I wrote a bunch in the pole vault preview, describing the processes behind this endeavor. You should read it! I ain’t writing it again. But seriously, we’re looking at a season’s worth of performances, using those to determine odds of placing in each place, then combining those odds to develop an idea of who will place where and the likelihood of each scenario.
I stated in that preview that I asked coaches to shoutout athletes that had outperformed expectations at Regionals or overcame adversity throughout the year to throw in June. A few are featured below.
Division Four
Boys Shot Put
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Zane Forist
Carson City-Crystal
10.00
Todd Nanasy
Morrice
4.63
Trey Nieman
Morenci
4.32
Chris Whitehead
Beal City
3.58
Joel Bradley
White Cloud
2.41
John Morrison
Everest Collegiate
2.37
Jace Silverthorn
White Cloud
2.31
Brett McGowen
Morrice
1.83
Garner Akin
Fulton
1.74
Bryce Carr
Flint Beecher
1.66
Taiden Robinson
Carson City-Crystal
1.10
Matthew Oswald
Beal City
0.92
Jack Stoneman
Pentwater
0.61
Name
Team
All-State %
Zane Forist
Carson City-Crystal
100
Todd Nanasy
Morrice
93
Trey Nieman
Morenci
86
Chris Whitehead
Beal City
69
Jace Silverthorn
White Cloud
64
Joel Bradley
White Cloud
63
Brett McGowen
Morrice
58
John Morrison
Everest Collegiate
41
Garner Akin
Fulton
41
Matthew Oswald
Beal City
35
Bryce Carr
Flint Beecher
34
Taiden Robinson
Carson City-Crystal
32
Jack Stoneman
Pentwater
22
Seth Miller
White Pigeon
14
Nolan VanHorn
Gobles
11
Nick Wayne
Britton Deerfield
10
Connor Palmer
Deckerville
10
Name
Team
Win %
Zane Forist
Carson City-Crystal
100
Boys Discus
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Zane Forist
Carson City-Crystal
10.00
Todd Nanasy
Morrice
5.69
Trey Nieman
Morenci
3.66
Chris Whitehead
Beal City
3.26
Joel Bradley
White Cloud
2.90
Matthew Oswald
Beal City
1.98
Nick Wayne
Britton Deerfield
1.78
KJ Scott
Addison
1.41
Kylis Fletcher
Beal City
1.05
Caleb Glase
Maple City Glen Lake
1.02
Taiden Robinson
Carson City-Crystal
0.99
Connor Alcock
Britton Deerfield
0.84
Reid Stilson
Kalamazoo Christian
0.82
Dominic Scharer
Hillsdale Academy
0.80
Connor Palmer
Deckerville
0.77
Dakota Kohn
Petersburg Summerfield
0.60
Name
Team
All-State %
Zane Forist
Carson City-Crystal
100
Todd Nanasy
Morrice
88
Trey Nieman
Morenci
79
Chris Whitehead
Beal City
72
Joel Bradley
White Cloud
68
Nick Wayne
Britton Deerfield
52
Matthew Oswald
Beal City
48
KJ Scott
Addison
44
Caleb Glase
Maple City Glen Lake
34
Taiden Robinson
Carson City-Crystal
31
Connor Palmer
Deckerville
30
Kylis Fletcher
Beal City
28
Connor Alcock
Britton Deerfield
22
Dominic Scharer
Hillsdale Academy
20
Dakota Kohn
Petersburg Summerfield
19
Reid Stilson
Kalamazoo Christian
16
Jace Silverthorn
White Cloud
15
Wyatt Blashfield
Tekonsha
13
Name
Team
Win %
Zane Forist
Carson City-Crystal
100
Girls Shot Put
Tess Van Dyk is the 2-time Regional Champ in the Shot and Disc. For a D4 girl, she stacks up well compared to the lower divisions. Ranked #16 in the State in the Discus and #3 in the Shot Put. Her 42’9 Shot Put is the school record and she has sights on the Discus record as well.
