparing to the fellow competitors. In some instances, it’s the strength up front driving an advantage. Compared to top-heavy contenders, the Maroon depth reigns supreme. The model likes this combination, giving HC a high floor.
Of course, they’re not the outright, sure as stone favorites. There are scenarios where other teams could come through, such as:
Race #18, where East Grand Rapids threw in a performance similar to Bluejay (where the Pioneers placed 2nd amongst a field of D1’s best), placing five in front of HC’s fourth.
Race #28 was reminiscent of what Pinckney was able to accomplish at Holly. On the Springfield Oaks hills, the tough Pirates were able to place all scorers in the top-13, affirmatively placing themselves as a title contender.
A bit of a longshot, but there also lie scenarios where Shepherd and Parma Western continue their recent uptick and shock the field.
| Podium Order | Podium Order % |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Pinckney | 44.9 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. East Grand Rapids | 14.5 |
| 1. Pinckney, 2. Holland Christian | 9.8 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Parma Western | 7 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Shepherd | 5 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Flint Powers Catholic | 5 |
| Top-5 Order | Top-5 Order % |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Pinckney, 3. East Grand Rapids, 4. Parma Western, 5. Flint Powers Catholic | 3.5 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Pinckney, 3. East Grand Rapids, 4. Flint Powers Catholic, 5. Parma Western | 2.3 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Pinckney, 3. East Grand Rapids, 4. Flint Powers Catholic, 5. Petoskey | 2.1 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Pinckney, 3. Flint Powers Catholic, 4. East Grand Rapids, 5. Parma Western | 2 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Pinckney, 3. Parma Western, 4. East Grand Rapids, 5. Flint Powers Catholic | 1.8 |
GIRLS TEAM
All last fall, Holland Christian laying in the cut, commanding a bit of attention, but still off the radar. Title contenders, surely not favorites, but perhaps a year away. Until when Mile 2 hit at the State Finals. The Maroons were conservative early and moved up into first position on the east side of the course. Back on the infield, Holland Christian was able to fend off fellow west side Otsego, securing a state championship.
Six of their seven contributors return and the Maroons have embraced their title defense as well as one would imagine. They’ve introduced impactful freshmen into the fray. Experienced girls have seen improvement, seniors Eliana Stob and Ellery Lampen racing to PR’s earlier in the fall. With those in mind, the results have followed. Wins have been plenty, especially at important meets such as Portage, Otsego, Region 11, and the OK Black.
The roles have reversed from last year’s narrative, with Otsego playing the role as underdog. The Bulldogs are almost always a part of the D2 conversation, either as favorite, a team to watch, or somewhere between. The final month of the season has shown why Otsego is always at the forefront of the divisional scene. With many distractions, it ain’t always easy to run your best at your home invite, though the Bulldogs were able to through their close pack, scorers ranging from 18:45 to 19:15. When you’ve won countless Wolverine Conference titles, a ho-hum league championship might be an oversight, but not to these girls who placed all their varsity runners in the top-10.
Experienced at the head, young and ferocious in their efforts, Otsego will make it a race.
