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2022 State Meet Preview: Pole Vault

Here we are with State Meet Previews.

I wish I could tell this grand tale of how I’ve been planning to write these through the entire winter, how I’ve done my research, received all sorts of anecdotes. But in all honesty, this idea came to me last week and I think it’ll be good. Different, jarring, and never before seen in my analyses.

The original thought was to grab everyone’s best mark throughout the season and find the expected number of points generated from past athletes who have hit that mark. You’ll see this in other sports, for example, if a football team gets the ball on the 38-yard line, there’s an expected number of points they’ll attain on that possession. The downside of solely relying on someone’s PR is that they may be inconsistent. If you have a thrower whose best toss is 60’, but the rest of their throws are between 45’-50’, they’ll be ranked above someone who always throws 59’. But the 59’ thrower will likely win given their reliability.

One could take the above scenario and come to that conclusion via their personal thoughts. That’s never been a favorite of mine. What am I gonna do, predict a kid to win based on my own opinion? I can see that for pro athletes, but not high schoolers. Could it be done through a blend between numbers and subjectivity? Perhaps, but those blurred lines make it difficult for a coach, kid, or parent to discern the difference. And while these previews and rankings may cause dismay and spark motivation, it’s important to know they’re all number-based, taken from the times and marks posted this season.

After laying down the foundation for what I’m NOT doing, what the heck are these? This is something I’ve always wanted to perform – a Monte Carlo Simulation. What’s that? I’ll just quote the GOAT, TullyRunners:

Essentially what’s being done is I’m taking everyone’s results this track season, getting their mean times/marks, the standard deviation of those times/marks, then letting the computer generate random times/marks given the mean/stdev. From there, running 100 simulations of each event to generate the average amount of points to expect, an All-State %, and a Win %. Ideally, I’d run 10,000+ simulations but given 17 events across 4 divisions and 2 genders, I’m just looking to finish the damn thing.

I will cut off the expected points and percentages by a certain mark. I’m not about telling a kid they have no shot of scoring points or attaining All-State. Some of the numbers generated indicated those figures but this is the case where I’ll go against them – if you’re in the competition, you have a chance. I believe these will be a great indicator of the overall team scores, but I have no evidence for that, we’ll see come June 4th.

With the number of ties in the vault and high jump, I won’t do these, but for other events, I plan on laying down tables to show head-to-head matchups throughout the season. I’ll also look to create a few graphs of athletes that may be underrated in the simulations, by way of a great late season peak compared to their early season performances. I haven’t decided if I’ll do that after these are done or throughout each and every post. Finally, I posed a question on the Michigan Track/Cross Country Coaches FB group asking if a coach had athletes that greatly outperformed their seed at Regionals or have battled adversity on the path to a breakthrough. Quite a few responses and messages, as a result, interspersed throughout these posts will be shoutouts to kids. Of course, if you want to send me info on an athlete via twitter/IG/FB/email, I’m always game.

The thought behind starting with Pole Vault is that I feel it’ll have the least number of scratches. Same with the other field events. Distance events and relays most likely have the most, so I’ll get to those at the end. And relays have the added bonus of different lineups throughout the year, so I’m still uncertain on how to approach those events. I’ll be posting these throughout the next 10 days. Alas, here we are, your Pole Vault Preview. Hope you enjoy!

A few more individual notes:

  • Boys are listed first, being that they’re running first in 2022.
  • These will be listed from Division 4 first to Division 1 last. Gotta get eyes on the lower division that they might not normally receive
  • The order for posts will be Vault, Throws, Jumps, Hurdles, Sprints, Distance, Relays.
  • The vault here is through this weekend’s meets.
  • The reason I’m spreading these out over the next 10 days is two-fold. First, no one will read the entirety of a 20 page post on all events. Second, increase the hype and attention toward all events!
  • For running events, I’ll be using FAT times only for sprints and hurdles, and all wind conditions. There just aren’t enough samples of wind-legal times. Hopefully this will be rectified in the coming years.
  • I really wish there were more CONTENT and stories, but I haven’t established those relationships with areas other than distance. I do encourage media members to write about the other events!

Division Four

Boys

This is a show of someone’s average place/score. For instance, if an athlete has a 50% chance of winning, 25% chance of finishing 2nd, and 25% chance of finishing 3rd, their average place would be 1.75. Their average score would be 8.5.

