The Pole Vault preview gives a good summation of what’s going on here. But basically, I’m taking a season’s worth of performances and using those to determine odds for scoring, All-State, and 1st place. The aim is to be better than just using one’s PR and to take into consideration one’s consistency.
Division 4
Boys 110h
This is someone’s average place through 100 simulations.
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Alexander Stoll
Colon
7.23
James Hunter
Holton
5.52
Cavanaugh Barker
Carson City-Crystal
4.31
Josiah Hall
Johannesburg-Lewiston
2.91
William Brown
Deckerville
2.67
Gavin Ryeson
Everest Collegiate
2.58
Nathan Herrmann
Petersburg-Summerfield
2.52
David Richards
Hillsdale Academy
2.46
Luke Witte
Lutheran Westland
2.22
Aquavius McInteyre
International Academy of Flint
1.28
Omarion Culliver
Concord
1.15
Skylar Morgan
Lutheran Westland
1.11
Logan Mueller
Ubly
1.10
AJ Simon
Coleman
0.51
Josh Allen
Mt. Clemens
0.42
Jadyn Brown
Cassopolis Ross Beatty
0.34
Charley Martin
Martin
0.30
Trace Juergens
Fairview
0.17
Mason Salisbury
Marion
0.15
Ethan Cammenga
Fruitport Calvary Christian
0.05
Tucker Brown
Maple City Glen Lake
0.00
These are the odds of an athlete placing All-State. Athletes being ranked higher here will have a greater consistency of high-level performances throughout the season.
Name
Team
All-State %
Alexander Stoll
Colon
99
James Hunter
Holton
91
Cavanaugh Barker
Carson City-Crystal
85
Josiah Hall
Johannesburg-Lewiston
77
Gavin Ryeson
Everest Collegiate
63
Nathan Herrmann
Petersburg-Summerfield
55
William Brown
Deckerville
51
Luke Witte
Lutheran Westland
51
David Richards
Hillsdale Academy
49
Omarion Culliver
Concord
32
Logan Mueller
Ubly
32
Skylar Morgan
Lutheran Westland
24
Aquavius McInteyre
International Academy of Flint
21
AJ Simon
Coleman
21
Charley Martin
Martin
13
Trace Juergens
Fairview
10
These are the odds of someone winning the whole dang thing. Athletes ranked in here will have had extremely high-level performances throughout the year.
Name
Team
Win %
Alexander Stoll
Colon
30
James Hunter
Holton
14
Cavanaugh Barker
Carson City-Crystal
9
Nathan Herrmann
Petersburg-Summerfield
8
David Richards
Hillsdale Academy
8
Aquavius McInteyre
International Academy of Flint
8
William Brown
Deckerville
5
Boys 300h
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Nathan Herrmann
Petersburg-Summerfield
6.04
Cavanaugh Barker
Carson City-Crystal
5.26
Landon Bennett
Athens
4.64
Skylar Morgan
Lutheran Westland
3.72
David Richards
Hillsdale Academy
2.85
Tayshawn Bester
Reading
2.38
Gavin Ryeson
Everest Collegiate
1.96
James Hunter
Holton
1.80
Luke Witte
Lutheran Westland
1.59
Logan Mueller
Ubly
1.46
Alexander Stoll
Colon
1.33
Ethan Cammenga
Fruitport Calvary Christian
1.21
William Brown
Deckerville
1.02
Josiah Hall
Johannesburg-Lewiston
0.95
Steven VanConant
Peck
0.70
Deven Pawlowski
Mesick
0.52
Josh Allen
Mt. Clemens
0.51
Name
Team
All-State %
Landon Bennett
Athens
99
Cavanaugh Barker
Carson City-Crystal
84
Skylar Morgan
Lutheran Westland
84
Nathan Herrmann
Petersburg-Summerfield
78
Tayshawn Bester
Reading
76
David Richards
Hillsdale Academy
65
Luke Witte
Lutheran Westland
37
Gavin Ryeson
Everest Collegiate
33
James Hunter
Holton
33
Ethan Cammenga
Fruitport Calvary Christian
32
Josiah Hall
Johannesburg-Lewiston
28
Logan Mueller
Ubly
27
William Brown
Deckerville
25
Alexander Stoll
Colon
22
Steven VanConant
Peck
21
Deven Pawlowski
Mesick
12
Name
Team
Win %
Nathan Herrmann
Petersburg-Summerfield
39
Cavanaugh Barker
Carson City-Crystal
20
Alexander Stoll
Colon
6
