2021 Ratings: Cadillac

I was asked by Coach Thiebaut what he thought the rating might be, or how I might go about obtaining the right number.

Here’s a little snapshot of the method I’ve primarily been using this season.

On the left are the girls that ran at Cadillac today. Their times, their schools, but the main component is the seconds they ran in the race, in Column E. On the right are those same runners, with their overall rating for the season in Column L and that rating converted to seconds in Column M. In the middle, Column J is the difference between M and E.

This is a graph of that middle column, sorted from the lowest difference (between their rating and what they ran today) and the highest difference. The goal now is to find the straightest part of the line before you see much difference in verticality. By my eyes, that appears to be the part circled. Taking the average data points in the circled spot, girls tended to run 15 seconds faster than their rating so far this year. So the girls adjustment here is +15.

A common misconception (which is probably egged on by me stirring the pot, not that I’d ever do that), is that a positive number here means a course is short. I prefer the term “ran fast”. A course can run fast on a day, aided by a number of factors: great conditions, aggressive racing, good footing, etc. The distance itself plays a role, but this is cross country. Courses will be 2.9, 3.107, 3.15, 3.0001, 2.99, but all runners are running on the same course that day, and their times on that day will determine the adjustment needed. I’m just trying to compare across the state, across different days. Next week, it could be 80 deg., the following week, 32 and freezing rain. The ratings hope to make up for our volatile Michigan weather.