| Proj. Place | Team | Proj. Score | Win % | Podium % | Top-10 % |
| 1 | Holland Christian | 99 | 92 | 95+ | 95+ |
| 2 | Otsego | 136 | 8 | 92 | 95+ |
| 3 | Grand Rapids Christian | 192 | 6 | 95+ | |
| 4 | Linden | 201 | 2 | 95+ | |
| 5 | Grand Rapids South Christian | 222 | 95+ | ||
| 6 | DeWitt | 251 | 95+ | ||
| 7 | East Grand Rapids | 259 | 95+ | ||
| 8 | Holland | 281 | 95+ | ||
| 9 | Goodrich | 319 | 72 | ||
| 10 | Adrian | 338 | 53 | ||
| 11 | Spring Lake | 364 | 29 | ||
| 12 | Plainwell | 374 | 13 | ||
| 13 | Williamston | 380 | 13 | ||
| 14 | Allendale | 384 | 9 | ||
| 15 | Pinckney | 397 | 5 | ||
| 16 | Macomb Lutheran North | 425 | 4 | ||
| 17 | Bloomfield Hills Marian | 434 | |||
| 18 | Remus Chippewa Hills | 442 | |||
| 19 | Clare | 463 | |||
| 20 | Sturgis | 470 | |||
| 21 | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 480 | |||
| 22 | Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood | 499 | |||
| 23 | Farmington Hills Mercy | 504 | |||
| 24 | Shepherd | 507 | |||
| 25 | New Boston Huron | 518 | |||
| 26 | Frankenmuth | 592 | |||
| 27 | Tecumseh | 686 |
| Proj. Place | Team | 95% Range | 65% Range |
| 1 | Holland Christian | 1 to 2 | 1 to 1 |
| 2 | Otsego | 1 to 3 | 2 to 2 |
| 3 | Grand Rapids Christian | 2 to 6 | 3 to 5 |
| 4 | Linden | 3 to 6 | 3 to 5 |
| 5 | Grand Rapids South Christian | 3 to 7 | 4 to 6 |
| 6 | DeWitt | 4 to 9 | 5 to 7 |
| 7 | East Grand Rapids | 4 to 9 | 6 to 8 |
| 8 | Holland | 5 to 10 | 7 to 9 |
| 9 | Goodrich | 6 to 14 | 8 to 11 |
| 10 | Adrian | 8 to 14 | 9 to 12 |
| 11 | Spring Lake | 7 to 19 | 10 to 15 |
| 12 | Plainwell | 9 to 18 | 11 to 15 |
| 13 | Williamston | 9 to 18 | 11 to 16 |
| 14 | Allendale | 10 to 19 | 11 to 16 |
| 15 | Pinckney | 10 to 20 | 12 to 17 |
| 16 | Macomb Lutheran North | 10 to 23 | 14 to 20 |
| 17 | Bloomfield Hills Marian | 12 to 22 | 15 to 20 |
| 18 | Remus Chippewa Hills | 12 to 23 | 16 to 21 |
| 19 | Clare | 14 to 24 | 17 to 22 |
| 20 | Sturgis | 11 to 25 | 16 to 24 |
| 21 | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 14 to 26 | 17 to 24 |
| 22 | Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood | 15 to 26 | 19 to 25 |
| 23 | Farmington Hills Mercy | 17 to 25 | 20 to 24 |
| 24 | Shepherd | 17 to 25 | 20 to 24 |
| 25 | New Boston Huron | 16 to 26 | 20 to 25 |
| 26 | Frankenmuth | 23 to 26 | 25 to 26 |
| 27 | Tecumseh | 26 to 27 | 27 to 27 |
Many of the projections in the model show a similar pattern. The podium and title-contending teams are all pack-based. Point totals depend on where these packs lie. And if one team can spring an advantage and place a girl ahead of that group, that can give a huge boon to the prospects of a win.
Holland Christian has that ability with their low-stick, individual contender. Peering at random race in the simulations, such as #711, shows a 15-point gap between the Maroons’ 1st girl and the clusters of HC/Otsego/GRC girls.
When that gap isn’t present, the odds rise from the underdogs. And the beauty of XC is the occasional randomness. This might not have anything to do with the fortunes of Otsego or Grand Rapids Christian, it could be a case where girls in that All-State conversation collectively have an off day. One of those scenarios came in the first race of the simulation, where four Bulldogs placed themselves in medal contention, the sum of their movement driving a low point total that others couldn’t overcome.
Grand Rapids Christian might not have enough firepower to move into first, but they have enough positive momentum that their recent uptick could lead to a podium opportunity. Championship opportunities in Region 12 and in the OK White have been met with wins, runners such as Alena Sportel improving rapidly. If the progression continues into Saturday, the Eagles can spoil the podium party.
