Uncategorized

2022 Mid-Season Regional Projections – Happy Acres

SUMMER PREVIEW

Race to Watch

Half the reason I do these previews is to give a midseason update. The other half is to figure out how much content I can bring for Regional Week. Writing about teams that have improved, individuals who have stood out is enlightening and I’m sure feels good for those listed, but it sure as heck takes time. Perhaps concentrating on one race is better for me? We’ll find out.

Both the Boys and Girls races for the victory, for 3rd place seem set in stone, Carina Burchi has been dominantly improving, let’s think about the top Boys. Three contenders: Landen Livingston, Caleb Howard, and Logan Cooper.

The only head to head race between the three was this past weekend here at Happy Acres, where Logan Cooper finished 2nd in the Josh Lott Memorial Invite.

Caleb was 8th, but was by far his best time of the year. Caleb had shown he’s in this type of shape, running 18:18 at Saranac on a brutally hot day, he’s also shown he can perform under pressure, placing top-50 at State the previous two seasons.

We saw it first on the track, where Logan dropped his 800m best from 2:41 to 2:08. We’re seeing it now on the grass, Logan was north of 19:00 for much of the 2021 season. His magical year isn’t just evident in times, the medals are racking up as well, top-10 finishes at his last 5 invites.

Livingston is the wild card. Just a freshman, he’s had his ups and downs. Three sub-18’s, most recently in a competitive field at New Balance. Holly didn’t go his way, but I’m sure it was a great learning experience. Let’s watch to see if he can establish a bit of consistency in this next month.

PlaceGradeNameTeamRating
112Logan CooperPotterville170.1
29Landen LivingstonWhitmore Lake165.2
312Caleb HowardWebberville162.2
412Braylan MajeskyWhitmore Lake159.4
512Deegan BodellCarson City-Crystal158.7
611Cameron GriffinWhitmore Lake155.7
712Jacob SkidmoreNovi Christian Academy153.0
811Reily HendersonWhitmore Lake146.1
911Jobe SkaffNovi Christian Academy144.8
109Emmanuel MehariPlymouth Christian Academy144.6
119Quentin SmithFowler141.7
1212Drew PeckensWebberville140.2
1312Dennis WilsonNovi Christian Academy136.6
1412Vincenzo LewanPlymouth Christian Academy136.1
1511Trevor FeldpauschFowler135.9
1612Adam MoorePlymouth Christian Academy132.8
179Timothy ChamberlainPortland St. Patrick131.2
1812Brayden ClarkCarson City-Crystal131.0
199Kristian CoonCarson City-Crystal130.6
2012Oisin O’GradyCarson City-Crystal128.9

PlaceGradeNameTeamRating
19Carina BurchiWhitmore Lake127.7
212Ashlyn KephartLansing Christian100.5
311Ellayna MeredithPortland St. Patrick100.3
411Natalie MeadowsWhitmore Lake95.2
59Elodie WeaverWhitmore Lake94.2
610Kelcie PungFowler85.2
711Josie DubucNovi Christian Academy84.5
812Brooke CravenWhitmore Lake83.4
99Madi HarePlymouth Christian Academy82.4
1010Erica WalkerClarkston Everest Collegiate79.5
119Sofia RobertsonWhitmore Lake70.6
129Taylor WiegandLivingston Christian70.1
1312Cozette BrownPortland St. Patrick68.5
1411Mya GuillermoNovi Christian Academy66.0
1510Landry GomezSt. Charles57.8
160Grace BellNovi Christian Academy52.8
1711Eve HerrgottClarkston Everest Collegiate51.9
1812Grace PiggottFowler51.6
1911Ciara ParsonsWhitmore Lake44.7
209Alaina DriverPotterville43.5
Uncategorized