David Richards
Hillsdale Academy
5
James Hunter
Holton
5
Girls 100h
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Jocelyn Hall
Athens
8.41
Larissa Huffman
Indian River Inland Lakes
5.39
Brynn Mericle
East Jackson
4.47
Allison Wichert
Vestaburg
2.96
Kyla Wiersema
Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
1.83
Maddie Wiersema
Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
1.83
Alexiss Guigar
Ubly
1.76
Anna Plum
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
1.75
Rosalinda Gascho
Johannesburg-Lewiston
1.50
Ava Mallar
Pittsford
1.22
Ceana Washington
Flint Beecher
1.10
Olivia Wing
Mason County Eastern
1.01
Sofia Salinas
Birmingham Roeper
0.92
Reva Lance
Fowler
0.82
Molly Brown
Addison
0.79
Gemma Lerchen
Maple City Glen Lake
0.76
Madi Simpson
Marcellus
0.61
Lizzy Romel
Posen
0.58
Charlotte Terbrack
Royal Oak Shrine
0.51
Presley Bartley
Frankfort
0.50
Name
Team
All-State %
Jocelyn Hall
Athens
99
Brynn Mericle
East Jackson
77
Larissa Huffman
Indian River Inland Lakes
76
Allison Wichert
Vestaburg
76
Anna Plum
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
50
Alexiss Guigar
Ubly
47
Maddie Wiersema
Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
43
Rosalinda Gascho
Johannesburg-Lewiston
42
Olivia Wing
Mason County Eastern
33
Kyla Wiersema
Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
32
Ava Mallar
Pittsford
31
Gemma Lerchen
Maple City Glen Lake
26
Lizzy Romel
Posen
24
Sofia Salinas
Birmingham Roeper
22
Reva Lance
Fowler
22
Ceana Washington
Flint Beecher
21
Molly Brown
Addison
21
Madi Simpson
Marcellus
20
Charlotte Terbrack
Royal Oak Shrine
19
Presley Bartley
Frankfort
10
Name
Team
Win %
Jocelyn Hall
Athens
45
Larissa Huffman
Indian River Inland Lakes
25
Brynn Mericle
East Jackson
9
Kyla Wiersema
Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
6
Girls 300h
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Anna Plum
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
6.41
Brynn Mericle
East Jackson
5.93
Larissa Huffman
Indian River Inland Lakes
5.31
Allison Wichert
Vestaburg
4.83
Ava Mallar
Pittsford
3.22
Molly Brown
Addison
2.94
Sophia Schrauben
Portland St. Patrick
2.50
Rosalinda Gascho
Johannesburg-Lewiston
1.48
Leah Rorick
Morenci
1.41
Sofia Salinas
Birmingham Roeper
1.17
Olivia Wing
Mason County Eastern
0.66
Megan VerMerris
The Potter’s House
0.61
Alexiss Guigar
Ubly
0.60
Ava Benko
Riverview Gabriel Richard
0.58
Name
Team
All-State %
Larissa Huffman
Indian River Inland Lakes
98
Anna Plum
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
93
Allison Wichert
Vestaburg
93
Brynn Mericle
East Jackson
89
Ava Mallar
Pittsford
72
Sophia Schrauben
Portland St. Patrick
59
Rosalinda Gascho
Johannesburg-Lewiston
52
Molly Brown
Addison
50
Sofia Salinas
Birmingham Roeper
35
Leah Rorick
Morenci
29
Olivia Wing
Mason County Eastern
21
Alexiss Guigar
Ubly
19
Megan VerMerris
The Potter’s House
15
Jenna Boye
Lutheran Westland
14
Carly Hendershot
Mayville
13
Tamerah Peterson
Sterling Heights Parkway Christian
13
Sophia Peter
Dryden
12
Ava Benko
Riverview Gabriel Richard
11
Name
Team
Win %
Brynn Mericle
East Jackson
29
Anna Plum
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
26
Allison Wichert
Vestaburg
11
Molly Brown
Addison
10
Larissa Huffman
Indian River Inland Lakes
8
Leah Rorick
Morenci
6
Division 3
Boys 110h
Hans Ross, from Saginaw Valley Lutheran will compete in a number of events on Saturday. High jump, relays, the high hurdles. He’s been battling what possibly could be a stress fracture, but he endured the pain to help his team.