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Tess Van Dyk
Kalamazoo Christian
9.88
Corinna Hernandez
Mason County Eastern
6.65
Harley Bear
Marion
3.77
Natalie Wandrie
Indian River Inland Lakes
3.68
Ugochi Ike
Royal Oak Shrine
2.59
Keyara Szymanski
Mendon
1.94
Maddie Wiersema
Muskegon West Mich. Christian
1.89
Kelsey Hansen
Lincoln-Alcona
1.84
Taylor Matthews
Buckley
1.66
Abby Youmans
Athens
1.15
Lily Parker
Marlette
0.78
Abigail Aldrich
Capac
0.67
Name
Team
All-State %
Tess Van Dyk
Kalamazoo Christian
100
Corinna Hernandez
Mason County Eastern
99
Harley Bear
Marion
91
Ugochi Ike
Royal Oak Shrine
83
Natalie Wandrie
Indian River Inland Lakes
64
Kelsey Hansen
Lincoln-Alcona
55
Keyara Szymanski
Mendon
53
Maddie Wiersema
Muskegon West Mich. Christian
42
Abby Youmans
Athens
42
Taylor Matthews
Buckley
36
Lily Parker
Marlette
31
Abigail Aldrich
Capac
21
Havahna DeJongh
Coleman
17
Mariah Kerley
East Jackson
17
Kyla Wiersema
Muskegon West Mich. Christian
14
Emily Stinson
Fulton
13
Emma Dexter
Athens
13
Name
Team
Win %
Tess Van Dyk
Kalamazoo Christian
95
Natalie Wandrie
Indian River Inland Lakes
4
Girls Discus
Breckenridge’s Olivia Valliere isn’t listed here, but her tremendous improvement throughout the season is to be noted. After a few hip injuries derailed her running career, late into last season she experimented with throwing. A 69′ throw early in the year eventually became a 95′ throw at Regionals.
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Tess Van Dyk
Kalamazoo Christian
8.93
Gaby Reeve
White Cloud
5.38
Corinna Hernandez
Mason County Eastern
5.29
Harley Bear
Marion
4.60
Emily Grant
Suttons Bay
3.71
Elli Stender
Gobles
2.70
Natalie Wandre
Indian River Inland Lakes
1.92
Keyara Szymanski
Mendon
1.21
Clarissa Berger
Morenci
1.08
Keslyn Cay
Petersburg Summerfield
0.81
Kyla Wiersema
Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
0.81
Kelsey Hansen
Lincoln-Alcona
0.69
Baily Diehl
Akron-Fairgrove
0.67
Lily Parker
Marlette
0.55
Emily Stinson
Fulton
0.51
Name
Team
All-State %
Tess Van Dyk
Kalamazoo Christian
100
Harley Bear
Marion
94
Gaby Reeve
White Cloud
92
Corinna Hernandez
Mason County Eastern
88
Emily Grant
Suttons Bay
78
Natalie Wandre
Indian River Inland Lakes
69
Elli Stender
Gobles
65
Keyara Szymanski
Mendon
41
Clarissa Berger
Morenci
28
Keslyn Cay
Petersburg Summerfield
27
Baily Diehl
Akron-Fairgrove
26
Kyla Wiersema
Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
25
Kelsey Hansen
Lincoln-Alcona
23
Lily Parker
Marlette
19
Emily Stinson
Fulton
15
Name
Team
Win %
Tess Van Dyk
Kalamazoo Christian
64
Corinna Hernandez
Mason County Eastern
14
Gaby Reeve
White Cloud
11
Emily Grant
Suttons Bay
5
Division Three
Boys Shot Put
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Kellen Kimes
Hart
8.05
Gavin Nurenburg
Pewamo-Westphalia
7.22
Andrew Quinn
Mason County Central
7.14
Brendan Quackenbush
Chesaning
4.90
Connor Herford
Cass City
2.86
Hudson Maddox
Bath
1.84
Chandler Griffiths
Jonesville
1.63
Sparty Skillern
Grayling
0.93
Austin Cole
Byron
0.88
Kyle Kloska
Grand Rapids West Catholic
0.74
Xavier Soss
Adrian Madison
0.64
Name
Team
All-State %
Kellen Kimes
Hart
99
Gavin Nurenburg
Pewamo-Westphalia
99
Brendan Quackenbush
Chesaning
