Championship Season continues on, this time to the tune of more County Championships and Greater Lansing.
I’ve been keeping this idea in my back pocket. It’s not necessarily my idea, just something I’ve wanted to do for a while. A Monte Carlo Simulation. This guy harkens back to my poker playing days, paying for college by learning the odds for various hand scenarios. During the spring, I worked on a few for track, though pulling data from athletic.net is tiring. Pulling data that I already have in a database is much easier.
Anyhow, a Monte Carlo simulation pertaining to cross country ratings in layman’s terms is this: Given an average speed rating, standard deviation, and variance of those numbers, random ratings are generated for each runner in a race. One can run as many race simulations as they dream possible. From there, the average place can be determined, as can the average score. One can determine a runner’s odds for winning/placing, a teams odds for those same honors. This should control and better analyze teams/runners that are either highly polarizing or extremely consistent.
For Macomb County’s sake, I ran 100 simulations, for State I may run 10,000. I just performed Macomb County as a trial run for the Upper Peninsula preview. The other meets are just by my standard (maybe soon to be extinct) method of sorting and scoring by a runner’s ranking.
I understand some of these meets have teams in separate divisions, but it appears that each meet has exactly one varsity race per gender, so I listed these as if they’re one singular race. They’re cut off at the top ~25 of individuals (except for Macomb, so that Glenn Craze can compare my figures vs. his – ALSO WHERE IS THE MACOMB COUNTY PREDICTION CONTEST?) and the top ~90% of teams, I’m not gonna predict a team finishes last (except for State, in which you should be proud that you at least qualified).
Have fun with these! Use ’em as a boost of confidence or added motivation, but remember I’m rooting for all your championship success.
MACOMB COUNTY
Boys
Place
Team
Avg. Score
1
Romeo
52
2
Utica
83
3
Fraser
109
4
Macomb Dakota
119
5
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
134
6
Utica Eisenhower
162
7
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
186
8
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
197
9
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley
269
10
Macomb Lutheran North
288
11
Armada
300
12
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
356
13
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
356
14
Warren Cousino
386
15
Sterling Heights Stevenson
395
16
Utica Ford
399
17
Richmond
504
18
Warren Woods Tower
543
19
Warren Mott
588
20
Warren DeLaSalle
589
Team
Win %
Top 3 %
Romeo
100
100
Utica
100
Fraser
73
Macomb Dakota
24
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
3
Rank
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Trent McFarland
Utica
1.58
2
11
Thomas Westphal
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
1.68
3
11
Connor Clor
Romeo
3.78
4
11
Vincent Guaresimo
Romeo
3.81
5
12
Justin Roose
Fraser
5.39
6
12
Camden Khon
Armada
7.23
7
12
Jack Mathers
Macomb Dakota
8.17
8
11
Tyler Donovan
Fraser
9.12
9
11
Dylan Penberthy
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
9.39
10
9
Lance Edghill
Fraser
11.96
11
12
Jacob Maurer
Utica Eisenhower
12.38
12
11
Ethan Muraszewski
Utica
12.40
13
11
Carter Fox
Macomb Dakota
15.23
14
11
Tyler Brothers
Utica Eisenhower
15.89
15
11
Zachary Rubicz
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
15.96
16
11
Brandon Penberthy
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
16.43
17
12
Derrian Kumfer
Romeo
16.68
18
12
Eli Hullinger
Romeo
18.28
19
11
Bryce Goodsell
Romeo
18.68
20
11
Michael Magnoli
Romeo
19.13
21
9
Harper Wesley
Utica
21.59
22
11
Jack DeWaele
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley
21.71
23
11
Danny Boyd
Utica
22.97
24
11
Simon Davis
Macomb Dakota
25.37
25
12
Logan Davis
Utica
25.94
26
10
Luke Morehouse
Utica
27.13
27
10
Owen Gould
Romeo
27.16
28
11
Aidan Leslie
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
28.14
29
12
Carter Rodzik
Utica Eisenhower
28.40
30
12
Robert Galan
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
28.83
31
12
Ben Puzzuoli
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
29.68
32
12
Ryan Hall
Utica
31.86
33
12
Carson Gilbertson
Macomb Dakota
33.71
34
11
Brewer Snay
Macomb Lutheran North
34.88
35
12
Cameron Sherrill
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
36.23
36
12
Riley Andrews
Armada
37.97
37
10
Colton Howell
Macomb Dakota
38.12
38
9
Eric DeWaele
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley
38.75
39
10
Aidan Daly
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
38.96
40
12
Emmanuel Baranyk
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
39.05
Girls
Place
Team
Avg. Score
1
Romeo
37
2
Utica
76
3
Macomb Dakota
93
4
Fraser
146
5
Warren Regina
179
6
Utica Eisenhower
195
7
Armada
207
8
Macomb Lutheran North
230
9
Richmond
298
10
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
338
11
Warren Woods Tower
358
12
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley
367
13
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
372
14
Utica Ford
379
15
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
386
16
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
411
17
Sterling Heights Stevenson
414
18
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
458
19
Warren Cousino
511
20
Lake Shore St. Clair Shores
561
Team
Win %
Top 3 %
Romeo
98
100
Utica
100
Macomb Dakota
100
I hope I don’t have to eat crow on this one.
