State Week has arrived. Just as previous weeks and the Regional Projections, you get a ton of math and a little preview. Simulations and odds and stats and projections are the vehicle for talking about the best sport in the world, which will be on display Saturday at MIS.
An explanation from previous years that still holds true:
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev. 15:30 210 15:45 205 16:00 200 16:15 195 16:30 190 200 7.91 MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev. 16:09 197 16:12 196 16:15 195 16:18 194 16:21 193 195 1.58 Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating 1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6 2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1 3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2 4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5 5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7 6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1 7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9 8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9 9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0 10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6 11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5 12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4 13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6 14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1 15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6 16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2 17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2 18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6 19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1 20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9 I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
The regional projections were pretty solid this year. Adding up all the odds from the projected top-3 teams, you’d get 199 correct qualifiers. There were 197, essentially coming within a percentage point.
A change I made last year to shore up the projections was to filter out less important meets. These conference and weekday meets are great for building the database and showing the development of athletes who may not even run at the regional level, but they often are home to a runner’s slower efforts. All the important weekend meets are included. This same methodology is present here in 2026. One thing I noticed from looking back at ’25 is that early season meets weren’t adjusted highly enough. That has changed for 2026, although I’m not sure it’ll be a huge factor as those meets aren’t weighted that heavily at this point in the season.
The entries reflect those that are listed on athletic.net.
1000 simulations were run, which allows for various stats and odds to be calculated. I have a bunch listed, more than ever before:
Proj. Place = sorting from the lowest average score to the highest
Avg. Score = the average team score across all simulations
Win% = odds that a team will win
Podium % = odds that a team will receive a trophy
Top-10% = odds that a team will place in the top-10
95% Range = 95% of the outcomes will fall in this range, so for each division there should be around one outlier. I’d call this a fully confident chance.
65% Range = 65% of the outcomes will fall in this range, so for each division there should be around ten outliers. I’d call this a solid bet.
Podium Order % = the odds that the top-2 will fall in exactly that order
Top-5 Order % = the odds that the top-5 will fall exactly in that order
I also have an individual’s odds of winning and receiving All-State, though I’ll decline to post those until afterward.
As always, enjoy the writings. May they be a boost of confidence or a spur of motivation. Either way, they’re done out of love for the great competitors in Michigan. I’ll see you on Saturday.
BOYS TEAM
Back in August at the culmination of the Summer Preview, the thought was we might have new blood at the top of Division 1. Ann Arbor Skyline headed the pre-season list, a slight favorite for a new champion. One part was correct – there might be a changing of the guard. Another was vastly incorrect – many teams have entered the fray.
At various points in the fall, outfits from Jenison, Ann Arbor Skyline, Brighton, and Traverse City West have stated their claim for D1 supremacy.
Kicking off the year hot was Jenison, the Wildcats heading east to Northville to tackle the non-stop hills at Cass Benton. Jenison’s top-five men all covered the course in 16:45 or faster, a great omen for the rest of their season.
Traverse City West’s Titans met the Wildcats at Ottawa Hills, a true early season clash. Late in the day at Riverside, the TCW top-two were able to bring forth a gap, then the TCW depth was able to hold off Jenison.
A week later on the mud-soaked Holly hills, Ann Arbor Skyline and Brighton had their own battle, a close contest with a three-point separation, caused by Brighton’s excellent mid-pack racing.
A week later, surely motivated by the close defeat, Skyline took to much nicer conditions at Sharp Park. The Eagles unleashed what may have been the best team performance of the season, their top-five averaging a 15:40, all scorers sub-16 on the historic Jackson course.
At the end of the regular season, these four units descended upon Portage for a State preview. Through a mile, Skyline took an early lead. During the mid-section of the race, Brighton began to take over, climbing to a slight lead over Traverse City West. Over the final mile of the Portage West MS course, the Bulldogs extended their lead, setting the stage for state heroics and daring anyone to come after the black n’ orange.
