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Regional Previews

50 Tickets

Top Tens

Where: Shepherd HS

Word on the street is they’re building fiber throughout the course. Live splits at the mile and 2 mile without having to send Coach Wyatt out there sprinting to grab splits at each spot.

Mostly flat with a slight rise near the 2-mile mark. Tends to run fast, but can get bogged down with precipitation. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Bluejays installed a drying system under the course in the future.

2021 Boys: Freeland (10^th), Flint Powers Catholic (18^th), Clio (21^st)

2021 Girls: Freeland (7^th), Shepherd (12^th), Alma (23^rd)

Freeland will be a tough out, but Shepherd might have the goods to do it. Carley Lynch is back after a sickness took hold of her junior year. As a sophomore, she ran 20:54 here to close the year, and if you project her sophomore ratings into the algorithm, the line between the Falcons and Bluejays becomes very thin. It becomes thinner when they’re adding more girls from their state-placing 4×4. But lurking out there is the Lebron transformation. Alma has always had runners, but to me, they’re a sleeping giant in Division 2. College town, one of the bigger communities in the area. We’ve seen what he’s done at Ithaca, now with more kids coming into his hands?

Back to Freeland though. Upperclassmen such as Paige Kloha and Bella Reed, experienced at being the all-important 4^th-5^th runners. Freshman who will come along and be raring to go by the end of the year. Their top-5 will be tough to crack, it’s very likely they can put all of them in the top-15.

The boys freshman class at Alma is an example of what I was referring to earlier. Larson, Baltierra, Luca Lebron all led their MS team to a TVC championship and a silver medal at MHSAA Zone 5. Unlike lower divisions, the immediate impact isn’t felt so hard by incoming freshman. Will these young Panthers buck that trend? Or will another team loaded with potential, a young Gladwin team steal a bid? One thing I will predict that we can count on: that Flint Powers will solidly perform above expectations. Each and every year, they turn 19:00 kids into 18:00 kids, 17:30 kids into 16:45 kids. And the Chargers are loaded with those sorts yet again.

Top 25 Boys Teams: Freeland (12^th), Flint Powers Catholic (22^nd)

Top 25 Girls Teams: Freeland (10^th), Shepherd (17^th), Alma (22^nd)

Here, I’m writing at least a little anecdote about kids that are in the top-15 but aren’t freshman (Bryce Gross, I see you), in the 50 Tickets (Mary Richmond, your day is coming, TJ and Braydon’s days already have), or on Top 10 teams (Freeland girls). Want to spread love but also not overwork myself. All in all, my estimation is through all these previews, I’ll be writing at least a sentence about 1000+ kids.

Caleb Palmreuter, Gladwin: After a shortened freshman season, completed a full sophomore season. Made the most of it come November with a 16:42 personal best attained at State. Had an exceptional track season, qualifying for State in the 1600m and slipping under 2:00 in the 800m.

Elliott Sirianni, Clio: Came in here last October ranked 13^th, left the course finishing 7^th. A breakout performance, his first journey under 17:00.

David Murphy, Flint Powers Catholic: Spent all of his freshman year above 18:00, a year later, spent every last stinkin’ race under 18:00. Expect further gains, evidenced by his 10:01 in the 3200m this past spring.

Braden Klein, Freeland: Getting under 17:00 for the fourth time, he was an important member of the Falcons’ 10^th place State Finals appearance.

Tyler Heath, Clio: Placed 4^th at MITS in the 800m, but didn’t have the outdoor season he was looking for. In June, began to hit the times he’s capable of and I’m confident that positive momentum will carry over to these upcoming months.

Bryce Husen, Birch Run: His 1600m races at Region 20 and TVC-8 are what dreams are made of. Both were at least 10 seconds better than his previous best, both placed top-5.

Seth Mead, Gladwin: One of the better freshman years you’ve ever heard of. Dropped under 17:00 at Northern Michigan, qualified for State out of Region 10. Shepherd is a bit easier than that nasty Chip Hills course so expect even better theatrics.