Rank
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Jayden Harberts
Macomb Dakota
2.49
2
12
Madison Clor
Romeo
2.62
3
9
Emmerson Clor
Romeo
3.53
4
10
Violet Hrabovsky
Romeo
5.38
5
11
Addison Johnson
Utica
5.93
6
10
Grace Grupido
Fraser
6.31
7
10
Brooklyn Khon
Armada
7.97
8
12
Ava LaMilza
Macomb Dakota
9.85
9
9
Siene Muraszewski
Utica
10.08
10
12
Isabella Beck
Utica Eisenhower
10.98
11
9
Natalia Guaresimo
Romeo
11.54
12
11
Brianna Albers
Richmond
14.71
13
12
Meagan Verellen
Utica
14.80
14
12
AnnDee Geddes
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
15.23
15
10
Elizabeth Ambroggio
Warren Regina
16.07
16
11
Kennedy Roskopp
Warren Regina
16.09
17
12
Lindsay Harvey
Macomb Dakota
17.79
18
12
Anne May
Macomb Lutheran North
20.81
19
12
Ava Rawley
Utica
21.78
20
11
Gracie Youngblood
Romeo
22.20
21
10
Charlotte Long
Utica Eisenhower
22.22
22
12
Helana Napiorkowski
Austin Catholic
22.66
23
11
Lauren Thomas
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
23.03
24
11
Remi Flanz
Fraser
23.57
25
9
Lidia Clancy
Macomb Dakota
23.63
26
10
Olivia Purdy
Romeo
24.44
27
10
Shelby Stabile
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
25.28
28
12
Abby Fifield
Utica
28.35
29
12
Olivia Ebel
Macomb Lutheran North
30.38
30
12
Grace Wessel
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
30.97
31
10
Norah Lesner
Utica
34.10
32
12
Taliyah Dawson
Warren Woods Tower
34.44
33
12
Anna Holloway
Fraser
34.78
34
10
Natalie Lentine
Warren Regina
37.08
35
11
Darrah Mackenzie
Armada
39.48
36
12
Natalie Langkam
Utica Eisenhower
39.68
37
10
Luciana Rodriguez
Fraser
40.41
38
11
Tori Trumper
Macomb Dakota
41.54
39
12
Avery Saunder
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
42.71
40
11
Lauren Koski
Macomb Lutheran North
42.90
You may notice that the average places and the average scores may not add up. Romeo’s girls are a prime example. Running simulations emits a whole range of scenarios for scores. For the Bulldogs who seem to have two very good candidates for a 5th girl, odds are that one will have a good day. Given that only one has to have a good day for her score to count, their average score comes out to be lower than the predicted places of Youngblood and Purdy.
Portage, Oakland County, and Wayne County have come and past. I didn’t think it possible, but we learned a ton more about the D2 boys race and there was a decent amount of movement caused by the other lower division races. Given that it’s one weekend in an almost two month long season, one race has a minor affect on these. Coupled with a great county/league/regional, that’s where we’ll know if the performances stick.
Handling 12,000+ athletes, some rules are needed. I wish I had the time, brainpower, and omniscience to know every specific scenario, but I don’t. Here’s how I go about creating these:
The HOBBS KESSLER RULE is still in place, where I eliminate the lower third of a runner’s ratings. The reason for this is the assumption that an athlete will have races that they don’t go to the well, for many, these are jamborees or early season invites
For a runner that has 10 rated races, I eliminate 3; 7 rated races, I eliminate 2, so on and so forth
The INJURY RULE is also in place, where if an athlete doesn’t have any rated races in a month, that runner is taken out of the rankings (both team and individual)
I’m more conservative on this than most, I realize that ACTs, sickness, family commitments, soccer kickball* are all present
Of course, if their coach, their parent, or that athlete wants to let me know that they’re injured or returning, I will make an exception. But only those relations, I’ve been burned too often by outsiders.