NameTeamAvg. Score
TJ BrinkAkron-Fairgrove6.28
Isaac BowdenMcBain Northern Michigan Christian5.93
Brayden ClarkCarson City-Crystal4.75
William BrownDeckerville4.73
Isiah BiersColeman3.84
Steven MartinBritton Deerfield3.15
Logan MalloyMarlette2.15
Drew ArmbrustmacherFowler1.28
Joel McKayMuskegon Western Mich. Christian1.24
Tyler IzydorekMarlette0.93
Kaleb SpahrPittsford0.84
Wyatt WesleyMorrice0.79
Trace JuergensFairview0.75
Drake BuellMartin0.64

This is an athlete’s %chance of finishing in the Top 8.

NameTeamAll-State %
Isaac BowdenMcBain Northern Michigan Christian99
TJ BrinkAkron-Fairgrove97
William BrownDeckerville95
Isiah BiersColeman69
Brayden ClarkCarson City-Crystal68
Logan MalloyMarlette65
Steven MartinBritton Deerfield63
Tyler IzydorekMarlette35
Drew ArmbrustmacherFowler30
Joel McKayMuskegon Western Mich. Christian28
Trace JuergensFairview24
Wyatt WesleyMorrice22
Kaleb SpahrPittsford20
Nathan LottWebberville19
Drake BuellMartin17
Kable MillerColeman12
Cooper BoltonMontabella11

This is an athlete’s %chance of winning the whole thing.

NameTeamWin %
Brayden ClarkCarson City-Crystal30
TJ BrinkAkron-Fairgrove23
Isiah BiersColeman13
Isaac BowdenMcBain Northern Michigan Christian12
Steven MartinBritton Deerfield9
William BrownDeckerville5

Girls

NameTeamAvg. Score
Tara TownsendFrankfort9.41
Addisyn RuddEast Jackson6.27
Grace BradfordMaple City Glen Lake4.31
Kaylin BlemasterFulton3.66
Alayna VandegriffFowler3.66
Allie NowakJohannesburg-Lewiston2.50
Kate MayFrankfort2.41
Aubree MoellerDeckerville1.71
Jessie HeiligDeckerville1.22
Savannah WatkinsPittsford0.99
Chloe FowlerPittsford0.93
Hillary HoweMason County Eastern0.69
Talan HiemstraMarcellus0.56
Carly SiciliaThe Potter’s House0.50

NameTeamAll-State %
Tara TownsendFrankfort99
Addisyn RuddEast Jackson96
Grace BradfordMaple City Glen Lake95
Kaylin BlemasterFulton90
Alayna VandegriffFowler83
Allie NowakJohannesburg-Lewiston65
Kate MayFrankfort54
Aubree MoellerDeckerville49
Jessie HeiligDeckerville30
Savannah WatkinsPittsford34
Chloe FowlerPittsford29
Hillary HoweMason County Eastern27
Talan HiemstraMarcellus22
Carly SiciliaThe Potter’s House14

NameTeamWin %
Tara TownsendFrankfort84
Addisyn RuddEast Jackson13

Division Three

Boys

NameTeamAvg. Score
Brenden EndresTraverse City St. Francis7.54
Alex BrownLaingsburg5.85
Tryce TokarOvid-Elsie4.78
Jack BorgmanLaingsburg4.61
Luke GorgasSaugatuck2.87
Chase BattaniAlmont2.77
Caleb DoeLake City2.51
Ethan WoodMason County Central1.81
Jordan NixonChesaning1.15
Connor PohlPewamo-Westphalia1.00
Aidan PaisleyClare0.80
Canaan PaveySchoolcraft0.77

NameTeamAll-State %
Alex BrownLaingsburg99
Brenden EndresTraverse City St. Francis97
Jack BorgmanLaingsburg91
Tryce TokarOvid-Elsie90
Chase BattaniAlmont65
Caleb DoeLake City60
Luke GorgasSaugatuck47
Connor PohlPewamo-Westphalia40
Ethan WoodMason County Central36
Aidan PaisleyClare31
Canaan PaveySchoolcraft28
Jordan NixonChesaning22
Alex LangenderferErie Mason16
Dalton NobleHarrison15
Kevin RobertsNiles Brandywine14
Yura RozendalGrandville Calvin Christian13
Luke KooyManistee12
Trevor BottleAlgonac11