| Proj. Place | Team | Proj. Score | Win % | Podium % | Top-10 % |
| 1 | Jenison | 156 | 27 | 65 | 95+ |
| 2 | Brighton | 160 | 33 | 57 | 95+ |
| 3 | Ann Arbor Skyline | 173 | 21 | 42 | 95+ |
| 4 | Traverse City West | 180 | 18 | 33 | 95+ |
| 5 | Midland | 249 | 2 | 94 | |
| 6 | Saline | 295 | 69 | ||
| 7 | Salem | 299 | 67 | ||
| 8 | Lowell | 299 | 61 | ||
| 9 | Kalamazoo Central | 301 | 61 | ||
| 10 | Northville | 305 | 61 | ||
| 11 | East Kentwood | 313 | 60 | ||
| 12 | Grand Ledge | 337 | 32 | ||
| 13 | Lake Orion | 342 | 28 | ||
| 14 | Caledonia | 343 | 29 | ||
| 15 | Highland-Milford | 363 | 8 | ||
| 16 | Dexter | 373 | 18 | ||
| 17 | Rockford | 411 | 7 | ||
| 18 | Traverse City Central | 415 | |||
| 19 | Romeo | 454 | |||
| 20 | White Lake Lakeland | 464 | |||
| 21 | Novi | 468 | |||
| 22 | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 482 | |||
| 23 | Rochester | 512 | |||
| 24 | Plymouth | 520 | |||
| 25 | Clarkston | 548 | |||
| 26 | Livonia Stevenson | 575 | |||
| 27 | Wyandotte Roosevelt | 661 |
| Proj. Place | Team | 95% Range | 65% Range |
| 1 | Jenison | 1 to 4 | 1 to 3 |
| 2 | Brighton | 1 to 5 | 1 to 4 |
| 3 | Ann Arbor Skyline | 1 to 6 | 1 to 4 |
| 4 | Traverse City West | 1 to 6 | 1 to 4 |
| 5 | Midland | 3 to 12 | 5 to 8 |
| 6 | Saline | 4 to 16 | 6 to 12 |
| 7 | Salem | 5 to 16 | 6 to 12 |
| 8 | Lowell | 4 to 16 | 6 to 13 |
| 9 | Kalamazoo Central | 5 to 16 | 6 to 13 |
| 10 | Northville | 4 to 17 | 6 to 14 |
| 11 | East Kentwood | 5 to 18 | 7 to 13 |
| 12 | Grand Ledge | 6 to 19 | 9 to 15 |
| 13 | Lake Orion | 7 to 18 | 9 to 16 |
| 14 | Caledonia | 6 to 19 | 9 to 16 |
| 15 | Highland-Milford | 9 to 19 | 12 to 17 |
| 16 | Dexter | 6 to 22 | 10 to 18 |
| 17 | Rockford | 8 to 24 | 14 to 20 |
| 18 | Traverse City Central | 11 to 22 | 15 to 20 |
| 19 | Romeo | 12 to 25 | 17 to 23 |
| 20 | White Lake Lakeland | 15 to 25 | 18 to 22 |
| 21 | Novi | 14 to 26 | 18 to 24 |
| 22 | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 15 to 26 | 19 to 24 |
| 23 | Rochester | 19 to 25 | 21 to 24 |
| 24 | Plymouth | 18 to 26 | 21 to 25 |
| 25 | Clarkston | 19 to 26 | 23 to 26 |
| 26 | Livonia Stevenson | 18 to 27 | 23 to 26 |
| 27 | Wyandotte Roosevelt | 25 to 27 | 27th |
The model sees Jenison as a slight favorite over Brighton, with Ann Arbor Skyline and Traverse City West barely trailing the two. Jenison has run at a consistently high level all season long, which gives the Wildcats a high floor and very few scenarios where they finish far down the standings. Skyline perhaps has the highest ceiling, Traverse City West blending the two. Brighton has the big wins.
This is a wide open race, rarely seen at the MHSAA championship level. Commonly, there’s a favorite or two teams in true contention. The teams aren’t that far off in their characteristics. Traverse City West is likely the strongest up front. Jenison has found a four-deep pack at the front, combined with a fifth runner among the state’s most steady. Brighton and Skyline spread their advantages all throughout their lineup, each spot hardly rivaled in comparison to others throughout the state.
As I’ve done with other divisions, I’ll throw out race numbers that produced different champions:
Race #25 went to Skyline. The Eagles conquered TCW’s top-two, held serve with Jenison’s depth, and Brighton had an off race.
Race #250 went to Brighton. The Bulldogs overwhelmed the field early, placing four boys in the top-40, making XC math easily work out in their favor.
Race #670 was had by Jenison. The Wildcats used a similar strategy to Brighton, placing four in the top-40. Their fifth wasn’t the fastest in the field, but he didn’t tumble down the leaderboard.
Race #991 went the way of Traverse City West. The Titans took their momentum from the Delta College regional and applied it to MIS, running in a very similar manner. Serious strength up front, their depth close behind.