98
Andrew Quinn
Mason County Central
93
Connor Herford
Cass City
78
Hudson Maddox
Bath
61
Chandler Griffiths
Jonesville
44
Xavier Soss
Adrian Madison
39
Sparty Skillern
Grayling
36
Austin Cole
Byron
34
Kyle Kloska
Grand Rapids West Catholic
29
Mason Brodie
Clinton
16
Carter Mayne
Lawton
16
Silas Jancek
Montague
15
Mason Mayne
Lawton
12
Jerrold Atwell
Montrose
11
Name
Team
Win %
Andrew Quinn
Mason County Central
47
Kellen Kimes
Hart
37
Gavin Nurenburg
Pewamo-Westphalia
15
Boys Discus
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Kellen Kimes
Hart
8.52
Gavin Nurenberg
Pewamo-Westphalia
5.33
Cobie Bonds
Coloma
5.28
Logan Cole
Union City
3.79
Caden Ferris
Delton-Kellogg
2.72
Landon Nurenberg
Pewamo-Westphalia
2.09
Bennett VandenBerg
Constantine
1.92
Brendan Quackenbush
Chesaning
1.88
Kyle Kloska
Grand Rapids West Catholic
1.30
Bryce Gardiner
Erie Mason
1.27
Conner Underwood
Watervliet
1.04
Colton Oyervidez
Pigeon-Laker
0.93
Mason Brodie
Clinton
0.87
Sparty Skillern
Grayling
0.87
Name
Team
All-State %
Kellen Kimes
Hart
99
Gavin Nurenberg
Pewamo-Westphalia
99
Logan Cole
Union City
82
Cobie Bonds
Coloma
77
Caden Ferris
Delton-Kellogg
64
Bennett VandenBerg
Constantine
64
Brendan Quackenbush
Chesaning
49
Conner Underwood
Watervliet
48
Bryce Gardiner
Erie Mason
36
Kyle Kloska
Grand Rapids West Catholic
31
Landon Nurenberg
Pewamo-Westphalia
30
Sparty Skillern
Grayling
30
Colton Oyervidez
Pigeon-Laker
22
Mason Brodie
Clinton
21
Noah Bauman
Ottawa Lake-Whiteford
13
Levi Belill
Saginaw Valley Lutheran
10
Name
Team
Win %
Kellen Kimes
Hart
54
Cobie Bonds
Coloma
24
Gavin Nurenberg
Pewamo-Westphalia
11
Girls Shot Put
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Raigen Horsfall
Quincy
7.09
Grace Elliott
Sand Creek
6.41
Sophia Snellenberger
Quincy
5.00
Adyson Nederhood
McBain
4.83
Liathano Ramirez
Benzie Central
3.67
Rylan Finstrom
Grayling
2.55
Emily Carbajal
Sand Creek
2.41
Claire Meacham
Montague
1.71
Brenna McDonald
Schoolcraft
1.36
Adelyn Moore
Caro
0.89
Abby Karst
Reese
0.75
Grace Nemecek
East Jordan
0.65
Caterina Thelen
Constantine
0.63
Name
Team
All-State %
Grace Elliott
Sand Creek
99
Raigen Horsfall
Quincy
99
Adyson Nederhood
McBain
89
Sophia Snellenberger
Quincy
84
Liathano Ramirez
Benzie Central
72
Emily Carbajal
Sand Creek
66
Rylan Finstrom
Grayling
56
Claire Meacham
Montague
52
Brenna McDonald
Schoolcraft
49
Abby Karst
Reese
28
Grace Nemecek
East Jordan
25
Adelyn Moore
Caro
24
Caterina Thelen
Constantine
21
Melanie Moore
Madison Heights Bishop Foley
10
Kyla Jackson
Chesaning
10
Name
Team
Win %
Raigen Horsfall
Quincy
40
Sophia Snellenberger
Quincy
18
Grace Elliott
Sand Creek
14
Adyson Nederhood
McBain
14
Liathano Ramirez
Benzie Central
6
Girls Discus
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Sophia Snellenberger
Quincy
9.88
Raigen Horsfall
Quincy
5.04
Emily Carbajal
Sand Creek
4.46
Rylan Finstrom
Grayling
3.50
Molleigh Rinke
Almont
2.59
Liathano Ramirez
Benzie Central
1.87
Anna Nixon
Perry
1.72
Mary Norris
St. Charles
1.44
Claire Meacham
Montague
1.36
Korah Honig
St. Louis
1.35
Grace Spitzley
Pewamo-Westphalia
0.97
Leah Rohrer
Charlevoix
0.85
Adelyn Moore
Caro
0.81
Taylor Boss
Onsted
0.74
Aleah Sexton
Watervliet
0.68
Kaylee Kopulos