This protects against a team like Lumen Christi’s girls, their 3rd girl out for Portage, from moving down
These rankings are cumulative, with more recent meets given greater weight
As they contain the entire season, they will tend to underrate runners that have been on fire recently, but also protect those who had a subpar performance in the last few meets
All Lower Peninsula meets linked here have been taken into account, all Upper Peninsula meets posted to athletic.net are included (even the ones this week!)
These are for FUN, even if you disagree with these, don’t tear anyone down in the process
If you do, I will make you work the Free Press Expo on the hardest concrete floor in existence
Looking forward to another weekend of great performances and learning about our outstanding teams!
Frankfort Boys: At the most, these ratings have covered three of Frankfort’s races, as a result, the data is a bit thin. Throw out the data though, these Panthers had a day! Six of their top seven raced to a personal best, generating a 5th place finish for this Lake Michigan crew.
Rochester Hills Lutheran NW Girls: As any team has (the Michigan XC cold season is in top form), the Crusaders have found a bit of adversity in this mid-season. What’s impressive is the way they’ve responded. At Portage, their entire outfit finished in a PB or SB (Rita Luhring, almost 5 minutes better than her 2021 best), those efforts bringing forth a 2nd place D4 finish. And their secret weapon is still lurking…
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Change
1
The Potter’s House
31
52
0
2
Petoskey St. Michael
28
184
0
3
Harbor Springs
28
255
0
4
Hillsdale Academy
34
279
0
5
Johannesburg-Lewiston
28
309
0
6
Adrian Lenawee Christian
34
321
0
7
Mason County Eastern
29
346
0
8
Three Oaks River Valley
31
370
-1
9
Whitmore Lake
33
375
1
10
Frankfort
29
414
-7
11
Concord
32
542
1
12
Ubly
35
573
1
13
Kalamazoo Hackett
32
592
1
14
Carson City-Crystal
33
619
1
15
Marine City Cardinal Mooney
36
629
1
16
Brown City
35
644
0
17
Royal Oak Shrine
36
667
2
18
Battle Creek St. Philip
32
687
-1
19
Mayville
35
698
1
20
Muskegon Catholic Central
31
731
0
21
Novi Christian Academy
33
743
-2
22
Dryden
35
767
1
23
Breckenridge
30
775
-1
24
Morenci
34
777
2
25
East Jackson
34
791
0
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Change
1
Johannesburg-Lewiston
28
146
0
2
Whitmore Lake
33
171
0
3
Hillsdale Academy
34
193
-1
4
Harbor Springs
28
201
1
5
Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
36
369
-1
6
Unionville-Sebewaing
35
392
1
7
Kingston
35
422
0
8
Ubly
35
450
-1
9
Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
36
497
1
10
Buckley
29
544
-2
11
Libertas Christian
31
556
1
12
Grand Traverse Academy
29
567
-4
13
Royal Oak Shrine
36
573
0
14
Leland
29
580
0
15
Breckenridge
30
581
0
16
Kalamazoo Hackett
32
583
-4
17
The Potter’s House
31
591
0
18
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
31
626
0
19
Farwell
30
634
0
20
Beal City
30
647
9
21
Pittsford
34
671
0
22
Lake Leelanau St. Mary
29
712
0
23
Allen Park Cabrini
36
748
-1
24
Clarkston Everest Collegiate
33
759
1
25
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
30
771
0
Hanover-Horton Boys: In a D3 race at Portage West that featured 4 of the top-10 boys teams, H-H firmly established themselves as a candidate for the #2 spot. Austin Brown, in particular, has been peaking at the right time, racing back-to-back 16:21s the past two weeks. Up front, Rogan Melling has been finding his usual late season form, and I love the steadiness of their youth on the back end.
Monroe St. Mary CC Girls: I have to drop wayyyy down to the #13 spot to find much change, much uprising. The Kestrels (one of the better nicknames out there) took their squad to Portage, running against much competition they’re not used to seeing. And they may have learned a bit about themselves in the process, finishing ahead of much of the D3 competition they might see in a few weeks. Freshman Bella LaFountain is a candidate for the All-State accolades, but don’t discount the major point drivers. Girls such as Samantha LaFountain, Maureen Smith, Leona Knudsen, and Claire Lisker are all competing at their highest levels this fall.