A hidden factor always to consider, where the rest of the field fits. How these teams navigate packs and bubbles will play a major role, especially with these small margins. Every place will matter.
| Podium Order | Podium Order % |
| 1. Brighton, 2. Jenison | 18.7 |
| 1. Jenison, 2. Brighton | 11.5 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Skyline, 2. Jenison | 10.6 |
| 1. Jenison, 2. Ann Arbor Skyline | 8.3 |
| 1. Traverse City West, 2. Jenison | 8.2 |
| 1. Brighton, 2. Ann Arbor Skyline | 7.5 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Skyline, 2. Brighton | 7.3 |
| 1. Brighton, 2. Traverse City West | 5.8 |
| 1. Jenison, 2. Traverse City West | 5.7 |
| 1. Traverse City West, 2. Brighton | 5.6 |
| 1. Traverse City West, 2. Ann Arbor Skyline | 4.4 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Skyline, 2. Traverse City West | 3.3 |
| Top-5 Order | Top-5 Order % |
| 1. Brighton, 2. Jenison, 3. Ann Arbor Skyline, 4. Traverse City West, 5. Midland | 2.7 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Skyline, 2. Brighton, 3. Jenison, 4. Traverse City West, 5. Midland | 2 |
| 1. Traverse City West, 2. Jenison, 3. Brighton, 4. Ann Arbor Skyline, 5. Midland | 2 |
| 1. Brighton, 1. Jenison, 3. Traverse City West, 4. Ann Arbor Skyline, 5. Midland | 1.7 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Skyline, 2. Jenison, 3. Brighton, 4. Traverse City West, 5. Midland | 1.5 |
| 1. Jenison, 2. Brighton, 3. Ann Arbor Skyline, 4. Traverse City West, 5. Midland | 1.5 |
| 1. Jenison, 2. Brighton, 3. Traverse City West, 4. Ann Arbor Skyline, 5. Midland | 1.5 |
| 1. Brighton, 2. Ann Arbor Skyline, 3. Jenison, 4. Traverse City West, 5. Midland | 1.5 |
| 1. Traverse City West, 2. Brighton, 3. Jenison, 4. Ann Arbor Skyline, 5. Midland | 1.5 |
| 1. Jenison, 2. Ann Arbor Skyline, 3. Brighton, 4. Traverse City West, 5. Midland | 1.4 |
| 1. Brighton, 2. Jenison, 3. Ann Arbor Skyline, 4. Midland, 5. Traverse City West | 1.3 |
| 1. Brighton, 2. Jenison, 3. Ann Arbor Skyline, 4. Traverse City West, 5. Salem | 1.1 |
GIRLS TEAM
Winning is hard, repeating might be tougher. Having experience at the latter can be key when transitioning to a new year with many of the same faces. In 2026, Ann Arbor Pioneer has embraced those circumstances. Natasza Dudek, with her season that could lengthen into December, began her fall campaign later than most. That late opening led to new faces to conquer races. Keira Von Blon has embraced her newfound frontrunnin’ role, winning early at Holly and Centerville, then blasting into the 16’s this past week. Sienna Klemmer opened the season crossing the tape at Benzie, racing to the first sub-17 of her career. Development amongst the depth has also occurred, with Eliza Selcer dropping a minute over the past year, on the cusp of breaking into the 18’s. New challenges allow for growth, which the Pioneers have surely done.
| Proj. Place | Team | Proj. Score | Win % | Podium % | Top-10 % |
| 1 | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 86 | 95+ | 95+ | 95+ |
| 2 | Northville | 168 | 73 | 95+ | |
| 3 | Ann Arbor Skyline | 191 | 25 | 95+ | |
| 4 | Romeo | 228 | 2 | 95+ | |
| 5 | Portage Central | 262 | 95+ | ||
| 6 | Rochester Adams | 269 | 95+ | ||
| 7 | Hudsonville | 278 | 95+ | ||
| 8 | Brighton | 366 | 48 | ||
| 9 | Saline | 371 | 33 | ||
| 10 | White Lake Lakeland | 376 | 30 | ||
| 11 | Hartland | 376 | 35 | ||
| 12 | Dexter | 378 | 33 | ||
| 13 | Rockford | 384 | 24 | ||
| 14 | Novi | 386 | 26 | ||
| 15 | Brownstown Woodhaven | 396 | 14 | ||
| 16 | Howell | 410 | 20 | ||
| 17 | Midland Dow | 426 | 8 | ||
| 18 | Holland West Ottawa | 432 | 4 | ||
| 19 | Macomb Dakota | 435 | |||
| 20 | Grand Haven | 438 | 8 | ||
| 21 | Utica | 438 | 3 | ||
| 22 | Jenison | 453 | 6 | ||
| 23 | Traverse City Central | 456 | |||
| 24 | Traverse City West | 458 | 5 | ||
| 25 | Richland Gull Lake | 493 | |||
| 26 | Clarkston | 526 | |||
| 27 | Berkley | 605 | |||
| 28 | Grosse Pointe South | 663 | |||
| 29 | Salem | 687 |
| Proj. Place | Team | 95% Range | 65% Range |
| 1 | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 1st | 1st |
| 2 | Northville | 2 to 4 | 2 to 3 |
| 3 | Ann Arbor Skyline | 2 to 5 | 2 to 3 |
| 4 | Romeo | 3 to 6 | 4 to 5 |
| 5 | Portage Central | 4 to 8 | 5 to 7 |
| 6 | Rochester Adams | 3 to 9 | 5 to 7 |
| 7 | Hudsonville | 4 to 8 | 5 to 7 |
| 8 | Brighton | 7 to 20 | 8 to 15 |
| 9 | Saline | 7 to 18 | 9 to 15 |