Springport
0.58
Name
Team
All-State %
Sophia Snellenberger
Quincy
99
Emily Carbajal
Sand Creek
88
Raigen Horsfall
Quincy
81
Molleigh Rinke
Almont
75
Rylan Finstrom
Grayling
59
Liathano Ramirez
Benzie Central
52
Korah Honig
St. Louis
49
Claire Meacham
Montague
44
Mary Norris
St. Charles
36
Anna Nixon
Perry
33
Leah Rohrer
Charlevoix
31
Grace Spitzley
Pewamo-Westphalia
30
Aleah Sexton
Watervliet
24
Taylor Boss
Onsted
23
Adelyn Moore
Caro
20
Grace Nyeholt
Grand Rapids West Catholic
14
Brenna McDonald
Schoolcraft
12
Grace Elliott
Sand Creek
12
Kaylee Kopulos
Springport
11
Name
Team
Win %
Sophia Snellenberger
Quincy
94
Rylan Finstrom
Grayling
4
Division Two
Boys Shot Put
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Alex Mansfield
Monroe Jefferson
9.94
Aidan Taylor
Zeeland East
7.65
Connor Williamson
Mason
5.32
Brady Ploucha
Divine Child
4.14
Eagan Tamminga
Hamilton
2.33
Riley Brock
Kingsley
1.45
Carson Noyes
Wayland Union
1.45
Daniel Weatherly
Hastings
1.12
Michael Howey
Alma
1.08
Ryan Shinabery
Hudsonville Unity Christian
0.97
Parker Williams
Zeeland East
0.82
Kyle Smalstig
Marine City
0.77
Name
Team
All-State %
Alex Mansfield
Monroe Jefferson
99
Aidan Taylor
Zeeland East
99
Brady Ploucha
Divine Child
99
Connor Williamson
Mason
97
Eagan Tamminga
Hamilton
65
Riley Brock
Kingsley
47
Michael Howey
Alma
46
Carson Noyes
Wayland Union
42
Daniel Weatherly
Hastings
37
Kyle Smalstig
Marine City
37
Parker Williams
Zeeland East
27
Ryan Shinabery
Hudsonville Unity Christian
26
Dalton DeBeau
Frankenmuth
13
Isaiah Ploucha
Divine Child
13
Evan Gillespie
St. Johns
12
Haidyn Garrison
Richland Gull Lake
10
Name
Team
Win %
Alex Mansfield
Monroe Jefferson
97
Aidan Taylor
Zeeland East
3
Boys Discus
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Alex Mansfield
Monroe Jefferson
7.99
Brady Ploucha
Divine Child
6.57
Connor Williamson
Mason
4.84
Dalton DeBeau
Frankenmuth
4.56
Aidan Taylor
Zeeland East
3.84
Bergen Grochoski
Forest Hills Eastern
2.13
Riley Brock
Kingsley
1.38
Nick Petersdorf
Macomb Lutheran North
1.08
Michael Griffey
Plainwell
0.95
Kai Pennewell
St. Clair
0.95
Cole Hubbell
Dundee
0.89
Jake Cashen
Grand Rapids South Christian
0.86
Noah Simpson
Portland
0.81
Isaiah Ploucha
Divine Child
0.80
Lazslo Arpin
Flint Powers Catholic
0.75
Name
Team
All-State %
Alex Mansfield
Monroe Jefferson
100
Brady Ploucha
Divine Child
99
Connor Williamson
Mason
94
Dalton DeBeau
Frankenmuth
85
Aidan Taylor
Zeeland East
78
Bergen Grochoski
Forest Hills Eastern
51
Riley Brock
Kingsley
43
Nick Petersdorf
Macomb Lutheran North
36
Kai Pennewell
St. Clair
30
Jake Cashen
Grand Rapids South Christian
29
Noah Simpson
Portland
28
Michael Griffey
Plainwell
27
Cole Hubbell
Dundee
27
Isaiah Ploucha
Divine Child
27
Lazslo Arpin
Flint Powers Catholic
22
Gabe Reavey
Whitehall
11
Name
Team
Win %
Alex Mansfield
Monroe Jefferson
42
Brady Ploucha
Divine Child
24
Dalton DeBeau
Frankenmuth
13
Aidan Taylor
Zeeland East
7
Connor Williamson
Mason
6
Girls Shot Put
Name
Team
Avg. Score
RyAnn Rohrer
Ludington
9.66
Paige Westra
Zeeland East
7.17
Janae Hudson
Marysville
3.33
Kaydence Robinson
Eaton Rapids
3.27
Madison Drouin
Otsego
3.22
Hannah Murphy
Saginaw Swan Valley
3.16
Akiyah Ash
Melvindale
2.66