| Podium Order | Podium Order % |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Otsego | 84 |
| 1. Otsego, 2. Holland Christian | 8 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Grand Rapids Christian | 5.5 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Linden | 1.9 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Grand Rapids South Christian | 0.5 |
| Top-5 Order | Top-5 Order % |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Otsego, 3. Grand Rapids Christian, 4. Linden, 5. Grand Rapids South Christian | 21.9 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Otsego, 3. Linden, 4. Grand Rapids Christian, 5. Grand Rapids South Christian | 10.2 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Otsego, 3. Grand Rapids Christian, 4. Grand Rapids South Christian, 5. Linden | 8.7 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Otsego, 3. Grand Rapids Christian, 4. Linden, 5. DeWitt | 6.7 |
| 1. Holland Christian, 2. Otsego, 3. Linden, 4. Grand Rapids South Christian, 5. Grand Rapids Christian | 4.6 |
BOYS INDIVIDUAL
It’s been a historic fall for Bobby Jazwinski. The times have been eye-popping and the margins massive. Eight sub-15’s have dotted his resume. And they’re just ordinary 14:57’s, they often extend into the mid-14’s. A mere mortal may take the first race of their season as a rustbuster, Jazwinski decided to obliterate the Benzie course record, running 14:23. People have opinions on Benzie’s course, but you cannot argue your way out of Jazwinski’s 14:23 at Portage. Dathan Ritzenhein, who has a case for being the greatest national XC runner of all-time, covered that course in 14:41 (not the course record, which was before held by Hunter Jones).
Much talk has been had upon whether Ritzenhein’s vaunted 14:11 state record can be challenged.
What I want to make clear is if that record broken, challenged, unchallenged, the end result has still been the same, this is an all-time season for Jazwinski.
Though I’d be remiss to not preview what it might take. First, the course conditions. The course has likely gotten easier from the 2000’s to now. For years, the grass on the home stretch would swallow up runners. The turf was that perfect, lush, thick grass that needed to look pristine when viewed by millions during NASCAR events. In the past few years, that’s changed to a surface that’s mowed to the nubs and doesn’t sap the energy from one’s final strides. The other factor is wind. The past two years have seemingly had no winds. With the open expanses of Brooklyn, a stiff wind would often rip into a runner’s face entering the infield or toward the finish. That has been absent in recent memory.
Peering at the conditions, we’re looking at a 11mph NW wind, pristine temperatures, and a very low chance of rain. With perfect conditions in the past two years, the course has rated around a +20-25. I would fathom a guess that it’ll be a little slower, perhaps in the +10-15 range. A 14:10 with a +15 course adjustment comes out to 14:25, or 231.7 in the speed ratings. +10 would then be a 233.3
I would consider Portage to be the truest indicator of Jazwinski’s fitness. It’s a huge meet of much consequence. From the math perspective, the adjustment has a higher chance of being accurate (a huge sample where everyone’s bringing their best effort). Mentally, I can’t see many athletes being unmotivated. His rating at Portage was a 230.2, definitely within range of what’s needed. A tad slower, but within seconds of what’s necessary.
We’ve produced national champions. Our alums have gone onto set American records and earn Olympic medals. But no one has touched Ritz. This is the best opportunity in the 26 years since his historic day.
Perhaps the best attribute of a XC meet is the vibe of the crowd and fellow competitors. No one is rooting for the QB to throw an interception or the basketball player to miss a clutch free throw. We come out to witness greatness, to appreciate runners laying it on the line. Let’s all bring that positivity to MIS on Saturday.