| 10 | White Lake Lakeland | 8 to 20 | 9 to 15 |
| 11 | Hartland | 7 to 21 | 9 to 17 |
| 12 | Dexter | 8 to 21 | 9 to 17 |
| 13 | Rockford | 8 to 21 | 10 to 17 |
| 14 | Novi | 8 to 23 | 10 to 18 |
| 15 | Brownstown Woodhaven | 8 to 22 | 11 to 18 |
| 16 | Howell | 7 to 25 | 10 to 22 |
| 17 | Midland Dow | 8 to 25 | 13 to 22 |
| 18 | Holland West Ottawa | 10 to 25 | 15 to 22 |
| 19 | Macomb Dakota | 11 to 25 | 16 to 22 |
| 20 | Grand Haven | 9 to 26 | 13 to 24 |
| 21 | Utica | 10 to 25 | 15 to 23 |
| 22 | Jenison | 9 to 26 | 15 to 25 |
| 23 | Traverse City Central | 11 to 26 | 17 to 24 |
| 24 | Traverse City West | 9 to 26 | 17 to 25 |
| 25 | Richland Gull Lake | 18 to 26 | 22 to 25 |
| 26 | Clarkston | 13 to 27 | 23 to 26 |
| 27 | Berkley | 26 to 28 | 27 to 27 |
| 28 | Grosse Pointe South | 27 to 29 | 28 to 29 |
| 29 | Salem | 27 to 29 | 28 to 29 |
Cross country math is a beautiful subject area. With Natasza Dudek, Keira Von Blon, and Sienna Klemmer climbing to the top of the leaderboard in every race, the math becomes simple. Their single-digit points, plus two other Pioneer competitors. This creates a high floor! Even if Pioneer had the lowest-placing runners in the remainder of the field, they’d end up around 400 points, typically good enough for a 15th place finish. The trouble for the 28 other teams toeing the line on Saturday afternoon is that Pioneer has more than capable depth pieces. The 4th-7th girls from the purple-clad crew have all had fast moments of glory, all with SB’s at 19:15 or faster. This creates a tough math equation for the rest of the field, as there aren’t enough points to gain at the most consequential spots in the lineup.
A fun battle however might be for the second podium spot. Ann Arbor Skyline and Northville have each had moments that show they deserve to step on that stage. For Skyline, that came at Jackson, where all five scoring Eagles crossed the line under 18:50, giving their crosstown rivals some serious run. Skyline hasn’t replicated that since, but they showed last November that they can surprise on the state platform, thus I wouldn’t count the west Ann Arbor crew out. The apex of the Mustang season thus far may have been at Portage. The emerging Brynn Somers gives such an advantage, allowing Northville to score miniscule points at a spot where a majority of the competitors score much more. Her 18:09 there was good for 11th place, one of three Mustangs near the front, leading to a runner-up placing behind Pioneer and ahead of Skyline.
| Podium Order | Podium Order % |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Northville | 72.2 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Ann Arbor Skyline | 25.3 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Romeo | 1.8 |
| Top-5 Order | Top-5 Order % |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Northville, 3. Ann Arbor Skyline, 4. Romeo, 5. Portage Central | 18 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Northville, 3. Ann Arbor Skyline, 4. Romeo, 5. Rochester Adams | 12.8 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Northville, 3. Ann Arbor Skyline, 4. Romeo, 5. Hudsonville | 8.7 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Ann Arbor Skyline, 3. Northville, 4. Romeo, 5. Portage Central | 6.8 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Northville, 3. Ann Arbor Skyline, 4. Portage Central, 5. Romeo | 5.7 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Northville, 3. Ann Arbor Skyline, 4. Rochester Adams, 5. Romeo | 5.2 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Ann Arbor Skyline, 3 Northville, 4. Romeo, 5. Rochester Adams | 4.4 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Northville, 3. Romeo, 4. Ann Arbor Skyline, 5. Portage Central | 3.9 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Ann Arbor Skyline, 3. Northville, 4. Romeo, 5. Hudsonville | 3.3 |
| 1. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2. Northville, 3. Romeo, 4. Ann Arbor Skyline, 5. Rochester Adams | 3.3 |
BOYS INDIVIDUAL
It’s coming to a head on the grass for the vaunted 2027 class. This group of senior harriers has accomplished so much. Combined with the elites of other divisions, they’ve brought forth:
- 8 sub-15’s on the cross course this fall
- 7 sub-1:55 800m athletes
- 17 sub-4:20’s in the 1600m this past spring
- 13 sub-9:15’s over eight laps in the 3200m
Some reside in other divisions – Bobby Jazwinski, Hunter Eaton, Ezekiel Baltierra to name a few.
