Expected Outcomes
If I told you that after Saturday, the Michigan Wolverines would have a 40% chance of beating Michigan State, a 10% chance of beating Oregon, a 20% chance of beating UCLA, and a 10% chance of beating Ohio State – the expectation would be that they’d win 1 game. Yes, they’d be underdogs in each, but 0.4 + 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.8, which is closer to 1 than 0. Yes, they’re that bad and will hopefully move on from a coach who looks like he’s had a deer in the headlights all fall.
With odds given to the winners, podium, and top-10, I don’t expect to be 100% correct on every projection ever. We saw this in the regional setting, where the expectation was that I’d predict 199 of the top-3 teams. I was correct on 197 of ‘em, within 1%. If that latter number was well above 200, then I wasn’t favoring the favorites enough, if it were much lower, the same can be said for the underdogs.
Anyhow, adding the percentages of the winners gives 6.63 teams, the podium 12.8, the top-10 70.3, and 192 of the potential 240 All-Staters. In essence, the projections will be accurate if they’re wrong on 1-2 winning teams, 3 podium teams, 10 top-10 teams, and 48 All-State earners.
Projected All-State Cutoffs
Running race simulations, one can project everything that’s been shown, and it can also show where 30th place lies in each race. The average ratings of the 30th place finishers were:
Division 1 Boys: 201
Division 2 Boys: 194
Division 3 Boys: 188.5
Division 4 Boys: 172.7
Division 1 Girls: 146.5
Division 2 Girls: 136
Division 3 Girls: 119.5
Division 4 Girls: 100.7
Peering at the weather, I’d expect the course to run a little slower than in previous years, but not overwhelmingly so. I’d guess the adjustment will be around +15, which would make the projected 30th place times:
Division 1 Boys: 15:42
Division 2 Boys: 16:03
Division 3 Boys: 16:20
Division 4 Boys: 17:08
Division 1 Girls: 18:24
Division 2 Girls: 18:57
Division 3 Girls: 19:47
Division 4 Girls: 20:44
Obviously, heed your coach’s strategy over these times. And if the weather suddenly turns horrific, block these out of your memory. These are all a prediction that I’m posting beforehand.
Looking Back to Summer
I take a little pride in the summer previews being close to correct. I’m still gonna write ‘em, cause how better to keep the sport at the attention of many than to constantly give coverage, but they’ve gotta be somewhat accurate along the way. From 2019 to 2025, I’ve been 33/56 on predicting the state champion.
2026’s Summer Preview had:
Division 1 Boys: Ann Arbor Skyline
Division 2 Boys: Holland Christian
Division 3 Boys: Saugatuck
Division 4 Boys: Holland Calvary Christian
Division 1 Girls: Ann Arbor Pioneer
Division 2 Girls: Holland Christian
Division 3 Girls: Lansing Catholic
Division 4 Girls: Hillsdale Academy
Last season was rough (but gave for some great stories). Hopefully the trend flips, however if not, I guess I’ll have a ton of winter writing.
In Closing
This is the culmination of training, preparing, parenting, coaching, and guiding for you. This is the end of writing and projecting for me. I’ll be out there tomorrow in my traditional Speed Rating shirt. If you see me, say hi, understand that I probably won’t recognize you, so just introduce yourself! It’ll be a blast for us all, collectively watching or participating in the greatest sport in the world.