Ali Kudmani, Alma: Someone has to play the role of upperclass leader to the volumes of youngsters Alma is moving in. Ali will set a great example, a steady performer who’s stepped up as a state qualifier when it counts.

Aidan Lobsinger, Flint Powers Catholic: As a sophomore, Aidan wasn’t even a part of Powers’ varsity squad in championship season. As a junior, the important 5^th man.

Nolan Longuski, Shepherd: Next in the line of Cahoon-built grinders? As a freshman, dropped 17’s on three occasions, the most important of which was here.

Owen Fennelly, Saginaw Swan Valley: Owen’s cross times and ratings leave him off this list. His track times affirmatively place him on. 10:28 to close a spring full of quality performances in the 3200m.

Ariel Warner, Shepherd: Based on the marks (2:19/5:13) from her spring track campaign, primed for an excellent senior season. Perhaps a darkhorse candidate to bust into that top-10 at State?

Ezgi Kurt, Alma: Interspersed with many efforts in the 20’s, there were signs. A 19:16 at Scottie, a 19:26 at State. During May, Ezgi was able to find a bit more steadiness, running 2:30’s and 5:30’s meet after meet.

Jolie Fisher, Shepherd: This speedster has so much range. Has been in the low-20’s each of the past two years, has also clinched an All-State and a State title with her clutch 3^rd leg on the 4×4.

Ava Boggs, Flint Kearsley: When she’s on, she’s really on. And she was on at the tail end of the ’21 season. Personal bests at both Regional and State.

Elle Himebaugh, Shepherd: Don’t let her incredible showing at the Isabella County Fair distract you from the fact that she’s dropped 4(!) minutes from her personal best over the course of her career.

Alexcis Parker, Flint Powers Catholic: All-State honorable mention on the hardwood, sub-21 performer on the cross country course. No doubt this great sport gives her endurance for her tenacity come winter.

Aubrey Keeler, Clio: Each year, she starts a little slow but finishes with a fury. Two straight state qualifiers and on the cusp of grasping the 19’s.

Jenna Overla, Alma: Mega consistent performer for Alma’s state qualifying squad. Her final four meets were all between 21:00 and 21:30.

Regional Previews

50 Tickets

Top Tens

Where: Hess Hathaway

Curiously ran a bit fast for OAA White, but for the other three meets last year, was a consistent -30. There’s a constant stream of hills, two major ones at 600m and halfway are eye-popping, but don’t ignore the gradual rise after the 2-mile mark. The first two are one called the Beautiful Lady, the last one doesn’t have a name, but will separate qualifiers from souls leaving their body. We have a course map and Jacob Tanner’s elevation maps (check them out):

2021 Boys: Pinckney (5^th), Linden (7^th), Cranbrook-Kingswood (28^th)

2021 Girls: Goodrich (10^th), Bloomfield Hills Marian (27^th), Pinckney (22^nd)

Taking a look back at last year’s Summer Preview through Regional Preview, you see a certain team moving up. Running through the beautiful Cranbrook community was a team that slowly worked their way up the ranks. Solomon Kwartowitz was the obvious example, subtracting minutes from his previous best impacts a little at the front. But a greater impact is found in the middle of the pack with kids such as Yija Shan and Bretton Fischer achieving sub-19 when they hadn’t been close to that mark in 2020. And I can’t forget Michael Atsuya coming in clutch, clinching the Cranes state meet bid.

They’ll likely be going up against Goodrich (Pinckney and Linden are just so great and deep) for that third spot. Goodrich is young, consistently bolstered by their great MS program. The Martians move up two 8^th graders that broke 12:00 in pretty much all of their races, tough courses such as Holly included. As with freshman, that could go two ways, a guy like me always hopes for the best and projects the middle. I think they’ll be in the mix for a state qualifying spot as individuals, which will set up one of the better team qualifying battles.