Maelin Hope
Whitehall
2.48
Haley Guerrant
Otsego
1.68
Grace Brenner
Hopkins
0.85
Grace Steffes
Divine Child
0.72
Samara Brinks
Holland Christian
0.49
Name
Team
All-State %
RyAnn Rohrer
Ludington
99
Paige Westra
Zeeland East
99
Kaydence Robinson
Eaton Rapids
88
Hannah Murphy
Saginaw Swan Valley
88
Akiyah Ash
Melvindale
81
Madison Drouin
Otsego
75
Janae Hudson
Marysville
71
Haley Guerrant
Otsego
55
Maelin Hope
Whitehall
45
Grace Steffes
Divine Child
31
Grace Brenner
Hopkins
30
Samara Brinks
Holland Christian
24
Name
Team
Win %
RyAnn Rohrer
Ludington
84
Maelin Hope
Whitehall
8
Paige Westra
Zeeland East
7
Girls Discus
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Janae Hudson
Marysville
7.88
Maelie Hope
Whitehall
6.71
Payton Otto
Olivet
3.81
RyAnn Rohrer
Ludington
3.25
Akiyah Ash
Melvindale
2.55
Haley Guerrant
Otsego
2.36
Madison Drouin
Otsego
2.13
Natalia Pluff
Mason
2.11
Kijana Callwood
Grand Rapids Christian
1.74
Mila Tasma
Hamilton
1.16
Kaydence Richardson
Eaton Rapids
1.13
Sophie Parker
Forest Hills Eastern
0.73
Aliyah Springer
Hamilton
0.59
Brynn Reams
Ionia
0.59
Name
Team
All-State %
Janae Hudson
Marysville
99
Maelie Hope
Whitehall
85
RyAnn Rohrer
Ludington
76
Payton Otto
Olivet
64
Natalia Pluff
Mason
63
Madison Drouin
Otsego
57
Akiyah Ash
Melvindale
55
Haley Guerrant
Otsego
46
Kijana Callwood
Grand Rapids Christian
42
Kaydence Richardson
Eaton Rapids
31
Mila Tasma
Hamilton
29
Aliyah Springer
Hamilton
27
Sophie Parker
Forest Hills Eastern
24
Brynn Reams
Ionia
19
Alyssa Bonanno
Flat Rock
19
Grace Steffes
Divine Child
16
Aysia Yokely
Detroit Country Day
12
Name
Team
Win %
Maelie Hope
Whitehall
44
Janae Hudson
Marysville
36
Payton Otto
Olivet
8
Division One
Boys Shot Put
Gibraltar Carlson’s Ben Przytula is probably underrated here. He started the season throwing in the low 40’s and has progressed to 49’+, good enough to win the Saline Regional.
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
8.60
Kadyn Warner
Traverse City Central
8.02
Tristan Hinkley
Swartz Creek
5.70
Merrick Hocking
Midland
3.46
Brendan Schanick
Flint Kearsley
3.29
Gerald Capaccio
St. Joseph
2.66
Jaxson Wilson
Hartland
1.71
Riley Smalarz
Macomb Dakota
0.96
Caleb Paarlberg
Caledonia
0.95
Ty Robertson
Saginaw Heritage
0.76
Mike Williams
West Bloomfield
0.73
Ashton Lepo
Grand Haven
0.60
Ben Przytula
Gibraltar Carlson
0.55
Name
Team
All-State %
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
99
Kadyn Warner
Traverse City Central
99
Tristan Hinkley
Swartz Creek
92
Brendan Schanick
Flint Kearsley
84
Gerald Capaccio
St. Joseph
81
Merrick Hocking
Midland
79
Jaxson Wilson
Hartland
57
Riley Smalarz
Macomb Dakota
38
Ty Robertson
Saginaw Heritage
32
Caleb Paarlberg
Caledonia
29
Ashton Lepo
Grand Haven
23
Mike Williams
West Bloomfield
20
Ben Przytula
Gibraltar Carlson
18
James Livingston
Dexter
13
Finnian McLenaghan
Detroit Catholic Central
13
Name
Team
Win %
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
50
Kadyn Warner
Traverse City Central
33
Tristan Hinkley
Swartz Creek
15
Boys Discus
Rochester Adams’ Mohammad Murray clinched a Regional victory for the Highlanders with a 13′ season best on his final discus toss. That toss also clinched a state meet berth for himself.