| Proj. Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Robert Jazwinski III | Whitehall | 1.0 |
| 2 | 11 | Lennox Naswell | Flint Powers Catholic | 3.8 |
| 3 | 11 | Micah Becker | East Grand Rapids | 7.7 |
| 4 | 12 | Ezekiel Baltierra | Alma | 9.3 |
| 5 | 12 | Mitchell Dunlap | Grand Rapids Catholic Central | 10.3 |
| 6 | 12 | Broden Ladd | Holly | 10.4 |
| 7 | 12 | Cole McCraw | Pinckney | 10.5 |
| 8 | 11 | Ashton Fink | Grand Rapids Christian | 10.9 |
| 9 | 10 | Logan Cristian | Parma Western | 11.8 |
| 10 | 12 | Caiden Caswell | Vicksburg | 14.2 |
| 11 | 12 | Bryce Cahoon | Shepherd | 19.3 |
| 12 | 9 | Drew Franken | Holland Christian | 20.6 |
| 13 | 10 | Grant Lampen | Holland Christian | 20.6 |
| 14 | 11 | James Scholten-Holcomb | Grand Rapids Christian | 21.6 |
| 15 | 12 | Thomas Fisher | East Grand Rapids | 22.7 |
| 16 | 11 | Grayson Michels | Forest Hills Eastern | 22.9 |
| 17 | 12 | Nick Parker | Frankenmuth | 24.2 |
| 18 | 12 | Seth Betzold | Essexville-Garber | 24.9 |
| 19 | 11 | Cole Heikka | Holly | 26.3 |
| 20 | 11 | Jack Hincks | Detroit Country Day | 27.2 |
| 21 | 11 | Liam Dewitt | Haslett | 28.1 |
| 22 | 12 | Wyeth Angus | Chelsea | 28.6 |
| 23 | 12 | Lukas Albright | Big Rapids | 28.8 |
| 24 | 12 | Lincoln Reed | Pinckney | 29.5 |
| 25 | 12 | Bryce Falbe | Muskegon Oakridge | 32.1 |
| 26 | 11 | Ethan Ferguson | Edwardsburg | 32.4 |
| 27 | 12 | Cameron Crane | New Boston Huron | 33.9 |
| 28 | 12 | Mason Hill | Allendale | 35.1 |
| 29 | 11 | David Kore | Three Rivers | 37.9 |
| 30 | 10 | Zander Stewart | Holland Christian | 37.9 |
| 31 | 11 | Christian Pavlige | Fruitport | 38.0 |
| 32 | 12 | Joshua Macri | Macomb Lutheran North | 38.6 |
| 33 | 11 | Duncan Palmer | Williamston | 39.5 |
| 34 | 12 | Jack Frentz | Petoskey | 41.1 |
| 35 | 12 | Seth Randall | St. Joseph | 41.2 |
| 36 | 12 | Hunter Smith | Vicksburg | 41.5 |
| 37 | 9 | Connor Charboneau | Saginaw Swan Valley | 44.2 |
| 38 | 12 | Reeve Oberman | Petoskey | 44.3 |
| 39 | 12 | Abraham McHugh | Marshall | 44.4 |
| 40 | 12 | Steven Zawacki | Forest Hills Eastern | 46.5 |
| 41 | 10 | Leland Sowle | Parma Western | 47.8 |
| 42 | 10 | Parker Smith | Adrian | 48.1 |
| 43 | 12 | Christopher Vogt | Paw Paw | 49.0 |
| 44 | 12 | Ben Bouchey | Flint Powers Catholic | 51.5 |
| 45 | 11 | Carson Wiersbe | St. Joseph | 53.8 |
| 46 | 12 | Carter Fenner | Adrian | 54.8 |
| 47 | 10 | Zach Diller | Holland Christian | 55.7 |
| 48 | 11 | Beckett Kneisel | East Grand Rapids | 56.1 |
| 49 | 12 | Owen Adams | Spring Lake | 57.0 |
| 50 | 12 | Cole Coffman | Holland Christian | 57.9 |
| 51 | 10 | Leonidas Erfourth | Owosso | 61.4 |
| 52 | 11 | Landon Lindsay | Paw Paw | 62.3 |
| 53 | 12 | Grayson Campbell | Vicksburg | 62.4 |
| 54 | 10 | Hudson Kemper | Grand Rapids South Christian | 65.2 |
| 55 | 12 | Connor Pepin | Croswell-Lexington | 65.9 |
| 56 | 11 | Jacob Kornoely | GR West Michigan Aviation | 66.3 |
| 57 | 10 | George Whitaker | Otsego | 66.9 |
| 58 | 11 | Ryan Rathsburg | Flint Powers Catholic | 67.5 |
| 59 | 12 | Ben Verlin | Grand Rapids South Christian | 67.6 |
| 60 | 12 | Garrett Lansing | Petoskey | 68.0 |
| 61 | 10 | John Rochowiak | Pinckney | 68.2 |
| 62 | 11 | Aiden Lambers | Holland | 68.4 |
| 63 | 10 | Cash Wilds | Pinckney | 68.5 |