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Change
1
Hart
20
144
0
2
Hanover-Horton
23
266
-1
3
Traverse City St. Francis
19
277
1
4
Saranac
21
333
0
5
Reed City
20
404
0
6
Pewamo-Westphalia
24
429
0
7
St. Louis
25
477
0
8
Benzie Central
20
530
0
9
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
21
572
-1
10
Ithaca
24
582
1
11
Stanton Central Montcalm
21
598
0
12
Elk Rapids
19
671
-1
13
Clare
19
687
1
14
Leslie
23
736
-1
15
Saugatuck
22
760
1
16
Caro
25
779
-1
17
Jonesville
23
781
-9
18
Erie Mason
27
811
-1
19
Bath
24
816
3
20
Dansville
26
857
2
21
Monroe St. Mary CC
27
864
0
22
Sanford-Meridian
25
876
2
23
Buchanan
22
901
-1
24
Hudson
23
906
-7
25
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
21
919
2
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Change
1
Traverse City St. Francis
19
203
0
2
Pewamo-Westphalia
24
216
0
3
Jackson Lumen Christi
23
227
0
4
Hart
20
252
0
5
Elk Rapids
19
313
0
6
Lansing Catholic
24
345
0
7
Caro
25
346
0
8
Leslie
23
396
0
9
Benzie Central
20
421
0
10
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
21
460
0
11
Onsted
23
463
0
12
Kalamazoo Christian
22
522
0
13
Monroe St. Mary CC
27
587
-2
14
Stanton Central Montcalm
21
629
-2
15
Charlevoix
19
635
2
16
Kent City
21
654
2
17
Ithaca
24
688
0
18
Blissfield
27
695
-5
19
Remus Chippewa Hills
20
754
-3
20
Schoolcraft
22
805
2
21
Clinton
27
819
1
22
Grand Rapids West Catholic
21
829
-5
23
Laingsburg
24
843
-2
24
Sandusky
25
844
5
25
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
21
853
1
Pinckney Boys: Two races into his season, Ben Richards has had an immediate impact on the Pirates’ fortunes. At the initial SEC Jamboree, Pinckney finished behind Chelsea and Adrian. September 28th, the second Jamboree, Ben’s presence lifted his team above Adrian. His second time to the starting line this year, a 35 second+ season best at Portage, he aided his team in lifting up a trophy.
Williamston Girls: Williamston was pegged a top-10 team to begin the year and they haven’t reached that level… yet. One can easily extrapolate and peek at the rankings from week to week, oh yeah, they’re getting there. The past three jamborees/invites, they’ve won. Five of their top seven had their highest rating of the season at CAAC Red 2. Greater Lansing is on the docket this weekend, a quick look at the teams and I wouldn’t be surprised if these Hornets are top-3 amongst all competition.
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Change
1
East Grand Rapids
12
195
0
2
Chelsea
18
198
0
3
Pinckney
16
229
-2
4
Forest Hills Eastern
12
248
1
5
Adrian
18
264
1
6
Grand Rapids Christian
11
328
0
7
Otsego
13
375
0
8
Dearborn Divine Child
18
432
0
9
St. Johns
14
548
0
10
Freeland
15
604
0
11
Petoskey
10
657
-4
12
St. Clair
17
669
-1
13
Sparta
10
692
2
14
Allendale
11
700
0
15
Holland Christian
11
729
3
16
Wayland Union
12
801
0
17
Battle Creek Harper Creek
12
831
-18
18
Linden
16
834
0
19
Fremont
10
835
-3
20
Hamilton
11
851
-3
21
Clio
15
856
1
22
Spring Lake
11
858
5
23
Yale
17
860
2
24
Frankenmuth
15
913
5
25
New Boston Huron
18
932
-1
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Change
1
East Grand Rapids
12
115
0
2
Otsego
13
133
0
3
Grand Rapids Christian
11
164
0
4
Spring Lake
11
313
-2
5
Zeeland East
11
344
1
6
St. Joseph
13
351
-1
7
Forest Hills Eastern
12
355
2
8
Goodrich
16
422
0
9
Alma
15
519
0
10
St. Johns
14
534
0
11
Williamston
14
570
-6
12
Grand Rapids South Christian
12
591
-1
13
GR West Michigan Aviation
12
591
-2
14
DeWitt
14
594
3
15
Frankenmuth
15
597
3
16
Monroe Jefferson
18
598
0
17
Hudsonville Unity Christian
11
618
3
18
Petoskey
10
706
-1
19
Owosso
14
713
1
20
Shepherd
15
720
0
21
Tecumseh
18
723
-4
22
Freeland
15
784
1
23
Adrian
18
793
-1
24
Chelsea
18
796
1
25
Sparta
10
800
-1
Saline Boys: Well, the Hornets were the shocker of the D1 Boys race at Portage. Jason Whitton was mentioned in the writeup, emitting a huge PB on Saturday. Sam Jackson and Truman Johnson did their thing up front, but the real points were saved by their 4th, 5th, and 6th boys. Andrew McNally, Elijah Routson, and Shane Pitcher all set PB’s and had their best (or very close) rating of the season. With those three stepping up, the Hornets captured 2nd place, confirming they’re the favorite for the SEC Red, Region 5, and possibly a podium spot at State.