2022 Mid-Season Regional Projections – Shrine

SUMMER PREVIEW

  • I received a bit of pushback over the summer for ranking the Royal Oak Shrine boys so high, well look who’s still here in first
    • Okay, they didn’t add the great number of 8th graders as projected, but unless anyone finds a better method than assuming 8th graders running cross will run 9th grade cross, let me know
    • The 9th graders that have competed for the Knights, Michael Bowker and Abenezer Cerone, have made a noticeable impact on their fortunes
      • Bowker has run in the 18’s on a variety of courses – Holly, Goodells, Algonac
      • Cerone has followed the same pattern, albeit a tad faster, high-17’s at those venues
  • Although the top three remain the same for the boys, Lutheran Westland has moved down significantly in terms of points
    • Year to year, the Warriors have raced at the same places, and in those races (OCS Small School, Holly, Ramblin Rock, Whitmore Lake), Nathan Betke has finished almost 100 seconds faster on average in 2022 compared to 2021
    • Nathan clocks in as Westland’s 5th runner on the chart below, and as you can see, he’s the best 5th runner in the field
  • The Girls section remains a similar order and range of scores compared to earlier
    • Rochester Hills Lutheran NW has absorbed the absence of one of their key contributors, who I believe will be back soon, and heck, they’re still in first
      • Kendall Zaliwski has stepped up for the Crusaders, at Holly she ran 64 seconds faster than in 2021, and a 2022 season best
    • Auburn Hills Oakland Christian doesn’t have a few of the girls that I had anticipated joining the team, but that’s been offset by Leah Zarilli, who just placed 8th in the first MIAC Jamboree, 4 spots better than any placing last year

PlaceTeamScore1st Boy2nd Boy3rd Boy4th Boy5th Boy6th Boy7th Boy
1Royal Oak Shrine78481026303543
2Lutheran Westland8011121321233138
3Marine City Cardinal Mooney80291822293237

PlaceTeamScore1st Girl2nd Girl3rd Girl4th Girl5th Girl6th Girl7th Girl
1Rochester Hills Lutheran NW464689192426
2Auburn Hills Oakland Christian54251217182528
3Royal Oak Shrine587101114162023

PlaceGradeNameTeamRating
112Christopher RusselburgAllen Park Cabrini191.2
211Tyler LennMarine City Cardinal Mooney177.3
312Alex MeszarosRiverview Gabriel Richard171.9
49Abenezer CeroneRoyal Oak Shrine162.9
512Merrick MichaelsonWest Bloomfield Frankel Jewish Academy161.1
612Johnny BenkoRiverview Gabriel Richard156.9
711TJ DonnanSouthfield Christian153.1
89Michael BowkerRoyal Oak Shrine150.5
911Isaac ZammitMarine City Cardinal Mooney150.2
1012Arline LileRoyal Oak Shrine148.1
119Max BrannanLutheran Westland146.2
1211Jeffrey McGuireLutheran Westland146.2
1310Tom ShaferLutheran Westland139.2
1411AJ OwenBirmingham Roeper138.7
1511Luke DouglasAuburn Hills Oakland Christian137.9
1611Tommy AbaziSouthfield Christian133.6
1712Brayden McKayAllen Park Cabrini128.7
1812Matthew Zammit Jr.Marine City Cardinal Mooney127.1
1912Dean MoshierAuburn Hills Oakland Christian124.3
2012Samuel WenzelAustin Catholic123.5

PlaceGradeNameTeamRating
111Ava TeedAllen Park Cabrini130.0
212Erika Van LotonHuron Valley Lutheran120.5
310Eliza KeithAuburn Hills Oakland Christian119.8
412Helana NapiorkowskiAustin Catholic101.2
512Madeleine BargeRochester Hills Lutheran NW98.1
611Leah ZarrilliAuburn Hills Oakland Christian91.9
711Abby RiceRochester Hills Lutheran NW85.6
810Natalie GibbsBirmingham Roeper83.5
99Eleanor ColeLutheran Westland75.1
1012Michaela KurthLutheran Westland75.0
1112Natalie MalczykHuron Valley Lutheran71.9
1210Tess TillmanRoyal Oak Shrine71.6
139Ellee ColeLutheran Westland70.4
1412Julia TroxelRochester Hills Lutheran NW66.4
1511Morgan McNallyAcademy of the Sacred Heart66.3
1611Kendall ZaliwskiRochester Hills Lutheran NW63.5
1712Maura GumRoyal Oak Shrine63.1
1810Rose LoseyRoyal Oak Shrine62.8
1911Karis KeithAuburn Hills Oakland Christian59.0
2011Nicole TeedAllen Park Cabrini57.4
Uncategorized