| 64 | 12 | Christian Ayres | Battle Creek Harper Creek | 69.6 |
| 65 | 12 | Trevor Murphy | Holly | 69.6 |
| 66 | 10 | Nico Lebron | Alma | 71.0 |
| 67 | 11 | Isaiah Cates | Haslett | 71.4 |
| 68 | 9 | Braysen Kramer | DeWitt | 72.9 |
| 69 | 11 | Jackson Butts | Lake Fenton | 73.5 |
| 70 | 12 | Ryan Good | Parma Western | 74.5 |
| 71 | 11 | Grant Krause | Paw Paw | 75.1 |
| 72 | 12 | Lucas Aardema | East Grand Rapids | 75.7 |
| 73 | 12 | Alex Ten Haken | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 76.0 |
| 74 | 11 | Samuel Johnson | Alma | 76.4 |
| 75 | 12 | Samuel Clifton | Chelsea | 77.0 |
| 76 | 11 | Eli Morris | Tecumseh | 78.0 |
| 77 | 10 | Matt McFall | Pinckney | 80.4 |
| 78 | 11 | Andrew Nunning | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 82.4 |
| 79 | 10 | Colton Mulder | Cadillac | 83.0 |
| 80 | 12 | Peyton Farrell | Cedar Springs | 84.6 |
| 81 | 11 | Easton Coscarelli | Adrian | 87.1 |
| 82 | 9 | Spencer Sobak | Owosso | 87.9 |
| 83 | 12 | Jakin Whitney | Shepherd | 88.8 |
| 84 | 11 | Roan VanSumeren | Parma Western | 89.1 |
| 85 | 12 | Kevin Terpstra | Alma | 89.9 |
| 86 | 12 | Drew Davis | Shepherd | 89.9 |
| 87 | 12 | Ethan Kreger | St. Clair | 91.5 |
| 88 | 10 | John Brickley | Niles | 93.1 |
| 89 | 11 | Kaleb Koestner | Otsego | 93.2 |
| 90 | 12 | Omar Elbashir | Detroit Country Day | 94.1 |
| 91 | 12 | Josiah Rozema | Grand Rapids South Christian | 94.3 |
| 92 | 11 | Kash Moored | Hopkins | 95.0 |
| 93 | 9 | Colin Branch | DeWitt | 98.1 |
| 94 | 11 | Matthew LaPorte | St. Joseph | 98.8 |
| 95 | 11 | Alex Iordanou | Flint Powers Catholic | 98.9 |
| 96 | 12 | Carson Brey | Petoskey | 101.9 |
| 97 | 9 | Bennett Piippo | Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian | 104.5 |
| 98 | 11 | Alec Hoy | St. Johns | 108.0 |
| 99 | 12 | Jonathan Rapoza | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 108.0 |
| 100 | 10 | Caleb McBride | Marysville | 108.4 |
GIRLS INDIVIDUAL
Coming from all walks of life, all areas of the state, all ages. Some with valuable state final wisdom, others undergoing the experience for the first time.
Avery Engbers and Caroline Randall have had years of superb outcomes here, each All-State in all of their trips across the line. Randall’s highest finish was last year, where she placed 4th. Engbers came in two places behind her in 6th. Each have had moments of greatness this year, particularly at Otsego, where both girls reached into the mid-17’s during that barnburner of a race.
The winner of the Otsego race was a girl right across US-131, Natalya Hoffman. Hoffman was pegged to be one of the state’s outstanding freshmen. But seeing potential is one thing, it’s gotta be realized too. Her 17:29 over Mt. Bulldog was then the state’s fastest time. Her work since that day has only affirmed her quality as a runner, capturing Wolverine Conference and Region 13 titles.
Jaelyn Ray has been a force over this D2 scene for the past two seasons. She placed 5th here a year ago, then came back with her handprints all over the track finals. Speed was flashed in the finishing stretch of the 1600m. Championship mettle was exhibited in the final mile of the 3200m, where Ray claimed victory. Her cross season has featured forays into the 17’s and wins over adverse courses.