NameTeamWin %
Brenden EndresTraverse City St. Francis40
Jack BorgmanLaingsburg15
Luke GorgasSaugatuck14
Tryce TokarOvid-Elsie11
Alex BrownLaingsburg6
Ethan WoodMason County Central5
Jordan NixonChesaning5

Girls

NameTeamAvg. Score
Ally OlszewskiGrand Rapids West Catholic7.97
Emily CzeiszpergerHudson6.49
Elly TrefryMichigan Center4.10
Teagan RussellClare3.45
Addison TrierwilerPewamo-Westphalia2.91
Annalyse AmesHudson2.33
Natalee HoytSt. Louis1.81
Catherine PondSaugatuck1.41
Natasha NowakowskiIthaca1.36
Cora BangertSaranac1.34
Anna McPhersonSaranac1.26
Kendal WaligorskiManistee1.09
Isabella LangmaidCaro0.73
Rylee OxleyLawton0.66
Courtney KalkmanReese0.63

NameTeamAll-State %
Ally OlszewskiGrand Rapids West Catholic99
Emily CzeiszpergerHudson93
Elly TrefryMichigan Center55
Teagan RussellClare73
Addison TrierwilerPewamo-Westphalia73
Annalyse AmesHudson54
Natalee HoytSt. Louis48
Catherine PondSaugatuck33
Natasha NowakowskiIthaca32
Cora BangertSaranac31
Anna McPhersonSaranac39
Kendal WaligorskiManistee35
Isabella LangmaidCaro34
Rylee OxleyLawton24
Courtney KalkmanReese19
Kelah HodgeHillsdale17
Chelsi ZylaSand Creek16
Isabell HelmanPewamo-Westphalia12

NameTeamWin %
Ally OlszewskiGrand Rapids West Catholic40
Elly TrefryMichigan Center25
Emily CzeiszpergerHudson21
Annalyse AmesHudson5

Division Two

Boys

NameTeamAvg. Score
Landon CosbyCharlotte7.95
David ConradWhitehall6.13
Camryn BattjesAllendale4.81
Sam VespermanGrosse Ile3.94
Zachary MillerPlainwell3.35
James HandrichSpring Lake3.15
William RibbyEaton Rapids1.57
Noah HumbertThree Rivers1.24
Charlie DrnekZeeland East1.13
Robby SlaughterHastings0.95
Nico LopezShepherd0.94
Luke KecskesYale0.71
Jacob FenbertDundee0.68
Gabe HutchinsNorth Branch0.52
Logan KlingeHopkins0.51

NameTeamAll-State %
Landon CosbyCharlotte97
James HandrichSpring Lake90
Camryn BattjesAllendale86
David ConradWhitehall85
Sam VespermanGrosse Ile77
Zachary MillerPlainwell74
Charlie DrnekZeeland East45
William RibbyEaton Rapids38
Noah HumbertThree Rivers34
Nico LopezShepherd34
Robby SlaughterHastings28
Luke KecskesYale21
Gabe HutchinsNorth Branch17
Ryan MorrenAllendale16
Jacob FenbertDundee14
Logan KlingeHopkins13

NameTeamWin %
Landon CosbyCharlotte51
David ConradWhitehall25
Camryn BattjesAllendale8
Sam VespermanGrosse Ile6

Girls

NameTeamAvg. Score
Jordyn WrightTecumseh6.47
Claire AgnewOwosso5.45
Allison SheltonOrtonville Brandon4.45
Madison PatenFrankenmuth4.41
Katie SeinenHudsonville Unity Christian3.14
Rowan CebulskiGrand Rapids Christian2.14
Libby SummerlandOwosso2.07
Emmalee SpringerBelding1.37
Kirsten KrauseBerrien Springs1.21
Kati SmithKingsley1.09
Gracie WarnerShepherd1.08
Hannah NienhuisZeeland East1.07
Mallaigh PhelanStevensville Lakeshore0.88
Allison TeedHastings0.81
Rylee SluiterZeeland East0.75
Kelsey SaxtonKingsley0.74
Kenzie MeyerAllendale0.65