Most compete here in D1, all in contention for this victory. Anyone can make a case, all with strong resumes and positive past experiences. We’ve got:
Kamari Ronfeldt – the defending champion, sub-15 in each of the past three seasons, coming off his fastest mark of the season
Caden Livermore – unbeaten on the year, owner of the fastest time in D1, capable of contending in the 1600m all the way to the 5k
Jack MacGregor – defending indoor 3200m champion, 3x Region 4 winner
Brandon Cloud – defending 3200m outdoor champion who always brings another gear for the State Finals
Luka Hammond – twice the 1600m champion, owner of the fastest 3200m mark from the spring season
Samuel Baker – twice All-State, Region 3 and SMAC Champion that went sub-15 at Portage
Marshall Huhn – sub-15 at Ottawa Hills, runner-up to Baker last week
Matii Tarekegn – recent addition to this elite level, enough massive improvement to notch two sub-15’s this fall.
This all doesn’t even mention those who will be here for a little longer. Xavier Solgot dropped a 14:55 to win Region 9. He also proved last fall that he can jump up a level at MIS. Archer VerHage is on a path to becoming our next great miler, though he’s taken a detour to extend his range to cross, barely trailing Livermore and Hammond to run a 14:51 at the OK Red Final. This past spring, ranking as Michigan’s top 1600m and 3200m amongst 10th graders was Gavin Katic, who’s backed it up on the cross courses with multiple low-15’s and a Region 2 win.
Many contenders with one final run, a few with the juice to upend the hegemony. We’re in for a treat.
| Proj. Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Caden Livermore | Grandville | 1.9 |
| 2 | 12 | Jack MacGregor | Howell | 4.8 |
| 3 | 12 | Kamari Ronfeldt | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 5.0 |
| 4 | 12 | Luka Hammond | Grand Haven | 5.6 |
| 5 | 12 | Samuel Baker | Kalamazoo Central | 7.7 |
| 6 | 12 | Brandon Cloud | Northville | 8.4 |
| 7 | 12 | Matii Tarekegn | East Kentwood | 9.6 |
| 8 | 10 | Archer VerHage | Grand Haven | 9.7 |
| 9 | 12 | Marshall Huhn | Lowell | 11.0 |
| 10 | 11 | Gavin Katic | Fenton | 12.3 |
| 11 | 12 | Austin Mercado | Salem | 13.4 |
| 12 | 12 | Jacob Szalay | Saline | 13.8 |
| 13 | 11 | Xavier Solgot | L’Anse Creuse North | 16.5 |
| 14 | 12 | Liam Wierzba | Traverse City West | 19.0 |
| 15 | 12 | Logan Gessford | Midland | 22.8 |
| 16 | 12 | Justin Johnson | East Kentwood | 22.9 |
| 17 | 11 | Sean Thompson | Caledonia | 25.6 |
| 18 | 11 | Alexander Allen | Alpena | 26.1 |
| 19 | 11 | Cooper McNaughton | Clarkston | 26.3 |
| 20 | 11 | Mourad Algahmi | Dearborn Fordson | 27.5 |
| 21 | 11 | Roman Stilwell | Ann Arbor Skyline | 31.0 |
| 22 | 10 | Grant Kulesza | Brighton | 32.7 |
| 23 | 10 | Tanner Smith | Zeeland West | 34.6 |
| 24 | 12 | Coen Hill | Dexter | 34.9 |
| 25 | 11 | Finn Frost-Grayson | Traverse City West | 35.4 |
| 26 | 11 | Caleb Conner | Jenison | 36.5 |
| 27 | 11 | Kilian Boulware-Lopez | East Lansing | 37.7 |
| 28 | 12 | Ethan Burks | Jenison | 39.5 |
| 29 | 11 | Chase Sherman | Jenison | 42.6 |
| 30 | 11 | Carter Cooke | Jenison | 43.1 |
| 31 | 11 | Marcus Essling | Portage Central | 43.2 |
| 32 | 12 | Nick Martens | Dexter | 44.4 |
| 33 | 11 | Johnathan Elsea | Mount Pleasant | 45.2 |
| 34 | 11 | Lucas Campbell | Rochester | 45.4 |
| 35 | 11 | Nikhil Ball | South Lyon East | 46.3 |
| 36 | 12 | Jack Hanner | Salem | 46.5 |
