Junior David Clemons is back after missing his sophomore year, the new version of him better than ever
He’s broken 19:00 twice, most recently a gigantic personal best at Goodells
Two of the Muskrat freshmen – Julian Walker and Owen Benidit are performing as to expectations, Jack Reyes is right outside of the projected top-20, but the key additions are David and Griffin Melrose
The Dansville score may look similar from July until now, looking deeper, I missed a key addition
Sammy Schmidt returns, also after a year hiatus
He picks up where he left off in 2020, where he closed the season with a 17:56 at Sharp Park
In 2022, he’s been sub-18 in four of his six competitions
Since the teams match almost exactly what I had written a few months ago, let’s note two individuals that are having landmark seasons thus far
Carmellina Biafora of Bishop Foley slipped under 22:00 for the first time ever at the first CHSL Jamboree, her 4th placing there by far her best finish in a league event
Rebekah Hallock has been dropping minutes in almost every instance, starting with a 25:00 at Corunna, trending downwards to a 22:07 at that old Carson City course
Ran into a few Ann Arbor Skyline folks at Jackson and my message to them there is the same that I’m writing here – this is the best top four in the State
I don’t even care what my numbers say, four under 16:07 at Sharp Park is unreal
The question that’ll be ringing in the Eagles ears will be – can they find a fifth?
Paul MInock and Aidan Hale both have progressed throughout the year, both are capable of sub-17 on the right day
As of this writing now, Brighton’s 4th-7th loom large and will work as displacers
Watch out for Tyler Brock as one of them, he’s been near the 18:00 mark for the past few weeks, though a deeper dive reveals some gnarly courses – Mt. Brighton, Possum Hollow, Forest Akers on a hot day
Far and away, Dexter is the team of the region, at least in terms of how much they’ve surprised relative to the August writeup
A few Dreadnaughts that have stood out for these first five weeks have been Annabel O’Haver and Caleb Snyder
Caleb had a pretty darn good freshman year, one you can build upon, and that’s exactly what he’s done
Caleb’s last three races have gone 18:08, 17:37, 16:55, indicating he’s found a wave of confidence, I’m curious how far he keeps going
In Annabel’s case, you can just compare places between years
Her best SEC finish in 2021? 27th at the 2nd Jamboree. 2022? 20th at the first Jamboree
Jackson? 47th in 2021, 17th in 2022
That Jackson race was easily the best of her career, smashing through the 20:00 mark with a 19:14
A few teams that have outperformed those summer thoughts (they’re really just numbers, but I’ll take the brunt of it) are the Concord boys and Colon girls
Concord of course added Cole Bates over from Hillsdale Academy
Cole had a rough go of it at their home invite, besides that, he’s been the kid that helped spur HA to a state title last fall, with multiple mid-18 runs
For a kid that’s been through (I think), three schools, the ability to adapt and keep ticking is truly special
Newcomers have made a stunning impact on the Magi girls
That could be a freshman such as Lily Preston
Or a junior in her first year in the program, Lilli Stanzel, who’s finished top-5 in the majority of her races
Other than those two, it’s been chalk chalk chalk
Kalamazoo Hackett started a little slow, breaking in their freshman girls, they were able to get acquainted enough to the high school scene by their first SAC Jamboree, where the Irish placed 5th amongst a field of D3 teams
Battle Creek St. Philip is locked right in that boys race too, no doubt helped by Owen Nofs’s massive transformation
At this point last year, Owen was a 25:00+ kid, now he’s running in the low-19’s and is a contender for a medal. We love to see it.
So much to unpack here, I have to get to a meet. I mean, I don’t have to, but it’s my day off and there’s XC in the weather, XC on the schedule.
I thought Region 15 was a close-knit bunch, Region 3 is immediate family, quintuplets if you must
Portage Central and Byron Center have been the surprises of the bunch, Amanda Williams being her consistent, uplifting self and Sydney Law, running a number of personal bests and dipping into the 19’s
Byron Center competes in the OK White, pound for pound, one of the better divisions in the state
GR Christian and East Grand Rapids duke it out at the top, but Forest Hills Nothern, Lowell, and Forest Hills Central constitute the middle section
At the first Jamboree, the order was – Central, Northern, Lowell
At the second Jamboree, a different order – Northern, Lowell, Central
The field here should be extremely similar to the field at these, perhaps the final two jamborees will provide greater clarity
And with these teams all appreciating each other so much, the 6th and 7th girls will find their roles enhanced, in this projection, Celia Pollock is the tiebreaker
Those Ranger boys from Forest Hills Central are an underrated outfit in terms of the D1 Standings
That freshman to sophomore leap is a common one, but not always the case, Sawyer McCarthy IS the case. Sub-17 in all races, personal best in his latest one
That latest one was a great regional preview, where Portage Central cruised to another win, aided by the return of Logan Begeman, who didn’t miss a beat after a month off racin’, 16:40 to 16:46
Caledonia has laid low, a strategy that has worked for the Scots throughout recent history, Jordan Domany leading a prickly bunch of underclassmen set out to add to the novel that last year’s team created
Recently, Kalamazoo Central has locked heads with Battle Creek Lakeview at SMAC East, where Lakeview came out on top and at Ottawa Hills, where they placed ahead of Lowell and East Kentwood
Gosh, Hillsdale Academy and Adrian Lenawee Christian are pretty much the same as projected
Hillsdale Academy did lose Cole Bates, but many of their top performers from last year are performing at an admirable level
Alex Richards has done a superb job of filling Cole’s role, two great races back to back at Holly and Jackson
Lenawee Christian scarily equals the projections, and these rankings cover the meets before the Cougars experienced The Workout, which always brings forth a new level of grit for championship season
Michael Allen, Javin Mericle, and Zach Martinez have all been crucial in the uptick of East Jackson and Morenci
I did take a little peek at what the D4 Girls Rankings would’ve been this week, and if I recall correctly, Hillsdale Academy would’ve moved up in a good way
The Colt girls just finished 3rd at Jackson, ahead of many D3 teams, ahead of many RANKED D3 teams
All of their top 5 achieved a season or personal best, girls such as Ruth Brownlee knocking almost a minute off their previous best.
That jump from 21:00 to 20:15 will encompass a ton of the pack at a State Meet
Addison has moved into the 3rd spot, only fitting with an extra little presence on their shoulder during races
Stephanie Hernandez has done her thing up front, already racing faster than her State Finals effort from last year
Hanover-Horton and Jackson Lumen Christi just do it year after year
It’s not just having the lead runners such as Madison Osterberg and Rogan Melling, it’s about bringing Macy Fazekas and Zach Hassenzahl into the sport, it’s about developing Austin Brown and Gabrielle Osterberg
Last fall, Gabrielle ran 25:16 at Michigan Catholic, this fall a 21:19
Jackson, she progressed from 21:22 to 20:42
Austin was above 19:00 for much of his first three years, he’s now developed into much more – running in the 17’s or faster each and every time out
Leslie owes much of their 2nd place projection to junior Erik Dexter, who just finished the race of his life, a 19:04 at this very course. For perspective, his freshman year ended after two races, the best of those two was a 25:02
The Girls Top 3 is undoubtedly one of the stronger regional trios in the State, even within that, Onsted is running much faster than expected
Of course, Emmry Ross plays a role, looking like a potential State Champion with each succeeding race
Standing out to me over the weekend were her unrelenting even splits, by my watch, sticking close to 5:40 all throughout, running alone the entire way
Their greater influencers in the scoring are Allyson Robarge and Allie England, this weekend each running significant PB’s on Jackson’s South Side
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 