2022 Mid-Season Regional Projections – Huron Meadows

REGION 26

SUMMER PREVIEW

  • Algonac.. Algonac?
    • Junior David Clemons is back after missing his sophomore year, the new version of him better than ever
    • He’s broken 19:00 twice, most recently a gigantic personal best at Goodells
    • Two of the Muskrat freshmen – Julian Walker and Owen Benidit are performing as to expectations, Jack Reyes is right outside of the projected top-20, but the key additions are David and Griffin Melrose
  • The Dansville score may look similar from July until now, looking deeper, I missed a key addition
    • Sammy Schmidt returns, also after a year hiatus
    • He picks up where he left off in 2020, where he closed the season with a 17:56 at Sharp Park
      • In 2022, he’s been sub-18 in four of his six competitions
  • Since the teams match almost exactly what I had written a few months ago, let’s note two individuals that are having landmark seasons thus far
    • Carmellina Biafora of Bishop Foley slipped under 22:00 for the first time ever at the first CHSL Jamboree, her 4th placing there by far her best finish in a league event
    • Rebekah Hallock has been dropping minutes in almost every instance, starting with a 25:00 at Corunna, trending downwards to a 22:07 at that old Carson City course

PlaceTeamScore1st Boy2nd Boy3rd Boy4th Boy5th Boy6th Boy7th Boy
1Dansville42
2Algonac754131720212537
3Stockbridge772911243148
4Charyl Stockwell Academy888101422343536

PlaceTeamScore1st Girl2nd Girl3rd Girl4th Girl5th Girl6th Girl7th Girl
1University Liggett421261221
2Madison Heights Bishop Foley52371314151929
3Stockbridge56481016182031

PlaceGradeNameTeamRating
110Theodore DavisDansville191.7
212Collin CookStockbridge174.4
312Sammy SchmidtDansville172.3
49Julian WalkerAlgonac168.5
512Max MaderMadison Heights Bishop Foley168.3
610Michael DarlingtonUniversity Liggett166.7
712Joseph KadluboskiDansville158.6
812Raymond RogersCharyl Stockwell Academy158.3
911Ethan WrightStockbridge154.2
1011Anthony UrbaniakCharyl Stockwell Academy153.3
1112Micah BoltonStockbridge145.1
1211Calvin VanhartesveltDansville140.9
1311David ClemonsAlgonac140.8
1412Ray ShumakerCharyl Stockwell Academy129.4
1510Ray LanfearClawson122.7
169Brendan BelandUniversity Liggett120.2
179Owen BeinditAlgonac115.1
1812Taylor AngusNew Haven109.4
1911Gavin ViditoDansville109.3
2011Griffin MelroseAlgonac106.9

PlaceGradeNameTeamRating
110Kerith ShortUniversity Liggett115.6
212Penelope GriffioenUniversity Liggett92.9
311Carmellina BiaforaMadison Heights Bishop Foley76.4
49JayLee ChapmanStockbridge72.4
59Jasmine WalkerAlgonac57.0
610Fiona SierensUniversity Liggett52.6
710Josephine MalyszMadison Heights Bishop Foley51.1
810Rebekah HallockDansville50.4
910Anna RansomStockbridge46.9
1011Savannah RickettsCharyl Stockwell Academy38.8
1110Haylee ByerlyAlgonac35.9
1210Ava VaccaroStockbridge34.6
1311Lovelyn KetepaClawson30.4
149Elizabeth GoughUniversity Liggett28.3
159Eleanor BarnesMadison Heights Bishop Foley14.5
1610Elizabeth BallorMadison Heights Bishop Foley8.1
1711Sophia SchudtMadison Heights Bishop Foley2.4
189Ella HeffnerCharyl Stockwell Academy0.6