| 37 | 10 | Josh Keillor-Beale | Brighton | 47.2 |
| 38 | 11 | Karson Lewis | Battle Creek Lakeview | 47.7 |
| 39 | 10 | Jackson Pant | Richland Gull Lake | 47.7 |
| 40 | 11 | Rylen Richey | Grand Ledge | 48.5 |
| 41 | 12 | Caelan Marsh | Grand Ledge | 48.6 |
| 42 | 12 | Colin Stawasz | Lowell | 48.7 |
| 43 | 10 | Aiden Doggett | Highland-Milford | 48.9 |
| 44 | 12 | Devin Lau | Farmington | 50.5 |
| 45 | 10 | Tucker Asman | Brighton | 50.8 |
| 46 | 11 | Luke Bultman | Rockford | 52.1 |
| 47 | 12 | Cody Bromley | Lowell | 52.9 |
| 48 | 12 | Connor O’Reilly | Davison | 53.5 |
| 49 | 11 | Martin Gehrke | Ann Arbor Skyline | 53.8 |
| 50 | 9 | Cody Lam | Kalamazoo Loy Norrix | 54.4 |
| 51 | 11 | Rem Piper | Holt | 56.2 |
| 52 | 11 | Todd Tobin Jr | Highland-Milford | 57.5 |
| 53 | 12 | Emmet Gardella | Detroit U-D Jesuit | 59.3 |
| 54 | 11 | Roarke MacArthur | Brighton | 59.4 |
| 55 | 10 | Tommy McCormick | Grand Blanc | 61.5 |
| 56 | 11 | Elijah Demlow | Battle Creek Lakeview | 62.3 |
| 57 | 11 | Aidan Schwalbach | Rochester Hills Stoney Creek | 63.8 |
| 58 | 11 | Oskar MacArthur | Ann Arbor Skyline | 63.9 |
| 59 | 10 | Lucas Naspinsky | White Lake Lakeland | 64.1 |
| 60 | 11 | Wes Rogan | Saline | 65.1 |
| 61 | 11 | Brady Glon | Detroit Catholic Central | 65.9 |
| 62 | 10 | Hudson Doll | Ann Arbor Skyline | 66.0 |
| 63 | 12 | Trevor Baptist | Novi | 66.7 |
| 64 | 12 | Aduet (Jimma) Atem | East Kentwood | 67.6 |
| 65 | 11 | Elliot King | Midland | 68.3 |
| 66 | 10 | Bryson Hassevoort | Zeeland West | 68.6 |
| 67 | 10 | Wyatt DelValle | Gibraltar Carlson | 69.2 |
| 68 | 11 | Wesley LaFever | Macomb Dakota | 70.6 |
| 69 | 11 | Lucas Brumo | Livonia Stevenson | 71.5 |
| 70 | 9 | Braden Millar | Northville | 75.4 |
| 71 | 11 | Brendan Williams | Brighton | 75.7 |
| 72 | 12 | Brady Winther-MacInnis | Kalamazoo Central | 76.2 |
| 73 | 12 | Samuel Batt | Salem | 77.9 |
| 74 | 12 | Austin Taft | Traverse City West | 78.7 |
| 75 | 11 | Ricardo Guajardo | Lake Orion | 79.9 |
| 76 | 12 | Matthew Guikema | Ann Arbor Skyline | 82.7 |
| 77 | 11 | Pascal Rasmussen | Saginaw Heritage | 83.1 |
| 78 | 9 | Hans Templeton | Jenison | 83.8 |
| 79 | 10 | Emmett Duggar | Traverse City West | 85.5 |
| 80 | 11 | Adam Shorb | Portage Northern | 86.1 |
| 81 | 11 | Joseph DuGuay | Traverse City Central | 86.2 |
| 82 | 10 | Alex Pelliccia | Midland | 87.3 |
| 83 | 10 | Luis Nava | Lake Orion | 88.7 |
| 84 | 11 | Asa Konwinski | Troy | 91.3 |
| 85 | 12 | Nolan Lounds | Grand Ledge | 91.3 |
| 86 | 12 | Evan Fox | Traverse City Central | 91.5 |
| 87 | 9 | Jack Klein | White Lake Lakeland | 92.8 |
| 88 | 10 | Austin Hughes | Traverse City West | 93.7 |
| 89 | 12 | Vincent Jones | Brownstown Woodhaven | 95.2 |
| 90 | 11 | Bradley Chesney | Midland | 99.6 |
| 91 | 12 | Garrett Comer | Ann Arbor Skyline | 101.5 |
| 92 | 11 | Colby Bartells | Kalamazoo Central | 103.1 |
| 93 | 11 | Manny Coates | Northville | 103.3 |
| 94 | 12 | Josiah Derksen | Rockford | 103.3 |
| 95 | 10 | Davin MacDonald | Ann Arbor Skyline | 103.6 |
| 96 | 12 | Bradley Smies | Hudsonville | 104.4 |
| 97 | 10 | Avery Clinton-Barnett | Lake Orion | 106.6 |
| 98 | 10 | Jaden Hill | Allen Park | 108.9 |
| 99 | 9 | Dane Jadallah | Plymouth | 109.2 |
| 100 | 11 | Zachary Greene | Wyandotte Roosevelt | 110.8 |
GIRLS INDIVIDUAL
Returning to the epicenter of Division 1 girls running is state champion, MIS record holder, and national champion – Natasza Dudek.