There have been years where Ava Schafer has reached the pinnacle. Two years ago, Schafer stormed through the late season, the momentum culminating in a state title. A season ago, she finished an admirable 7th. One final tour through Michigan courses and Schafer has returned to the form of 2024, three consecutive sub-18’s, her 17:22 from DeWitt the quickest she’s run in two years.
With much diversity, a deserving champion will emerge.
| Proj. Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Ava Schafer | St. Johns | 3.6 |
| 2 | 12 | Caroline Randall | Hastings | 4.0 |
| 3 | 9 | Natalya Hoffman | Plainwell | 4.1 |
| 4 | 11 | Avery Engbers | Holland Christian | 5.0 |
| 5 | 12 | Jaelyn Ray | Pinckney | 5.4 |
| 6 | 11 | Julia Bambach | Holly | 5.9 |
| 7 | 9 | Clara Cook | DeWitt | 7.1 |
| 8 | 12 | Maddie Lindley | Holly | 9.5 |
| 9 | 12 | Mia May | Sparta | 11.7 |
| 10 | 11 | Oakley Osterhart | Coopersville | 11.9 |
| 11 | 10 | Eliza Schwass | Ludington | 12.8 |
| 12 | 10 | Breslyn Klein | Coopersville | 12.9 |
| 13 | 12 | Addison Josephson | Linden | 13.2 |
| 14 | 11 | Kayla Shellenbarger | Goodrich | 16.0 |
| 15 | 12 | Ayda Skeels | Adrian | 17.5 |
| 16 | 12 | Ella McInerney | Cadillac | 18.7 |
| 17 | 11 | Tiffany DeMaagd | Grand Rapids South Christian | 20.0 |
| 18 | 9 | Annabel Buggia | Williamston | 20.3 |
| 19 | 12 | Olivia Weiss | Holland | 21.8 |
| 20 | 11 | Courtney Floeter | Linden | 22.6 |
| 21 | 9 | Evelyn Goosen | Spring Lake | 24.0 |
| 22 | 11 | Mai Nguyen | Plainwell | 24.9 |
| 23 | 12 | Alivia Ottinger | Goodrich | 26.3 |
| 24 | 11 | Remie Ellis | Eaton Rapids | 27.9 |
| 25 | 12 | Eliana Stob | Holland Christian | 28.3 |
| 26 | 12 | Ellery Lampen | Holland Christian | 30.3 |
| 27 | 11 | Madison Petty | Adrian | 31.5 |
| 28 | 12 | Clara Kaczor | Freeland | 32.5 |
| 29 | 10 | Addelyn Sabatke | Otsego | 35.9 |
| 30 | 12 | Zoe German | Fruitport | 37.0 |
| 31 | 10 | Adelyn Verhage | Otsego | 37.4 |
| 32 | 9 | Emi Crews | Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg | 37.4 |
| 33 | 10 | Alayna Verhage | Otsego | 39.1 |
| 34 | 10 | Lily VanEyk | Grand Rapids South Christian | 39.8 |
| 35 | 11 | Grace Leman | Edwardsburg | 40.9 |
| 36 | 11 | Anneliese Passchier | East Grand Rapids | 41.1 |
| 37 | 9 | Molly White | Holland Christian | 41.7 |
| 38 | 12 | Sawyer Reagan | Allendale | 44.4 |
| 39 | 12 | Zoe Hoekstra | Grand Rapids Christian | 45.4 |
| 40 | 10 | Noelle Hulst | Grand Rapids South Christian | 46.5 |
| 41 | 11 | Natalie Hayes | DeWitt | 49.5 |
| 42 | 11 | Dory Simon | Remus Chippewa Hills | 50.5 |
| 43 | 9 | Addison Andress | Otsego | 52.0 |
| 44 | 10 | Lydia Dwyer | Stevensville Lakeshore | 52.0 |
| 45 | 9 | Anna Zietlow | Holland Christian | 54.4 |
| 46 | 12 | Lucy Conzelmann | Frankenmuth | 54.7 |
| 47 | 12 | Ahna Woltjer | GR West Michigan Aviation | 55.5 |