Oxford Girls: In order to stave off tough, deep teams such as Walled Lake Northern or Stoney Creek, the Wildcats needed a few girls to raise their performances. Coming in right near that 21:00 was a whole gaggle of them: Addison Lester, Aubrey Mery, Natalie Bales, and Jamie Patterson. The first three had never run at Possum Hollow on the varsity stage and Jamie grabbed a second consecutive top-50 finish. If those four can work together down the stretch, Oxford will be in a great spot.
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Change
1
Northville
6
184
0
2
Grand Haven
1
344
0
3
Traverse City Central
2
347
-1
4
Brighton
4
371
1
5
Plymouth
6
389
0
6
Portage Central
3
409
0
7
Clarkston
8
459
-2
8
Romeo
9
502
0
9
Ann Arbor Skyline
4
511
2
10
Saline
5
529
-2
11
Forest Hills Central
3
539
0
12
Detroit Catholic Central
7
548
2
13
Troy
8
570
0
14
Ann Arbor Pioneer
5
612
-2
15
Port Huron Northern
9
644
1
16
Zeeland West
1
686
1
17
White Lake Lakeland
7
731
0
18
Kalamazoo Central
3
745
-8
19
Jenison
1
795
-2
20
Oxford
8
816
1
21
Utica
8
827
1
22
Walled Lake Northern
7
830
4
23
Salem
6
833
1
24
Rockford
1
898
1
25
Caledonia
3
914
1
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Change
1
Ann Arbor Pioneer
5
166
0
2
Holland West Ottawa
1
185
0
3
Brighton
4
302
0
4
Saline
5
351
-1
5
Romeo
9
401
1
6
Okemos
2
437
0
7
Ann Arbor Skyline
4
483
0
8
Oxford
8
539
-2
9
Northville
6
542
1
10
Walled Lake Northern
7
542
1
11
Traverse City West
2
552
-2
12
Jenison
1
581
-2
13
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
9
625
1
14
Macomb Dakota
9
628
3
15
Traverse City Central
2
647
0
16
Grand Haven
1
681
-2
17
H.H. Dow
2
688
0
18
Dexter
4
729
2
19
Rockford
1
735
-6
20
Forest Hills Central
3
794
-2
21
Rochester
8
808
1
22
Troy
8
821
-1
23
Canton
6
823
2
24
Forest Hills Northern
3
852
-4
25
Lowell
3
853
6
Engadine Boys: Having the slightest bit of time, I was able to go back and find Upper Peninsula results that I had missed. These Engadine boys have staked their claim to the EUP Conference title (it doesn’t appear there’s another jamboree). Their firepower is up front, with a range of ages. Senior Conrad Speiles and freshman Duane Krenek have both placed in the top-10 at both EUP meetings.
Hancock Girls: It don’t matter where it’s at in the race, if you’re tied and your 6th is ahead of their 6th, you win. Hancock’s Thea Tocquin was ahead of Calumet’s contributor, and the Bulldogs grabbed 2nd place at last week’s Westwood Invite (that featured four of the UP’s top ten crews).
Gracy Walker, Kingston: When I say Region 35 preview, I mean it. Kingston, Ubly, and Unionville-Sebewaing are all ranked in the top 10 on the girls side of things. If Gracy can replicate this performance, watch out, Kingston will 100% be a candidate to move up. It was her first sub-21 effort of the year, a season best by 20+ seconds, and she finished ahead of many athletes from the previously mentioned rivals.
Brandon Kohler, Brown City: The Green Devils have been a bit of a surprise team in D4, the last few weeks coming in with rankings in the high teens. That’s definitely due to seniors such as Brandon, who broke 19:00 for the first time earlier this year and today, came in with his 2nd fastest mark ever.