Dudek set fire to this course last year, kicking the race off with a torrential pace, hitting the mile at 5:09. At two, she’d barely let up, splitting 10:28, coming through with a 30+ second margin over the field. By the finish, she had crossed the course in 16:09, nearly 20 seconds faster than the previous record (set by former Pioneer legend, Rachel Forsyth). The record-breaking day was one just notch in the history book, as her season extended into December, culminating in crowns at NXN and at Brooks Nationals.
Given the prospect of a season that might finish in over a month’s time, her racing schedule has been lightened. She’s raced five times, each finishing time of the sub-17 variety. What’s remarkable has been her consistency – from the four major meets, her speed ratings have all been between 186 and 187. A seriously high level that has rarely been hit amongst the history of this site.
This all seems normal, which speaks volumes of her accomplishments to date. We have to remind ourselves that these 16:xx efforts are rare, state records typically don’t drastically falter, that national champions aren’t an everyday occurrence. That’s a tough task with which Natasza has continually brought to the table.
| Proj. Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Natasza Dudek | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 1.0 |
| 2 | 10 | Keira Von Blon | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 2.4 |
| 3 | 11 | Sienna Klemmer | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 2.9 |
| 4 | 11 | Adalyn Raab | Zeeland East | 5.1 |
| 5 | 10 | Alexandra Scappaticci | Northville | 5.2 |
| 6 | 11 | Rachel Smith | Okemos | 6.5 |
| 7 | 10 | Grace Snyder | Hudsonville | 9.1 |
| 8 | 12 | Annie Hrabovsky | Romeo | 9.3 |
| 9 | 11 | Emilia Garces | Midland Dow | 9.4 |
| 10 | 12 | Lucia Lachapelle | Northville | 12.2 |
| 11 | 11 | Ainsley Kelm | Portage Northern | 12.9 |
| 12 | 12 | Tessa Mascari | Traverse City West | 13.2 |
| 13 | 12 | Daisy Cox | Rockford | 13.2 |
| 14 | 11 | Paige Rohda | Berkley | 15.9 |
| 15 | 11 | Charlotte Jones | Rochester | 18.2 |
| 16 | 12 | El McMahan | Rochester Adams | 19.7 |
| 17 | 11 | Gabriella Mercier | Macomb Dakota | 20.4 |
| 18 | 12 | Katarina Munson | Saline | 21.5 |
| 19 | 10 | Brynn Somers | Northville | 21.8 |
| 20 | 12 | Anyla Robinson | Oak Park | 23.8 |
| 21 | 12 | Chloe Purwin | Hudsonville | 24.1 |
| 22 | 11 | Avery Scott | Portage Central | 25.2 |
| 23 | 11 | Alannah Wessel | Romeo | 26.9 |
| 24 | 11 | Savannah Staton | Saline | 27.2 |
| 25 | 11 | Charley McKay | Brownstown Woodhaven | 27.5 |
| 26 | 12 | Paige McMeans | Jenison | 27.9 |
| 27 | 12 | Isla Tharp | Ann Arbor Skyline | 28.6 |
| 28 | 10 | Kaitlyn Berg | Midland | 28.9 |
| 29 | 10 | Grace Meyers | Bay City Western | 31.1 |
| 30 | 9 | Brooklyn Thomasma | East Kentwood | 32.2 |
| 31 | 10 | Lexie Snyder | Hudsonville | 33.9 |
| 32 | 10 | Claire Lawrence | Bloomfield Hills | 34.5 |
| 33 | 10 | Taryn Moore | Oxford | 35.7 |
| 34 | 12 | Annie Isom | Richland Gull Lake | 38.1 |
| 35 | 9 | Claire Cubitt | Utica | 38.6 |
| 36 | 11 | Alexandra Green | Birmingham Seaholm | 38.8 |
| 37 | 12 | Reese Rosbolt | Romeo | 42.1 |
| 38 | 12 | Abigail Dobry | Dexter | 42.9 |