Girls Adjustment: +15
Boys Adjustment: +19

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
10	Mylie Kelly	18:19.4	Benzie Central	148.5
10	Aiden Harrand	18:28.5	Buckley	145.5
11	Hannah Pricco	18:35.1	Lansing Catholic	143.3
12	Whitney Farrell	18:58.7	Freeland	135.4
12	Mara Longenecker	19:00.7	Freeland	134.8
11	CC Jones	19:05.5	Lansing Catholic	133.2
10	Tessa Roe	19:11.4	Lansing Catholic	131.2
12	Leanne Krombeen	19:49.5	Grandville Calvin Christian	118.5
9	Allison Nobis	19:58.3	Clare	115.6
9	Landrey Kuhn	19:59.6	Freeland	115.1
12	Elise Johnson	20:00.6	Benzie Central	114.8
11	Ariel Warner	20:12.1	Shepherd	111.0
12	Carly Judge	20:22.1	Shepherd	107.6
12	Molly Harding	20:23.5	Manton	107.2
11	Regan Hill	20:24.0	Cadillac	107.0
11	Elle Himebaugh	20:28.7	Shepherd	105.4
11	Kaylee Locke	20:37.2	Beal City	102.6
11	Eleanor Cool	20:40.1	Cadillac	101.6
12	Hattie Veenkant	20:48.9	Clare	98.7
10	Bella Reed	20:49.4	Freeland	98.5
11	Jolie Fisher	20:59.4	Shepherd	95.2
11	Emmie West	21:06.0	Lansing Catholic	93.0
10	Avery Mickelson	21:12.8	Cadillac	90.7
10	Paige Kloha	21:17.1	Freeland	89.3
12	Emberlynn DeVries	21:17.8	Grandville Calvin Christian	89.1
12	Sofiah Coker	21:23.1	Clare	87.3
11	Chloe Colton	21:23.4	Manton	87.2
10	Madison Morris	21:29.7	Manton	85.1
12	Paige Walters	21:31.2	Shepherd	84.6
12	Allyson Harvey	21:32.4	Freeland	84.2
9	Gracie Warner	21:33.6	Shepherd	83.8
9	Kaleigh Swiger	21:34.8	Cadillac	83.4
12	Reese Ensing	21:37.0	McBain	82.7
10	Marisa Mazza	21:40.1	Cadillac	81.6
12	Morgan Howell	21:44.8	Manton	80.1
12	Rachal Weber	21:48.3	Beal City	78.9
11	Elizabeth Rigling	21:53.1	Leroy Pine River	77.3
12	Lilly Bailey	21:57.0	Shepherd	76.0
12	Hailey Prokop	21:58.9	Lansing Catholic	75.4
12	Hailey Wanstead	22:00.9	Leroy Pine River	74.7
12	Hayley VanWagoner	22:01.6	Benzie Central	74.5
11	Carley Lynch	22:01.9	Shepherd	74.4
10	Lauren Jousma	22:05.0	Grandville Calvin Christian	73.3
11	Ella Gaylord	22:06.0	Benzie Central	73.0
10	Madison Gimmey	22:06.7	Shepherd	72.8
12	Abby Leigh	22:07.6	Clare	72.5
11	Hadyn Armstrong	22:11.9	Beal City	71.0
10	Cali Quartz	22:14.4	Cadillac	70.2
11	Haven Vasold	22:14.4	Freeland	70.2
12	Lauren Staal	22:15.7	Grandville Calvin Christian	69.8
10	Madisyn Lundquist	22:19.2	Cadillac	68.6
12	Maya Musgrave	22:22.0	Benzie Central	67.7
9	Jenna Kowalski	22:29.2	Freeland	65.3
10	Tessa Wohlschlegel	22:29.4	Beaverton	65.2
9	Ava Iverson	22:31.8	Benzie Central	64.4
12	Haley Bendele	22:37.0	Shepherd	62.7
9	Reganne Stahl	22:45.4	Manton	59.9
12	Emma Seemann	22:49.4	Freeland	58.5
10	Andrea Feldpausch	22:50.7	White Cloud	58.1
9	Taylor Seibt	22:53.8	Clare	57.1
11	Amanda Sanchez	22:56.4	Freeland	56.2
10	Lilly Weesies	22:57.7	Grandville Calvin Christian	55.8
10	Hadley Hilt	23:02.3	Cadillac	54.2
12	Isabel Schroeder	23:06.3	Clare	52.9
10	Baylie Eisenga	23:06.6	McBain	52.8
11	Amanda Hill	23:06.9	Leroy Pine River	52.7
10	Amelia Schihl	23:10.9	McBain	51.4
9	Kennedi Wahmhoff	23:11.5	Manton	51.2
12	Grace Wolf	23:12.1	Shepherd	51.0
11	Mikehlah Gimmey	23:21.3	Shepherd	47.9
11	India Doerr	23:23.2	Lansing Catholic	47.3
9	Lola Bryce	23:25.5	Grandville Calvin Christian	46.5
10	Abbie Buteyn	23:27.2	Grandville Calvin Christian	45.9
9	Megan Schulte	23:31.0	Lansing Catholic	44.7
9	Nora Grossnickle	23:32.7	Benzie Central	44.1
10	Cambrie Lawrence	23:32.8	Benzie Central	44.1
11	Jersey Johnson	23:39.6	Leroy Pine River	41.8
10	Bailey Seibt	23:40.8	Clare	41.4
12	Allie Boyd	23:45.6	Clare	39.8
9	Chelsi Eisenga	23:46.1	McBain	39.6
11	Hadley Saylor	23:48.4	Manton	38.9
12	Nora Coffey	23:50.8	Lansing Catholic	38.1
10	Kara Forsberg	23:52.0	Clare	37.7
11	Ellie Sickles	23:53.0	Shepherd	37.3
10	Lily Ward	23:53.7	Clare	37.1
12	Lydia Sterly	23:57.7	Leroy Pine River	35.8
9	Catherine Taft	23:59.9	Clare	35.0
9	Ashley Alto	24:00.3	Cadillac	34.9
10	Rowan Ensing	24:06.8	McBain	32.7
11	Kiara Edwards	24:20.2	White Cloud	28.3
12	Grace Wahr	24:22.8	Manton	27.4
10	Hanah Johnson	24:23.0	Cadillac	27.3
12	Lindsey Dip	24:24.0	Grandville Calvin Christian	27.0
10	Haylee Groen	24:24.5	Cadillac	26.8
11	Elaine Kutas	24:45.0	Lansing Catholic	20.0
11	Lilly Backus	24:45.4	Beal City	19.9
10	Fiona Kline	24:47.7	McBain	19.1
10	Kiera Harsh	24:49.1	Beal City	18.6
12	Erin Collier	24:49.3	Freeland	18.6
10	Megan Veitengruber	24:50.8	Clare	18.1
12	Lily Nitz	24:51.1	Freeland	18.0
9	Hayden Swartz	24:54.8	Freeland	16.7
11	Simone Kaechele	24:58.4	Clare	15.5
9	Kaitlyn Pfeffer	24:58.9	Lansing Catholic	15.4
9	Alisia Pedrin	25:03.3	Cadillac	13.9
9	Genesis Wilson	25:04.0	McBain	13.7
9	Kendra Fouts	25:08.8	Clare	12.1
9	Leah Fisk	25:19.8	Cadillac	8.4
10	Genevieve Pappas	25:26.5	Beal City	6.2
9	Baylee Richardson	25:34.0	Cadillac	3.7
12	Courtney LaClair	25:35.2	White Cloud	3.3
10	Sasha Seegobin	25:37.9	Freeland	2.4
11	Kierstin Fouts	25:43.0	Clare	0.7