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Jake Steslicki
Farmington
8.47
Merrick Hocking
Midland
5.04
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
2.94
Ashton Lepo
Grand Haven
2.72
Ty Robertson
Saginaw Heritage
2.60
Ashton Koebke
Swartz Creek
2.57
Teegan Simmons
Monroe
2.06
Garrison Stehr
Highland-Milford
1.87
Skye VanderKuyl
Zeeland West
1.66
Preston Johnston
Novi
1.55
Brayden Richard
Monroe
1.46
Carter Kruse
Warren DeLaSalle
1.46
Mike Williams
West Bloomfield
0.98
Carlo Aybar
Caledonia
0.95
Cameron Bloom
Novi
0.80
Michael Waring
Utica
0.62
Name
Team
All-State %
Jake Steslicki
Farmington
97
Merrick Hocking
Midland
87
Ashton Lepo
Grand Haven
62
Ashton Koebke
Swartz Creek
58
Ty Robertson
Saginaw Heritage
53
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
52
Teegan Simmons
Monroe
52
Preston Johnston
Novi
51
Garrison Stehr
Highland-Milford
48
Skye VanderKuyl
Zeeland West
44
Brayden Richard
Monroe
39
Carter Kruse
Warren DeLaSalle
30
Cameron Bloom
Novi
26
Mike Williams
West Bloomfield
22
Carlo Aybar
Caledonia
20
Michael Waring
Utica
14
Nate Pluger
Utica Ford
14
Hunter Harding
Brighton
11
Name
Team
Win %
Jake Steslicki
Farmington
64
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
10
Merrick Hocking
Midland
5
Ashton Koebke
Swartz Creek
5
Carter Kruse
Warren DeLaSalle
5
Girls Shot Put
Grosse Pointe North’s Ava Hopko won both the Shot Put and Discus over in Region 6. Her discus throw was a 13′ personal best.
I wish I could tell this grand tale of how I’ve been planning to write these through the entire winter, how I’ve done my research, received all sorts of anecdotes. But in all honesty, this idea came to me last week and I think it’ll be good. Different, jarring, and never before seen in my analyses.
The original thought was to grab everyone’s best mark throughout the season and find the expected number of points generated from past athletes who have hit that mark. You’ll see this in other sports, for example, if a football team gets the ball on the 38-yard line, there’s an expected number of points they’ll attain on that possession. The downside of solely relying on someone’s PR is that they may be inconsistent. If you have a thrower whose best toss is 60’, but the rest of their throws are between 45’-50’, they’ll be ranked above someone who always throws 59’. But the 59’ thrower will likely win given their reliability.
One could take the above scenario and come to that conclusion via their personal thoughts. That’s never been a favorite of mine. What am I gonna do, predict a kid to win based on my own opinion? I can see that for pro athletes, but not high schoolers. Could it be done through a blend between numbers and subjectivity? Perhaps, but those blurred lines make it difficult for a coach, kid, or parent to discern the difference. And while these previews and rankings may cause dismay and spark motivation, it’s important to know they’re all number-based, taken from the times and marks posted this season.
After laying down the foundation for what I’m NOT doing, what the heck are these? This is something I’ve always wanted to perform – a Monte Carlo Simulation. What’s that? I’ll just quote the GOAT, TullyRunners:
Essentially what’s being done is I’m taking everyone’s results this track season, getting their mean times/marks, the standard deviation of those times/marks, then letting the computer generate random times/marks given the mean/stdev. From there, running 100 simulations of each event to generate the average amount of points to expect, an All-State %, and a Win %. Ideally, I’d run 10,000+ simulations but given 17 events across 4 divisions and 2 genders, I’m just looking to finish the damn thing.
I will cut off the expected points and percentages by a certain mark. I’m not about telling a kid they have no shot of scoring points or attaining All-State. Some of the numbers generated indicated those figures but this is the case where I’ll go against them – if you’re in the competition, you have a chance. I believe these will be a great indicator of the overall team scores, but I have no evidence for that, we’ll see come June 4th.