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Benny Diaz
Saugatuck
8.32
Corey Schafer
Pewamo-Westphalia
5.50
Trevon Redding
Warren Michigan Collegiate
5.09
Holden van Poppel
Napoleon
3.89
Louden Murbach
Erie Mason
2.10
Jack Easterday
Grass Lake
1.98
Deshaun Williams
Detroit Voyageur
1.83
Grant Wheaton
Lakeview
1.45
Blake Daggy
Reed City
1.39
Wyatt Allbee
Clare
1.27
Tyler Brouillet
Benzie Central
1.27
Taurian Dorty
University Liggett
1.26
Brice VanZant
Hillsdale
1.02
Mitchell Vaske
Charyl Stockwell Academy
0.93
Hans Ross
Saginaw Valley Lutheran
0.64
Name
Team
All-State %
Corey Schafer
Pewamo-Westphalia
99
Benny Diaz
Saugatuck
97
Trevon Redding
Warren Michigan Collegiate
97
Holden van Poppel
Napoleon
87
Louden Murbach
Erie Mason
57
Jack Easterday
Grass Lake
56
Wyatt Allbee
Clare
38
Deshaun Williams
Detroit Voyageur
37
Brice VanZant
Hillsdale
35
Tyler Brouillet
Benzie Central
34
Blake Daggy
Reed City
33
Taurian Dorty
University Liggett
24
Mitchell Vaske
Charyl Stockwell Academy
21
Hans Ross
Saginaw Valley Lutheran
20
Grant Wheaton
Lakeview
18
Trace Englemann
Caro
16
Logan Miles
Bad Axe
13
Name
Team
Win %
Benny Diaz
Saugatuck
61
Grant Wheaton
Lakeview
11
Trevon Redding
Warren Michigan Collegiate
6
Deshaun Williams
Detroit Voyageur
5
Boys 300h
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Benny Diaz
Saugatuck
8.37
Corey Schafer
Pewamo-Westphalia
6.34
Trevon Redding
Warren Michigan Collegiate
4.74
Sean DeLeon
Adrian Madison
4.71
Jack Easterday
Grass Lake
2.93
Tyrone Brouillet
Benzie Central
2.05
Mathew Johnston
Hemlock
1.72
Holden Van Poppel
Napoleon
1.62
Colin Hagerman
Bath
1.42
Wyatt Allbee
Clare
1.39
Brad Elkins
Kalkaska
1.11
Britain Philip
Buchanan
0.83
Riley Parker
Caro
0.76
Name
Team
All-State %
Corey Schafer
Pewamo-Westphalia
99
Benny Diaz
Saugatuck
97
Sean DeLeon
Adrian Madison
86
Trevon Redding
Warren Michigan Collegiate
82
Jack Easterday
Grass Lake
67
Wyatt Allbee
Clare
61
Holden Van Poppel
Napoleon
60
Tyrone Brouillet
Benzie Central
57
Brad Elkins
Kalkaska
46
Mathew Johnston
Hemlock
39
Colin Hagerman
Bath
31
Riley Parker
Caro
24
Britain Philip
Buchanan
17
Zachary VanBaren
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
16
Name
Team
Win %
Benny Diaz
Saugatuck
66
Sean DeLeon
Adrian Madison
11
Corey Schafer
Pewamo-Westphalia
10
Trevon Redding
Warren Michigan Collegiate
8
Girls 100h
Name
Team
Avg. Score
Saige Martin
Pewamo-Westphalia
7.85
Katelynn Dix
Grand Traverse Academy
5.70
MaryAlice Lynch
Monroe St. Mary CC
4.63
Gabrielle Bowen
Centreville
4.11
Ava Harton
Clare
2.32
Mazie Robison
Saugatuck
1.92
Anna Huizinga
Manistee
1.76
Sarah Gray
Reese
1.64
Rianna Vincent
Hillsdale
1.41
Kenna Barber
Clare
1.37
Isabella Langmaid
Caro
1.20
Katie Smith
Pewamo-Westphalia
1.13
Jessica Kozlowski
Ovid-Elsie
0.82
Addison Cota
Tawas
0.74
Alexis Girolami
Lawton
0.68
Emily Zelinko
St. Charles
0.63
Nevada Gillons
Union City
0.54
Name
Team
All-State %
MaryAlice Lynch
Monroe St. Mary CC
99
Saige Martin
Pewamo-Westphalia
91
Gabrielle Bowen
Centreville
89
Katelynn Dix
Grand Traverse Academy
83
Ava Harton
Clare
58
Sarah Gray
Reese
54
Anna Huizinga
Manistee
41
Kenna Barber
Clare
38
Mazie Robison
Saugatuck
35
Isabella Langmaid
Caro
34
Rianna Vincent
Hillsdale
32
Katie Smith
Pewamo-Westphalia
31
Alexis Girolami
Lawton
23
Jessica Kozlowski
Ovid-Elsie
21
Nevada Gillons
Union City
20
Addison Cota
Tawas
17
Emily Zelinko
St. Charles
14
Amanda Cedarquist
Montague
12
Name
Team
Win %
Saige Martin
Pewamo-Westphalia
56
Katelynn Dix
Grand Traverse Academy
23
Mazie Robison
Saugatuck
9
Girls 300h
Anna Huizinga moved to Manistee from New Mexico over last summer. She tried the 300 hurdles for the first time a few weeks ago. Her consistency in the few races she’s performed in gives her a high ranking here.
Last year, as a freshman for Ottawa Lake-Whiteford, Annabelle Gapp finished 5th in Division 4 and progressed down into the high 40’s. This year has been tough many times in the 55+ range, nothing close to her prior form. But regionals was something different, where she ran a 52.13, a 2.5+ second season best, winning Region 26 and extending her season.
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