NameTeamAll State %
Jordyn WrightTecumseh92
Claire AgnewOwosso87
Katie SeinenHudsonville Unity Christian74
Madison PatenFrankenmuth72
Allison SheltonOrtonville Brandon67
Rowan CebulskiGrand Rapids Christian48
Emmalee SpringerBelding47
Libby SummerlandOwosso47
Kirsten KrauseBerrien Springs32
Hannah NienhuisZeeland East31
Gracie WarnerShepherd30
Kati SmithKingsley30
Allison TeedHastings23
Mallaigh PhelanStevensville Lakeshore23
Kelsey SaxtonKingsley21
Rylee SluiterZeeland East19
Kaylee SmithMarysville16
Kenzie MeyerAllendale15
Lilly KentzlerBattle Creek Harper Creek11

NameTeamWin %
Jordyn WrightTecumseh29
Claire AgnewOwosso21
Allison SheltonOrtonville Brandon21
Madison PatenFrankenmuth11
Libby SummerlandOwosso5

Division One

Boys

NameTeamAvg. Score
Cole SheldonDexter7.90
Dolan GonzalesSaline6.61
Adam BlueGrand Ledge5.87
Ethan LingleTemperance Bedford4.15
Joey BonacciJenison2.76
Mason PowersCaledonia2.35
Floyd TuckerEast Kentwood2.12
Ray WeatheringtonWalled Lake Central1.43
Gavin WhiteBattle Creek Lakeview1.15
Liam KinneyBrighton1.03
Simon GriemertWalled Lake Northern0.69
Clark SheldonDexter0.62
Gabe WhiteCedar Springs0.50

NameTeamAll-State %
Adam BlueGrand Ledge99
Cole SheldonDexter99
Dolan GonzalesSaline93
Ethan LingleTemperance Bedford81
Floyd TuckerEast Kentwood70
Mason PowersCaledonia65
Joey BonacciJenison63
Ray WeatheringtonWalled Lake Central42
Gavin WhiteBattle Creek Lakeview29
Liam KinneyBrighton28
Nicholas DembinskiNovi20
Clark SheldonDexter19
Simon GriemertWalled Lake Northern18
Gabe WhiteCedar Springs16
Joey PelletierMidland15
Malik EisemannSaline12
Wilson TschirhartHolly12

NameTeamWin %
Cole SheldonDexter48
Dolan GonzalesSaline32

Girls

NameTeamAvg. Score
Sophia MettesDexter7.24
Brooke BowersForest Hills Central4.90
Natalie BlakeHolland West Ottawa4.76
Lilly KnowltonPort Huron Northern2.77
Livia PerelliCanton2.61
Kayla HintzHolland West Ottawa2.53
Taylor DiemondCedar Springs2.47
Liliane AittamaSouth Lyon East2.41
Sam EbbertSt. Joseph1.88
Kianna TuckerOkemos1.53
Jacki KolanoSaline1.09
Erica AlbrechtBay City Western0.80
Alex CinzoriPlymouth0.65
Claire AdamsRockford0.56

NameTeamAll-State %
Sophia MettesDexter98
Brooke BowersForest Hills Central83
Livia PerelliCanton73
Lilly KnowltonPort Huron Northern68
Natalie BlakeHolland West Ottawa60
Kianna TuckerOkemos59
Sam EbbertSt. Joseph48
Taylor DiemondCedar Springs45
Liliane AittamaSouth Lyon East35
Kayla HintzHolland West Ottawa34
Jacki KolanoSaline26
Erica AlbrechtBay City Western23
Cassidy BowdenEast Kentwood20
Becky LaneTraverse City West17
Alex CinzoriPlymouth16
April FoxBrighton16
Claire AdamsRockford15
Abigail StauberWaterford Mott14
Molly WingerCaledonia13
Carlie KneblLake Orion12
Madison HissongFraser10

NameTeamWin %
Natalie BlakeHolland West Ottawa28
Sophia MettesDexter24
Kayla HintzHolland West Ottawa16
Liliane AittamaSouth Lyon East13
Brooke BowersForest Hills Central12

4 thoughts on “2022 State Meet Preview: Pole Vault”

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