With the number of ties in the vault and high jump, I won’t do these, but for other events, I plan on laying down tables to show head-to-head matchups throughout the season. I’ll also look to create a few graphs of athletes that may be underrated in the simulations, by way of a great late season peak compared to their early season performances. I haven’t decided if I’ll do that after these are done or throughout each and every post. Finally, I posed a question on the Michigan Track/Cross Country Coaches FB group asking if a coach had athletes that greatly outperformed their seed at Regionals or have battled adversity on the path to a breakthrough. Quite a few responses and messages, as a result, interspersed throughout these posts will be shoutouts to kids. Of course, if you want to send me info on an athlete via twitter/IG/FB/email, I’m always game.
The thought behind starting with Pole Vault is that I feel it’ll have the least number of scratches. Same with the other field events. Distance events and relays most likely have the most, so I’ll get to those at the end. And relays have the added bonus of different lineups throughout the year, so I’m still uncertain on how to approach those events. I’ll be posting these throughout the next 10 days. Alas, here we are, your Pole Vault Preview. Hope you enjoy!
A few more individual notes:
Boys are listed first, being that they’re running first in 2022.
These will be listed from Division 4 first to Division 1 last. Gotta get eyes on the lower division that they might not normally receive
The order for posts will be Vault, Throws, Jumps, Hurdles, Sprints, Distance, Relays.
The vault here is through this weekend’s meets.
The reason I’m spreading these out over the next 10 days is two-fold. First, no one will read the entirety of a 20 page post on all events. Second, increase the hype and attention toward all events!
For running events, I’ll be using FAT times only for sprints and hurdles, and all wind conditions. There just aren’t enough samples of wind-legal times. Hopefully this will be rectified in the coming years.
I really wish there were more CONTENT and stories, but I haven’t established those relationships with areas other than distance. I do encourage media members to write about the other events!
Division Four
Boys
This is a show of someone’s average place/score. For instance, if an athlete has a 50% chance of winning, 25% chance of finishing 2nd, and 25% chance of finishing 3rd, their average place would be 1.75. Their average score would be 8.5.
Name
Team
Avg. Score
TJ Brink
Akron-Fairgrove
6.28
Isaac Bowden
McBain Northern Michigan Christian
5.93
Brayden Clark
Carson City-Crystal
4.75
William Brown
Deckerville
4.73
Isiah Biers
Coleman
3.84
Steven Martin
Britton Deerfield
3.15
Logan Malloy
Marlette
2.15
Drew Armbrustmacher
Fowler
1.28
Joel McKay
Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
1.24
Tyler Izydorek
Marlette
0.93
Kaleb Spahr
Pittsford
0.84
Wyatt Wesley
Morrice
0.79
Trace Juergens
Fairview
0.75
Drake Buell
Martin
0.64
This is an athlete’s %chance of finishing in the Top 8.
Name
Team
All-State %
Isaac Bowden
McBain Northern Michigan Christian
99
TJ Brink
Akron-Fairgrove
97
William Brown
Deckerville
95
Isiah Biers
Coleman
69
Brayden Clark
Carson City-Crystal
68
Logan Malloy
Marlette
65
Steven Martin
Britton Deerfield
63
Tyler Izydorek
Marlette
35
Drew Armbrustmacher
Fowler
30
Joel McKay
Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
28
Trace Juergens
Fairview
24
Wyatt Wesley
Morrice
22
Kaleb Spahr
Pittsford
20
Nathan Lott
Webberville
19
Drake Buell
Martin
17
Kable Miller
Coleman
12
Cooper Bolton
Montabella
11
This is an athlete’s %chance of winning the whole thing.
A team must have 3 athletes in both the Shot and Disc
The times from those athletes must be from the 2022 Outdoor Season, with the girls deadline being Tuesday night and boys Wednesday night.
Those top 3 athletes from an event have their throws averaged out, then those averages are ranked from the longest distance to the shortest distance (with ties going towards those with the better time on their 3rd thrower)
Those ranks are then added together across the two events with the better-ranked teams having the lowest total
In the case of any ties, in the overall standings, I went with the team that had the stronger of their worst category. In each division, I went with the team ranked higher overall
Got any questions? Message me and I’ll try to confuse you more.