REGION 4

SUMMER PREVIEW

  • Ran into a few Ann Arbor Skyline folks at Jackson and my message to them there is the same that I’m writing here – this is the best top four in the State
    • I don’t even care what my numbers say, four under 16:07 at Sharp Park is unreal
    • The question that’ll be ringing in the Eagles ears will be – can they find a fifth?
      • Paul MInock and Aidan Hale both have progressed throughout the year, both are capable of sub-17 on the right day
  • As of this writing now, Brighton’s 4th-7th loom large and will work as displacers
    • Watch out for Tyler Brock as one of them, he’s been near the 18:00 mark for the past few weeks, though a deeper dive reveals some gnarly courses – Mt. Brighton, Possum Hollow, Forest Akers on a hot day
  • Far and away, Dexter is the team of the region, at least in terms of how much they’ve surprised relative to the August writeup
    • A few Dreadnaughts that have stood out for these first five weeks have been Annabel O’Haver and Caleb Snyder
    • Caleb had a pretty darn good freshman year, one you can build upon, and that’s exactly what he’s done
      • Caleb’s last three races have gone 18:08, 17:37, 16:55, indicating he’s found a wave of confidence, I’m curious how far he keeps going
    • In Annabel’s case, you can just compare places between years
      • Her best SEC finish in 2021? 27th at the 2nd Jamboree. 2022? 20th at the first Jamboree
      • Jackson? 47th in 2021, 17th in 2022
      • That Jackson race was easily the best of her career, smashing through the 20:00 mark with a 19:14

PlaceTeamScore1st Boy2nd Boy3rd Boy4th Boy5th Boy6th Boy7th Boy
1Brighton4736914151619
2Ann Arbor Skyline5515711313764

PlaceGradeNameTeamRating
112Nicolas FryAnn Arbor Skyline201.8
211Iain ForrestDavison201.5
311Tyler LangleyBrighton200.7
411Brandon AndersonDexter199.3
511Luke SulimanAnn Arbor Skyline197.7
612Brady MatuszewskiBrighton194.4
712Christopher Van LentAnn Arbor Skyline193.7
812Benjamin SmithHartland192.2
911Luke CampbellBrighton190.5
1012Connor MartinLapeer189.6
1111Mason JettAnn Arbor Skyline187.2
1212Owen AckermanDexter185.8
1312Nathan KaticFenton184.4
1412Dylan WhiteBrighton183.1
1512Brayden MorrisBrighton182.4
1611Bode CooperBrighton178.9
1711Carson CookHartland177.3
1811Noah DeLandHowell175.5
1910Tyler BrockBrighton174.6
2012Jordan LucioGrand Blanc173.9

PlaceGradeNameTeamRating
111Carrigan EberlyBrighton144.1
212Mackenzie WrightHowell141.2
310Alena BlumbergDexter140.2
411Nikki CarothersBrighton137.2
512Natalie KesslerAnn Arbor Skyline134.1
612Caroline VanceAnn Arbor Skyline132.7
712Sophia ThomasGrand Blanc132.1
89Lydia LaMarraBrighton126.6
910Annabel O’HaverDexter123.5
1011Allison MayerAnn Arbor Skyline123.1
1112Stella FarmerBrighton118.9
1210Grace TykockiGrand Blanc118.1
1312Lexie BrownHartland116.9
1411Kate VaritekDexter116.8
1510Ashley SobczynskiHolly116.4
1612Bella GrantSouth Lyon East115.7
1712Amyla EberhartSouth Lyon East115.4
1811Paige McArdleDavison115.4
1910Elle BissettBrighton115.4
2011Megan KowalskiBrighton114.3