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Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	East Grand Rapids	34	92	95+
2	Forest Hills Eastern	47	8	95+
3	Battle Creek Harper Creek	130		59
4	Wayland Union	133		39

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Aiden Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	1.02
2	11	Ryan Brinker	East Grand Rapids	2.23
3	11	Alex Thole	East Grand Rapids	3.49
4	12	Caleb Boes	Grand Rapids South Christian	5.41
5	12	Elijah Robinson	East Grand Rapids	5.45
6	10	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	6.90
7	9	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	7.60
8	11	Brendan Hoving	Forest Hills Eastern	8.78
9	12	Devin Weaver	Wayland Union	11.89
10	12	Jack DeVries	GR West Michigan Aviation	12.23
11	12	Alex Parker	Forest Hills Eastern	12.59
12	10	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	12.87
13	12	Joseph VanderKooi	Grand Rapids South Christian	12.96
14	11	Liam Hinman	Forest Hills Eastern	13.55
15	10	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	14.23
16	11	Cooper Jacobsen	Forest Hills Eastern	14.53
17	11	Davis Christy	East Grand Rapids	15.49
18	11	Jacob Montgomery	Ionia	16.99
19	11	William O’Dell	Battle Creek Harper Creek	19.38
20	11	Maxwell McCarty	Belding	19.64
21	10	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	20.44
22	11	Brian O’Dell	Battle Creek Harper Creek	21.71
23	12	Wyatt McComb	Richland Gull Lake	23.32
24	12	Davis Head	East Grand Rapids	24.06
25	12	Ryan McMahon	East Grand Rapids	24.79
26	11	Riley Shults	Hastings	25.38
27	11	Lucas Van Meter	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	28.39
28	11	Tate Miller	Forest Hills Eastern	28.77
29	12	Travis Koon	Wayland Union	29.12
30	11	Connor Griffith	Marshall	29.13

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	East Grand Rapids	23	95+	95+
2	Forest Hills Eastern	57		95+
3	Grand Rapids South Christian	99		76
4	GR West Michigan Aviation	105		24

I swear, I didn’t plan those average places from the Lynn twynns.

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Drew Muller	East Grand Rapids	1.00
2	10	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	3.39
3	11	Addison Washler	Forest Hills Eastern	4.82
4	9	Gracie Lynn	East Grand Rapids	5.00
5	9	Reese Lynn	East Grand Rapids	5.00
6	12	Sarah Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	7.48
7	11	Emma DeVries	GR West Michigan Aviation	8.53
8	11	Camille DeCola	Marshall	8.85
9	10	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	9.16
10	12	Ellory Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	10.02
11	12	Camryn Bodine	East Grand Rapids	11.44
12	12	Olivia Barabas	Wayland Union	11.57
13	11	Ashlyn Smith	Forest Hills Eastern	12.21
14	11	Sophia Lado	East Grand Rapids	12.52
15	11	Ellia Agar	Grand Rapids South Christian	13.74
16	9	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	15.93
17	10	Desiree Duque-Rico	GR West Michigan Aviation	16.80
18	11	Brooklyn Springvloed	Grand Rapids South Christian	18.71
19	12	Halle Overmire	Grand Rapids South Christian	20.73
20	12	Megan Leneman	Ionia	21.90
21	12	Abigail Petr	East Grand Rapids	22.21
22	12	Kayla Barna	GR West Michigan Aviation	23.66
23	12	Kate Laidlaw	Forest Hills Eastern	24.25
24	12	Belinda Vrielink	GR West Michigan Aviation	25.48
25	12	Madison Berning	Battle Creek Harper Creek	26.02
26	12	Neveah Helderop	Hopkins	27.01
27	12	Zariah Ozuzu	Marshall	27.22
28	10	Mackenzie Zahm	Belding	28.56
29	11	Katie Behnke	Battle Creek Harper Creek	28.79
30	9	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	29.54

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Mason County Eastern	60	73	95+
2	Frankfort	65	27	95+
3	Pentwater	104		88
4	Leland	126		9

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Nathan Wing	Mason County Eastern	1.78
2	12	Skylar Werden	Frankfort	2.02
3	10	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	2.74
4	11	Adam Townsend	Frankfort	5.87
5	12	Jackson Kulawiak	Buckley	6.89
6	10	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	7.62
7	12	Chase Snell	Grand Traverse Academy	7.66
8	11	Kaden Forward	Bear Lake-Onekama	8.32
9	11	Abe VanDuinen	Pentwater	9.09
10	10	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	10.24
11	12	Joey Schwindt	Maple City Glen Lake	10.79
12	10	Kaleb Brown	Pentwater	12.11
13	11	Luke Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	13.05
14	11	Agustin Creamer	Leland	14.26
15	11	Peter Hybza	Mason County Eastern	14.63
16	9	Oliver Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	16.30
17	11	Mitchel Daniels	Pentwater	18.31
18	10	Carroll Robotham	Frankfort	18.97
19	9	Keith Crompton	Frankfort	19.10
20	12	Trevor Moody	Frankfort	19.48
21	11	Sawyer Couturier	Leland	23.18
22	10	Henry Malburg	Mason County Eastern	23.65
23	10	Ryan Grinage	Leland	24.65
24	12	Garret Ensor	Buckley	24.87
25	11	Clay Shoup	Mason County Eastern	26.58
26	9	Cody Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	27.74
27	10	Ron Hasenbank	Mason County Eastern	27.79
28	11	Aiden O’Dwyer	Frankfort	30.68
29	9	Wyatt Roberts	Pentwater	30.94
30	11	Logan DeFour	Leland	31.01