Goodrich’s girls are more than bolstered by their middle school squad. They’ve established one of the better programs in the state and they’re just young, filled to the brim with potential. We saw the beginnings of that in November, where a squad comprised of freshman and sophomores finished 10^th in Division 2. Now you add the Dunn sisters, integral members of a MS team that won titles at Holly, Zone 4, Flint Area (beating dominating Division 1 teams). I’m not saying it’ll happen, but this might be the most serious threat since Petoskey to put a halt into East Grand Rapids’ dominance.

Top 25 Boys: Pinckney (Top 5), Linden (8^th)

Top 25 Girls: Goodrich (Top 5)

Here, I’m writing at least a little anecdote about kids that are in the top-15 but aren’t freshman (Goodrich boys), in the 50 Tickets (Solomon and Kyle), or on Top 10 teams (wow, Pinckney, Goodrich, and Linden are loaded). Want to spread love but also not overwork myself. All in all, my estimation is through all these previews, I’ll be writing at least a sentence about 1000+ kids.

Nolan Pinion, Lake Fenton: October brought about a new person. Four of his final races were in the 16’s (and let’s be honest, his 18:06 here was equivalent to a sub-17). Nolan wasn’t stopped there, breaking 10:00 in track.

Wade Robinson, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep: Caught my eye in 2020 as a freshman when he ran with the Stoney boys for much of their dual. He’s accomplished so much since, twice top-30 in Oakland County, two top-10’s here in Region 16.

Cooper Grzeskowiak, Goodrich: Could be leading a young Goodrich squad to an appearance in November. With his great experience here, crossing the tape in 8^th after being projected 12^th, the young Martians will have great inspiration to follow.

Nik Shilling, Ortonville Brandon: Seriously established himself as an 800m this past spring, capturing 12^th place in Oakland County with a time of 2:01.

Zoe Hoke, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep: 5:18 in the 1600m as a freshman gave us wonder as to what Zoe could do on the grass. She more than proved herself this past fall, breaking 20:00 three times, the last of which, a personal best at State.

Cecelia Thorington, Pinckney: Didn’t capture the regional crown as she did in 2020, but grabbed an SEC White trophy instead. Furthered her progression in the 800m this past spring, lowering her best to 2:26.

Abby Walton, Bloomfield Hills Marian: Her 19:58 at State after a season in the high-20’s and 21’s gives a hint to her potential. Another season learning from Coach Pratt could bring out her full potential.

Sophie Endrud, Detroit Country Day: Three-time runner up here. Is perennially underrated but always brings it at the end of the season. Especially in 2020, where she placed 12^th at D2 State.

Maria Nunning, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep: Once October rolled around, this freshman hit her stride. 20:15 at Gabriel Richard, 20:04 at Northern Michigan, 9^th place here.

Zaryah Griffin, Pinckney: Has qualified for State each of the past two years, and in each of those years, has narrowly missed sub-20. Is this the breakthrough year?

Brigit Foley, Wixom St. Catherine: Her late season ascent is where it’s at. After hovering above 21:00 for much of the season, she busted out a 20:06 at State.

Ava Fahrenkopf, Linden: Knocked almost 2:00 off her freshman best, but most important of all, got to compete on the Eagles team at MIS.

50 Tickets

Regional Previews

Top Tens

• Many on these lists achieved state-level success last fall, usually an All-State bid or top placing at Regionals, but not Clara
• Her season was on that path, full of mid-18’s, on the road to continuing the legacy she established as a freshman, but was unfortunately cut short due to injury
• That freshman year was among the best you’ll see: sub-18, Top-10 in Division 1 XC, 10:32 on the track, Regional XC victory
• The journey back has been gradual, but we’ve been able to see signs that she’s returning to her previous great form
  • Sub-11:00 in the 3200m came at three points throughout the season, showing those efforts were no fluke
  • By mid-May, she had run 5:02 in the 1600m, my guess is if she ran that fresh in June, she would have been sub-5
• And how could I forget? The TRIATHLONS
  • You’ll have to excuse me, I’m well-versed in finding running results, triathlon not so much
  • 6^th at Junior Americas, 6^th at Flatland, 2^nd at Tri Monroe
  • I don’t know much, but a 19:54 after swimming and cycling seems pretty dang good
• Anyhow, it’s been a journey back, sometimes the slower the better, the more appreciative we’ll be when Clara is back on stage in Brooklyn come fall