| 48 | 12 | Adeline Armstrong | East Grand Rapids | 56.7 |
| 49 | 11 | Joy Van Wyk | Grand Rapids Christian | 57.1 |
| 50 | 12 | Skylar Mejeur | Otsego | 59.1 |
| 51 | 11 | Maya Hammoud | Detroit Country Day | 59.8 |
| 52 | 9 | Marian Byrd | Bloomfield Hills Marian | 61.0 |
| 53 | 9 | Molly Murphy | Holland | 62.4 |
| 54 | 12 | Lillian Dewey | Hopkins | 62.6 |
| 55 | 11 | Cailyn Baker | Shepherd | 62.7 |
| 56 | 11 | Eastynn Charder | Pinckney | 63.7 |
| 57 | 10 | Katherine Estes | Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood | 64.0 |
| 58 | 12 | Samantha Whitlam | Macomb Lutheran North | 64.1 |
| 59 | 9 | Carleigh Gearhart | Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg | 64.2 |
| 60 | 11 | Elizabeth Gerzema | Farmington Hills Mercy | 65.1 |
| 61 | 11 | Saige Cole | Yale | 66.2 |
| 62 | 12 | Mackenzie Huizenga | Holland Christian | 66.5 |
| 63 | 11 | Alena Sportel | Grand Rapids Christian | 68.2 |
| 64 | 11 | Chloe Mazza | Cadillac | 69.3 |
| 65 | 11 | Chloe Boright | Macomb Lutheran North | 70.0 |
| 66 | 12 | Baylor Lauinger | Goodrich | 70.7 |
| 67 | 9 | Charlotte Schellhammer | East Grand Rapids | 70.9 |
| 68 | 11 | Eva Lindstrom | Grand Rapids Christian | 73.9 |
| 69 | 9 | Cecelia Merrick | Gaylord | 75.4 |
| 70 | 10 | Taylee Fox | Otsego | 76.1 |
| 71 | 11 | Danica Redes | Shepherd | 76.3 |
| 72 | 11 | Lily Phillips | Forest Hills Eastern | 76.3 |
| 73 | 10 | Addisyn Wood | Sparta | 76.7 |
| 74 | 11 | Abby Crandell | Owosso | 77.4 |
| 75 | 11 | Maggie Scholma | Grand Rapids Christian | 77.8 |
| 76 | 12 | Sophia Buzzelli | Clare | 80.4 |
| 77 | 12 | Lucy Waalkes | Grand Rapids Christian | 80.5 |
| 78 | 12 | Colette Charchut | Haslett | 81.9 |
| 79 | 12 | Bridget Fidkowski | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 82.5 |
| 80 | 10 | Mia Hill | Allendale | 84.7 |
| 81 | 11 | Annika Stob | Holland Christian | 86.4 |
| 82 | 11 | Bridget Fullerton | Parma Western | 86.8 |
| 83 | 9 | Ella Bahle | Williamston | 87.3 |
| 84 | 11 | Mila Villarreal | Flint Powers Catholic | 88.7 |
| 85 | 12 | Johanna Mulder | Holland | 89.8 |
| 86 | 9 | Kennedy Kolodica | Linden | 90.7 |
| 87 | 9 | Mary Hickey | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 90.8 |
| 88 | 9 | Alice Starkey | Sturgis | 92.6 |
| 89 | 10 | Brooklyn Takagishi | DeWitt | 94.3 |
| 90 | 11 | Claire Miller | Monroe Jefferson | 94.3 |
| 91 | 11 | Grace Pacheco | New Boston Huron | 94.6 |
| 92 | 11 | Sonia Tatko | Grand Rapids Christian | 94.8 |
| 93 | 12 | Avery Silvas | Charlotte | 96.6 |
| 94 | 11 | Caroline Schellhammer | East Grand Rapids | 96.7 |
| 95 | 12 | Kylie Mausolf | Birch Run | 97.1 |
| 96 | 12 | Annabelle Lowman | Ludington | 100.5 |
| 97 | 12 | Anna Soltis | DeWitt | 100.9 |
| 98 | 10 | Emma Durling | Linden | 100.9 |
| 99 | 9 | Josephine Humphrey | Bloomfield Hills Marian | 101.5 |
| 100 | 12 | Sidney Shepard | Linden | 101.6 |