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Traverse Academy	75	52	95+
2	Buckley	80	27	95+
3	Frankfort	86	20	72
4	Leland	95		22
5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	102		6
6	Mason County Eastern	103		9

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Aiden Harrand	Buckley	1.00
2	10	Ella Knudsen	Leland	2.42
3	12	Petra Foote	Grand Traverse Academy	2.68
4	10	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	4.66
5	9	Brooklynn Frazee	Buckley	7.55
6	12	Anna Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	7.94
7	9	Lauren Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	8.30
8	12	Julia Jones	Grand Traverse Academy	8.83
9	10	Mya Denoyer	Leland	8.83
10	9	Addison Chownyk	Frankfort	11.46
11	9	Shenoah Collier	Grand Traverse Academy	11.59
12	10	Ada Grubaugh	Frankfort	11.91
13	12	Bridgette Duncan	Leland	14.28
14	12	Ariana Rodriguez	Leland	15.96
15	11	Kendra Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	16.32
16	11	Olivia Wing	Mason County Eastern	16.92
17	9	Jennifer Kmiecik	Bear Lake-Onekama	17.79
18	12	Anna Wolfe	Frankfort	17.91
19	11	Paige Bell	Grand Traverse Academy	19.12
20	9	Natalie Brown	Bear Lake-Onekama	21.51
21	9	Kinsey Peer	Buckley	21.68
22	12	Anna VanDuinen	Pentwater	22.26
23	12	Meagan Lange	Forest Area	22.50
24	9	Addisen Harrand	Buckley	22.56
25	9	Sofia Alaimo	Frankfort	24.19
26	12	Audrey Smith	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	27.19
27	10	Kate May	Frankfort	27.85
28	10	Jessica Grant	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	28.04
29	11	Abby Kissling	Brethren	29.55
30	12	Milla Klomp	Buckley	29.88

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Brown City	84	61	95+
2	Ubly	92	32	87
3	Mayville	102		74
4	Harbor Beach	118		16
5	Dryden	120		22
6	Kingston	136		5

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ethan Green	Kingston	2.07
2	11	Aiden Fitchett	Dryden	2.27
3	11	Utah Gusa	Ubly	3.56
4	9	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	3.94
5	12	John Schoen	Capac	5.06
6	11	Connor Rouse	Genesee	7.88
7	12	Easton Jager	Brown City	9.77
8	10	Isaac Bignall	Unionville-Sebewaing	10.05
9	10	Matthew Pasiak	Harbor Beach	10.46
10	11	Gavin Helgeson	Mayville	12.20
11	10	Joel Enos	Mayville	12.22
12	12	Devin Dudley	Brown City	14.25
13	10	Turlough Bennett	Marlette	14.30
14	11	Christopher Gonzales	Mayville	14.94
15	12	Wynn Blake	Brown City	15.84
16	11	Landon Dekoski	Ubly	16.58
17	12	Andrew Vogel	Ubly	18.42
18	10	Colin Beck	Deckerville	21.91
19	11	Isaiah Helton	Kingston	22.29
20	9	Carson Burgess	Brown City	22.50
21	10	Noah Hall	Dryden	22.88
22	9	Kole Franzel	Mayville	23.96
23	9	Nicholas Rayl	Kingston	24.06
24	11	Ben Gura	New Life Christian Academy	27.12
25	11	Jacob Bulgrien	Harbor Beach	27.60
26	12	Brandon Kohler	Brown City	27.85
27	9	Trevor Klaty	Carsonville-Port Sanilac	28.69
28	9	Guy Knoblock	Ubly	28.83
29	11	Ethan Workman	Brown City	30.17
30	9	William Sale	Dryden	30.33

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Kingston	53	48	95+
2	Unionville-Sebewaing	55	37	95+
3	Ubly	59	15	95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Isabella Yeoman	Genesee	1.62
2	12	Maze Gusa	Ubly	2.88
3	12	Gabriella Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	4.48
4	9	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	4.72
5	10	Kyra Beemer	Brown City	5.57
6	12	Sophia Sanford	Deckerville	6.20
7	10	Reece Wruble	Harbor Beach	6.81
8	11	Lily Lemanski	Marlette	8.03
9	10	Meeghan Flikkie	Kingston	10.49
10	11	Alberta Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	10.64
11	11	Gracy Walker	Kingston	11.20
12	11	Erica Klee	Ubly	12.86
13	12	Abigail Guza	Ubly	13.33
14	9	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	14.06
15	9	Molly Walker	Kingston	14.75
16	10	Cambree Torma	Unionville-Sebewaing	15.04
17	10	Brooke Sonnenberg	Genesee Christian Academy	16.58
18	12	Lauren Green	Unionville-Sebewaing	18.71
19	10	Sarah Nimtz	Unionville-Sebewaing	18.72
20	11	Audrey Napolitano	Dryden	20.81
21	11	Shelby Bowers	Owendale-Gagetown	22.41
22	11	Lily Finnigan	Dryden	22.87
23	12	Olivia Peter	Unionville-Sebewaing	23.40
24	10	Julia Rogers	New Life Christian Academy	23.48
25	9	Alexandra Findlay	Marlette	25.19
26	11	Zoe Van Rijn	Kingston	26.70
27	12	Sienna Kerr	Mayville	26.70
28	11	Rhiannon Varin	Unionville-Sebewaing	27.92
29	12	Leah Trigger	Deckerville	30.73
30	12	Isabella Hinojosa	Marlette	32.81