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
11	Hunter Jones	15:14.4	Benzie Central	208.9
11	Braydon Honsinger	15:51.4	Freeland	196.5
12	Noah Morrow	15:54.4	Manton	195.5
9	TJ Hansen	16:09.7	Freeland	190.4
12	Jacob Wurtzel	16:22.5	Freeland	186.2
12	Josh Otten	16:27.0	Lansing Catholic	184.7
11	Nathan Jenkins	16:28.3	Grandville Calvin Christian	184.2
10	Brad White	16:42.7	Clare	179.4
12	Logan Manion	16:46.0	Grandville Calvin Christian	178.3
12	David Pruder	16:50.4	Lansing Catholic	176.9
10	Nolan Nixon	17:08.1	Cadillac	171.0
11	Braden Klein	17:10.1	Freeland	170.3
12	Cameron Haraburda	17:12.3	Lansing Catholic	169.6
12	Dan Kehoe	17:16.1	Grandville Calvin Christian	168.3
11	Ben Wertz	17:17.4	Grandville Calvin Christian	167.9
12	Josh Frary	17:18.0	Lansing Catholic	167.7
10	Nic Porter	17:30.2	Clare	163.6
11	Michael Musgrave	17:30.9	Benzie Central	163.4
11	Jackson Hilt	17:41.1	Cadillac	160.0
11	Nathan Ciolk	17:43.6	White Cloud	159.1
12	Landyn Cool	17:44.8	Leroy Pine River	158.7
12	Mason Cross	17:45.3	Shepherd	158.6
12	Haydin Sims	17:46.4	Harrison	158.2
10	Gabe Outman	17:48.3	Cadillac	157.6
11	Dade Allen	17:48.6	Benzie Central	157.5
9	Nolan Longuski	17:52.2	Shepherd	156.3
10	Matthew Stilson	17:52.8	Cadillac	156.1
10	Claydon Ingleright	17:55.8	McBain	155.1
11	Jackson Kulawiak	17:56.3	Buckley	154.9
11	Owen Gross	17:56.9	Beal City	154.7
12	Philip Rigling	18:04.1	Leroy Pine River	152.3
10	Stephen Fair	18:04.6	Lansing Catholic	152.2
10	Juan Marin	18:09.3	McBain	150.6
11	Nico Lopez	18:10.7	Shepherd	150.1
11	Logan Patrick	18:11.3	Manton	149.9
12	Kobe Canning	18:11.8	White Cloud	149.7
9	Coleson Cruzan	18:16.1	White Cloud	148.3
10	Bjorn Tracy	18:18.0	Cadillac	147.7
12	Ben DuCheny	18:22.7	Buckley	146.1
12	Johnathen Traxler	18:25.1	Manton	145.3
9	Andrew Elmore	18:25.4	Cadillac	145.2
10	Andrew Klaus	18:25.7	Clare	145.1
9	Ayden Barcia	18:35.9	Clare	141.7
12	Ted Bell	18:39.1	Clare	140.6
10	JJ Mahan	18:47.8	Cadillac	137.7
9	Grant Smith	18:49.5	Shepherd	137.2
9	Luke Pettengill	18:53.1	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	136.0
9	Drew Tolfree	18:57.8	Lansing Catholic	134.4
9	Miller Pomper	18:58.2	Benzie Central	134.3
10	Hudson Kiteley	18:58.5	Benzie Central	134.2
11	Carter Lewis	18:58.8	Leroy Pine River	134.1
11	Nolan Moffit	18:59.4	Manton	133.9
12	Cohen Young	19:00.2	Clare	133.6
11	Taj Spencer	19:02.0	Beaverton	133.0
10	Carson Foondle	19:03.5	White Cloud	132.5
10	Joseph Klopf	19:05.8	Freeland	131.7
12	Alex Deeter	19:06.5	Freeland	131.5
11	Braden Melville	19:08.5	Buckley	130.8
10	Nathan Koetje	19:11.2	McBain	129.9
10	Quinten Musgrave	19:12.7	Benzie Central	129.4
11	Dorian Olson	19:13.9	Benzie Central	129.0
11	Malachi Graves	19:16.7	White Cloud	128.1
9	Kaleb Canning	19:19.8	White Cloud	127.1
11	Michael Gottleber	19:20.3	Cadillac	126.9
11	Christian Ringler	19:23.7	White Cloud	125.8
9	Jack Seemann	19:25.4	Freeland	125.2
9	Sam Nemeth	19:26.9	Freeland	124.7
10	Elijah Nevins	19:27.6	Lansing Catholic	124.5
10	Trevor Dornbos	19:27.7	Grandville Calvin Christian	124.4
12	Cameron Salisbury	19:32.1	Leroy Pine River	123.0
12	Logan Mishler	19:33.9	Beal City	122.4
9	Jacob Bowermaster	19:38.1	Harrison	121.0
10	Dylan Traxler	19:38.6	Manton	120.8