| 39 | 9 | Harper Henderson | Jenison | 45.2 |
| 40 | 12 | Lane Isom | Richland Gull Lake | 45.9 |
| 41 | 10 | Jessica Soldan | Rochester Adams | 46.0 |
| 42 | 12 | Kodie Snyder | Dexter | 47.5 |
| 43 | 12 | Becca Van Lent | Ann Arbor Skyline | 48.9 |
| 44 | 12 | Avery DeGrendel | Clarkston | 49.4 |
| 45 | 11 | Lila Edison | Ann Arbor Skyline | 50.3 |
| 46 | 11 | Adelynn Turck | Saline | 51.5 |
| 47 | 12 | Lizzie Wernimont | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 53.3 |
| 48 | 10 | Gwyn Faber | Forest Hills Northern | 53.5 |
| 49 | 12 | Nina Moore | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 53.6 |
| 50 | 12 | Morgan Scally | White Lake Lakeland | 54.0 |
| 51 | 11 | Gianna Burgos | Battle Creek Lakeview | 54.7 |
| 52 | 11 | Ella Lorenz | Brighton | 55.8 |
| 53 | 10 | Ava Montero | Grand Ledge | 56.9 |
| 54 | 12 | Collette Wierks | Holland West Ottawa | 57.6 |
| 55 | 11 | Keagan Mulka | Rockford | 58.6 |
| 56 | 11 | Lucia Llanes | Ann Arbor Skyline | 59.1 |
| 57 | 10 | Eleanor Pilsner | Grosse Pointe South | 59.5 |
| 58 | 9 | Anna Mansilla | Rochester Adams | 60.0 |
| 59 | 9 | Molly Sarrach | Romeo | 60.2 |
| 60 | 10 | Ruby Hoffmann | Hartland | 61.5 |
| 61 | 10 | Abby Deering | Rochester Adams | 64.3 |
| 62 | 10 | Reagan Mason | Howell | 64.8 |
| 63 | 10 | Tessa Albrecht | Zeeland West | 67.3 |
| 64 | 12 | Katelynn Egli | Novi | 69.1 |
| 65 | 9 | Valentina Lopez-Bringas | Portage Central | 69.2 |
| 66 | 12 | Irie Scrase | Ann Arbor Skyline | 73.1 |
| 67 | 12 | Ella Wierks | Holland West Ottawa | 74.4 |
| 68 | 10 | Grace Mathers | Macomb Dakota | 75.0 |
| 69 | 11 | Gracie Carlisle | Portage Central | 75.6 |
| 70 | 12 | Jillian Broyles | Highland-Milford | 76.0 |
| 71 | 10 | Emma Putnam | Lowell | 78.2 |
| 72 | 11 | Claire Galas | Novi | 78.3 |
| 73 | 12 | Akaela Daman | Caledonia | 78.5 |
| 74 | 11 | Julia Welc | Portage Central | 79.8 |
| 75 | 12 | Ava Goodman | Hartland | 80.1 |
| 76 | 11 | Jaclyn Charbauski | Forest Hills Northern | 80.7 |
| 77 | 10 | Audrey Grosteffon | Temperance Bedford | 81.7 |
| 78 | 12 | Anna Macdonald | Royal Oak | 82.3 |
| 79 | 9 | Lily Szukaitis | Northville | 84.2 |
| 80 | 11 | Kylie Brown | Utica | 86.7 |
| 81 | 12 | Ashley Lubowicki | Brighton | 89.6 |
| 82 | 10 | Ariana Elzinga | Grandville | 90.3 |
| 83 | 10 | Lila Miller | Hartland | 90.8 |
| 84 | 11 | Kelly Comfort | Traverse City Central | 92.8 |
| 85 | 9 | Lillien Hitsman | Grand Haven | 94.9 |
| 86 | 10 | Ella German | Novi | 96.3 |
| 87 | 12 | Morgan Allen | Mason | 96.9 |
| 88 | 11 | Annabelle Chan | Brownstown Woodhaven | 98.0 |
| 89 | 10 | Cecelia Jacobson | Traverse City Central | 98.4 |
| 90 | 10 | Brooke Wallace | Howell | 98.9 |
| 91 | 12 | Maya Pletzer | White Lake Lakeland | 99.0 |
| 92 | 9 | Maddie Newman | South Lyon East | 99.0 |
| 93 | 10 | Clare O’Reilly | Troy Athens | 99.2 |
| 94 | 9 | Sophia Baier | Lake Orion | 100.0 |
| 95 | 10 | Eliza Selcer | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 101.0 |
| 96 | 12 | Anna Sheppard | Mount Pleasant | 101.7 |
| 97 | 10 | Blix Finn | Ann Arbor Skyline | 101.9 |
| 98 | 12 | Olivia Jenney | Bloomfield Hills | 102.4 |
| 99 | 12 | Anna Halliday | Howell | 103.5 |
| 100 | 12 | Vivian Hoffman | Dexter | 103.6 |