Grade	Name	Time	Rating	Meet	Course	Date
10	Clara James-Heer	18:59.7	146.4	Ottawa Hills	Riverside Park	17-Sep
10	Clara James-Heer	18:32.8	143.1	OK White 2	Riverside Park	22-Sep
10	Clara James-Heer	18:37.2	148.9	Cougar Falcon	Gainey Fields	25-Sep
10	Clara James-Heer	18:31.9	148.4	Bluejay	Shepherd HS	2-Oct
10	Clara James-Heer	19:21.2	136.9	Portage	Portage West MS	9-Oct

Grade	Name	Rating	Meet	Course	Date
9	Clara James-Heer	152.4	OK White (GF)	Gainey Fields	16-Sep
9	Clara James-Heer	154.6	Ottawa Hills	Riverside Park	18-Sep
9	Clara James-Heer	154.3	OK White 2	Lowell HS	23-Sep
9	Clara James-Heer	158.8	Cougar Falcon	Gainey Fields	26-Sep
9	Clara James-Heer	159.3	Allendale Falcon	Allendale HS	3-Oct
9	Clara James-Heer	154.9	Bengals	Riverside Park	9-Oct
9	Clara James-Heer	149.4	OK White Championship	Byron Center West MS	14-Oct
9	Clara James-Heer	149.0	PR 2	Cedar Springs ES	24-Oct
9	Clara James-Heer	152.2	D1 Reg 1	Buckley HS	31-Oct
9	Clara James-Heer	157.7	D1 State	MIS	6-Nov

• The one major exception
• Everyone knows (or should know) that these rankings are all numbers
  • XC ratings, projected improvements based on past runners, track times converted to future XC ratings – these lists are all formulas
• But Thomas throws a wrench into all those – where do you put a kid that couldn’t break 17:00 in the fall, but runs 4:12 as a sophomore (which would be a state record if not for Seth Norder and Brendan Herger)?
• I believe this is the best spot and I’m confident those below and above would agree
• If you followed Thomas’s meteoric rise, you know his past and story, his first block of consistent training was this winter and spring, the times just kept rolling
  • First it was a 4:39 indoors in January, then sub-10 in early February, then 4:24, all following a linear progression that kept going until he reached 4:12/9:19
• What I found astounding was looking at Thomas’s times as a freshman, a true show of how far he’s come, only breaking 20:00 once
• The atmosphere in Anchor Bay is tremendous, no doubt spurred by Tom’s jaw-dropping performances
  • But from afar, I can tell it’s drawn more from the camaraderie as a team – and in a few weeks we’ll see how much Tom and the Tars can throw a wrench into the Macomb County traditional standings

Grade	Name	Time	Rating	Meet	Course	Date
10	Thomas Westphal	17:58.4	164.5	Anchor Bay EB	Anchor Bay HS	2-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	17:26.7	173.8	Muskrat Classic	Algonac HS	11-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	18:22.0	164.0	MAC White 1	Port Huron Central MS	14-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	18:08.7	165.1	Spartan	Forest Akers	17-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	18:05.5	169.8	Cleverley Friday Night	Anchor Bay HS	24-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	17:50.0	165.7	MAC White 2	Warren Mott HS	28-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	17:29.9	170.7	MAC Division	Metro Beach	5-Oct
10	Thomas Westphal	17:45.5	172.2	Macomb County	Freedom Hill	16-Oct
10	Thomas Westphal	18:47.3	172.6	9 Anchor Bay	Anchor Bay HS	29-Oct

Grade	Name	Rating	Meet	Course	Date
9	Thomas Westphal	112.7	MAC White	Port Huron MS	15-Sep
9	Thomas Westphal	98.5	Macomb County	Freedom Hill	9-Oct
9	Thomas Westphal	114.0	MAC White Division	Metro Beach	15-Oct