10	Scott Slocum	19:39.8	Leroy Pine River	120.4
10	Victor Krueger	19:41.3	Harrison	119.9
10	Karem Turkmus	19:42.9	Harrison	119.4
12	Andrew Frary	19:43.2	Lansing Catholic	119.3
10	Gavin Kelso	19:47.6	Leroy Pine River	117.8
11	Peter Dudley	19:48.9	Lansing Catholic	117.4
11	Tomas Rampe	19:53.3	Lansing Catholic	115.9
11	Jacob Alexander	19:54.7	Freeland	115.4
12	Wyatt Underhill	19:55.3	Leroy Pine River	115.2
12	Andrew Booher	19:58.3	Evart	114.2
11	Frederic Moreau	19:59.1	Lansing Catholic	114.0
9	Ty Harding	20:03.3	Manton	112.6
11	Lucian Smith	20:03.5	Manton	112.5
12	Cole Ingleright	20:03.8	McBain	112.4
12	Trevor Joslin	20:06.8	Shepherd	111.4
9	Payton Corrigan	20:14.1	Beaverton	109.0
12	Ashton Byle	20:15.3	White Cloud	108.6
10	Kaden Abrahamson	20:17.4	McBain	107.9
9	Isaiah Mulheron	20:22.3	Clare	106.2
11	Landon Ochampaugh	20:25.6	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	105.1
9	Caidan Gaskill	20:27.3	Clare	104.6
9	Rylan Bachman	20:28.9	Cadillac	104.0
9	Owen Brickner	20:30.7	Shepherd	103.5
12	Keegan Jeane	20:33.6	Benzie Central	102.5
11	Greg Reed	20:41.6	Benzie Central	99.8
11	Steven Gascoinge	20:44.2	Evart	98.9
11	Cory Vader	20:46.8	Evart	98.1
9	Anderson Oberle	20:55.9	Freeland	95.0
10	Freddie Santangelo	21:00.1	Cadillac	93.6
11	Keagan Kailing	21:01.4	White Cloud	93.2
11	Christopher Benoit	21:06.3	Harrison	91.6
9	Dallas Chamberlain	21:09.3	McBain	90.6
10	Evan Chandler	21:23.7	Benzie Central	85.8
9	Xavier Hoppe	21:34.1	Shepherd	82.3
12	Nikolas Parks-Jose…	21:35.7	White Cloud	81.8
11	Charlie Hicks	21:37.6	Clare	81.1
9	Tim Pentecost	21:42.0	Evart	79.7
11	Eli Mulder	21:47.0	Grandville Calvin Christian	78.0
10	Noah Gola	21:48.1	Shepherd	77.6
9	Avery Bowman	21:48.5	White Cloud	77.5
9	Logan Means	21:49.5	Shepherd	77.2
9	Austin Gross	21:49.6	Beal City	77.1
11	Luke Kennard	21:50.8	Cadillac	76.7
9	Wyatt Karnes	22:11.0	White Cloud	70.0
11	Colin DeKam	22:14.7	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	68.8
12	Lorenzo Milazzo	22:27.7	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	64.4
10	Luke Piersma	22:32.2	Grandville Calvin Christian	62.9
11	Noah Murphy	22:36.9	Benzie Central	61.4
10	Braxton Keblbeck	22:38.2	Harrison	60.9
9	Nash Davidson	22:42.7	Freeland	59.4
12	Hugo Laforet	22:53.9	Benzie Central	55.7
12	John Riddering	22:57.9	Grandville Calvin Christian	54.4
11	Cadin Keysor	23:06.2	Evart	51.6
9	Eli Zeien	23:08.8	Beal City	50.8
12	Luke Thompson	23:10.0	Clare	50.3
9	Logan Hewitt	23:10.9	Benzie Central	50.0
12	Carlos Gomez	23:26.1	Cadillac	45.0
10	Oliver Zeien	23:29.7	Beal City	43.8
9	Joseph Wernette	23:51.8	Beal City	36.4
12	Tucker Vandervelde	23:53.8	McBain	35.7
11	Richard Duynslager	23:56.6	Beal City	34.8
10	Trenton Gladu	24:07.7	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	31.1
9	Zach Rizor	24:15.5	Leroy Pine River	28.5
11	Jacob Booher	24:28.9	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	24.1
9	Hogan Walter	24:29.3	Clare	23.9
9	Clayton Keysor	24:34.9	Evart	22.0
12	Garrett Smith	24:50.6	Cadillac	16.8
12	Jeremiah Niedzielski	24:55.2	Freeland	15.3
12	Cannan Morgan	24:55.3	Evart	15.2
9	Carter Peacock	24:57.3	Clare	14.6
10	Lance Helfer	25:03.1	Shepherd	12.6
11	Joseph Gandolfi	25:13.1	McBain	9.3